2005 liee impact evaluation final report january 23, 2007 presentation to the low income oversight...

2005 LIEE Impact Evaluation2005 LIEE Impact EvaluationFinal ReportFinal Report

January 23, 2007January 23, 2007

Presentation to the Low Income Oversight Board

West Hill Energy and Computing, Inc. West Hill Energy and Computing, Inc.

withwithRidge and AssociatesRidge and Associates

Energy Center of WisconsinEnergy Center of WisconsinWirtshafter AssociatesWirtshafter Associates

KVD ConsultingKVD Consulting

1/23/20081/23/2008 West Hill Energy & Computing, Inc.West Hill Energy & Computing, Inc. 22

OutlineOutline

PY 05 Impact Evaluation Goals & ObjectivesPY 05 Impact Evaluation Goals & Objectives Components of the Research PlanComponents of the Research Plan Changes from Previous EvaluationsChanges from Previous Evaluations ResultsResults Conclusions and RecommendationsConclusions and Recommendations


Program goal: Program goal: installation of all feasible measures in installation of all feasible measures in the homes of low income customersthe homes of low income customers

On site data collection:On site data collection:generally restricted to the presence or generally restricted to the presence or absence of particular measures and the absence of particular measures and the quantity installed at the time of the audit quantity installed at the time of the audit

Program Goals and Data CollectionProgram Goals and Data Collection


Goals & ObjectivesGoals & Objectives

Photograph of K2 in summer from Wikipedia Commons


Evaluation ResultsEvaluation Results

Load impact evaluation Load impact evaluation – First year energy savingsFirst year energy savings– By house type, by measureBy house type, by measure– Coincident peak demand savingsCoincident peak demand savings


PY05 Evaluation ObjectivesPY05 Evaluation Objectives

Measure-specific focusMeasure-specific focus– lighting, cooling and DHW low flowlighting, cooling and DHW low flow

Energy education Energy education – qualitative assessmentqualitative assessment

Estimate energy savings Estimate energy savings – Household and end use levelHousehold and end use level

Missed opportunitiesMissed opportunities– Preliminary assessmentPreliminary assessment


ChallengesChallenges

Household savings are small in comparison Household savings are small in comparison to usageto usage

Many measures, multiple housing typesMany measures, multiple housing types Billing data unavailable for mobile homesBilling data unavailable for mobile homes Some measures may improve efficiency, but Some measures may improve efficiency, but

also increase usealso increase use Mild heating and cooling climatesMild heating and cooling climates


PY05 Research PlanPY05 Research PlanThree Phase ApproachThree Phase Approach

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Month/Year

Ch

ang

e in

Usa

ge

(Mo

nth

ly k

Wh

)


PhasesPhases

Phase IPhase I– Ride alongsRide alongs– Improving program data collectionImproving program data collection– Showerhead surveyShowerhead survey

Phase IIPhase II– On-site SurveyOn-site Survey

Phase IIIPhase III– Billing analysisBilling analysis– Integration of resultsIntegration of results


Improved Data CollectionImproved Data Collection

Added critical fields to program data Added critical fields to program data collection formscollection forms– Fuel used for space and water heatingFuel used for space and water heating– Presence of working air conditioningPresence of working air conditioning– Was furnace working prior to repair or Was furnace working prior to repair or

replacement?replacement?

Implemented during the first quarter of 2005Implemented during the first quarter of 2005


Showerhead SurveyShowerhead Survey

Collected showerheads and aerators Collected showerheads and aerators removed from participants’ homesremoved from participants’ homes– Sent to a testing facility– Flow rates measures at 4 pressures

Two-stage cluster sampleTwo-stage cluster sample– Selected delivery contractor– Set number of showerheads to be collected

Total of 268 showerheads and 187 Total of 268 showerheads and 187 aerators testedaerators tested


On Site SurveyOn Site Survey

Post-installation, on site Post-installation, on site surveyssurveys– 399 homes visited399 homes visited– Stratified, 2-stage cluster Stratified, 2-stage cluster

samplesample

– Checked short-term measure persistence, reviewed Checked short-term measure persistence, reviewed energy education, assessed missed opportunities, energy education, assessed missed opportunities, measured showerhead pressures and flow rates measured showerhead pressures and flow rates


