2008 economic update
DESCRIPTION
2008 Economic Update. I nformation provided by Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and College of Commerce and Business Administration. Opening the Door to the Future. Calhoun County Update State of Alabama Update. Overview. Member Survey Employment - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Information provided by Jacksonville State University
Center for Economic Development and College of Commerce and Business Administration
2008 Economic Update
2
Opening the Door to the Future
• Calhoun County Update
• State of Alabama Update
Overview
Calhoun County 2007 Update
3
• Member Survey• Employment• Unemployment• County Gross Domestic
Product• Housing
4
This year better 40%
About same49%
This year worse11%
Q#1: Your Comparison of this Year to Last
Year 2008
5
56%
70%64% 67%
58%
40%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
% "
Th
is Y
ear
Bet
ter"
Q#1: Your Comparison of this Year to Last 2003-2008
6
Expand # emp31%
Remain same65%
Cutback # emp4%
Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year
Year 2008
7
43%
31%28%34%
44%
37%
0%
17%
34%
52%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
% "
Exp
and
# E
mp
"Q#2: Your Employment Outlook
for Coming Year 2003-2008
8
Remain same75
Very likely58%
May or may not
35%
Very unlikely
7%
Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in
Coming Year
Year 2008
9
54% 58%48% 47%
68%
53%
0%
25%
50%
75%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
% "
Ver
y L
ikel
y" Q#3: How Likely to Increase Emp
Compensation in Coming Year 2003-2008
10
Population Trends Calhoun County 1999-2006
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
116.5
111.3 111.2 111.4112.1 112.4 112.1
112.9
108.0
110.0
112.0
114.0
116.0
118.0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
In 1
,000
11
Labor Force Calhoun County 1999-2007
54.053.2
52.051.6
53.554.3 54.2 54.2
54.6
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
In 1
,000
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *Jan-Nov 2007
12
Employment for Calhoun County 1999-2007
51.250.5
49.2 48.7
50.651.2 51.7 52.2 52.7
46.0
48.5
51.0
53.5
56.0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
In 1
,000
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *Jan-Nov 2007
13
Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 1999-2007
5.1%5.1%5.5%
5.7%5.4%
5.1%
4.5%
3.6%3.5%
3%
4%
5%
6%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
% U
nem
ploy
ed
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *Jan-Nov 2007
14
Unemployment for Calhoun County vs Alabama 2007
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.7%
3.1%
3.6%
4.1%4.1%4.0%
3.1%
2.8%
3.5%3.7%
3.3%
3.5%
3.1%
3.7%3.8%3.7%
3.5%
3.5%3.3%3.4%
3.3%3.3%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
% U
nem
ploy
ed
CalhounAlabama
15
Alabama Unemployment Rates
November 2006
State Ave – 3.6% Unemployment Rate 3.1% and Below 3.2% - 3.8% 3.9% and Above
Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations
3.4%
16
Unemployment Rate
3.3% and Below3.4% - 4.4%4.5% and Above
Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations
3.7%
Alabama Unemployment Rates
November 2007
State Ave – 3.5%
17
Calhoun County Gross Domestic Product
2001-2005 in $ Billions
$2.867
$2.665
$2.542
$2.422
$2.950
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
01 02 03 04 05
GD
P in
$ B
illi
ons
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
18
Calhoun County Gross Domestic Product % Change
2002-2005
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2.1%
7.6%4.8%5.0%
1.5%
3.7%
5.9%
8.1%
02 03 04 05
GS
P c
ha
ng
e in
%
19
Calhoun Housing Statistics Nov 2006 – Nov 2007
YTD Nov 2006 YTD Nov 2007 % Change
Total Homes Sold
1,274 1,194 -6.3%
Total Homes Listed
9,549 11,570 +21.1%
Avg Selling Price
$132,592 $135,598 +2.2%
Avg Days on Market
133 147 +10%
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center
20
69.477.6 80.2 79.7 81.9
93.7
103.5
122.2113.8
108.5
60.0
75.0
90.0
105.0
120.0
135.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Hom
e Sa
les/
Mon
thNumber of Home Sales Per
Month Calhoun County 1998-2007
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate *Jan-Nov 2007
92.5 Avg - - -
21
133
148
156154
149 149 149
138134
147
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Ave
Day
s on
Mar
ket
Ave # of Days Homes on Market Calhoun County
1998-2007
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate *Jan-Nov 2007
146 Avg - - -
22
Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility
Since 1st burn on August 9, 2003, have destroyed
• 42,738 GB-filled rockets/warheads (0 remain)
• 16,026 GB-filled 8-inch Projectiles (0 remain)
• 9,060 GB-filled 155 Projectiles (0 remain)
• 98% storage risk eliminated (M55 Rockets)
• 38% stockpile destroyed
Source: Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility
