20 april 2012 -...
TRANSCRIPT
Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.
Metals Monthly wrap up
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Key Highlights • Flat and Long steel product in India continued with their price divergent trends in Dec 2013. Flat product prices corrected marginally by around 1% while Long products gained in range of 1% – 6% across different regions.
• Global HRC prices have seen 0% ‐ 2% gain in different regions. China export HRC and European prices stood flat while US, CIS and China domestic HRC prices saw marginal gains.
• Global Rebar prices gained across regions except CIS. It gained in Europe (+0.5%) and US (+3.6%) while fell in CIS (‐3.2%) region. Export rebar prices (+2.0%) in China saw improvement while it has fell in domestic market (‐1.1%) during the month.
• Global iron ore prices took a pause on its 2 month rising trend with 58%/ 63.5% Fe grade price declining by 2.8%/ 1.1% during the month. Low grade discounts further increased to 12.1% during Dec 2013 from 10.8% earlier. Similar discounts were seen last only a year back.
• NMDC has maintained its iron ore prices in Jan 2014 post Rs 200/tn hike taken in Dec 2013.
• Domestic pellet prices continued to move up gaining Rs 300/tn to Rs 7400/tn in Dec 2013
• Scrap prices continued to increase across regions except China (down 1.6% mom). Scrap prices in Europe have reported highest gain followed by India.
• Spot Coking coal prices were down by US$ 3.5/tn to US$ 133/tn. Thermal coal price have gained globally in the range of 1.5% ‐ 2.5%
• Apparent steel consumption in EU for Nov 2013 stood at 13.0mn tonnes, up 9.2% yoy and down 2.6% mom. Apparent/ Real steel consumption in India for Dec 2013 saw growth of 4.6%/ 1.2% yoy to 6.4/ 5.5mn tonnes respectively
• Global steel inventory excluding EU continued to decline with a 1% fall sequentially to 30.4mn tonnes. The fall was majorly led by falling Flat product inventories in China.
• Iron ore inventory at port in China stands at 81.3mn tonnes, up 1.4% mom. • Base metal prices saw strong momentum during the month with Zinc leading the pack and Aluminium acting as a laggard. Prices of aluminium/ zinc/ lead/ copper increased by 3.1%/ 10.0%/ 6.6%/ 4.6% respectively. Base metal prices in Shanghai exchange also seen similar trend however with lower magnitude except in aluminium (‐1.2% mom).
• SHFE – LME spreads decreased across metals in Dec 2013. This will increase the competitive pressures for players like Novelis in the Asian region.
• Aluminium regional premiums have gained (due to rise in cancelled warrants by 12% mom) in Shanghai, US and Europe region while it stood flat in Japan. Regional premium for zinc reported mix trends with fall in Shanghai and gain in Singapore. Regional premium for Lead fell during the month.
• Alumina prices gained marginally during the month. Alumina price as a % of LME stood flattish at 18.9% in Dec 2013. However they have seen a strong momentum in the start of the New Year.
• Caustic soda price stood flat sequentially in Dec 2013. • All base metals have seen a fall in LME inventory with copper leading the pack. LME inventory of aluminium/ zinc/ lead/ copper decreased by 0.2%/ 3.0%/ 7.3%/ 13.5% respectively.
Valuations FY14E (x) P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA
JSW Steel 10.0 1.2 6.2Tata Steel 9.8 1.0 6.6SAIL 15.7 0.7 13.0JSPL 12.1 1.1 9.6Hindalco 9.3 0.6 7.8Nalco 14.5 0.8 4.7Hindustan Zinc 8.2 1.5 4.4Sesa Sterlite 12.8 0.9 6.1
Regional Performance (rebased)
60708090100110120130140 India Brazil
Australia London
Indices (rebased)
60708090100110120130140
BSE Ssnsex
BSE Metal Index
Absolute Performance Change (table)
1M 3M 6M
Aluminium 3.1 (2.1) 1.9 Zinc 10.0 9.1 12.7 Copper 4.6 1.2 9.6 Lead 6.6 4.7 7.4 HRC (1.1) (0.8) 3.4 TMT 3.4 2.9 10.4 Iron Ore (0.7) 2.7 15.4 Coking Coal (2.6) (10.4) 2.3 Thermal Coal 1.5 8.0 8.8
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Dhawal Doshi (+ 9122 6667 9769) [email protected] Dharmesh Shah (+ 9122 6667 9974) [email protected]
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
INDEX Ferrous ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 3
Steel Prices ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 3
Raw Material Prices (Iron ore, Scrap, Coal) ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 6
Ferro Alloy Prices ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 9
Steel Profitability & Cost Index ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 10
Production & Inventory ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 11
Trade Data ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 13
Non Ferrous ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 15
Aluminium, Alumina & Bauxite ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 15
Zinc ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 20
Lead ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 22
Copper ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 24
Trade Data ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 27
– Aluminium ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 27
– Zinc & Lead ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 28
– Copper ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 29
LME Cancelled Warrant ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 30
Open Interest – LME ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 31
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Ferrous: Steel Prices
Domestic HRC – Regionwise(Rs / tonne) Domestic TMT – Regionwise (Rs / tonne)
