2008 information sharing orientation dia international fellows
DESCRIPTION
Attempt to show the way on multinational sharingTRANSCRIPT
Information Sharing & Analytics Orientation7 March 2008
International Intelligence Fellows Program
www.oss.net www.earth-intelligence.net
Words for Each Slide in Notes
Before We Begin….The U.S. Intelligence Community Before & After 9/11
Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Collection FailureBreakdown in Coverage and Language
Access
50% Less Costly
Mo
re S
atis
fyin
g
SIGINT
OSINT
0%50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation,
Dissemination
What the Czar Does…
I am NOT making this up….
Analytic Matrix for Understanding, Dialog & Action Over Time
Affordable, Implementable 50-Year Strategy for Using Public Intelligence to Save Humanity & Earth
Credible, CompletePlan for Integrating Public Information to Create Public Understanding and Morally-Sound Sustainable Policies & Harmonized Budgets at Every Level of Action Without Centralizing Anything at All
URL: http://www.earth-intelligence.net, Click on about EIN for 10-page brochure.
Poverty• Pandemic• 5 billion globally• Increasing in USA• Foundation for all other threats
Infectious Disease• Without borders• Kills rich & leaders• Prevention critical• Low cost medicine
Environmental Degradation• Changes that took 10,000 yrs now take 3• Toxicity of everything• Poisoned earth/water
Inter-State Conflict• Security Council members sell the guns• Ban on arms exports• Regional peace nets
Civil War• Corruption• Dictators (42 of 44 supported by USA)• Over basics of life
Genocide• Resource scarcity• Lifetime of learned hatreds• Israel must adapt
Other Atrocities• Child slavery• Child prostitution• By name kidnapping• Murder for body parts
Proliferation• Cluster bombs, land mines, & small arms• Peaceful energy trumps nuclear bombs
Terrorism• Cannot win “war” against a “tactic”• Law enforcement can resolve this• Too much on military, not enough on aid
Transnational Crime• $2 trillion a year• Vatican, Wall Street, USG, Mafia all are intertwined• Drug cash is liquidity
Corruption• One man’s bribe is a community’s loss of all• Open Money and Open Books can fix• Must improve salaries across the board
Fraud• Apply Tobin Tax of .0006 to all Federal Reserve transactions• IRS gets same books as stockholders• “True Costs” up front
Earth Intelligence Network: High-Level Threat Summary + Two
Breach of Trust Demands Electoral Reform
Insist on legislation passing by 4 July‘08
Agriculture• Local & Organic• Deep Root Farming• Family/Community Owned Farming
Diplomacy• Dogma kills• Restore USIA• Need global information sharing
Economy• End CEO Greed• $10/hr minimum wage• Full employment• LOCAL supply chain
Education• Self-paced Online• Apprenticeships• Team Learning• Learn to learn
Energy• Wind & Solar NOW• Portable Hydrogen• Two-way Grid• Green capitalism
Family• One job per couple• End overtime• Community Centers• Build neighborhoods
Health• Lifestyle• Environment• Natural Cures• Generic at 1% of cost
Immigration• Enforce Labor Law• GLOBAL standards•Border Patrol +25,000• National Service 2 yrs
Justice• Pardon all marijuana offenders• Wind down the prison-slave complex• Eliminate corporate “personality” amnesty
Security• Wage peace not war•Reduce the military-industrial complex• Belief systems and morality are core.• Connect 5B poor
Society• Universal service• Universal health care• Preventive medicine• English required for citizenship & extended residence
Water• Reflect True Cost• Global Manhattan Project to restore aquifers, push salt back• Regional Water Authorities (Global)
Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Policy Summary
Debt. $9 Trillion is “a lot,” Debt scales & incapacitates.
USA Insolvent. MUST HAVE a Balanced Budget 25 years out.
Brazil• Demographic power• Energy independent• Macau connection to China
China• Energy Crisis• Water Crisis• Doing well on poverty• Exporting wombs
India• Water crisis• Most complex mix• IT rich, farm poor• Merits investments
Indonesia• Proving resilient• Rich in resources• Key to anti-piracy• Could lead region
Iran• We overturned their democracy• Persians are not ragheads• Get over it & deal
Russia• Putin on a roll• Buffer on China only if we keep it European• Enormous potential• Embrace & assist
Venezuela• Populism is not socialism• Energy independent• Charismatic leaders can be ignorant
Wild Cards• Congo•Malaysia• Pakistan• South Africa• Turkey
Budget• Balanced budget mandatory• Medicare okay if go with generic drugs• Too much on spies & military, shift $250B/yr
Design• Sustainable• Cradle to Cradle• Lease don’t buy• Minimize shipping• End absentee owners• Public Health
EarthGame™• Reality plus budgets plus active citizens online levels the field• For one third of war costs, can eliminate all ten high-level threats
“True Costs”• Every product and service can be listed in online database• End-user can get true costs at point of sale via cell phone
Earth Intelligence Network: Transpartisan Challengers Summary
Eight Challengers, Four MethodsOur only hope is to create an EarthGame™ the Challengers Can Use
Affordable NOWFirst, get US to pay for Multinational Decision Support Centre and
ASG/DSSecond, creat $1 trillion a year Range of Gifts Table posted online
Third, host an annual Harmonized Giving Conference for Foundations, Governments, and Corporations, with an individual donor table online.
