20 july 2009 an assessment of the television landscape to 2014 commissioned by the national...
TRANSCRIPT
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20 July 2009
An assessment of the television landscape to 2014
Commissioned by the National Association of Broadcasters
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Outline of presentation
• Introduction
• Free to air television
• Subscription television
– DTH
– Subscription DTT
– IPTV
– Mobile television
• New technologies and changing viewer habits
– PVR
– Web TV
– HD TV
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Introduction
• There are currently 9 027 million households in South Africa segmented as follows
• We project growth to 10 – 11 million households by 2014.
78%
16%
5%
1%
FTA
DSTV Premium, Select and Easyview
DStv Compact
M-Net households
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Free to air television
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FTA projections by 2014
• Digital migration to be launched commercially by mid-2010
• Analogue switch-off likely in late 2013 or 2014
• Approximately 7.5 - 8 million households across the two terrestrial platforms
• Two providers (SABC and e.TV) until analogue switch-off, and potentially more thereafter.
• Between 13 and18 television channels.
• Small, urban audiences on DTT in the early years of digital migration.
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ICASA proposed allocation of DTT channels
Mux 1
22Mbps• 9 SABC
video streams
• 1 Community
TV
Mux 2
22Mbps
•6 e.TV video streams
• Rest reserved for new players
Mux 3
22Mbps• 5 M-Net
video streams
• Rest reserved for new players
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FTA impact on audience measurement
• The conversion to DTT will lead to a rise in the number of channels
– Results in fragmentation in viewership and reduced audience sizes (particularly in the early stages of migration and on new DTT channels)
– Might necessitate an augmented sample.
• DTT migration may lead to a reduction in television viewers as some households are cut off.
• FTA television viewing households split across two broadcast platforms (analogue terrestrial and digital terrestrial) during the dual illumination period.
• Phased implementation of DTT may impact on the demographics of the sample.
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Pay television
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DTH projections to 2014
• Three broadcasters: Multichoice/M-Net, ODM and Walking on Water. Telkom Media may enter.
• New entrants to launch. ODM expected to have 500 000 viewers by 2014, Walking on Water likely to be a niche offering. Telkom Media is uncertain.
• At least 3 million subscriber households altogether.
• Over 150 channels available on DTH
– ODM with 40-50 channels
– WoW with 4-10
• The bulk of subscribers on DTH platform. DTH figures subject to change dependent on potential subscription terrestrial and IPTV offerings.
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DTH impact on audience measurement
• Large increase in the number of channels that need to be monitored.
– This will result in fragmentation of viewership across channels
– This will lead to small audience sizes.
• The number of bouquets offered is likely to rise,
– This will segment viewership.
– As channels offered across broadcasters are likely to have limited overlap, this will decrease the number of viewers watching each channel further.
• The size of pay television viewership overall is likely to rise, particularly in the middle class market.
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Projections on subscription DTT
• M-Net is only broadcaster during dual illumination.
– At analogue switch-off there may be new entrants such as ODM.
• At least 4 channels on DTT during dual illumination and 9 thereafter.
• Subscription terrestrial viewership currently low (under 130 000)
– May rise dependent on offering.
– Is likely to compete with mid-tier pay television.
• Rise in channels will lead to fragmentation of viewership.
• If migration is a “hard switch” there will not be fragmentation across analogue and digital platforms.
• Subscription viewers will not be cut off as a result of digital migration.
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IPTV
• IPTV offering unlikely
– there are currently no clear plans to offer IPTV
– should Telkom provide IPTV services on a wholesale basis this may change.
• If offered it is unlikely that IPTV will take a large share of the subscription television audience.
– Audiences of between 160 000 and 250 000 by 2014.
• Potential IPTV viewers likely to be a subset of current DTH households.
• While audience measurement tools should be able to measure the IPTV service, it is unlikely to be a large part of the television audience.
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Mobile television
• Spread of mobile television may be limited in South Africa in the next few years.
– Take-up of 3G streaming is limited thus far
– Regulatory issues may delay the launch of DVB-H.
• Usage spread will be dependent on the price of handsets. Given SA demographics it will only take-off once prices fall.
• In terms of audience measurement
– Mobile television is device-based, therefore a return path is possible.
– As mobile phones are used by unique individuals, monitoring usage on an individual basis and accessing their specific demographics is possible (subject to privacy issues).
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Conclusions on audience measurement issues for FTA and subscription broadcasting
• A large increase in the number of channels available will lead to fragmentation and result in small sample sizes
– ODM enters with 40-50 channels, WoW enters with 4-10 on DTH and Telkom Media enters,
– New channels are introduced on DTT and DVB-H when launched
• Segmentation of viewership across platforms (including mobile) and bouquets will decrease audience size further.
– As channels offered across broadcasters, bouquets and platforms may have limited overlap this could decrease the sample size of viewers watching each channel further.
• Size of audience for same show across platforms needs to be measured
– Where the same channels are shown across platforms, audience measurement tools need to account for it
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New technologies and changing viewer habits
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PVR
• Increased penetration of PVRs in the pay television sector,
– could see penetration levels of between 28% and 75% based on international trends.
– the rollout of DTT set top boxes creates an opportunity for PVR to be offered to free to air television audiences.
• PVR will change viewing habits, allowing for greater time shifted viewing primarily in the pay television segment of the market as well as increased overall consumption.
• Most time-shifted viewing is watched within a period of a few days.
• Project between 700 000 and 2 million PVRs in subscription households and potentially in some FTA households.
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Web TV
• Web TV or Internet TV refers to the provision of video content over the public Internet.
• Web and Internet television services will rise as
– broadband speeds rise,
– caps on broadband accounts are increased or removed
– online content rises.
• Measuring Web TV audiences could become important
– For channels that are streamed live, a large portion of the audience is online- needs to be measured to avoid underestimating audience numbers.
– Other types of Web TV content such as VOD also need to be measured as different advertising concepts may be used.
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Video-on-Demand
• Video-on-Demand technologies allow users to select and either watch or listen to video or audio content on demand
– VOD is likely to come in two forms, web-based VOD and television based VOD
– Growth is dependent on the increase in PVR usage, the new DTT decoders as well as the increase in Web TV usage.
• VOD usage likely to be predominantly in the pay television sector.
• VOD could reach 38% (or about 1 million) of subscription households
• The measurement of VOD is important particularly with respect to content provided on other platforms.
– For example, where particular programming that is shown on television is also shown on demand by the broadcaster it becomes relevant to measure viewership.
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HD television
• High definition television is a high resolution form of digital television broadcasting
• HD channels will rise to as many as five by 2014 (provision led by Multichoice)
• HD is unlikely to account for a substantial proportion of channels by 2014.
• The introduction of HD channels is unlikely to have much of an impact on audience measurement.
– However, it may result in a contraction in the number of channels, or slowed channel growth due to the increased bandwidth or satellite capacity required for HD.
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Conclusion on impact of new technologies and viewer habits on audience measurement
• Viewer habits are likely to change as improvements in technology provide viewers with a greater number of options on how, when and on what platform to watch television:
• PVR, VOD and Web TV allow for time shifted viewing.
– If this is not accounted for audience estimates will be biased downwards
– Estimates may be skewed against those genre that are likely to be time shifted.
• Web TV provides an additional platform for viewing live channels as some channels are streamed live over the Internet.
– These viewers also need to be accounted for.
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Conclusion
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General challenges to audience measurement going forward
• Fragmentation of viewership across channels.
• The introduction of time-shifted or non-linear viewing.
• The introduction of new platforms and new technologies that change viewing behaviour.
• Evolution in the size and nature of audiences across platforms.