2 nd international conference on nuclear & renewable energy resources 4-7 july 2010, gazi...

22ndnd International Conference on Nuclear & International Conference on Nuclear & Renewable Energy ResourcesRenewable Energy Resources

4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey

Nuclear Fusion Energy- Nuclear Fusion Energy- MankindMankind’’s Giant Step s Giant Step ForwardForward

Sing Lee Sing Lee 1,2,3*1,2,3*& Sor Heoh Saw & Sor Heoh Saw 1,21,2

11Institute for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, AustraliaInstitute for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, Australia22INTI University College, 71800 Nilai, Malaysia INTI University College, 71800 Nilai, Malaysia

33Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore 637616Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore 637616

e-mails: e-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey S Lee & S H Saw

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CONTENTCONTENT

Energy as the most basic of resourcesEnergy as the most basic of resources Correlation of energy consumption & wealthCorrelation of energy consumption & wealth Exponential growth of population & energy Exponential growth of population & energy

consumption per capita-unsustainableconsumption per capita-unsustainable Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy

source is developedsource is developed Nuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forwardNuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forward Scenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion EnergyScenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion Energy


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The most basic resource of Mankind is energyThe most basic resource of Mankind is energy

With energy food can be grown, manufactured, processedWith energy food can be grown, manufactured, processed With energy, materials can be mined, manufactured, With energy, materials can be mined, manufactured,

processedprocessed With energy, infrastructure can be built to provide With energy, infrastructure can be built to provide

transport, communication, health and educationtransport, communication, health and education With energy, Man can explore further afield, to the far With energy, Man can explore further afield, to the far

corners of the Earth even to extra-terrestrial destinationscorners of the Earth even to extra-terrestrial destinations With energy, life can be more comfortable, more in With energy, life can be more comfortable, more in

conformity with Man as a civilised creatureconformity with Man as a civilised creature Not surprisingly, there is close correlation between the Not surprisingly, there is close correlation between the

wealth of a country and its energy consumption per wealth of a country and its energy consumption per capita.capita.


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Close correlation between economic wealth Close correlation between economic wealth and energy consumption per capita-2006.and energy consumption per capita-2006.

[2][2]


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Trends in population growth and energy Trends in population growth and energy per capita consumption growthper capita consumption growth

AD 1500 World population (estimated) 450 million AD 1500 World population (estimated) 450 million AD 1900 1.6 billion [1]AD 1900 1.6 billion [1] End 2009 6.8 billion. End 2009 6.8 billion. Past 100 years world population grew 4 times, whilst Past 100 years world population grew 4 times, whilst

energy consumption grew 10 times. energy consumption grew 10 times. Thus energy consumption grew faster than population Thus energy consumption grew faster than population

growth;growth; in other words energy consumption per head grew in other words energy consumption per head grew

more than 2 timesmore than 2 times. . This trend of per capita energy consumption growth This trend of per capita energy consumption growth

will continue as the rest of the world attempts to catch will continue as the rest of the world attempts to catch up with the best standard of living in the world.up with the best standard of living in the world.


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Exponential Growth of Population Exponential Growth of Population and Energy Consumptionand Energy Consumption

Past 100 years the doubling time of world Past 100 years the doubling time of world population was 50 years population was 50 years

whilst the doubling time of energy consumption whilst the doubling time of energy consumption was 30 yearswas 30 years. .

Were this trend to continue, world population Were this trend to continue, world population would reach 27 billion in another hundred years would reach 27 billion in another hundred years

whilst energy consumption would increase whilst energy consumption would increase another 10 times. another 10 times.


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Exponential Growth is UnsustainableExponential Growth is Unsustainable

Unsustainable; as the world is already near the Unsustainable; as the world is already near the critical point when supply of energy barely critical point when supply of energy barely meets the demand. meets the demand.

Energy resources are limited and supply Energy resources are limited and supply trends are estimated to peak in a few short trends are estimated to peak in a few short decades from now.decades from now.

This realisation underlies demographers’ This realisation underlies demographers’ projections that world population growth must projections that world population growth must slow down in the near future. slow down in the near future.