34,500
35,500
36,500
37,500
38,500
39,500
40,500 Ahm Delhi Ludhiana
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000 Chennai Mandi Gobingarh Mumbai
Domestic HRC prices fell by Rs200 – 400 /tn across regions in Dec 2013 Unlike HRC, TMT prices increased across regions in domestic market in Dec 2013. The quantum of increase varies from Rs 250‐2050/tn with highest gain reported in Chennai
India Plate 20 – 60MM – FOB (US$ / tonne) MS Ingot (Rs / tonne)
480
500
520
540
560
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000 Raipur Raigarh
Plate prices remained unchanged at US$ 508/tn during Dec 2013however it has shown some increase in Jan 2014
Ingot prices gained by Rs 300 – 450/tn in Raigarh/ Raipur respectively in Dec 2013
Sponge Iron – Regionwise (Rs / tonne) Pig Iron – Regionwise (Rs / tonne)
17,500
18,500
19,500
20,500
21,500
22,500
23,500
24,500 Mandi Gobindgarh Raipur Raigarh
21,500
22,500
23,500
24,500
25,500
26,500 Rourkela Raipur
Sponge iron prices declined by Rs 200 – 250/tn in Raigarh/Raipurrespectively while it gained by Rs 100/tn in Mandi
Pig iron prices gained by Rs 200‐400/tn in Raipur and Rourkela respectively in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, Steelmint, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
China Export HRC (US$ / tonne) China Export Rebar (US$ / tonne)
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
475
500
525
550
575
600
Prices stood at US$ 525/tn in Dec 2013, flat mom
Rebar prices gained by US$ 10/tn to US$ 515/tn in Dec 2013
China Domestic HRC (Yuan / tonne) China Domestic Rebar (Yuan / tonne)
3,250
3,450
3,650
3,850
4,050
4,250
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
China domestic HRC prices declining trend took a pause with 0.5% gainduring Dec 2013
Unlike HRC prices, China Rebar prices declined by 1.1% in Dec 2013
CIS Export HRC – (US$ / tonne) CIS Export Rebar – (US$ / tonne)
500
520
540
560
580
600
560
570
580
590
600
610
620
CIS HRC prices gained US$ 12.5 to US$ 537.5/tn in Dec 2013 Unlike HRC, CIS rebar prices declined by US$ 17.5/tn to US$ 565/tn in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
EU Domestic HRC (Euro / tonne) EU Domestic Rebar (Euro / tonne)
425
445
465
485
505
525Northern Southern
450
470
490
510
530
550Northern Southern
Price stood flat in both Northern as well as Southern Europe at 445euros and 430 euros respectively in Dec 2013
Price in Northern Europe gained by 2.5 Euros to 515 Euros while it declined 2.5 euro to 475 euros in Southern Europe in Dec 2013
US Import HRC – (US$ / tonne) US Import Rebar (US$ / tonne)
570
580
590
600
610
620
550
555
560
565
570
575
580
585
590
595
600
US import HRC gained US$ 10/tn to US$ 585/tn in Dec 2013 US import Rebar price gained US$ 20/tn to US$ 577.5/tn in Dec 2013
US Domestic Carbon Steel Plate (US$ / tonne)
700
710
720
730
740
750
760
770
Plate prices gained by US$ 20/tn to US$ 766/tn in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Raw Material Prices
NMDC Prices (Rs / tonne) Iron Ore Fines CFR China (US$ / tonne)
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500 Fines 10‐150mm 6‐40mm
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
16558% 63.5% discount
NMDC maintained its iron ore prices in Jan 2014 post Rs200/tn hiketaken in Dec 2013
Iron ore prices declined by 1.1% and 2.8% for 63.5% and 58% Fe grade respectively in Dec 2013. Lower grade discounts increased from 10.2% to 12.1%
SGX Iron Ore Swaps – 62% Fe content China Iron Ore spot Price Hebei (Yuan / tonne)
100
110
120
130
140
150
1601M 2M 3M
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
SGX iron ore swaps prices for 1M/2M/3M decreased by 0.4%/ 1.2%/ 1.6% respectively in Dec 2013
China Iron ore spot prices stood flat in Dec 2013
63% Fe Pellet Barbill – (Rs / tonne) 63.5% Pellet CFR China (US$ / tonne)
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
130
140
150
160
170
180
Pellet prices gained Rs 300/tn to Rs 7,400/tn in Dec 2013
Global pellet prices fell marginally to US$ 160 during Oct 2013
Source: Bloomberg, Steelmint, Cris Infac, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Domestic Scrap (Rs / tonne) US Heavy Melting Scrap (US$ / tonne)
21,000
21,500
22,000
22,500
23,000
23,500
24,000
24,500
25,000
25,500
Raipur Mumbai
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
Scrap prices in Raipur & Mumbai gained 1.3% (Rs 300) and 5.3% (Rs1200) respectively in Dec 2013
US scrap prices gained marginally by US$ 2/tn (+0.6%) in Nov 2013
China Heavy Steel Scrap over 8MM (Yuan / tonne) Germany Scrap Price (Euro / tonne)
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
Scrap prices fell by 40 Yuan (‐1.6%) in Dec 2013 Scrap prices gained by 13 Euros (+5.4%) sequentially in Nov 2013
Hard Coking Coal (US$ / tonne) China Coking Coal (Yuan / tonne)
125
135
145
155
165
175
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400Pindingshan Yinchuan
Coking coal prices corrected by US$ 3.5/tn (‐2.6%) to US$ 133 in Dec2013
China coking coal price in Yinchuan/ Pindingshan stood flat at 900/ 1110 Yuan in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, Steelmint, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Coking Coal Contract price ($ / tonne) China 1st Grade Coke (Yuan / tonne)
125150175200225250275300325350
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
Q4CY13 coking coal contract settled at US$ 152/tn, up US$ 7/tn qoq
Coke prices stayed flat in Dec 2013 at 1470 yuan
NCDEX Thermal Coal (Rs / tonne) McCloskey Newcastle Coal 6700Kcal Australia (US$ / tonne)
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
