2008 - building software: an artful science [ppt]
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- Michael Hogarth, MD
- 2. Software development is risky
- IBMs Consulting Group survey :
- 55% of the software developed cost more that projected
- 68% took longer to complete than predicted.
- 88% had to be substantially redesigned.
- Standish Group Study of 8,380 software projects (1996):
- 31% of software projects were canceled before they were completed
- 53% of those are completed cost an average of 189% of their original estimates.
- 42% of completed projects - have their original set of proposed features and functions.
- 9% - completed on time and on budget.
- 3. Standish Group report 2006
- 19% of projects were outright failures
- 35% could be categorized as successes (better than 1996, but not great)
- 46% of projects were challenged (either had cost overruns or delays, or both)
- 4. McDonalds gets McFried
- McDonalds Innovate Project
- $500 million spent for nothing....
- Objective --
- McDonald's planned to spend $1 billion over five years to tie all its operations in to a real-time digital network. Eventually, executives in company headquarters would have been able to see how soda dispensers and frying machines in every store were perfect.
- Why was it scrubbed?
- information systems don't scrub toilets and they don't fry potatoes
- 5. FBIs Virtual Case File
- 2003 - Virtual Case File - networked system for tracking criminal cases
- SAIC spent months writing over 730,000 lines of computer code
- Found to have hundreds of software problems during testing
- $170 million dollar project was cancelled -- SAIC reaped more than $100 million
- delayed by over a year. In 2004, the system was 1/10th of the functionality intended and thus largely unusable after $170 spent
- SAIC delivered what FBI requested, the requesting was flawed, poorly planned, not tied to scheduled deliverables
- Now what?
- Lockheed Martin given contract for $305 million tied to benchmarks
- 6. Causes of the VCF Failure
- Changing requirements (conceived before 9/11, after 9/11 requirements were altered significantly)
- 14 different managers over the project lifetime (2 years)
- Poor oversight by the primary owner of the project (FBI) - did not oversee construction closely
- Did not pay attention to new, better commercial products -- kept head in the sand because it had to be built fast
- Hardware was purchased first, waiting on software (common problem) -- if software is delayed, hardware is legacy quickly
- 7. Washington State Licensing Dept
- 1990 - Washington State License Application Mitigation Project
- $41.8 million over 5 years to automate the States vehicle registration and license renewal process
- 1993 - after $51 million, the original design and requirements were expected to be obsolete when finally built
- 1997 - Washington legislature pulled the plug -- $40 million wasted
- lack of early deliverables
- development split between in-house and contractor
- 8. J Sainsbury IT failure
- UK food retailer, J. Sainsbury, invested in an automated supply-chain management system
- System did not perform the functions as needed
- As a result, merchandise was stuck in company warehouses and not getting to the stores
- Company added 3,000 additional clerks to stock the shelves manually
- They killed the project after spending $526 million.....
- 9. Other IT nightmares
- 1999 - $125 million NASA Mars Climate Orbiter lost in space due to a data conversion error...
- Feb 2003 - U.S. Treasury Dept. mailed 50,000 Social Security checks without beneficiary names. Checks had to be cancelled and reissued...
- 2004-2005 - UK Inland Revenue (IRS) software errors contribute to a $3.45billion tax-credit overpayment
- May 2005 - Toyota had to install a software fix on 20,000 hybrid Prius vehicles due to problems with invalid engine warning lights. It is estimated that the automobile industry spends $2-$3billion/year fixing software problems
- Sept 2006 - A U.S. Government student loan service software error made public the personal data of 21,000 borrowers on its web site
- 2008 - new Terminal 5 at Heathrow Airport -New automated baggage routing system leads to over 20,000 bags being put in temporary storage...
- 10. does it really matter?
- 11. Software bugs can kill... http://www.wired.com/software/coolapps/news/2005/11/69355
- 12. When users inadvertently cause disaster http://www.wired.com/software/coolapps/news/2005/11/69355?currentPage=2
- 13. How does this happen?
- Many of the runaway projects are overly ambitious -- a major issue (senior management has unrealistic expectations of what can be done)
- Most projects failed because of multiple problems/issues, not one.
- Most problems/issues were management related.
- In spite of obvious signs of the runaway software project (72% of project members are aware), only 19% of senior management is aware
- Risk management, an important part of identifying trouble and managing it, was NOT done in any fashion in 55% of major runaway projects.
- 14. Causes of failure
- Project objectives not fully specified -- 51%
- Bad planning and estimating -- 48%
- Technology is new to the organization -- 45%
- Inadequate/no project management methods -- 42%
- Insufficient senior staff on the team -- 42%
- Poor performance by suppliers of software/hardware (contractors) -- 42%
- 15. The cost of IT failures
- 2006 - $1 Trillion dollars spent on IT hardware, software, and services worldwide...
- 18% of all IT projects will be abandoned before delivery (18% of $1 trillion = $180 billion?)
- 53% will be delivered late or have cost overruns
- 1995 - Standish estimated the U.S. spent $81 billion for cancelled software projects.....
- 16. Conclusions
- IT projects are more likely to be unsuccessful than successful
- Only 1 in 5 software projects bring full satisfaction (succeed)
- The larger the project, the more likely the failure
- 17. Software as engineering
- Software has been viewed more as art than engineering
- has lead to lack of structured methods and organization for building software systems
- Why is a software development methodology important?
- programmers are expensive
- many software system failures can be traced to poor software development
- requirements gathering is incomplete or not well organized
- requirements are not communicated effectively to the software programmers
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