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14 TRENDS, RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 2 An agile and innovative company Underground Metro Station in Warsaw, Poland

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Page 1: 2 AND OPPORTUNITIES TRENDS, RISKS - cemexnet.comcemexnet.com › CEMEX_IR2016 › descargas › trends-risks.pdf · (ERM) function to manage all risks and opportunities that could

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TRENDS, RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES2 An agile and innovative company

Underground Metro Station in Warsaw, Poland

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2.1 | Main global trends

The pace of change in the world is faster than ever. Global megatrends are influencing the current and future state of the construction industry. At CEMEX, we closely monitor trends affecting our business, including these top-line global societal challenges:

SOCIALPoverty, income inequality, aging population and unemployment

ECONOMICRelentless population growth and urbanization

ENVIRONMENTALClimate change, resource scarcity and biodiversity loss

GOVERNANCEIncreasing expectations for private sector to act responsibly and be proactive

The world’s growing population is among the key drivers of change expected for the construction industry. Several megatrends are also impacting the future of the construction value chain. According to the Buildings Performance Institute Europe (BPIE), energy availability, demographic changes, the digital and broader technological revolution, and climate change mitigation will challenge the construction value chain in several ways:

Growing interest in innovative building technologies among consumers

Less demand for new construction and growing demand for existing properties

Increase of industrialized and prefabricated building pro-cesses

Higher demand for flexible, smaller, lifelong, and multi-generational housing types

Proliferation of energy suppliers and energy-supply ser-vices (e.g., cost-adapted pricing, green energy, comfort services, etc.)

Increasing renewable energy production in buildings

Interaction of buildings with the energy market (demand response, energy storage, and energy production)

Need for affordable renovation techniques

Shared use of buildings (e.g., offices, hotels, and residences).

As the world transitions to a low-carbon economy (by 2050), BPIE expects a growing need for a higher-skilled workforce, new business models, different and smarter building ar-chetypes, and industrialized construction methods. For the construction sector, this will require training experts in the fields of insulation, renewable energy installation, and build-ing automation, among others.

Additionally, it will be important to develop strategies that address the skills gap in the sector and attract more young people to begin careers in construction, while retaining expe-rienced staff to help develop them.

As global megatrends evolve and impact the construction materials market, we will continue to assess and analyze how CEMEX can most positively influence these and other societal challenges worldwide.

pod Martwa Wisla Tunnel, Polonia

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MEGATRENDS SHAPING THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY'S FUTURE

ECONOMICDEMAND IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES GLOBALIZED MARKETS AGING INFRASTRUCTURE MASSIVE FINANCING NEED

65% of the next decade’s growth in construction will happen in emerging countries

1 in 2 engineering & construction companies plan to move into new geographies

1 in 3 German railway bridges are more than 100 years old

$1tn annual investments are needed to close the global infrastructure gap

ENVIRONMENTALRESOURCE SCARCITY SUSTAINABILITY REQUIREMENTS ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Nº1 consumer of global raw materials is the construction industry

50% of the solid waste in the United States is produced by the construction industry

30% of global greenhouse gas emissions are attributable to buildings

WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS HOW CEMEX CAN MOST POSITIVELY INFLUENCE SOCIETAL CHALLENGES WORLDWIDE.

2.1 | Main global trends

Concrete is the most-used material in the world after water—with over 25 billion tons annually consumed—and the cement segment alone accounts for 5% per year of total global CO2 emissions. As a result, regulators, customers, and others are challenging the industry to innovate and develop more durable, safe, sustainably sourced, and energy-efficient products.

As a leading global supplier of building materials, we recognize our responsibility to support society’s devel-opment needs in a sustainable manner. To achieve this, CEMEX provides concrete solutions to the challenges of urbanization and climate change.

Performance around several issues will drive compet-itiveness within the construction materials industry, including:

Reducing direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from operations

Reducing air pollution that can create hazards for human health and the environment

Managing energy efficiency and sourcing

Securing water supplies without risking local water systems

Reducing and managing hazardous and solid waste generated during operations

Mitigating the biodiversity impacts of raw material extraction activities

Ensuring health and safety

Developing innovative solutions to reduce the lifecycle impacts of building products

Ensuring transparency in product pricing and avoiding direct or indirect market manipulation.

