2008 doe vehicle technologies merit review · 2008 doe annual goals for vehicle technologies merit...

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-Plenary

2008 DOE Vehicle Technologies Merit Review

Drivers and Directions

Ed Wall

Program Manager, Vehicle Technologies

February 25, 2008

This presentation does not contain any proprietary or confidential information

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryOutline

• Strategic Plan and Goals• Planning Context• Executive and Legislative Drivers• Vehicle Technologies Structure• Programmatic Accomplishments• R&D Approach• Budget• Summary

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryDOE Strategic Plan

•Energy Security Strategic Goal– Goal 1.1 – Energy Diversity

• Reduce dependence on energy imports, particularly oil in the transportation sector…

• Collaborate globally with governments and scientists to expedite the development and deployment of unconventional energy resources…

– Goal 1.2 – Environmental Impacts of Energy• Develop technologies to reduce vehicle

emissions by improving efficiency and greatly expanding the use of clean fuels…

FCVT Supports DOE’s Energy Security Strategic Goal

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryGoals for Vehicle Technologies

Develop technologies that enable cars and trucks to become highly efficient, through improved power technologies and cleaner domestic fuels, and to be cost and performance competitive. Manufacturers and consumers will then use these technologies to help the nation reduce both energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, thus improving energy security by dramatically reducing dependence on foreign oil. The benefits will include:

•Saving 4 to 6 million barrels of oil per day, •Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50%, and •Enabling U.S. manufacturers to be competitive in the global market.


Planning Context – Oil Production vs. Consumption Gap

Transportation Oil Use

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U.S. Petroleum Production and Consumption, 1970-2030

Actual Projected

Source: TEDB No. 26 and AEO 2007

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryPeaking Oil is an Issue

• U.S. conventional oil production peaked in the early 1970s• While there isn’t complete agreement on the date, most analysts

do agree we’ll reach the peak of world oil production within the next 20 years

• Once the peak is reached, prices WILL go up, and the petroleum remaining will go to the highest bidder (or whoever has already locked it up)

• For more info on peaking oil, see Robert Hirsh’s report at: http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

• As petroleum prices increase, cost-effectiveness of non-conventional petroleum sources should improve, potentially resulting in increased production from these sources

• Increased consumption in China and India will add additional pressure on prices


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Developing AsiaLatin AmericaFormer Soviet Union

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AfricaChina

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U.S. Historic

China, with 23.5 vehicles per 1000 people, is where the U.S. was in 1915 – but this is changing fast. Passenger vehicle sales in 2001 were 860,000, in 20064.2M, and are projected to rise to 7.5M in 2011. China is now the 2nd largestautomotive market. [Automotive News Global Market Data Book, May 2007]

Global Growth in Transportation Accelerates the Demand for Oil

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryFuel Price Trends are Clear

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Similarly, U.S. petroleum prices now hover around the $80-100 per barrel range, and are unlikely to decrease to the level seen at the beginning of this decade.

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gas cost per gallondiesel cost per gallon

U.S. Quarterly Average Gasoline and Diesel Prices Per Gallon 2001-2007

U.S. Quarterly Average Oil Cost in Dollars Per Barrel 2001-2007

Data Source: EIA


Rail, 2.2%

Air, 9.0%

Heavy Duty Vehicle, 18.0%

Light Duty Vehicle, 65.8%

Marine, 5.0%

Transportation Oil Consumption and Contribution to Greenhouse Gases

Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End-Use Sector

Transportation33%

Industrial18%

Commericial4%

Residential6%

Electric Power39%

The transportation sector accounts for 1/3 of the carbon dioxide released in the U.S.

United States

Source: TEBD No. 26

The transportation sector accounts for 2/3 of the oil use in the U.S. and is the fastest growing petroleum consuming sector.

U.S. Transportation Oil Consumption


Lead-Time Significant for Technology Development

It takes about 15 years for a technology to reach maximum penetration in new vehicle sales and another 15 years for

the technology to be ubiquitous.

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryIndustry Perspective

The Auto Industry is increasingly concerned with developing “green” vehicle technologies.