DSS Mission Statement
• The Department of Safety and Security is responsible for providing leadership, operational support and oversight of the security management system to enable the safest and most efficient conduct of the programmes and activities of the United Nations System.
• Observation: Information is the modern means for achieving security, both for protection of UN personnel, facilities, organizations, and missions, and for the host member states and indigenous or migrant populations.
DSS Deficiencies of Concern• Threat Risk Assessments are
delayed & incomplete• Threat Risk Assessments do not
reflect 360° UN System view nor regional/adjacent threat information
• Threat Risk Assessments do not have a well-founded directory of Indicators, Accelerators, and Triggers relevant to UN System security.
• UN Missions & individual UN agencies or forces have no integrated decision-support mechanism helpful to one and all.
• UN System has no global directory of sources with defined biases, sponsors, or agendas.
• UN System is not perceived as having an effective but totally moral, legal, ethical information system helpful to both the UN System & Host Government.
• UN System does not have safe, efficient, or reliable (constant) means of sharing helpful information across all UN System boundaries (agencies, countries, missions, locations)
• UN System information is not efficiently acquired, exploited, or shared
• UN System has no means for identifying relevant sources, softwares, and services for multinational information sharing and internal analytics.
• UN System is not recognizing information as a major contributor to security.
DSS Host Overview
• We Must Connect– DPA– DPI– DPKO– DSS– All Other
• Participating Groups– UNIIIC– UNIFIL– ESCWA– DSS– UNTSO– UNDOF
• Three P’s– Posture– Perception– Political Compromise
• Fundamentals– Food & Water– Shelter– Clothing– Education– Security
• JOC/JMAC useful model• Member Nations creating
Open Source Intelligence units (e.g. Scotland Yard) that have been very effective in achieving improved security.
Sharing Legal Ethical Information Can Enhance Security & Performance for All
Nine Pillars of Vulnerability Mitigation in UN System Security• POLITICAL
COMPROMISE
• MEDIA MANAGEMENT
• MANDATE & MISSION
• POSTURE & PERCEPTION
• INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
• OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES
• PHYSICAL SECURITY
• TECHNICAL SECURITY
• HUMAN INTELLIGENCE (Defensive Passive Counter-Surveillance, Surveillance Detection, NOT Offensive Penetration)
Information—Open, Legal, Ethical Information—is the Essential Means for Mitigating All Nine UN System Vulnerabilities While Also Contributing to UN System Efficiency in Every Organization, at Every Level, for Every Function and Mission.
Conceptual Opportunity• IOSAS
– Integrated – Open – Source– Analytical– Support
• UNODIN– United– Nations– Open-Source– Decision-Support– Information– Network
Information should be the nerves, blood, and brain of the UN System.
Mission Joint Operations Centers and Force Joint Military Analysis Centersexist now, at an elementary level as conceptualized by MajGen Cammaert.
Our endeavors will over time dramatically improve both JOC & JMAC concepts, doctrine, manning, equipping, training, outsourcing, sourcing, & analytics. Our objective over the next 20 years is to establish a global grid that makes the UN System the world’s best Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support capability in support of peace and prosperity.
Goal of the Training Initiative
• The goal of this training initiative is to find ways to efficiently and effectively navigate the broad spectrum of open source material available, and to integrate pertinent elements of the 80% into the 20% available from currently recognized national and UN sources into an Integrated Open Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) mechanism.
Open Source Information
1
2
1. Host Country National/Military Security, Diplomatic Missions2. UNDSS, DPA, DPI, Other UN Agencies, Other NGO
Three-Day PlanThursday• Introductions of Participants• Strategic View of Multinational
Information Operations• Discussion of Two Online
Guides with Links:– www.oss.net/BASIC– www.oss.net/LIBRARY
• Discussion of Current Event Information
• Participant Identification of Top Issues for Discussion
• Sources & Methods (eg NATO)• How to Create a Wiki for Any
Mission (eg30 ExpertWiki)
NOTE: This gathering has three purposes:
1. To introduce six UN Lebanon groups to one another in person for improved sharing & support.
2. To identify global online and offline resources immediately available, free, to all participants.& their colleagues
3. To begin the process, with this “Class Before One” of defining how best to enhance UN access to and exploitation of multinational information among DSS, DPA, DPI, IM.