4100
4200
4300
75
80
85
90
95
Domestic coal prices stood flat in Dec 2013
Coal price gained by 1.5% (US$ 1.25/tn) in Dec 2013 to US$ 84.6
Richards Bay South African Coal 6000 Kcal (US$ / tonne) Indonesian Coal (US$ / tonne)
70
75
80
85
90
95
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75Indonesian Melawan Coal ‐ 5400 KcalIndonesian Eco Coal ‐ 4200 KcalIndonesian Envirocoal ‐ 5000 Kcal
South African coal price gained US$ 1.3/tn (1.6% mom) in Dec 2013 toUS$ 85
Indonesian coal prices gained ~2.5% in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Ferro Alloy Prices
Ferro Chrome 65% Cr (US$ / lb) Ferro Chrome Ex‐factory 60% Cr (Rs / tonne)
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
US Free FOB Pittsburgh Low Carbon 65% CrEuropean Low Carbon 65% Cr
62,000
64,000
66,000
68,000
70,000
72,000
74,000
76,000
78,000
Ferro chrome prices in Europe and US stayed flat during Dec 2013
Domestic prices gained 0.7% to Rs72,000/tn in Dec 2013
Ferro Silicon Si 70% (Rs / tonne) Ferro Silicon FOB China 75% Si (US$ / tonne)
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000 Ex‐Factory Landed Cost
1,350
1,375
1,400
1,425
1,450
1,475
Domestic prices gained Rs 1000/tn to Rs 76,500 while landed costgained Rs 1663/tn to Rs 109,217 in Dec 2013
Ferro Silicon prices in China gained by US$ 39/tn (+2.8%) to US$ 1,453 in Dec 2013
Ferro Manganese Ex‐Factory 70% Mn (Rs / tonne) Silico Manganese Ex‐Factory Mn: 60%, Si: 14% (Rs / tonne)
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
54,000
55,000
56,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
54,000
55,000
56,000
57,000
Domestic prices gained by Rs500/tn (0.9%) in Dec 2013 to Rs 55,000 Domestic prices gained Rs500/tn (‐0.9%) in Dec 2013 Source: Cris Infac, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Steel Profitability & Cost Index
BOF Steel Profitability Index – North America (US$ / tonne) EAF Steel Profitability Index – Europe (Euro / tonne)
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Profitability index declined by US$ 3/tn to US$ 115 in Dec 2013 Profitability index improved to zero during Dec 2013 from the negative zone previous month
EAF Steel Cost Index – North America (US$ / tonne) EAF Steel Cost Index – Europe (Euro / tonne)
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
540
550
560
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Production & Inventory
World Steel Production (mn tonnes) Regionwise Steel Production (mn tonnes)
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
65.0
75.0
China EU North AmericaAsia ex China CIS Others
World crude steel production for Nov 2013 stands at 127.4mn tonnes,up 4.7% yoy and down 5.1% mom
All regions reported negative growth on sequential basis. Steel production grew yoy in all regions except CIS (‐4%)
China Daily Steel Production (mn tonnes) India Steel Production (mn tonnes)
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
6.0
6.3
6.5
6.8
7.0
7.3
7.5
China daily crude steel production for 2nd 10 days of Dec 2013 stood at2.01mn tonnes, up 0.1% mom and 5.4% sequentially
Finished steel production for Dec 2013 stands at 6.6mn tonnes, up 5.0% yoy and 6.3% mom
China Iron Ore Production (mn tonnes) Iron Ore Production‐ Australia & Brazil (mn tonnes)
110
114
118
122
126
130
134
138
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550Australia Brazil
China produced 138.7mn tonnes of iron ore in Nov 2013, up 11.2% yoy and 2.8% mom
Source: Bloomberg, JPC, WSA, CISA, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Global Steel Inventory excl EU (mn tonnes) China Steel Inventory (mn tonnes)
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
500600700800900
100011001200130014001500
Longs Flats
World inventory declined to 30.4mn tonnes in Dec 2013, 22.8% down from highest level reported in end of March 2013. It is down 1.0% mom
Long/Flats products inventory fell by 1.7%/ 3.0% mom during Dec 2013
US Service Centre Inventory Canada Service Centre Inventory (mn tonnes)
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
US Steel products inventory (mn tonnes)US Steel products months of inventory
12001250130013501400145015001550160016501700175018001850
US steel products months of inventory fell to 2.1 months in Oct 2013.This is lowest level reported since Mar 2010
Canada serice centre inventory fell by 32.0% YTD in CY13. Inventory in Oct 2013 fell by 4.0% on sequential basis. This is the lowest level of inventory reported post Jan 2010
Japan Steel Inventory (mn tonnes) China Iron Ore Inventory at Ports (mn tonnes)
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
65
70
75
80
85
90
Japan steel inventory gained by 3.1% sequentially to 8.3mn tonnes inOct 2013
Iron ore inventory at port stands at 81.3mn tonnes, up 1.4% mom. This is the highest inventory reported since last week of Nov 2012
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Trade Data
India Steel Consumption (mn tonnes) India Steel: Imports – Exports (000 tonnes)
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Apparent Real
250
350
450
550
650
750
850 Import Export
Apparent and real finished steel consumption saw growth of 4.6% and 1.2% yoy to 6.4mn tonnes and 5.5mn tonnes respectively in Dec 2013
Exports for Dec 2013 stood at 0.61mn tonnes, +27.3%/ ‐22.2% on yoyand mom basis. Imports stood at 0.44mn tonnes, ‐35.7% /+42.9% onyoy and mom basis respectively
China Net Steel Exports (mn tonnes) EU Apparent Steel Consumption (mn tonnes)
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.8
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
