2008 and Beyond

Carol MoylanChief, National Income and Wealth Division

National Economic Accounts Data Users’ ConferenceWashington, DC

April 13, 2007

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Comprehensive Revisionsof the NIPAs

BEA prepares annual revisions of the NIPAs each July and comprehensive revisions every four to five years based on the release of the benchmark I-O table.

Revisions provide opportunity to make improvements to accounts as outlined in BEA’s strategic plan.

Next comprehensive revision will be released in October 2008.

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Why have Comprehensive Revisions?

▪ To incorporate benchmark I-O accounts

▪ To keep up with a dynamic economy▪ To address data gaps and other

shortcomings▪ To make the full time series

consistent▪ To improve consistency and

integration with other accounts▪ To improve consistency with

international guidelines

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Problem with Past Comprehensive Revisions

Past comprehensive revisions: ▪ Placed huge workload and stress on

NEA staff: More than 100 proposals were submitted for

the 2003 revision; Pressure to submit proposals because the

next opportunity to make a needed change wouldn’t occur for another 4 or 5 years.

▪ Place a large burden on users: Several large changes to absorb at once. Customers have been frustrated by the

delays in release of tables in recent comprehensive revisions.

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Future Comprehensive Revisions

▪ Will continue to: Incorporate latest benchmark I-O

table. Update the reference year for index

numbers. Address data gaps and improve

consistency with other accounts.▪ Will provide option that definitional

or major methodological changes may be implemented in a future annual revision.

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Major Improvements for 2008

▪ Changes in definitions and classifications -- new treatment of disasters.

▪ Changes in presentation (tables) -- new PCE classification.

▪ Changes in source data and statistical methods -- misreporting of income.

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Beyond 2008: Flexible Annual Revisions

▪ Because of improvements in database technologies, number of years open to revision no longer the problem for users that it was previously.

▪ Allow major changes to be introduced without waiting for comprehensive revisions.

▪ BEA will focus on limited major changes in any given annual revision.

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Flexible Annual Revisions (continued)

▪ Better integration with Annual I-O and GDP by Industry estimates.

▪ Priority will be given to proposals that are complete and ready for implementation.

▪ Limited number of changes improves dependability and delivery of revised tables.