Source: Shaping the Future of Construction: A Breakthrough in Mindset and Technology, World Economic Forum, May 2016

SOCIALURBANIZATION AND HOUSING CRISIS TALENT AND AGING WORKFORCE

200k people are added daily to urban areas and need afforda-ble and healthy houses

50% of general contractors are concerned about finding experienced workers for their workforce

GOVERNANCESLOW PERMIT AND APPROVAL PROCESS

$1.2tn of infrastructure could be added by 2030 if all countries committed to specific time limits for approvals

Alcanar Cement Plant, Spain

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RISK FOLLOW-UP

RISK IDENTIFICATIONRISK DISCUSSION AND

MITIGATION STRATEGY AT EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

RISK OVERSIGHT AT BOARD LEVEL

RISK INTEGRATION AND ANALYSIS

RISK MITIGATION/ TOLERANCE

2.2 | Risks and opportunities

CEMEX has an Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) function to manage all risks and opportunities that could impact the company’s objectives. ERM has become fundamental in supporting top management in the decision-making process, reducing the impact of adverse events, and capitalizing on opportunities resulting from a more complex and uncertain environment.

Global, regional, and country risk agendas are developed on a half-year basis, considering all types of risks and emerging concerns that could impact the company in the short, medi-um, and long term. Risks are identified considering a combi-nation of a bottom-up and a top-down approach, which also considers identification of potential opportunities.

After their analysis and assessment, risks are prioritized based on their impact and probability of materialization, and a mitigation strategy is defined for their treatment.

The ERM function is complemented by other risk manage-ment processes within the company, such as internal audits, internal controls, compliance, and financial risk management.

Additionally, key material risks are identified, evaluated and tracked by the Corporate Practices and Finance Committee at the Board of Directors level.

RISKS ARE PRIORITIZED BASED ON THEIR IMPACT AND PROBABILITY OF MATERIALIZATION, AND A MITIGATION STRATEGY IS DEFINED.

At CEMEX, risk management is present at the global, regional, and local level, and follows a process that emphasizes risk discussion and mitigation at top man-agement and risk oversight at the board level.

Caracolito Cement Plant, Colombia

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The following is a description of some of the main risks and opportunities faced by CEMEX and their corresponding mitigation strategies:

OPPORTUNITIES

2.2 | Risks and opportunities

1 2POPULATION GROWTH AND URBANIZATION

According to the United Nations, 54% of the world population currently lives in cities, and this proportion will increase to 66% by 2050. This implies that 200,000 people will move daily into urban areas. Consequently, urban areas will need to provide solutions for the challenges posed by the increasing number of people, who will depend on them to live, move, work, and interact. This in-flux of people will require careful planning among policymakers and the private sector to ensure adequate investments are made in affordable housing, upgraded highways, bridges, airports, railroads, and other infra-structure worldwide, while protecting our planet’s natural resources and mitigating the effects of climate change.

CEMEX ACTIONSCEMEX is uniquely positioned to address many of the challenges cities are facing:

Offering building products and solutions that meet the most demanding con-struction and sustainability performance standards

Contributing resilient infrastructure that withstands the wear and tear of intensive use and extreme weather conditions

Providing affordable and sustainable housing for the rapidly growing number of people migrating to urban areas

Reducing waste disposed in urban land-fills by co-processing it as a fuel in our cement kilns.

INCREASED DEMAND FOR SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTS AND SOLUTIONS

As a significant contributor to global re-source use and greenhouse gas emissions, the building industry is challenged to de-velop products with superior sustainability attributes and to implement sustainable construction practices that minimize its carbon footprint, reduce its impact on the environment, and preserve natural resources. In this regard, it is estimated that the built environment is responsible for approximate-ly 25 to 40% of total energy use, 30% of raw material use, 30 to 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and 30 to 40% of solid waste generation.