Billing AnalysisBilling Analysis

Gas and ElectricGas and Electric Data from program tracking, billing records Data from program tracking, billing records

and utility weather stationsand utility weather stations Included all participants who passed Included all participants who passed

screening criteriascreening criteria– Sufficient and usable billing history availableSufficient and usable billing history available– New program-level data availableNew program-level data available


Changes from Previous EvaluationsChanges from Previous Evaluations

Improved measure-Improved measure-level estimateslevel estimates– On-site survey provides On-site survey provides

contextcontext Smaller measures were Smaller measures were

combinedcombined Coincident peak Coincident peak

savings were estimatedsavings were estimated


Insights from the On-Site SurveyInsights from the On-Site Survey

Provides support for measure-level savingsProvides support for measure-level savings– Heating savingsHeating savings

~ half of participants have very low heating use~ half of participants have very low heating use

– Evaporative coolersEvaporative coolers At least 35% of participants do not useAt least 35% of participants do not use

their evaporative coolers correctlytheir evaporative coolers correctly

– LightingLighting Hours of use are low, retention rate is lowHours of use are low, retention rate is low


Combining MeasuresCombining Measures

Air Sealing

Hot WaterConservation

CaulkingWeatherstrippingOutlet gasketsMinor home repairsWindow replacement/repairDoor replacement/repairWindow glazing

Low flow showerheadsLow flow aeratorsTank wrapsPipe Insulation


Results: Bringing It All TogetherResults: Bringing It All Together


Who are the LIEE participants?Who are the LIEE participants?

Low usersLow users– Use less electricity and gas than the average Use less electricity and gas than the average

residential customer residential customer

Fewer opportunities (electric)Fewer opportunities (electric)– Lower penetration of electric space and water Lower penetration of electric space and water

heating and cooling equipmentheating and cooling equipment

Many practice energy conservation prior to Many practice energy conservation prior to program participationprogram participation


Total Program SavingsTotal Program Savings

# of

ParticipantsAnnual

MWh

Coincident Peak

(KW)AnnualTherms

PG&E 61,519 24,678 4,588 1,029,125

SCE 41,397 18,001 2,920

SDG&E 13,737 4,640 800 154,498

SoCalGas 41,535 711,768

Totals 158,188 47,319 8,309 1,895,391


Energy Savings by End Use (Electric)Energy Savings by End Use (Electric)

37,011

7,558

1,083 1,052 126 4900

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Refrig

erato

rs

Lighti

ng

DHW C

onserv

ation

Cooling

Mea

sure

s

Attic I

nsulat

ion

Air Sea

ling

An

nu

al M

Wh

Sav

ings


Electric Savings & Refrigerator PenetrationElectric Savings & Refrigerator Penetration

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

PY2000 PY2001 PY2002 PY2005

% o

f P

arti

cip

ants

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

An

nu

al k

Wh

Sav

ing

s

Percent of participants with refrigerators

Average annual per household savings savings


Program Savings by End Use (Gas)Program Savings by End Use (Gas)

1,114,157

28,016

250,508

490,395

12,3140

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

DHWConservation

DHWReplace

AtticInsulation

Air Sealing HS Repair &Replace

An

nu

al T

her

m S

avin

gs


How do these Estimates Compare?How do these Estimates Compare?

PG&EPG&EUnit Electric Savings

(kWh)Unit Gas Savings

(Therms)

PY2005 PY2001 PY2005 PY2001

Refrigerators 757 736

Lighting (CFL's) 16 20

DHW Conservation 277 228 12.7 18.8

Evaporative Cooler Install 247 254

Attic Insulation/Cooling 101 281 60.4 40.5

Attic Insulation/Heating 254 205

Furnace Repair/Replace 3.4 43.2


Considerations for Future EvaluationsConsiderations for Future Evaluations

How often are impact evaluations needed? How often are impact evaluations needed? What are issues influencing cost-What are issues influencing cost-

effectiveness?effectiveness?– Should LIEE services be targeted to specific Should LIEE services be targeted to specific

groups?groups?

How will changes in measure specification How will changes in measure specification affect program savings?affect program savings?