Net steel exports from China in Nov 2013 stood at 3.75mn tonnes, down7.9% and 4.6% on yoy and mom basis respectively
Apparent steel consumption in EU for Nov 2013 stood at 13.0mntonnes, up 9.2% yoy and down 2.6% mom
Europe Flat Products Net Imports/(Exports) (000 tonnes) Europe Long Products Net Exports (000 tonnes)
(700)
(600)
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
‐
100
200
450500550600650700750800850900
Flat steel net exports from Europe stood at 391KT in Oct 2013 against 484KT in Oct 2012
Net steel exports of long products stood at 560KT in Oct 2013, down35.7% and 9.2% on yoy and mom basis respectively
Source: Bloomberg, JPC, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
US Net Steel Imports (000 tonnes) Japan Net Steel Exports (000 tonnes)
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
2,550 2,650 2,750 2,850 2,950 3,050 3,150 3,250 3,350 3,450 3,550
US net steel imports in Oct 2013 stood at 1.8mn tonnes, up 38.7% yoy and 9.5% mom. This is the highest monthly imports since May 2012
Net steel exports in Nov 2013 stood at 2.6mn tonnes, down 8.2% yoy and 0.2% mom
China Iron Ore Imports (mn tonnes) China Iron Ore Imports‐ Australia & Brazil (mn tonnes)
55
60
65
70
75
80
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0 Australia Brazil
Iron ore imports in Nov 2013 stood at 77.8mn tonnes, up 18.3% and 14.8% on yoy and mom basis respectively. This is highest ever monthlyimports reported by China
Iron ore imports from Australia/ Brazil stood at 39.6/ 15.4mn tonnes in Nov 2013, up 18.9%/9.3% yoy and 10.2%/ 20.9% sequentially
Iron Ore Exports‐ Australia & Brazil (mn tonnes) Coking Coal Exports‐ Australia (mn tonnes)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55 Australia Brazil
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
Iron ore exports from Brazil in Nov 2013 stood at 22.6mn tonnes, down30.7% yoy and 30.6% mom
Australia coking coal exports in Aug 2013 stood at 14.4mn tonnes, up30.0% and 11.5% on yoy and mom basis respectively
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
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9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Non Ferrous: Aluminium
LME Aluminium (US$ / tonne) Shanghai Aluminium (Yuan / tonne)
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
14000
14200
14400
14600
14800
15000
15200
15400
Prices gained by 3.1% (US$ 54) during Dec 2013 to US$ 1765 per tonne
Shanghai aluminium price continues to fall with 1.2% decline in Dec2013
SHFE – LME Spread (US$ / tonne) (excl regional premium) Forward Curve (US$ / tonne)
‐200
‐100
0
100
200
300
3M Cash
(80)(40)‐40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
1,650
1,750
1,850
1,950
2,050
2,150
LME 3M 15M 27M
The arbitrage decreased by US$ 91/ 49 in spot/ 3 months forward toUS$ 136/ 150 respectively in Dec 2013
Contango increased by US$ 8 / US$ 26 / US$ 48 for 3M / 15M / 27M respectively to US$ 36 / US$ 143 / US$ 222
Regional Premium (US$ / tonne)‐ Shanghai Regional Premium (US$ / tonne)
220
240
260
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300Japan US Europe
Premium in Shanghai increased by US$ 30/tn (+12.8%) in Dec 2013 toUS$ 265/tn. This is the highest ever premium reported over LME inShanghai
Aluminium premiums stood flat in Japan (US$246) during Dec 2013. It increased in US (US$ 36 to US$ 259) and Europe (US$ 20 to US$ 280) during the month
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
– 15 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Warehousing Profit / Loss (US$ / tonne) LME / Used Beverages Cans spread – N America (US$ / tonne)
(60)
(40)
(20)
‐
20
40
60
80
100
27M 15M
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100LME aluminium UBC Spread (RHS)
Profit in financing deals for 15M stood flat at US$ 37 while it fell by US$39 to US$ 40 for 27M in Dec 2013
LME Aluminium / UBC spread receovered with a 54.2% mom (US$ 286/tn) gain in Sep 2013
Scrap – North America (US$ / tonne) Aluminium Scrap – Italy (Euro / tonne)
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
Used Beverage Cans Mixed low copper clipsOld Sheet Old CastTurnings (Clean and dry)
1220
1240
1260
1280
1300
1320
1340
1360
1380
Scrap prices in North America fell by 0% ‐ 4.6% sequentially in Sep 2013 Aluminium scrap prices in Italy fell by 1.2% (Euro 15/tn) in Dec 2013
Aluminium Scrap – US Foundry Ingot (US$ / lb) Aluminium Scrap – UK Foundary Ingot (GBP / tonne)
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
950
975
1000
1025
1050
1075
1100
1125
1150
Aluminium scrap prices fell marginally on sequential basis in Dec 2013 Aluminium scrap prices stood flat in Dec 2013 Source: Bloomberg, USGS, PhillipCapital India Research
– 16 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Alumina Prices: Australia FOB (US$ / tonne) Alumina Prices: China CFR (US$ / tonne)
305
315
325
335
345
355
400
405
410
415
420
425
430
435
Alumina FOB price stood at US$ 328/tn, up 1.6% mom on restockingdemand and concerns of Indonesia banning bauxite exports
China alumina prices fell by US$ 6/tn at US$ 404/tn in Dec 2013
Alumina as a % of LME Caustic Soda – India (Rs / tonne)
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
28500
30500
32500
34500
36500
38500
40500
Alumina price as a % of LME stood flat at 18.9% in Dec 2013. It hasseen further momentum in the new year
Caustic soda price stood flat sequentially at Rs 34800/tn in Dec 2013
Caustic Soda – US (US$ / tonne)
570
590
610
630
650
670
Caustic Soda prices stayed flat at US$ 639/tn since Sep 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