From an Automotive News Editorial (written by publisher Keith Crain), February 4, 2008: “Although the United States is in a green-technology race, its role in developing alternative-vehicle technologies and the hydrogen automobile could dwindle unless there is more investment. Industry executives warned that Germany, China and Japan are investing heavily in green technologies and could surpass the United States. If that happens, global automakers will follow the technology and the money overseas, taking jobs, infrastructure, suppliers and the technology initiative with them…. Automakers need to make green-technology leadership a competitive advantage…. Universities must enhance green-technology curricula and research.”

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryIndustry Perspective

The consumer has a vital roleWarren Brown – Washington Post 2/17/08: “The new CAFE bill

has the same flaw as the old CAFE bill. It does not ask consumers to do one thing, pay one thing, give up one thing or participate in any meaningful way in fuel conservation. That, infact, is why the new CAFE bill was drafted. The old one succeeded at improving technical fuel efficiency…It's easy enough: Increased technical fuel efficiency plus cheap gasoline equals increased consumer demand for all that gasoline provides and supports and, thus, increased gasoline consumption…You can start by telling consumers the truth -- that increased global demand for oil soon will turn the car-buying equation upside down. The most fuel-efficient cars will come with higher prices, because those are the cars that will have the highest value in aworld increasingly thirsty for oil.”

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryExecutive and Legislative Drivers

• January 2007, State of the Union Address– President announces 20 in 10 initiative, focused on reducing

gasoline demand by 20% in 10 years (2017)• Three-quarters from increased utilization of alternative fuels• One-quarter from increased fuel efficiency

• December 2007, Congress Passes and President Signs the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA, P.L. 110-140)– Expanded Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)– Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryEISA: Renewable Fuel Standard

• Expands the Renewable Fuel Standard to 36B gal/yr of renewable fuel by 2022 (vs. 7.5B gal/yr by 2012, from EPAct2005)

• Fuels include:– Corn ethanol– Advanced biofuels

• Cellulosic ethanol and ethanol from other non-corn biomass sources• Biomass-based Diesel (Biodiesel) • Biogas• Butanol and other alcohols from biomass• Other fuels from cellulosic biomass

• EPA will develop regulations to implement• Corn Ethanol limited to 15B of 36B gallons in 2022 – remaining

21B gallons is Advanced Biofuels• Biodiesel must be at least 1B gallons in 2022


EISA: Corporate Average Fuel Economy

• Increases CAFE levels to 35 mpg overall by 2020 – estimated to save 0.9M barrels per day by 2020, and 2M barrels per day by 2030

• DOT/NHTSA to develop implementing regulations• Continues to allow separate standards for passenger cars and light

trucks• Manufacturers can still separate results for domestic and import

passenger cars • Flexible Fuel Vehicle credit continues at current 1.2mpg credit level

through 2014, then ramps down to complete phase-out after 2019• Fines – half goes to DOT to administer CAFE program, half goes to

DOT to provide grants for manufacturing conversion for advanced technologies

• Calls for development of Medium- and Heavy-Duty fuel economy standards, after completion of a National Academies of Science study


EISA: Other Vehicle Technologies-Related Provisions

• Biofuels utilization R&D – higher ethanol blends, biodiesel, biogas, optimizing FFVs

• Electric drive R&D and transportation electrification– leading to demonstration of advanced electric drive vehicles like PHEVs

• Energy Storage R&D – to support electric drive vehicles• Lightweight Materials R&D – for improving vehicle

efficiency without sacrificing safety• Deployment – renewable fuel infrastructure grants, retail

refueling station issues, and modifications to fleet programs

• Manufacturing conversion grants and loans – to support/encourage retooling for advanced technology vehicles and components


Greenhouse Gas Legislation – Under Consideration

• S.2191, America’s Climate Security Act of 2007• Focused on reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from now

through 2050 through establishment of an emissions registry(administered by EPA) and then capping emissions. Banking and trading programs also established.

• Focuses primarily on emissions up-stream from vehicles –fuels and vehicles production.

• Includes award program to assist vehicle and component manufacturers in retooling for advanced technologies(cleaner, high efficiency)

• Also calls for EPA to conduct transportation sector review of GHG emissions

• Cleared Senate EPW Committee in early December 2007, and sent bill to floor for debate. Debate not yet held. Prospects for passage unclear at this time.