Friday• Sources
– 24/7 Call-In Number– Eight Sharing Tribes– Source Directory– Belief Systems– Financial Sources– Subscription Sources– Password-Protected
• Methods– Internet Speed– Online versus Personal– Cultural Factors– Creating Flow– Forecasting– Summaries & Opinions
• Indicators, Accelerants, & Triggers (Share & Improve)
• Empowering Technologies– Ingestion– Sense-Making– Sharing– SILOBREAKER
• Organizational Engineering– The Boss– The Source– The Budget– The Public
Saturday• Security Risk Assessment (Training Exercise)- Brief Senior Person from Each of Six UN Elements- Establish missing Essential Elements of Information (EEI)- Discuss the needs of senior officers (e.g. Commissioner, spokesperson for UNIFIL)• Open Dialog• Challenge Questions• Specify follow-up actions for instructor and for participants in next thirty days• Instructor to develop a proposed syllabus for UN DSS open source decision support information network (UNODIN) and with help from participants, a draft UN Handbook on Early Warning, Multinational Information Sharing, and Decision Support.
NOTE: all opinions are personal and off the record.
Class Before One
• A training concept—before the first “official” class, there is always a “Class Before One” that helps develop the need, the solution, and the presentation.
• You are the Class Before One. Be very proud of this, each of you is a UN System decision-support pioneer.
Imagine the UN System as a Wealth Creation Network
Information Management is the center of gravity for UN System.
We were here in 2006…
9-11 & Katrina, then multiple policy failures
Here in 2008!
US public scared back into reading and thinking; 75K amputees, GAO declares USA insolvent, 27 secessionist movements, “home rule” up, and corporate personality down.
Critical Junctures
Public Advantage I
TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
Public Advantage II
Localized Resilience
Sustainable Reality-Based Transpartisan Budgets
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Public Advantage III
Secrets
"Intelligence"
"Protected"
Open
Targeting
Signals
Imagery
Order of Battle
Mapping
Undercover
Investigation
Privacy
Metrics
Client Information
Pricing Information
Cost Information
External Information
National Military Law Enforcement Business
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
Academic NGO-Media Citizen+
Public Advantage IV
Public Advantage VThis is the real “End Game”
Future Vision for Global Information Sharing & Management
• www.silobreaker.com is the single best tool, free for now• Sense-making tools can be applied to both their content and yours.
Organizations Fateh Al-Islam Al Qaeda Gama´a al-Islamiyya Fatah Party Show More
Key Phrases Refugee Camp Terrorist Group Martyrdom Allotment Show More
Topics Civil Disruption / Riots Democratization Land Forces Territorial Disputes Show More
Cities Tripoli (Libya) Beirut Damascus ʿAmman Show More
Countries Lebanon Syria United States Israel Show More
Quotes ...near the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared where Fatah Islam militants have been fighting Lebanese soldiers for more than two months. "Cabinet was informed by Interior Minister Hassan Sabei that Lebanese security forces have killed the Fatah Islam's No 2 in the Abu Samra neighbourhood" in Tripoli, Aridi told reporters following a Cabinet meeting last night [08/07/2007] DDI News - Lebanon announces killing Fatah Islam deputy commander The group said it was bringing the 'good news to the Muslims of the martyrdom of a noble brother,' according to the statement. "We in the Fatah Islam movement and all the true mujahideen, pledge to God to avenge our brother's blood from the infidels and the renegades" The authenticity of the statement, posted on a Web site which commonly carries messages from Al Qaeda and other militant groups, could not be independently... [08/09/2007] FOXNews.com - Fatah Islam's No. 2 Killed by Lebanese Troops
Documents matching your search Documents | Stories All (67) | News (67) | Reports (0) | Blogs (0) | Audio/Video (0) | Fact Sheets (0) Documents Sort by: Date | RelevanceWhile Gaza burns Haaretz 08/21/2007
Current Story Lebanon: Fatah al-Islam No. 2 killed
• Intelligence is a process that creates decision-support.
• It is NOT defined by secret sources & methods.
• The Brahimi Report, Military Advisors to the Secretary General, and The High Level Threat Panel all validate urgency of creating a UN/NGO global decision support and multinational information sharing network.
Intelligence = Decision Support
Orientation, Not Micro-Training
• You will learn more on your own, and by sharing with one another, than can be taught here in three days
• www.oss.net/BASIC has the primary links• www.oss.net/LIBRARY has 30,000 pages from
750+ speakers, this directory can be sorted and also searched
• Consider viewing the lectures and movies first, especially the lectures on Analysis & New Rules, and the movie on Creating the World Brain.
Analysis is a Profession
• Four D’s– Discovery– Discrimination– Distillation– Delivery
• If you do nothing else, read the Analytic Tradecraft booklet by Jack Davis, easily accessed online, free, via www.oss.net/BASIC.