– 17 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Aluminium Production‐ World (000 tonnes) Regionwise Aluminium Production (000 tonnes)
3900
3950
4000
4050
4100
4150
4200
4250
200400600800
100012001400160018002000
China AmericaEurope Asia excl ChinaAfrica & Oceania Others
World aluminium production for Nov 2013 stood at 4.19mn tonnes, up5.8% yoy and down 1.6% sequentially
Excluding China, yoy production growth fell by 2.7% and 0.7% in Nov 2013and YTD CY13. Proudction in China for Nov 2013 stood at 1.95mn tonnes, up 17.6% and 0.2% on yoy and mom basis
Companywise Aluminium Production (tonnes) Aluminium Consumption‐ World (000 tonnes)
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000 Hindalco Nalco Balco VAL
3550
3650
3750
3850
3950
4050
World consumption in Oct 2013 stood at 4.0mn tonnes, up 0.9% and 4.8% on yoy and mom basis respectively. This is the highest monthly consumption reported. YTD CY13 consumption stood at 38.4mn tonnes, up 1.8% yoy
Regionwise Aluminium Consumption (000 tonnes) Alumina Production (000 tonnes)
200
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
2,700
3,200
3,700
4,200
World USA Europe China Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
East & Central Europe ChinaSouth America EuropeOthers
All major regions have reported positive growth in consumptionsequentially in Oct 2013 except Europe. YoY production growth is drivenby China (+10.8%)
World alumina production for Nov 2013 stands at 9.16mn tonnes, up 11.4% yoy and down 0.2% mom. The yoy growth is majorly driven by China (+29.0% yoy)
Source: Bloomberg, IAI, Ministry of Mines, PhillipCapital India Research
– 18 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
World‐ Bauxite Production (mn tonnes) Regionwise‐ Bauxite Production (mn tonnes)
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
0.9
1.9
2.9
3.9
4.9
5.9
6.9
China Indonesia Australia
Brazil India Others
Bauxite production in Oct 2013 stood at 23.7mn tonnes, up 7.7% yoy and down 1.6% mom
All major regions have reported YoY growth in production (except India& others) while it stood almost flat sequentially except Indonesia and others regions
LME Aluminium Inventory (mn tonnes) Shanghai Aluminium Inventory (000 tonnes)
5.05
5.15
5.25
5.35
5.45
5.55
‐
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
LME aluminium inventory currently stands at 5.46mn tonnes,marginally down sequentially in Dec 2013
Shanghai aluminium inventory gained 32.2% mom during Dec 2013 after fall by ~97% since May 2013
World Aluminium Inventory (mn tonnes) Producer Inventory – Aluminium (000 tonnes)
6.95
7.05
7.15
7.25
7.35
7.45
7.55
2,125
2,150
2,175
2,200
2,225
2,250
2,275
2,300
2,325
2,350
2,375
World aluminium inventory fell 0.4% sequentially to 7.06mn tonnes inOct 2013. This is the lowest inventory reported post Aug 2012
Producer inventory gained 1.3% in Nov 2013 to 2.17mn tonnes
Source: Bloomberg, IAI, PhillipCapital India Research
– 19 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Zinc
LME Zinc (US$ / tonne) Shanghai Zinc (Yuan / tonne)
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
14800
15000
15200
15400
15600
15800
16000
16200
16400
LME zinc prices reported highest gain across base metals with 10%(US$ 187) gains during Dec 2013 to US$ 2053 per tonne
Shanghai Zinc prices increased by 1.9% in Dec 2013
SHFE – LME Spread (US$ / tonne) (excl regional premium) Forward Curve (US$ / tonne)
‐40
10
60
110
160
210
260
3M Cash
‐30
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200LME 3M 15M 27M
The arbitrage decreased by US$ 161/ 122 in spot/ 3 months forward toUS$ 53/ 79 respectively in Dec 2013
Contango reduced by US$ 19 / US$ 42 / US$ 61 for 3M / 15M / 27M respectively to US$ 2 / US$ 45 / US$ 75
Regional Premium (US$ / tonne)
100
120
140
160
180
200
220Shanghai Singapore
Premium in Singapore gained by US$ 20/tn (+12.1%) to US$ 185 whileit fell in Shanghai by US$ 13 to US$ 180 in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
– 20 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Zinc Production (000 tonnes) Company wise production – India (tonnes)
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250 Metal production Mine production
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000 Hindustan Zinc Binani (RHS)
Mine /Metal production moved ‐2.6% /3.3% on mom basis in Oct 2013and ‐3.1% / 8.3% on yoy basis respectively
Zinc consumption (000 tonnes) LME Zinc Inventory (mn tonnes)
99010101030105010701090111011301150117011901210
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
Zinc consumption stood at 1.2mn tonnes in Oct 2013, up 12.6% and 4.2% on yoy and mom basis respectively. This is the highest evermonthly zinc consumption reported in a particular month
LME zinc inventory fell by 3.0% in Dec 2013. This is the lowest level of inventory reported since mid Sep 2012
Shanghai Zinc Inventory (000 tonnes)
215
235
255
275
295
315
335
Shanghai exchange inventory reversed its falling trend with 3.1% momgains in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, ILZSG, Ministry of Mines, PhillipCapital India Research
– 21 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Lead
LME Lead (US$ / tonne) Shanghai Lead (Yuan / tonne)
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
13500
13750
14000
14250
14500
14750
15000
15250
15500
Lead prices gained by US$ 135 (+6.6%) in Dec 2013 to US$ 2191
Shanghai Lead prices gained by 2.2% during Dec 2013
Forward Curve (US$ / tonne) Regional Premium‐ Rotterdam (US$ / tonne)
(50)
(20)
10
40
70
100
130
160