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Estimates of world energy production Estimates of world energy production projected into the future in a scenario [3]projected into the future in a scenario [3]


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World population and projectionWorld population and projection


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Current Debate misses the PointCurrent Debate misses the Point

The current debates on the unsustainability of The current debates on the unsustainability of population growthpopulation growth

energy consumption trends and energy consumption trends and

degradation of the environment degradation of the environment

are important in raising publicare important in raising public awareness awareness

butbut Does not address the fundamental problem.Does not address the fundamental problem.


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We need one giant bold stepWe need one giant bold step

To safeguard Mankind’s unimpeded To safeguard Mankind’s unimpeded progress incremental moves are not progress incremental moves are not enoughenough

We need one giant bold step – We need one giant bold step – Development of a new limitless source of Development of a new limitless source of

energy energy Clean non-polluting energy which will Clean non-polluting energy which will

not further aggravate the environment. not further aggravate the environment.


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Present Energy Resources not sufficientPresent Energy Resources not sufficient

All energy resources are being depleted by the All energy resources are being depleted by the exponential growth of population and of average exponential growth of population and of average world per capita consumptionworld per capita consumption

New energy resources are not being developed fast New energy resources are not being developed fast enoughenough

Renewables are too diffused: low energy collection Renewables are too diffused: low energy collection density and poor net energy output; projection of density and poor net energy output; projection of renewables do not show the ability to sustain renewables do not show the ability to sustain historical rates of human population growth historical rates of human population growth combined with growth of per capita consumption.combined with growth of per capita consumption.


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Incremental Steps Important but not Incremental Steps Important but not Sufficient- New Source neededSufficient- New Source needed

What Mankind needs is not small What Mankind needs is not small increments extracted from energy increments extracted from energy conservationism or diffuse renewablesconservationism or diffuse renewables

What Mankind needs is one Giant StepWhat Mankind needs is one Giant StepA new clean limitless energy sourceA new clean limitless energy source


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Once-in-History DevelopmentOnce-in-History Development

This is not a pipe dreamThis is not a pipe dream 5 decades of research has gone into the processes of 5 decades of research has gone into the processes of

controlling nuclear fusion on earthcontrolling nuclear fusion on earth The stage is set for this energy revolution-this once The stage is set for this energy revolution-this once

in history developmentin history development


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STARS STARS Nature’s Plasma Fusion ReactorsNature’s Plasma Fusion Reactors


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STARS STARS Nature’s Plasma Fusion ReactorsNature’s Plasma Fusion Reactors

And a dream lies on the river

And a glamour veils the night

Whilst above the white stars quiver

With Fusion Burning-bright(adapted from Ciribiribin)


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Tokamak-planned nuclear fusion reactorTokamak-planned nuclear fusion reactor


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Magnetic Yoke to induce Plasma CurrentMagnetic Yoke to induce Plasma Current Field Coils to Produce suitable Magnetic Field ConfigurationField Coils to Produce suitable Magnetic Field Configuration


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What is a What is a PlasmaPlasma??

Four States of Matter

SolidLiquidaseousPlasma

Four States of Matter SOLID SOLID LIQUID LIQUID GASGAS PLASMAPLASMA

Matter heated to high temperatures

becomes a Plasma


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Characteristics of Plasma StateCharacteristics of Plasma State

Presence of electrons and ionsPresence of electrons and ions Electrically conductingElectrically conducting Interaction with electric & magnetic fieldsInteraction with electric & magnetic fields Control of ions & electrons: applicationsControl of ions & electrons: applications High energy densities/selective particle energiesHigh energy densities/selective particle energies -Cold plasmas: several eV’s; (1eV~10-Cold plasmas: several eV’s; (1eV~1044K)K) --Hot plasmas: keV’s ; (1keV~10Hot plasmas: keV’s ; (1keV~1077K)K) Most of matter in Universe is in the Plasma State Most of matter in Universe is in the Plasma State

(e.g. the STARS)(e.g. the STARS)


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Collisions in a PlasmaCollisions in a Plasma

The hotter the plasma is heated, the more energetic are the collisions


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Nuclear FusionNuclear Fusion