• Facts Are Not Enough– History– Cultural Context– Adjacent Players– Localized Indicators,
Accelerators, Triggers– Sharing 24/7– Cast a Wide Net– Wild Cards Abound– Thinking Matters More
Than Technology
Ten High-Level Threats
• Poverty• Infectious Disease• Environmental
Degradation• Inter-State Conflict• Civil War
• Genocide• Other Atrocities• Proliferation• Terrorism• Transnational Crime
Every Mission Confronts These Ten Threats One Way or Another—
Avoid Narrow Focus, Always See the Forest, Not Just The Tree in Front of You
Open Sources & Ten Threats• Economic and social threats including 95%
– poverty, 99%– infectious disease and 95%– environmental degradation 90%
• Inter-State conflict 75%• Internal conflict, including 90%
– civil war, 80%– genocide and 95%– other large-scale atrocities 95%
• Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons (proliferation) 75%
• Terrorism 80%• Transnational organized crime 80%
On balance, open sources are more than adequate to understand and address the ten high-level threats, but the UN System’s Information Management is not.
Scotland Yard OSINT
1. Created Open Source Branch in SO-11 in 19952. This helped put more terrorists and arms smugglers in jail faster and
cheaper (instead of 3000 Euro for a surveillance team, 30 Euro for an address)
3. Unanticipated bonus: increased property and financial assets that could be confiscated from convicted organized crime bosses.
Eastern Congo
Twelve Action Areas
• Agriculture• Diplomacy• Economy• Education• Energy• Family
• Health• Immigration/Migration• Justice• Security• Society• Water
Every Mission Has Narrow Channels and Deep Bureaucracies.
Information Sharing is a Proper Ethical Means for Enhancing Effectiveness.
If Any Action Area is Overlooked, Boss Needs to Know This.
Prediction/Prevention
Self protection
Environmental Security
Retaliation
Analysis Cannot Do It All
You
EveryoneElse
1. Improve Sources2. Improve Sharing3. Improve Analysis4. Improve Decisions by
Supported Bosses
Model for Analytic Purpose
Probability
Casualty Potential
Surprise
Hezbollah, Iran, Regional SurpriseWarning, meaning, need, elsewhere
• 14 Aug 07 News Release• Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah
promises “surprise” if Israel attacks Lebanon again.
• Hezbollah has not been disarmed—15,000 rockets remain hidden (other source)
• Lebanon divided, Israeli soldiers still captive, situation is volatile
• Direct negotiations could help, truth & reconciliation
• Israel may not appreciate full extent of Iranian ability to provide supporting attacks, e.g. exploding buildings in Tel Aviv, cutting of US land supply line from Kuwait to Baghdad, Sunburn missile attack against Maritime Force.
• Israel, not Iran or Syria, is the most likely to take unilateral violent action that will trigger the “surprise.”
Probability: HighDamage: Very HighSurprise: Strikes Outside of Lebanon, Not by Hezbollah
Israel 9-11 in Tel Aviv
The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use!
INFORMATION
TIME
Actionable Intelligence
Available Information
Complex Organizations are Drowning in Information.Analytic Tradecraft, Applied by Analysts, is the Solution.
Why Analysts Are Special
Over time and space
Channels & Borders
Of strategic value
Quantities & Distribution
Internally available for use
Volatility of sectors
Training & Maintenance
Mobility implications
Cohesion & Effectiveness
STRATEGIC Integrated Application
OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place
TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources
TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities
Military Sustainability
Civil Allies
Geographic Location
Military Systems One by One
Climate Manipulation
Civil Power, Transport, Communications,
Finance
Military Availability
Civil Infrastructure
Geographic Terrain
Geographic Resources
Military Lethality
Military Reliability
Civil Psychology
Civil Stability
Geographic Atmosphere
Levels of Analysis: Threat Changes!
This is very important. The threat changes depending on the level of analysis,and the threat is distinct, more on this shortly, in relation to the UN Mission, fixed facilities, mobile units, and individuals with both fixed homes and mobile platforms.
Creating an Analysis CellCentral discovery, distributed exploitation
• Six people can leverage global open sources for an entire Ministry or Service or Command
• This reduces duplication while increasing decision support to all bosses
• Saves money and creates value that can be shared with host country and others
Senior All-Source Collection Manager
Internet Specialist
Commercial Online Expert
Primary Research
External Contracts
All-Source Analyst/ Presentation Manager
Seven Tribes (Eight)
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGOs
Religions, Clans, Labor Unions,
Citizen Observers
Media
New Decision-Support Paradigm
OLD• NGO’s Don’t “Do” • Policy Over Intelligence• Unilateral• Mostly Secret• Technical Emphasis• Collection Emphasis• One-language filter• Mistakes hidden• Short-term thinking
NEW• Brahimi Report ++• Intelligence Over Policy• Multilateral• Mostly Public• Human Emphasis• Analysis Emphasis• Multi-lingual filters• Mistakes acknowledged• Long-term thinking
Open Source Intelligence ILessons of History
I
Lessons of History
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
• Neither the academics nor the government have done well here.
