2005-06 national family health survey (nfhs-3)
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2005-06 National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3). Marriage and Fertility. Levels, trends & differentials Determinants of fertility Fertility preferences and ideal family size. (c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare. NFHS-3, India, 2005-06. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2005-06 National Family Health Survey
(NFHS-3)
Marriage and Fertility
Levels, trends & differentials
Determinants of fertility
Fertility preferences and ideal family size
(c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
2.72.7At current fertility levels, a woman in At current fertility levels, a woman in
India will have an average of 2.7 India will have an average of 2.7 children during her lifetimechildren during her lifetime
Urban women have attained replacement fertility but rural women have on an average
0.9 children more than urban women..
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Trends in Fertility by Residence
2.7
3.7 3.4
2.3
3.12.9
2.1
3.02.7
Urban Rural Total
NFHS-1 NFHS-2 NFHS-3
Fertility Differentials and Trend by Caste and Religion
3.2 3.12.7
2.9
2.42.7
2.8
3.6
2.83.1
2.83.1
SC ST OBC Other Hindu Muslim
NFHS-2 NFHS-3
Muslim fertility is decreasing faster than Hindu fertility; thus, Hindu-Muslim fertility differentials are narrowing.Fertility of ST and OBC women has remained unchanged.
Just a Few Years of Education Leads to Substantial Reduction in Fertility
TFR of women with No education – 3.6 < 5 years of education – 2.5 12+ years of education – 1.8
TFR of women from Lowest wealth quintile - 3.9 Second lowest wealth quintile – 3.2 Highest wealth quintile – 1.8
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Total Fertility Rates for StatesINDIA
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Replacement or below replacement
(10 states 35% population) TFR 2.1 – 2.4
(6 states 20% population)
TFR 2.5 – 3.6
(9 states 19% population)
TFR 3.7 – 4.0
(4 states 25% population)
Fertility Decline in High Fertility States
TFR in NFHS-2 > 3.0 States
TFR increased Bihar (0.3)
TFR remained same Nagaland
TFR decreased
Manipur (0.2), Uttar Pradesh (0.2)
Madhya Pradesh (0.3), Rajasthan (0.6), Meghalaya (0.8)
TFR in NFHS-2 < 3.0, but increased
Jharkhand (0.6), Arunachal Pradesh (0.5), Tripura (0.4),
Assam (0.1)
Between NFHS-2 and NFHS-3 in most of the states fertility declined.
Levels, trends & differentials
Determinants of fertility
Fertility preferences and ideal family size
(c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Though, fertility in the 15-19 age group is decreasing, still, a substantial proportion of
teenagers have begun childbearing.
12% of women 15-19 are already mothers
4% of women 15-19 are pregnant with their first child
In total, 16% women 15-19 have begun childbearing
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Teenage Fertility by Age
36
13
24
36
15 16 17 18 19
Percent who are pregnant or already mothers
Age
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Age at Marriage
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
5450
45
28
53
NFHS-1 NFHS-2 NFHS-3 Total NFHS-3 Urban NFHS-3 Rural
Percentage of women age 20-24 married by age 18
Initiation of Childbearing
Median age at first birth for women age 25-49:
19.8 (Total)
20.9 (Urban)
19.3 (Rural)
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Median age at first birth increased by half a year from 19.3 in NFHS-2
State-Level Variation in Early Marriage of Women and Teenage Fertility
Percentage of women age 20-24 married by age 18
States
Women age 15-19 already mothers or pregnant at time of survey (%)
States
Less than 15%
Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir
5% or lessGoa, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi
55% or more
Jharkhand (61%), Bihar (60%), Rajasthan (57%) ,
Andhra Pradesh (55%)
25% or more
Jharkhand (28%), Bihar (25%), West Bengal (25%)
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
In most states, the proportion of women marrying by age 18 is decreasing and median age at first birth is increasing, but in a few states, the reverse is happening.
Since NFHS-2, In Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Mizoram, Sikkim,
Tripura and West Bengal, the percentage of women age 20-24 married by age 18 has increased; and
In Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Mizoram, and West Bengal, the median age at first birth has decreased
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
• In addition to their impact on fertility, birth intervals may also affect the health of mothers and their children
• Birth intervals are also strongly associated with child mortality:
Children born too close to a previous birth are at increased risk of health problems and of dying at an early age
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
7-17 months
11%
18-23 months
16%24-35
months34%
36-47 months
19%
48-59 months
9%
60+ months
10%
61% of non-first births
occur less than 36 months after the
preceding birth
61% of non-first births
occur less than 36 months after the
preceding birth
Length of Birth Intervals
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Levels, trends & differentials
Determinants of fertility
Fertility preferences and ideal family size
(c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Ideal Family Size and Composition
1.1 1.0
0.80.7
0.40.6
Women Men
Either sex
Daughters
Sons
1.6 1.4 1.2
1.11.0
0.9
0.20.3
0.4
NFHS-1 NFHS-2 NFHS-3
All persons Ever-married women
2.3 2.3 2.92.7
2.5
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
In the Majority of States, Ideal Family Size is Below 2.5:
Ideal family size of women and men
2.5 to 2.9: Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh,
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh & Manipur
Ideal family size of women and men 3.0- 3.9 Meghalaya, Mizoram & Nagaland
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Two-Child Family is Becoming a Norm
Number of living children
Proportion of currently married women and men who want no more children
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
3
28
8390 92 92 89
4
27
8491 94 94 96
0 1 2 3 4 5 6+
Women Men
Son Preference among Women and Men
90 87
61
92 88
62
Women Men
2 sons 1 son and 1 daughter 2 daughters
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Proportion of currently married women and men having 2 living children and wanting no more children
Son Preference: Level and Trend
7266
37
8376
47
90 87
61
NFHS-1 NFHS-2 NFHS-3
2 sons 1 son and 1 daughter 2 daughters
Proportion of currently married women having 2 living children and wanting no more children
Son Preference by State
In states with replacement and below replacement-level fertility, son preference is low, but exceptions are Punjab and Maharashtra
In states with TFR between 2.1 and 3 son preference is lower, but exceptions are Haryana, Uttaranchal, Jammu & Kashmir, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal
Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (States with TFR >3)
8592
8480
62
33
74 77
4638
33 32
47
2731
20
ARP MP RJ JH NG MG UP BH
2 sons 2 daughters
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Proportion of currently married women having 2 living children and want no more children
Wanted and Actual Fertility Rates
2.1
1.6
1.9
0.9
0.5
0.8
0 1 2 3 4
Rural
Urban
Total
Wanted TFR
Unwanted TFR
2.1
1.9
0.8
0.8
0 1 2 3 4
NFHS-2
NFHS-3 2.7
2.9
2.7
2.1
3.0
TFR TFR
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
If unwanted fertility is averted, TFR will reach replacement level
Key Findings The Indian woman, on average, bears 2.7 children
in her lifetime
Urban India has reached replacement-level fertility
Ten states, comprising 35% of India’s population, have already reached replacement-level fertility; 6 more states with 20% population are nearing replacement-level fertility
Early initiation of childbearing and shorter spacing of births are matters of concern
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Key Findings, contd.
For most couples, a two-child family is the norm
Son preference, though reducing, still persists
Unwanted fertility forms a sizeable part of actual fertility and averting that is the best way to achieve replacement fertility
NFHS-3, India, 2005-06
Thank You