If a Collision is sufficiently energetic, nuclear fusion will occur


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Isotopes of hydrogen- Isotopes of hydrogen- Fuel of FusionFuel of Fusion


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Release of energy in FusionRelease of energy in Fusion

11HH2 2 + + 11HH3 3 22HeHe4 4 + + 00nn1 1 + 17.6 MeV+ 17.6 MeV


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Natural Fusion Reactors vsNatural Fusion Reactors vsFusion Experiments on EarthFusion Experiments on Earth


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JET (Joint European Torus) Project successfully JET (Joint European Torus) Project successfully completed 2000; reached Q=0.6, better than plannedcompleted 2000; reached Q=0.6, better than planned[Q is ratio of fusion energy generated/input energy to [Q is ratio of fusion energy generated/input energy to

start and heat the plasmastart and heat the plasma]]


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Inside JET


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Conversion of mass into EnergyConversion of mass into Energy


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Fusion Energy EquivalentFusion Energy Equivalent

50 cups water

1 thimble heavy water1 thimble heavy water, , extracted extracted from 50 cups of waterfrom 50 cups of water


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Summary of ConditionsSummary of Conditions

Technological Targets:Technological Targets: T> 100 million K (10keV)T> 100 million K (10keV) nt>10nt>102121 m m-3-3-sec-sec

n=10n=1020 20 mm-3-3, confined t=10s , confined t=10s


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Energy confinement time t Energy confinement time t scales as some functions of:scales as some functions of:

Plasma current IPlasma current I Major Radius RMajor Radius R Minor radius ‘a’Minor radius ‘a’ Toroidal Magnetic Field BToroidal Magnetic Field B

scaling law: scaling law: t~It~Ippa a RRb b aag g BBll

indices a,b,g,l all positiveindices a,b,g,l all positiveTo achieve sufficient value of ntT requires:To achieve sufficient value of ntT requires:

scaling of present generation of Tokamaksscaling of present generation of Tokamaks upwards in terms of:upwards in terms of:

I R, ‘a’ and BI R, ‘a’ and B


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Fusion Temperature attained Fusion Temperature attained Fusion confinement one step awayFusion confinement one step away


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International Collaboration to develop International Collaboration to develop Nuclear Fusion Energy-ITERNuclear Fusion Energy-ITER

1985- Geneva Superpower Summit:1985- Geneva Superpower Summit: Reagan (US) & Gorbachev (Soviet Union) agreed on Reagan (US) & Gorbachev (Soviet Union) agreed on

project to develop new cleaner, sustainable source of project to develop new cleaner, sustainable source of energy- Fusion energyenergy- Fusion energy

ITER project was bornITER project was born Initial signatories: former Soviet Union, USA, European Initial signatories: former Soviet Union, USA, European

Union (via EURATOM) & JapanUnion (via EURATOM) & Japan Joined by P R China & R Korea in 2003 & India 2005Joined by P R China & R Korea in 2003 & India 2005 ITER Agreement- signed in November 2006ITER Agreement- signed in November 2006


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ITER Construction has now started in ITER Construction has now started in Cadarache, FranceCadarache, France

First plasma planned 2018First plasma planned 2018First D-T planned 2022First D-T planned 2022


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ITERITER A more detailed drawingA more detailed drawing


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ITER (International Thermonuclear ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor)Experimental Reactor)


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Cooling and Heat TransferCooling and Heat Transfer


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Q>10 and Q>10 and BeyondBeyondITER : to demonstrate: possible to produce ITER : to demonstrate: possible to produce commercial energy from fusion.commercial energy from fusion.

Q= ratio of fusion power to input power.Q= ratio of fusion power to input power. Q ≥ 10 represents the scientific goal of ITER : Q ≥ 10 represents the scientific goal of ITER :

to deliver 10x the power it consumes. to deliver 10x the power it consumes. From 50 MW input power to 500 MW of fusion From 50 MW input power to 500 MW of fusion power - first fusion experiment to produce net power - first fusion experiment to produce net energy.energy.