• We need to fund both specialists in history, and a massive digitization project for Chinese, Islamic, other key histories.
Open Source Intelligence IIMultinational Burden Sharing
II
Global Coverage
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
• No one has the time, money, or ability to cover the world.
• We must find new means of sharing the burden of collection, translation, digitization of global open sources in 33+ languages.
• The Internet is vital.
• We must establish open protocols for linking and leveraging the other tribes: military, law enforcement, business, academic, NGO-media, and religious.
• A global intelligence federation is needed.
Open Source Intelligence IIILeveraging the Private Sector
III
National Intelligence
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
Secrets
"Intelligence"
"Protected"
Open
Targeting
Signals
Imagery
Order of Battle
Mapping
Undercover
Investigation
Privacy
Metrics
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
Secret
Sensitive
Private
Open
This Is Reality: We Go For The Green!Information-Sharing & Decision-Support
Client Information
Pricing Information
Cost Information
External Information
Secrets
"Intelligence"
"Protected"
Open
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
• Amilcar Cabral, African freedom fighter (1924-1973): Hide nothing from the masses of our people. Tell no lies. Expose lies whenever they are told. Mask no difficulties, mistakes, failures. Claim no easy victories. ... Our experience has shown us that in the general framework of daily struggle, this battle against ourselves, this struggle against our own weaknesses ... is the most difficult of all.
• Henry Stiller, DG of Histen Riller, at French Information Congress, IDT ’93: 95% de l’information don’t une enterprise a besoin peut s’aquiris par des moyens honorables.
• Tony Zinni, former CINCCENT: 80% of what I needed to know as CINCENT I got from open sources rather than classified reporting. And within the remaining 20%, if I knew what to look for, I found another 16%. At the end of it all, classified intelligence provided me, at best, with 4% of my command knowledge.
• Daniel Elsberg, speaking to Henry Kissinger: The danger is, you’ll become like a moron. You’ll become incapable of learning from most people in the world, no matter how much experience they have in their particular areas that may be much greater than yours” [because of your blind faith in the value of your narrow and often incorrect secret information].
• Ted Shackley, Clandestine & Covert Operations Leader: In short, the collapse of the communist system in Central Europe has created a new situation for intelligence collectors. I estimate, based in part on my commercial discussions since 1990 in East Germany, Poland, Albania, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, that 80 percent of what is on any intelligence agency’s wish list for this area as of 1991 is now available overtly.
Facing Reality
Enhancing Performance IData standards and sharing matter
It’s the back and forth that allows DNA to define life.
OpenHuman
ImagerySignals
• From north to south, east to west, if the information is not entered digitally and according to some agreed upon standard, it will not be shared and will not contribute to UN early warning or decision support.
Tip of the hat to the Director of the NIA in South Africa for this important insight.
Enhancing Performance II24/7 Geospatial “Plot” is Vital
• There is no substitute for a 24/7 watch center that has a geospatial “plot” and can combine a knowledge of intelligence sources with a real-world depiction of locations, vehicles, targets, and individuals.
Enhancing Performance IIIFail in Isolation, Thrive in Combination
• We are our own worst enemy.
• Compartmentation and security are the enemy of timely intelligence.
• Sources achieve their greatest effect when combined, not when isolated.
“Okay, so maybe I was wrong not to tell you about my source--but you should have told me first…...”
TECHNICAL HUMAN
III - External InformationEXTERNAL
INTERNAL
OrganizationalMemory System
DataConversion
DataVisualization
HeterogeneousSearch & Retrieval
TripReports
Churning(Rotationals)
LocalKnowledge
Expert Hires“Just Enough,Just in Time”
Internal Reporting
Vendor Reporting
Government Monitoring
Customer Monitoring
Environmental Monitoring
Technology Monitoring
CHUNKS(Intellectual Property)
PERSONALITY(Insight/Intuition)
Patents, Etc.