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500 LME 3M 15M 27M
28
38
48
58
68
78
88
Contango moved by US$ +4/ US$ ‐13/ US$ ‐30 for 3M / 15M / 27Mrespectively to US$ 29 / US$ 58/ US$ 77 in Dec 2013
Premiums fell by US$ 2.5 (‐5.9%) in Dec 2013 to US$ 40/tn
Lead Production (000 tonnes) Company wise production – Hindustan Zinc (tonnes)
325
425
525
625
725
825
925
1025Metal production Mine production
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Mine / Metal production grew ‐5.1% /+0.2% on mom basis and +2.5% / 0.2% on yoy basis respectively in Oct 2013
Source: Bloomberg, ILZSG, Ministry of Mines, PhillipCapital India Research
– 22 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Lead Consumption (000 tonnes) LME Lead Inventory (000 tonnes)
800
825
850
875
900
925
950
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
Lead consumption stood at 0.93mn tonnes in Oct 2013, up 0.5% and 5.1% on yoy and mom basis respectively
LME lead inventory fell by 7.3% sequentially in Dec 2013 to 214,000 tonnes
Shanghai Lead Inventory (000 tonnes)
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Unlike LME, Shanghai lead inventory gained by 2.7% sequentially inDec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, ILZSG, PhillipCapital India Research
– 23 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Copper
LME Copper (US$ / tonne) Shanghai Copper (Yuan / tonne)
6500
6700
6900
7100
7300
7500
7700
7900
8100
8300
48500
50500
52500
54500
56500
58500
60500
Copper price gained by US$ 322 (+4.6%) in Dec 2013 to US$ 7376 Shanghai Copper prices increased by 2.6% during Dec 2013
SHFE – LME Spread (US$ / tonne) (excl regional premium) Forward Curve (US$ / tonne)
‐550
‐450
‐350
‐250
‐150
‐50
50
150
250
3503M Cash
‐250
‐200
‐150
‐100
‐50
0
50
100
150
200
6600
7000
7400
7800
8200
8600LME 3M 15M 27M
The arbitrage decreased by US$ 113/ 80 in spot/ 3 months forward toUS$ ‐48/ ‐58 respectively in Dec 2013
Contango decreased by US$ 17/ US$ 108 / US$ 178 for 3M / 15M / 27M respectively to US$ ‐16 / US$ ‐93 / US$ ‐142
Regional Premium (US$ / tonne) ‐ US Regional Premium (US$ / tonne)
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225Singapore Rotterdam Shanghai
Premiums in US stood flat at US$ 143/tn since last week of Oct 2013 Premium in Singapore stood flat at US$ 135. Premium in Rotterdam/ Shanghai decreased by US$ 7.5/ 20 to US$ 135/ 177.5 respectively in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
– 24 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Copper Scrap (Euro / tonne)‐ France Copper Scrap China (US$ / tonne)
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
3300
3350
Copper scrap prices in France gained by 1.3% (65 Euro/tn) in Dec 2013 Scrap prices in China corrected by 0.8% (US$ 23/tn) in Nov 2013
Copper Scrap Prices – Germany (Euro / tonne) Copper Mine Production (000 tonnes)
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
6000
6200
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
Copper scrap prices in Germany stood flat at US$ 5080/tn during Dec2013
World mine production is up 7.6% yoy and down 1.3% mom in Sep2013
Copper Refined Production (000 tonnes) Companywise Production – India (tonnes)
200
450
700
950
1,200
1,450
1,700
1,950
Primary Refined Metal productionSecondary Refined Metal productionTotal Refined Metal production
‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000 Hindalco Sterlite Hindustan Copper
Refined production is up 4.4% yoy and down 1.5% sequentially in Sep2013. Refined copper market balance for Sep 2013 showed productiondeficit of 162,000 tonnes
Source: Bloomberg, ICSG, PhillipCapital India Research
– 25 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Copper Consumption (000 tonnes) LME Copper Inventory (000 tonnes)
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
World copper consumption for Sep 2013 stands at 1.93mn tonnes, up10.8% yoy and 8.4% mom. This is the highest ever monthlyconsumption reported in a particular month
LME copper inventory is down 13.5% sequentially in Dec 2013. It has corrected by 40.2% since July 2013
Shanghai Copper Inventory (000 tonnes) World Refined Copper Stocks (mn tonnes)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 39.8% in Dec 2013 to 23.1KT.It has corrected by 50.4% in last two months
World refined copper stocks currently stands at 1.06mn tonnes, down3.7% sequentially in Oct 2013
Source: Bloomberg, ICSG, PhillipCapital India Research
– 26 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Trade data ‐ Aluminium
China Aluminium Net Exports (000 tonnes) China Alumina Net Imports (000 tonnes)
150
170
190
210
230
250
50
150
250
350
450
550
Net Aluminium exports from China in Nov 2013 stood at 0.23mntonnes, up 20.7% and 3.7% on yoy and mom basis respectively
Net alumina imports in China stood at 0.55mn tonnes in Nov 2013, up 20.2% yoy and 1.9% sequentially
China Bauxite imports (mn tonnes) Australia Alumina Exports (mn tonnes)
0.75
1.75
2.75
3.75
4.75
5.75
6.75
7.75
1.25
1.35
1.45
1.55
1.65
1.75
1.85
1.95
Bauxite imports in China in Nov 2013 stood at 5.37mn tonnes, up48.7% yoy and down 23.0% mom
Alumina exports from Australia in Oct 2013 stood at 1.65mn tonnes, down 5.8% and 0.7% on yoy and mom basis respectively
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
– 27 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Trade data ‐ Zinc & Lead
China Refined Zinc Net Imports (000 tonnes) China Zinc Ore & Concentrates Imports (000 tonnes)
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
China refined zinc net imports for Nov 2013 stood at 73,528 tonnes, up91.4% yoy and down 1.2% sequentially