Beyond ITER will be DEMO (early 2030’s), Beyond ITER will be DEMO (early 2030’s), demonstration fusion power plant which will put demonstration fusion power plant which will put fusion power into the grid as early as 2040fusion power into the grid as early as 2040


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Potential Next Step Fusion Burning ExperimentsPotential Next Step Fusion Burning Experiments


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Unlimited clean energy supplyUnlimited clean energy supply

no need to restrict no need to restrict the growth of energy consumption, the growth of energy consumption, a better standard of living ora better standard of living or the growth of population. the growth of population.

Figure: energy consumption into the 22nd century.Figure: energy consumption into the 22nd century. Such unlimited growth (curve 2 of Figure) need not Such unlimited growth (curve 2 of Figure) need not

imply unbridled wasteful consumption. imply unbridled wasteful consumption. The best practice of environmental conservatism could The best practice of environmental conservatism could

be incorporated into growth,be incorporated into growth, so that so that efficient and ‘green’ habits become part of the sustained efficient and ‘green’ habits become part of the sustained

culture of the human race.culture of the human race.


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Figure: ScenarioFigure: Scenario

Development of nuclear fusion energy is coming Development of nuclear fusion energy is coming not a moment too soon.not a moment too soon.

The critical point when total available energy The critical point when total available energy starts to decline is seen to be reached just starts to decline is seen to be reached just before the middle of this century;before the middle of this century;

Thereafter the Thereafter the consumption curve has to drop consumption curve has to drop (curve 1) & Man will have to cope with a (curve 1) & Man will have to cope with a decreasing supplydecreasing supply

unless the increasing shortfall is made up by unless the increasing shortfall is made up by nuclear fusion energy (curve 2)nuclear fusion energy (curve 2)


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How fast can we expect the take-How fast can we expect the take-up of nuclear fusion energy?up of nuclear fusion energy?

Example: Use History of the uptake of nuclear Example: Use History of the uptake of nuclear fission energy for our scenario time-line.fission energy for our scenario time-line.

The first commercial fission power station installed The first commercial fission power station installed at Calder Hall, UK, 1956 with 50 MWat Calder Hall, UK, 1956 with 50 MW. .

By 1960 1 GW was installedBy 1960 1 GW was installed. . By the late 70’s the installed nuclear fission power By the late 70’s the installed nuclear fission power

world-wide had reached 100 GWworld-wide had reached 100 GW.. From 1 GW to 100 GW in some 18 years (10-fold From 1 GW to 100 GW in some 18 years (10-fold

increase evry 9 years)increase evry 9 years)


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Example: Growth of Fission EnergyExample: Growth of Fission Energy

70’s and 80’s, pressure-group litigation 70’s and 80’s, pressure-group litigation & rising costs of fission reactors due to regulatory changes& rising costs of fission reactors due to regulatory changes

and falling fossil fuel prices made fission plants less attractiveand falling fossil fuel prices made fission plants less attractive The industry slowed down so that by the late 80’s installed The industry slowed down so that by the late 80’s installed

fission power had only grown to 300 GWfission power had only grown to 300 GW and by 2005 only to 370 GW, supplying some: and by 2005 only to 370 GW, supplying some: 15% of the world’s electricity consumption and15% of the world’s electricity consumption and 2.1% of total power consumption2.1% of total power consumption. .


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Using the History of the Development of Using the History of the Development of Nuclear Fission Power Plants as Example Nuclear Fission Power Plants as Example

for our Scenario Time-line:for our Scenario Time-line:

Scenario of our Figure assumes an installed 1 GW of commercial Scenario of our Figure assumes an installed 1 GW of commercial

nuclear fusion power plant in 2050 nuclear fusion power plant in 2050 Growing 10-fold every 9 years for 27 years to 1000 GW by 2077 Growing 10-fold every 9 years for 27 years to 1000 GW by 2077 and then slower growth (10-fold in 23 years) to 10000 GW by and then slower growth (10-fold in 23 years) to 10000 GW by

2100;2100; thereafter tripling every 50 years. (present long-term average)thereafter tripling every 50 years. (present long-term average) This is not unreasonable. By 2050 the world would know with a This is not unreasonable. By 2050 the world would know with a

certainty the desperation of its energy positioncertainty the desperation of its energy position


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The Scenario-with Fusion EnergyThe Scenario-with Fusion Energy Just into the next century fusion energy will take up the slack and Just into the next century fusion energy will take up the slack and

allow Mankind to continue its progress and growth (curve 2, allow Mankind to continue its progress and growth (curve 2, available energy, with fusion energy). available energy, with fusion energy).