Trade Secrets
Meta-Data
Knowledge Capital™
Rolodexes/E-Mail
Personal Brand
Out-Sourcing ofInformationProcessing
Project/GroupManagement
Training
BusinessIntelligenceInstitutionalized
E-Commerce
Automated Analysis
Cell #
IV - Organizational Intelligence
I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work
The Big PictureFour processing quadrants
Processing Quadrant #1Knowledge Management
• Know what you know• Do not lose data,
insights, links• Integrate people,
projects, vendors, times, places, objects
• Optimize application of technology to internal information
INTERNAL
• Internal Reporting
• Vendor Reporting
• Project Management
• Data Conversion
• Automated Analysis
Processing Quadrant #2Collaborative Work
• Human Capital• Inherent in People• Who They Know• How They Know• When They Know• What They Do• Who They Tell• How They Feel
INSIGHT• Employee Brand Names
• Rolodexes
• E-Mail Directories
• Cell Telephone Networks
• Trip Reports
• Rotationals
• Training
Processing Quadrant #3External Information Acquisition
• Peter Drucker says this (external) must be the focal point for the next 50 years of innovation
• OLD: spend on bodies & technology
• NEW: spend on external information services in all languages, from all sources, all the time
EXTERNAL
• Local knowledge
• Expert hires “just enough, just in time”
• Customer monitoring
• Government monitoring
• Technology monitoring
• Environment monitoring
• Legal, ethical, open!
Processing Quadrant #4Organizational Intelligence
• Data standards• Data entry mandated• Storage & retrieval• Historical access
without legacy system training
• Employee shoeboxes integrated/not lost
MEMORY
• Intellectual Property
• Organizational Memory
• Meta-Data
• History of Information
• Electronic/Human Links
• Survive Human Turnover
Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form
Automated Extraction of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing and Converting Data Formats
Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data
Automated Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information
Detection of Alert Situations
Clustering and Linking of
Related Data
Statistical Analysis to Reveal
Anomalies
Detection of Changing Trends
Interactive Search and Retrieval of
Data
Graphic and Map-Based Visualization
of Data
Modeling and Simulations
Collaborative Work
Notetaking and Organizing Ideas
Structured Argument Analysis
Desktop Publishing and
Word Processing
Production of Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Revision Tracking and Realtime Group
Review
Finished Intelligence and Reporting
A
B
C
Processing Desktop:Analytic Toolkit
Eighteen Computer-
Assisted Capabilities
Processing DesktopNo Easy Solutions, Not Integrated
PlanPlan
ExtendExtend
ReportReport
ShareShare
OSALAT
Copernic CollectCollect
Excaliber
Topic
Analyst WorkbenchIdentifier, SIFT,
OnTopic, Labrador
GMS, AthensAerotext
Intelligent MinerFor Text
AnalyzeAnalyze
Content Extractor
Information Portal,Comprendium
ClearForest Suite
CrimeLink
I2 Analyst Notebook
**C-4-U Scout**CI Spider
**Knowledge.Works
**Market Signal Analyzer
**E-Sense**Corporate Intelligence Service
**TextAnalyst**Plumtree Corporate Portal
**Powerize
**Strategy!**Wincite
**WisdomBuilder
** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report
Groove?
EDGE?
MindMap?
SYSTRAN+?
Other CATALYST
Elements?
DARPA STRONG ANGEL?
Silobreaker
USSOCOM OSINT TOOLS• These are the specific products used now. They are not integrated.
• Collection: Copernic Pro (Internet search and download engine); Teleport Pro (Internet spider); Convera Spider (Spider -- downloads all or selected parts of a website); Inxight StarTree / Crawler (Internet web site relationship mapper)
• Process: Copernic Summarizer (Summarizes individual files); SummIT! (Specialty summarizer embedded within Retrievalware and Semio); Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for determination of relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval); Apptek Machine Translation Database (Ibase / Ibridge) ((database for analyst notebook)); Inxight Categorizer (Smart categorizer)
• Analyze: Convera Retrievalware (Data indexing and free text search engine); Inxight ThingFinder (Categorizing entity extractor, allows for predetermination or relationships between known entities and unknown people, places, things, etc.); Semio Taxonomy (Automatically put data into pre-determined taxonomies for methodological retrieval)
• Visualize: Webtas (Allows you to put data into a timeline with corresponding map information); Analyst Notebook (De-facto standard product for link product development but manual in nature— Talend Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) is better tool); Spire (Visualization application with "terrain" map view of data; MapInfo (Mapping package); ARCView / ArcIMS (Mapping package); Propeller (data linages (primarily communications focused); Intranet Brain (Web site mapping); EnFish Onespace (Indexing engine for analyst pc's
Rule 7“Two levels down” is the new
standard• Nation-states are old
targeting standard• New standard is at
the province, company, and individual level
• This is a double order of magnitude increase in the difficulty of being adequate
State Targets -- Lots of Assets
Organizational Targets -- Very Few Assets