Frequency of Impact EvaluationsFrequency of Impact Evaluations

Currently scheduled every two yearsCurrently scheduled every two years– PY2004 postponed to PY2005 to improve PY2004 postponed to PY2005 to improve

program data collectionprogram data collection

Household savings reasonably stableHousehold savings reasonably stable May not need to maintain two-year cycle, May not need to maintain two-year cycle,

unless there are substantial changes to the unless there are substantial changes to the programprogram


Program Cost-EffectivenessProgram Cost-Effectiveness

Opportunities for savings are lower Opportunities for savings are lower – LIEE participants use less and conserve.LIEE participants use less and conserve.

Refrigerators are a huge contributor to electric Refrigerators are a huge contributor to electric savings.savings.– Changing standards affect per home savings.Changing standards affect per home savings.

Higher use = higher savingsHigher use = higher savings More extreme climates = higher savings for More extreme climates = higher savings for

heating and cooling measuresheating and cooling measures Energy savings are not the only benefit from this Energy savings are not the only benefit from this

program.program.


Non-Energy BenefitsNon-Energy Benefits

Health and SafetyHealth and Safety– Heating systems are not working in 45% of Heating systems are not working in 45% of

homes with heating system repair or homes with heating system repair or replacements replacements

Comfort Comfort – Very low users show an increase in use after Very low users show an increase in use after

program participationprogram participation Suggests that “savings” are being taken in the form Suggests that “savings” are being taken in the form

of improved comfortof improved comfort

Improved ability to pay billsImproved ability to pay bills


Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts

Impact goals should be consistent with the Impact goals should be consistent with the objectives of the program.objectives of the program.– Non-energy benefits may be worth exploring.Non-energy benefits may be worth exploring.

Exercise caution in considering whether to Exercise caution in considering whether to eliminate a measure or change measure eliminate a measure or change measure specifications.specifications.– Measure may have important non-energy benefits.Measure may have important non-energy benefits.– Changing eligibility requirements is likely to affect Changing eligibility requirements is likely to affect bothboth

the the number of homesnumber of homes with the measure and the with the measure and the savings per homesavings per home..


Questions?Questions?


AppendicesAppendices


How reliable are these estimates?How reliable are these estimates?

Internal Validation• Compare models• Compare billing analysis

to alternative estimates

External Validation• Compare to previous

LIEE evaluations• Compare to external

studies

Reliable Savings Estimates


Comparison of Household SavingsComparison of Household Savings

Average Savings per Home

AverageEnergy

UsePY05

PY05 PY02 PY01 PY00

Avg. Energy Use and Savings Trends (kWh)

5,431 423 366 213 175

Avg. Gas Use and Savings Trends (Therms)

421 18 8 18 24


Electric Savings by Measure GroupElectric Savings by Measure Group

# of Households

Savings per home

(kWh)

Program Savings (MWh)

Refrigerators 49,042 755 37,011

Lighting 95,391 79 7,558

DHW Conservation 3,959 274 1,083

Cooling Measures 5,330 197 1,052

Attic Insulation

Heating 175 253 44

Cooling 812 100 81

Air Sealing/Envelope 7,484 65 490


Energy Savings by End Use (Electric)Energy Savings by End Use (Electric)

Refrigerators79%

Cooling Measures

2%DHW

Conservation2%

Lighting16%

Air Sealing1%

Attic Insulation

0%


Coincident Peak SavingsCoincident Peak Savings by End Use by End Use

Refrigerators76%

Lighting9%

DHW Conservation

11%

Cooling Measures

4%

Attic Insulation0%


Gas Savings by Measure GroupGas Savings by Measure Group

# of

Households

Savings per home (Therms)

Program Savings

(Therms)

DHW

Conservation 91,120 12.2 1,114,157

Repair/Replace 2,325 12.1 28,016

Heating Measures

Attic Insulation 4,981 50.3 250,508

Air Sealing/Envelope 83,896 5.8 490,395

Repair/Replace 4,911 2.5 12,314


Program Savings by End Use (Gas)Program Savings by End Use (Gas)

HS Repair & Replace

1%

DHW Conservation

59%

Air Sealing26%

DHW Replace1%

Attic Insulation13%

2005 liee impact evaluation final report january 23, 2007 presentation to the low income oversight...

Documents

west hill energy computing

data collection slide

year energy savings

reviewed energy education

phase approach slide

cooling climates slide

site data collection

improved data collection