China’s imports of zinc ore & concentrates in Nov 2013 stood at 0.138mn tonnes, down 21.8% and 13.4% on yoy and mom baisrespectively
China Refined Lead Net Exports/ (Imports)‐ (tonnes) China Lead Ore & Concentrates Imports‐ (000 tonnes)
‐400
100
600
1100
1600
2100
2600
3100
75
95
115
135
155
175
195
215
Lead ore & concentrate imports in China stood at 0.105 mn tonnes in
Nov 2013, down 41.2% and 49.1% on yoy and mom basis respectively
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
– 28 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Trade data ‐ Copper
China Refined Copper Net Imports (000 tonnes) China Copper Scrap Imports (000 tonnes)
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
China refined copper net imports for Oct 2013 stood at 0.31mn tonnes,up 33.2% and 10.1% on yoy and mom basis respectively
China copper scrap imports for Nov 2013 stood at 0.43mn tonnes,down 8.5% yoy and up 19.4% mom
China Copper Ore & Concentrates Imports (000 tonnes) Chile Copper Ore & Concentrates Exports (000 tonnes)
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
China copper ore & concentrates imports for Nov 2013 stood at 0.92mn tonnes, up 10.8% yoy and down 2.1% mom
Chile copper ore & concentrates exports for Oct 2013 stood at 0.304mn tonnes, up 2.2% yoy and 109.1% mom
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
– 29 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
LME Cancelled Warrants
LME Aluminium Cancelled Warrants (mn tonnes) LME Zinc Cancelled Warrants (000 tonnes)
1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50
300
400
500
600
700
800
LME Aluminium cancelled warrant currently stands at 2.35mn tonnes,up 12.3% mom
LME zinc cancelled warrant currently stands at 0.433mn tonnes, down18.8% mom. It has fell by 62.5% in H2CY13
LME Lead Cancelled Warrants (000 tonnes) LME Copper Cancelled Warrants (000 tonnes)
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
20
70
120
170
220
270
320
370
420
LME lead cancelled warrant declined 34.1% mom to 32,150 tonnes. It fell nearly 82.3% since last week of May 2013
LME copper cancelled warrant currently stands at 0.242mn tonnes, down 8.8% mom
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
– 30 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Open Interest ‐ LME
Aluminium (000 contracts) Zinc (000 contracts)
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
245
255
265
275
285
295
305
315
Open interest in Aluminium LME contracts fell 1.1% in Dec 2013 Open interest in Zinc LME contracts gained by 5.8% sequentially in Dec2013
Lead (000 contracts) Copper (000 contracts)
100
110
120
130
140
150
215
235
255
275
295
315
Open interest in Lead LME contracts gained by 1.3% in Dec 2013 Open interest in Copper LME contracts reported highest gain across base metals with 6.3% sequential gain in Dec 2013
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
– 31 of 33 –
– 32 of 33 –
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Management Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) (91 22) 2300 2999 Sajid Khalid (Head – Institutional Equities) (91 22) 6667 9972 Jignesh Shah (Head – Equity Derivatives) (91 22) 6667 9735
Research Automobiles Deepak Jain (9122) 6667 9758 Banking, NBFCs Manish Agarwalla (9122) 6667 9962 Sachit Motwani, CFA, FRM (9122) 6667 9953 Consumer, Media, Telecom Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6667 9947 Ennette Fernandes (9122) 6667 9764 Vivekanand Subbaraman (9122) 6667 9766 Cement Vaibhav Agarwal (9122) 6667 9967 Economics Anjali Verma (9122) 6667 9969
Engineering, Capital Goods Ankur Sharma (9122) 6667 9759 Jishar Thoombath (9122) 6667 9986 Infrastructure & IT Services Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6667 9949 Varun Vijayan (9122) 6667 9992 Raheel Arathodi (9122) 6667 9768 Metals Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6667 9769 Dharmesh Shah (9122) 6667 9974 Mid‐caps Kapil Bagaria (9122) 6667 9965 Raheel Arathodi (9122) 6667 9768
Oil&Gas, Agri Inputs Gauri Anand (9122) 6667 9943 Saurabh Rathi (9122) 6667 9951 Pharma Surya Patra (9122) 6667 9768 Retail, Real Estate Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA (9122) 6667 9952 Neha Garg (9122) 6667 9996 Quant Shikha Khurana (9122) 6667 9948 Sr. Manager – Equities Support Rosie Ferns (9122) 6667 9971
Sales & Distribution Kinshuk Tiwari (9122) 6667 9946 Ashvin Patil (9122) 6667 9991 Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) 6667 9964 Kishor Binwal (9122) 6667 9989 Sidharth Agrawal (9122) 6667 9934 Dipesh Sohani (9122) 6667 9756
Dilesh Doshi (Sales Trader) (9122) 6667 9747 Rajesh Ashar (Sales Trader) (9122) 6667 9746
Mayur Shah (Execution) (9122) 6667 9945
Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)
SINGAPORE
Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06‐00 Raffles City Tower,
Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax: (65) 6535 3834
www.phillip.com.sg
MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B‐3‐6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II,
No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) 3 2162 8841 Fax (60) 3 2166 5099
www.poems.com.my
HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd
11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 2277 6600 Fax: (852) 2868 5307
www.phillip.com.hk
JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd
4‐2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo‐ku Tokyo 103‐0026
Tel: (81) 3 3666 2101 Fax: (81) 3 3664 0141 www.phillip.co.jp
INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia
ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia
Tel (62) 21 5790 0800 Fax: (62) 21 5790 0809 www.phillip.co.id
CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.
No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318 Shanghai 200 001
Tel (86) 21 5169 9200 Fax: (86) 21 6351 2940 www.phillip.com.cn
THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd.
15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand
Tel (66) 2 2268 0999 Fax: (66) 2 2268 0921 www.phillip.co.th
FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd.
3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France
Tel (33) 1 4563 3100 Fax : (33) 1 4563 6017 www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd.
6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS
Tel (44) 20 7929 5300 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6835 www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc.
141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building
Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel (1) 312 356 9000 Fax: (1) 312 356 9005
AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia
Level 37, 530 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia
Tel: (61) 3 9629 8380 Fax: (61) 3 9614 8309 www.phillipcapital.com.au
SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited
Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka
Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199 www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm
INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited
No. 1, C‐Block, 2nd Floor, Modern Center , Jacob Circle, K. K. Marg, Mahalaxmi Mumbai 400011 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 www.phillipcapital.in
9 January 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / METALS – MONTHLY WRAP UP
Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. This report is issued by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. which is regulated by SEBI. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Phillip (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd. References to "PCIPL" in this report shall mean PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd unless otherwise stated. This report is prepared and distributed by PCIPL for information purposes only and neither the information contained herein nor any opinion expressed should be construed or deemed to be construed as solicitation or as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment or derivatives. The information and opinions contained in the Report were considered by PCIPL to be valid when published. The report also contains information provided to PCIPL by third parties. The source of such information will usually be disclosed in the report. Whilst PCIPL has taken all reasonable steps to ensure that this information is correct, PCIPL does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at his or her own risk and PCIPL does not accept any liability as a result. Securities and Derivatives markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements and past performance is not necessarily an indication to future performance. This report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax and financial advisors and reach their own regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. In no circumstances it be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the Securities mentioned in it. The information contained in the research reports may have been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources, which we believe are reliable. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice Important: These disclosures and disclaimers must be read in conjunction with the research report of which it forms part. Receipt and use of the research report is subject to all aspects of these disclosures and disclaimers. Additional information about the issuers and securities discussed in this research report is available on request. Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about all of the subject issuers and/or securities, that the analyst have no known conflict of interest and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views or recommendations contained in this research report. The Research Analyst certifies that he /she or his / her family members does not own the stock(s) covered in this research report. Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it or its affiliates may hold either long or short positions in such securities. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not hold more than 1% of the shares of the company(ies) covered in this report. Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL’s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety. Caution: Risk of loss in trading in can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker‐dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker‐dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. This report is intended for distribution by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a‐6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities andExchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a‐6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker‐dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Marco Polo or another U.S. registered broker dealer PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Registered office: 2nd Floor, C‐Block, Modern Centre, Mahalaxmi, Mumbai – 400011
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