The scenario shows that there will be several decades when the The scenario shows that there will be several decades when the constraints of energy shortage will be severely felt. Note the constraints of energy shortage will be severely felt. Note the flattening of the energy consumption from around 2040 to 2100. flattening of the energy consumption from around 2040 to 2100. (curve 2, with fusion energy) .(curve 2, with fusion energy) .

Such a period of stagnation in energy and corresponding Such a period of stagnation in energy and corresponding stagnation in world population (curve 4 showing world stagnation in world population (curve 4 showing world population scenario, with fusion energy)population scenario, with fusion energy) seems unavoidable even seems unavoidable even with the development and rapid adoption of fusion energywith the development and rapid adoption of fusion energy. .

Without fusion energy the scenario is as shown by the curve 1, Without fusion energy the scenario is as shown by the curve 1, depicting a severe downturn in the fortunes of Mankind with depicting a severe downturn in the fortunes of Mankind with world population dropping below 5 billion (curve 3, world world population dropping below 5 billion (curve 3, world population scenario, without fusion energy).population scenario, without fusion energy).


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Human Spirit Knows No BoundHuman Spirit Knows No Bound

The human spirit, The human spirit, its will to explore,its will to explore, to always seek new frontiers, to always seek new frontiers, the next Everest, the next Everest, deeper ocean floors, deeper ocean floors, the inner secrets of the atom: the inner secrets of the atom:

Iconised into human consciousness by the Iconised into human consciousness by the deeds of Christopher Columbus, Edmund deeds of Christopher Columbus, Edmund Hillary, Jacques Costeau, and Albert Einstein. Hillary, Jacques Costeau, and Albert Einstein.


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In the background of the In the background of the

ever-expanding universeever-expanding universeMankind’s boundless spirit will be Mankind’s boundless spirit will be

curbed by a limitation to growthcurbed by a limitation to growthThat was never meant to beThat was never meant to beThat should never be soThat should never be so


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Mankind’s Giant Step- Mankind’s Giant Step- Dawning of the Fusion age Dawning of the Fusion age Man should have an unlimited destinyMan should have an unlimited destiny To reach for the moon, as he already has To reach for the moon, as he already has

then to colonize it for its resourcesthen to colonize it for its resources Likewise to reach for the planetsLikewise to reach for the planets Ultimately-the starsUltimately-the stars Man’s spirit must and will remain Man’s spirit must and will remain

indomitableindomitable


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ConclusionConclusionIn this paper we have discussed:In this paper we have discussed:

Energy as the most basic of resourcesEnergy as the most basic of resources Correlation of energy consumption & wealthCorrelation of energy consumption & wealth Exponential growth of population & energy Exponential growth of population & energy

consumption per capita-unsustainableconsumption per capita-unsustainable Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy

source is developedsource is developed Nuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forwardNuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forward Scenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion EnergyScenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion Energy

22ndnd International Conference on Nuclear & International Conference on Nuclear & Renewable Energy ResourcesRenewable Energy Resources

4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey

Nuclear Fusion Energy- Nuclear Fusion Energy- MankindMankind’’s Giant Step s Giant Step ForwardForward

Sing Lee Sing Lee 1,2,3*1,2,3*& Sor Heoh Saw & Sor Heoh Saw 1,21,2

11Institute for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, AustraliaInstitute for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, Australia22INTI University College, 71800 Nilai, Malaysia INTI University College, 71800 Nilai, Malaysia

33Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore 637616Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore 637616

e-mails: e-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


55

Thank YouThank You

2 nd international conference on nuclear & renewable energy resources 4-7 july 2010, gazi...

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