2005 01 fapm-racehorse - corn agronomycorn.agronomy.wisc.edu/extension/powerpoints/2005_01... ·...

Betting The Farm On Racehorse Hybrids

Joe Lauer and Dale Hicks

University of Wisconsin and University of Minnesota

Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu

Hybrid Stability

• What is it?

• Matching Hybrids to Conditions?

“Fix / Flex”Fix / Flex

“Offensive / Defensive”

“Racehorse / Workhorse”/


Objectives

• Do racehorse hybrids exist?

• How risky are they?

• Should farmers buy them?


Hybrid stability – Corn Breeders Definition

High

eld

Gra

in Y

ieH

ybrid

G

slope = 1 is a stable hybridshows a "minimum ofinteraction" with the environmentH environment(Eberhart and Russell)

Low Yields High YieldsLow


Environmental Index

What is a racehorse hybrid?

HighR h

eld

Stableslope = 1

Racehorseslope > 1

Gra

in Y

ieH

ybrid

G

Workhorseslope < 1

H



Environmental Index

Ideally, we want above average hybrids … (Can we always operate above the line?)(Can we always operate above the line?)

High 1:1

eld

Gra

in Y

ie Ideal Workhorseslope < 1intercept > 0

Hyb

rid G

H

Ideal Racehorseslope > 1


pintercept > 0


Environmental Index

Data Sets For Stability Analysis

• Minnesota Corn Grower Hybrid Strip Tests2002 and 2003

1 to 6 locations per county

200 hybrids tested200 hybrids tested

Non-replicated at a location

Chose the high average and low yielding hybrids grown at 7 orChose the high, average, and low yielding hybrids grown at 7 or more locations

• Missouri 2003 Central TestsTop 10, average 10, and lowest 10 hybrids

5 locations

• Wide Area Tests (WI, IL, MI, NE, KS, IA, & PA)Highest 12 and Lowest 11 Hybrids


30 to 380 Environments; 1997 - 2001

Materials and Methods

• Used SELECT data base which is comprised of University h b id t i l d tcorn hybrid trial data.

Total hybrids = 17,890

T t l li t 147 648Total replicate means = 147,648

Total plots = ~500,000 (442,944 to 590,592)

Ch h b id i 7 i• Chose hybrids grown in 7 or more environments Hybrids = 2563

Total replicate means = 51,397

Used 76% of original data set


Data set matrix (1996-2003)All data derived from University trialsAll data derived from University trials

State First Year Last Year N

IA 1996 2001 21004

IL 1999 2001 5619

KS 1996 2001 4913

MI 1997 2001 5361MI 1997 2001 5361

MN 2001 2001 903

NE 1997 2001 5578

PA 1997 2001 3423

WI 1996 2003 15729

WY 1998 2001 88


WY 1998 2001 88

220Yields of Hybrid Groups For A Range of Yield Levels

Minnesota Corn Growers County Plots 2002

200

220 Minnesota Corn Growers County Plots 2002

200

a) High Group b=.94, 182 bu/a180

d (b

u/a

A G b 74 174160

Yiel

d

Low Group b=.98, 166 bu/a

Avg Group b=.74, 174

140

p ,

120-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30


Deviation of Location Avg From All Locs Avg



185High Group b= 94 184 bu/a

165

High Group b=.94, 184 bu/a

145Avg Group b=.93, 177 bu/a

125Low Group b=1.0, 171 bu/a

125

Environmental Index (Bu/A)-40 0 40


275

Yields of Hybrid Groups For A Range of Yield LevelsCentral Missouri Corn Tests, 2003

250

275

225

High 10 Group b=0.99 179 bu/a

175

200

150

Avg Group b=1.0 163 bu/a

100

125

Low Group b=0.97 150 bu/a

75

70 45 30 15 0 15 30 45 70


Deviation of Location Avg From All Locs Avg-70 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 70

Seven States Four Years 30 - 380 Locations240

210

A)

High Group b=0.99 174 Bu/A

180

ield

(Bu/

A

150

Yi

Low Group b=0.89 152 Bu/A

120

90-65 0 65


Environmental Index (Bu/A)

Should a farmer grow a racehorse hybrid?

Predicted grain yield in EI

Hybrid class N % Slope Low Average High Range

Bu/EI Bu/A Bu/A Bu/A Bu/A

Racehorse 141 5.5 1.28 91 167 230 139

Id l R h 4 0 2 1 30 131 168 234 103Ideal Racehorse 4 0.2 1.30 131 168 234 103

Stable 2198 85.8 1.00 112 164 207 95

Workhorse 187 7.3 0.74 115 159 198 83

Ideal Workhorse 12 0.5 0.71 105 154 184 79

No relationship 21 0.8 --- 164 164 164 ---

T t l 2563 100


Total 2563 100 --- --- --- --- ---

Conclusions

• Racehorse, Stable and Workhorse hybrids exist.Racehorse hybrids = 6% of hybrids tested

Stable hybrids = 86% of hybrids tested

W kh h b id 8% f h b id t t dWorkhorse hybrids = 8% of hybrids tested

• Racehorse hybrids are riskier than Stable or Workhorse hybridsWorkhorse hybrids.

Racehorse range = 138 bu/A

Stable range = 95 bu/AStable range = 95 bu/A

Workhorse range = 82 bu/A

In an “average” environment Racehorse and Stable hybrids are 8 g yand 5 bu/A better than Workhorse hybrids.

• “Ideal” racehorse and workhorse hybrids rarely i t


exist.

Recommendations

• “A Good Yielding Hybrid is a Good Yielding Hybrid -Regardless of Environment Choose Good Ones ”Regardless of Environment. Choose Good Ones.

• Use multi-environment average dataBegin with trials in zone(s) nearest youBegin with trials in zone(s) nearest you

Compare hybrids with similar maturities

Use many years and locationsUse many years and locations

• Evaluate consistency of performanceCheck performance in other zones and locationsp

Check other reliable unbiased trials

Be wary of inconsistent performance.

You are taking a tremendous gamble if basing your hybrid


selection decisions on 1 or 2 local test plots

The End of the Row – Questions? Thanks for your attention!Thanks for your attention!


2005 01 fapm-racehorse - corn agronomycorn.agronomy.wisc.edu/extension/powerpoints/2005_01... ·...

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