23
Calhoun County: Summing it Up
• Membership Survey-Guarded
• Population- Up
• Employment- Up
• Unemployment- Down YTD Nov 07– Nov 06 vs Nov 07 up slightly– New record low in April 2007 (2.8%)
• Housing Market- Down– Down from record highs
24
State of Alabama Update
• BLCI Survey
• Demographics
• Economic Indicators
• Education• Achievemens
2003• Other Issues
24
25
Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
• State Survey – 4th Quarter 2007
• Approximately 350 respondents
• www.blcindex.com
26
Alabama Economic Outlook
Q4 2006 compared to Q3 2006
0.0%
12.3%
42.1% 41.8%
3.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
StrongDecrease
ModerateDecrease
No Change ModerateIncrease
StrongIncrease
% o
f R
espo
nden
ts
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
Last Year
27
Alabama Economic Outlook
Q4 2007 compared to Q3 2007
0.6%
18.2%
41.4%37.2%
2.6%0%
20%
40%
60%
StrongDecrease
ModerateDecrease
NoChange
ModerateIncrease
StrongIncrease
% o
f R
espo
nden
ts
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
This Year
28
54.2% 53.6%
56.0%56.8%
50.7%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07
% "
Nex
t Q
uart
er B
ette
r"Alabama Economic Outlook
Q4 2006 – Q4 2007
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
29
Alabama Population 2000-2007 in Millions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
4.332 4.349 4.370 4.3854.414
4.5574.599
4.628
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
in 1
,000
,000
30
Alabama High Inbound State January – December 2007
Source: United Van Lines Migration Study
High Inbound
High Outbound
Balanced
31
Alabama Civilian Labor Force2001-2007 in Millions
2.15
2.22 2.23
2.162.15
2.09
2.13
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
In M
illi
ons
Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations *Jan-Nov 2007
32
Alabama Employment2001-2007 in Millions
2.06
2.14 2.15
2.042.021.97
2.02
1.84
1.92
2.00
2.08
2.16
2.24
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
In M
illi
ons
Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations *Jan-Nov 2007
33
Alabama Unemployment 2001-2007
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
3.5% 3.5%3.6%
4.7%
5.9% 5.8% 5.7%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
5.9%
6.9%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
% U
nem
plo
yed
*Jan-Nov 2007
34
Alabama Gross State Product1998-2006 in $Billions
$116$115$114$111
$118$122
$128$132
$137
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
GSP
in $
Bil
lion
s
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
35
Alabama Gross State Product
% Change 1998-2006
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
0.9%
0.9%
2.7%2.8%
1.7%
3.4%
4.9%
3.1%3.8%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
GSP
cha
nge
in %
36
Total Tax Revenue Alabama % Change FY 01-02 thur FY 06-07
10.9%
8.2%
0.9%
3.2%
9.8%
4.2%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07
Tax
Rev
cha
nge
in %
*FY: Oct-SeptSource: Alabama Department of Revenue
37
Income Tax Revenue Alabama % Change FY 01-02 thur FY 06-07
11.4%
8.0%
2.4%
0.8%
9.0% 9.1%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07
Inco
me
Tax
Rev
cha
nge
in %
*FY: Oct-SeptSource: Alabama Department of Revenue
38
Sales Tax Revenue Alabama % Change FY 01-02 thur FY 06-07
6.1%
8.1%
1.7%
4.2%
9.0%
2.5%
1.0%
3.3%
5.5%
7.8%
10.0%
01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07
Sale
s T
ax R
ev c
hang
e in
%
*FY: Oct-SeptSource: Alabama Department of Revenue
39
Tax Revenue Alabama % Change Dec 2006 Vs Dec 2007
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue
15.07%
5.96%
15.07%
3.0%
6.5%
10.0%
13.5%
17.0%
Income Tax -Individual
Sales Tax Total Tax
% U
nem
plo
yed
40
Alabama Housing Statistics
Nov 2006 – Nov 2007YTD Nov 2006 YTD Nov 2007 % Change
Total Homes Sold
55,306 52,875 -4.4%Avg Selling
Price$156,535 $157,818 +.82%
Avg Days on Market
123 123 0%Total Homes
Listed366,005 451,852 +23%
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center
41
2,750 2,792
3,960
4,5394,807
4,9714,994
2,9852,9222,875
2600
3250
3900
4550
5200
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Hom
e S
ales
/Mon
thNumber Home Sales Per Month
Alabama 1998-2007
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate *Jan-Nov 2007
3,760 Avg - - -
42
136
145 143
153156
151
141
130
122 123
120
130
140
150
160
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Ave
Day
s on
Mar
ket
Ave # of Days Homes on Market Alabama 1998-2007
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate *Jan-Nov 2007
140 Avg - - -
43
• Outlook Survey- Guarded
• State Population- Up
• Labor Force- Flat
• Employment- Flat
• Unemployment- Flat
• Alabama Gross State Product – Up
• State Tax Revenues – Up, decreasing rate
• Housing Sales– Down from record
highs
State of Alabama: Summing it Up
44
45