Individual Targets -- Virtually No Assets
Rule 13Cross-fertilization matters more
• Old approach: consumer to analyst to collector to source--the linear paradigm
• New approach is the diamond paradigm where collectors and analysts help consumers talk directly to sources
Consumer
Source
Collector Analyst
Rule 15Collaborative Work & Informal Deals Rise
• Intelligence collectors and analysts will have personal “brands”
• Peer to peer networks will form quickly to tackle new problems
• Electronic access more important than physical location
Rule 18Collection doctrine more sophisticated
• FIND the data if you already know it
• GET the data if it can be gotten free from an ally or NATO or the church
• BUY the data from the private sector
• TASK organic collectors as a last resort
FIND -- free, internal
GET -- free, allies
BUY -- low cost
TASK -- expensive
Rule 21Strategic intelligence matters more
• Estimative intelligence must be restored as one of the primary objectives of analysis
• Intelligence must support preventive action (in advance of the threat’s maturing), and budget trade-off decisions
FUTUREPAST
NOW OPTIONS
Security Risk Assessment
• Political: History, Incidents, UNIFIL Vital• Media: Local, Regional, International• Security: Mission, Facilities, Units in Motion,
Individuals (Vulnerabilities & Mitigation)• Important Points of Mention
– Place for anything not fitting template– Distinguish between facts and opinions
• DIME: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic (UN needs pro-active media strategy, media play, good & bad, vital)
SRA Process and Stages –Introduction–Stage One: Programme Assessment–Stage Two: Threat Assessment–A. Situational Awareness–B. Determination of Threats–Stage Three: Vulnerability Assessment–A. Vulnerabilities–B. Strengths–Stage Four: Risk Analysis–Stage Five: Select Options–A. General Options–B. Improved Minimum Operating Standards (MOSS)–Stage Six: Make Decisions–A. Step One: Determine Priorities and Create a Timeline–B. Step Two: Determine Funding and Resource Needs–Stage Seven: Implementation–Stage Eight: Review and Monitoring
1 2
3 4
AB
C
1: Mission2. Facilities3. Movement4. IndividualsA: BeirutB. NorthC: South
Remember: the Threat CHANGES Depending on the Level of Analysis(e.g. Local versus Provincial versus National)
Amazon Could Be World BrainAll Information, All Languages, All the Time
OPG VPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Major Capabilities in India, Singapore, South Africa, Panama, Roving Collection Teams
One-Stop Shop Displaces Intermediaries & Triples Profit
360° 24/7 All Languages….UN Could Monetize Its Information
Become the Earth Intelligence Network
Tailored Decision-Support on Each Topic
Collect & Produce Real-Time Raw Information
Use Information to Stabilize & Enrich
Brazil
China
Indonesia
India
Indonesia
Wild Card(s)
Venezuela
Russia
USA
European Union
Inputs: Twelve Policies Actualized in All Budgets at All LevelsO
utp
uts: S
ustain
able S
olu
tion
s for T
en H
igh
-Level T
hreats
Solution: Abandon the War Metaphor & Secrecy, Move Directly to Information
Peacekeeping & Transparent Reality-Based BudgetingReal-world Real-time
Dollars & Sense
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
Multinational Information
Sharing Activity
Academic Expert
Published Authors
Amazon Expert
Published Authors
Coalition Civil
Affairs Units
IO/NGO & Indigenous
Practitioners
STRATEGIC VIEW
OPERATIONAL VIEW
Integrated Open-Source Analytic Support (IOSAS) within Missions & CentersEvolved into the Universal Open-Source Decision-Support Information Network (UNODIN)
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
IDEN: Military as hub does not resonate—why not civilians?
Robert: Military is “core” force, only integrated force able to move, do, and communicate. Military Hubs Key to low-cost free offline digitization and localized acquisition.
Coalition MilitaryHub at HomeSpoke at CCC
Free Online Access& Call Centers
CCC M4IS(Two-Way Reach-Back)
Directly responsive to USG Inter-AgencyDirectly responsive to UN/NGOs in S&RDecision-Support, Predictive Analysis, on Irregular Threats
Host GovtHost LEA
HostNGO
HostMedia
Host Civil• Advocacy Groups• Labor Unions• Religions & Tribes
Host Business
HostAcademia
BIGPIPE
Copyright OSS.Net © 2007
Regional Information Center
O SINTH U MINT
IM INTSIG INT
D ep uty fo r Co lle ctionAu stra lia
D igitizationTran slation
V isua liza tionAn alytic Su p po rt
D e pu ty for Pro ce ssingM a laysia
W a rn ingEstima tiveC ou n tries
Issu es
D e pu ty for An a lysisC hina
C hie f o f Ce nterS ing a po re
Deputy for CounterintelligenceJapan
Deputy for Covert ActionThailand
Political Compromise
• Implications for safety and security• Forget about “national” analysis• Focus on regions, tribes, clans, families.• Grasp history as a foundation.• Visualize competing equities.• Value transparency and integrity.• The UN System must always be perceived
as moral and free of bias.
Media Management
• Media is not just the broadcast “main” media but also the Internet, sermons, and other forms of narrowcast.
• Monitoring the media is an essential aspect of situational awareness.
• “Spin” is misunderstood as manipulation. The UN System must focus on getting its message into all forms of media, this is a vital aspect of “intangible” security.