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryState Activities

• States are also creating their own drivers for action. Many have put in place their own:– Legislation, including biofuels blending requirements

(for ethanol and/or biodiesel) or even state-level RFS programs

– Regulations– Executive Orders (such as for state fleet operations)– R&D, Demonstrations, and Deployment for

advanced vehicle technologies– Funding mechanisms for advanced technology

vehicles

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryVehicle Technologies Structure

Vehicle TechnologiesEd Wall, Program Manager

Fuels TechnologiesKevin Stork, Team Leader

MaterialsTechnologies

Rogelio Sullivan, Acting

FreedomCar & FuelPartnership

Patrick Davis, Acting

Chief ScientistDr James Eberhardt

21 Century TruckPartnershipKen Howden

Supervisory EngineerRogelio Sullivan

Supervisory EngineerSteve Goguen

Hybrid and Electric Systems

Tien Duong, Team Leader

Engine & Emission ControlTechnologies

Gurpreet Singh, Team Leader

Phyllis Yoshida on temporary detail


Advanced Combustion Engines• Low Temp. Combustion R&D• Emission Controls• Light- & Heavy-Duty Engines• Waste Heat Recovery• Health Impacts

Fuels Technologies• Bio-Based Fuels• HCCI Fuel

Characteristics• Fischer-Tropsch Fuels

& Blendstocks• Advanced Lubricants

Diverse Portfolio of Clean, Efficient Technologies

Hybrid Propulsion• Hybrid Electric Systems• Power Electronics• Advanced Batteries• Inverters/Controllers• Motors

Vehicle Systems• Aerodynamics• Rolling Resistance• Accessory Loads• Systems Analysisand Target Setting

Tech Introduction•EPAct•Legislative & Rulemaking•Clean Cities•Validation• Student Competitions• GATE

Materials Technologies

• Lightweight Structures• Metal Processing• Composite

Development• Processing and

Manufacturing• Design Data Test

Methods• Recycling Technology• HTML

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryProgrammatic Accomplishments

• Awarded six agreements to examine optimizing engines for high efficiency operation on ethanol.

• Initiated a testing activity to study the effects of gasoline blended with up to 20% ethanol in legacy vehicles.

• Awarded five contracts for Li-Ion battery development for PHEVs.

• Light-duty diesel engine developed in cooperation with DOE to be introduced by Cummins/Dodge in 2009.

• PHEV demonstration solicitation process is on-going –1st phase of proposals received by 2/13, and 2nd phase is due by 4/30.


Overcoming Our Addiction Begins with Efficiency & Fuel Substitution R&D

Research & Development

Demonstration & Deployment

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryTechnology Barriers

Vehicle Technologies Program Efforts Seek to Overcome These Hurdles

• Components & Systems– Cost – Performance– Size and weight– Reliability

• High Volume Manufacturability• Deployment & Infrastructure

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryBudget

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FY2007 FY2008 FY2009*

Engine andEmissions ControlTechnologiesFuels Technologiesand TechnologyIntegrationMaterialsTechnologies

Hybrid and ElectricSystems

* FY2009 Request includes 3 activities ($31.5M) moved from Hydrogen Technologies to Vehicle Technologies

In Millions

$183.6M

$213.0M$221.1M

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryEmphasis Going Forward

• Performing the R&D associated with Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle systems and components to support their demonstration and deployment

• Energy Storage R&D• Conducting the R&D and deployment activities

necessary to ensure that the increased amounts of renewable fuels under the expanded RFS can be used when they hit the market

• Deployment of Advanced Technologies – including light-duty diesel education and outreach activities

2008 DOE Annual Merit Review-PlenaryThis Week’s Merit Review

• This is the first time we’ve presented our entire Program at once. We’ve asked you here this week to provide us your input on our full range of activities.

• We intend to use this input to help us make decisions.

• We greatly appreciate your commitment of time to help us.

THANK YOU

2008 doe vehicle technologies merit review · 2008 doe annual goals for vehicle technologies merit...

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