Mandate & Mission
• The UN mandates and mission are inherently flawed for lack of adequate decision support, inclusive of a grasp of history and a nuanced understanding of all regional actors.
• Security comes from accuracy of understanding, before and during the mission.
Posture & Perception
• Posture defines perception. A lack of clear communication to every actor of relevance to the UN System is a death wish.
• Posture is a message.• Perception is the mission.• Every action the UN System takes to
communicate its goodness, its good works, is one less bullet, one less bomb.
Information Management
• The UN System is operating at less than 20% of capacity for two simple reasons:– Lack of 100MB Internet access for every UN
employee at work and at rest.– Lack of access to the 80% of the open source
information needed to be effective at the strategic, operational (regional), tactical, and technical levels.
• Information is security. Information is efficiency. Information will define the UN System of the future.
Operational Procedures
• The threat to the UN System is as follows:• Internal bureaucracy and big egos/small minds• Lack of full access to all relevant information• Recalcitrant Member Nations• Organized opposition groups• Internal espionage from Member Nations• Lack of employee training and situational awareness• Lack of focus by managers at all levels• Lack of funding or influence over external funds
• Information management can resolve all of these deficiencies.
Physical Security
• Physical security of fixed installation is the most tangible mission of DSS, and also the least important.
• Virtual security is much more important and demands total situational awareness and total efficiency.
• Morality, and the perception of the UN System as unbiased and totally for the good of the community being served, is the ultimate security.
Technical Security
• Defensive surveillance detection, and especially alert human intelligence able to observe and detect hostile surveillance of UN System sites and individuals, is the single most essential function of DSS.
• Technical surveillance detection requires both constant audio-visual coverage, and constant human and technical review of the captured images and sounds.
Human Intelligence
• DSS is best served by having the most intelligent, dedicated, and intuitive humans on the planet.
• There is no higher moral duty than to serve the UN System by protecting its missions, facilities, movements, and individuals.
• Security is not about guns.
• Security is about minds in constant action.
Information Peacekeeping #1Changing What Nations Spend Money On,
While Focusing $1T in Charitable Funding for Ten Threats & Twelve Action Areas
• Public intelligence can change public spending priorities
• Less on military, more on everything else
• Global intelligence can create global security forces and funds for sustaining Earth and Peace0 500
Health
Culture
Education
Assistance
Intelligence
Diplomacy
Military
Information Peacekeeping #2Changing When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention– More Peacekeeping– More Education– More Long-Term Aid– Less Corruption– Less Censorship
We have a sacred duty.
“Inconvenient Warning” & “Warning Fatigue” Are Obstacles.
Information Peacekeeping #3Changing Who Does the Thinking &
the Deciding on Public Budgets
® Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data withpermission © 2002 A. Jongman
• Public, not elites, must be the final judge of global security values
• Public intelligence will enable public understanding/action
• Berto Jongman’s map is Reference A--we must all support him.
Information Peacekeeping #4Changing How the World Views Intelligence
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Information Peacekeeping #5Changing the Strategic Focus
• Connectivity everywhere• Content is digitized• Coordination of
standards and investments
• C4 Security across all eight tribes--public safety at same level as safety of secrets
Information Peacekeeping #6:Creating Infinite Wealth for the Five Billion at the Bottom of the Pyramid
• Representative Books:– End of Poverty– Fortune at the Bottom of the
Pyramid (Prahalad)– Revolutionary Wealth– Infinite Wealth– Wealth of Knowledge– Wealth of Networks– How to Change the World
• Major Lecture:– “Open Everything” at
http://www.oss.net/GNOME
• Today’s economy:– Seven Trillion/Year– Focused on 1B “Rich”– Two Trillion Illicit
• Tomorrow’s economy:– Ten Trillion/Year– Focused on 5B Poor– Transparent Budgets
Eliminate Corruption– “Green” Capitalism
• “True Cost” Known• Cradle to Cradle• Re-Use Not Re-Cycle
Recommendations for Tribunal
• 100MB Internet access for every employee, at work and at home, is vital to both security & efficiency.
• Budget for outsourcing commercial decision-support, e.g. threat evaluation of The Hague (three groups: entrenched anti-Tribunal families; potential host families for incoming terrorists; and discreetly approached friendly families who can provide Early Warning.
• Establish a 24/7 Watch Center with a widely-publicized email address and telephone number with Arabic speaker always on duty even if from home.
Recommendation for UN
• The Coalition Coordination Center is immediately available as the world’s first multinational information sharing and analytic support center.
• All you have to do is get each of your Missions to the UN to raise the need for such a center which will not use secret sources or methods.
United NationsEarly Warning, Multinational Information
Sharing, Decision Support
• Brahimi Report applies• Secretary General needs global
decision support network instead of 77 libraries & isolated data bases
• Information can prevent conflict, create stabilizing wealth and possibly fund all future UN operations through monetization of information.