CEMEX ACTIONSOur goal is to become the global leader in sustainable construction. We leverage our leading-edge innovation and agility to devel-op superior building products and solutions that perform at the highest standards across all applications. We have designed and de-veloped a growing portfolio of special con-crete products with clear, tangible benefits for sustainable construction applications. These products include:

Resilia: Fiber-reinforced concrete with hyper strength and ductility that can re-place steel reinforcements in concrete

Hidratium: Self-curing concrete that tolerates extreme conditions (e.g., wind, heat, direct sunlight) through sealing, water-retention, and low-shrinkage mechanisms

Insularis: A 100% concrete solution for thermal insulation, acoustic insulation, and fire resistance that eliminates ther-mal bridges.

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2.2 | Risks and opportunities

2 POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE COUNTRIES IN WHICH WE OPERATEECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN COUNTRIES WHERE WE OPERATE

The economic condition of the countries where we operate may adversely affect our business, financial condition, results, and prospects.

We face risks particular to each region where we operate. The U.S. economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, and the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates. The impact of increasing U.S. dollar interest rates could not only have an impact on the U.S. economy, but also on that of emerging mar-kets—for example, through their currencies—and thus, potentially, on our consolidated results as well. Mexico’s currency has expe-rienced depreciation, which could increase inflation, and the interest rate hikes intended to combat it might slow economic activity. Furthermore, more protectionist policies by Mexico’s key trading partners could also un-dermine its growth potential.

Europe has also grown at a moderate pace, and a new significant challenge, stemming from a weak economy in the European Union, could damage the economic stability of the whole Euro zone. Upcoming elections in France and Germany could also play a role in the power dynamics of the region as a whole.

The Chinese economy presents another po-tential source of risk. If it were to experience a sudden and unexpected deceleration, it has the potential to affect global economic activity.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONSWe have implemented several initiatives to counter the challenging global economic environment:

Value before Volume strategy. Our strate-gy focuses on value enhancement, opti-mizing gains in customer relationships, and generating sufficient returns that allow us to reinvest in our business.

Cost containment. Over the past years, we have identified and begun implementing global cost-reduction initiatives intended to reduce our annual cost structure to a level consistent with our product de-mand, as well as our own companywide program to enhance competitiveness.

Asset optimization. We manage our asset base by divesting non-core assets and optimizing working capital.

1Political uncertainty and its potential eco-nomic and social consequences could ad-versely impact our operations and profit-ability. Any political result that significantly affects a country’s economic development or its business environment has the potential to impact our operations.

Social stability in some of the countries in which we operate is more susceptible to po-litical events than in others. Some countries where we have operations have seen mass demonstrations and protests, which have the potential to impact the economic and busi-ness environment and adversely affect our operations’ results.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONSWe have implemented several initiatives to counter the effects of political risks:

Continued monitoring. We continuously monitor important political develop-ments in the countries in which we oper-ate in order to anticipate any event that could have an impact on our operations. Through this monitoring, we define the best way to maintain a successful busi-ness operation in each particular scenario.

Business continuity plans. We have busi-ness continuity plans to minimize busi-ness disruption in situations where the social or political environment in which we operate presents risks to the continu-ation of operations.

RISKS

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2.2 | Risks and opportunities

PRICE VOLATILITY AND UNCERTAIN AVAILABILITY OF MATERIALS REQUIRED TO RUN OUR BUSINESS

Should existing suppliers cease operations or reduce/eliminate production of these materials, sourcing costs could increase sig-nificantly or require us to find alternatives, which could have a material adverse effect on our business. Additionally, scarcity of natural resources, such as water and aggre-gates reserves, in some countries where we operate could have a material adverse effect on our costs and operations’ results.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONSWe are not dependent on our suppliers, and we aim to secure the supply of required materials through long-term renewable contracts and framework agreements, which ensures better supply management.

6REGULATORY CHANGES AND INCREASED SCRUTINY

We are subject to the laws and regulations of the countries where we operate. Any material changes in such laws and regulations and/or any delay in assessing the impact and/or adapting to such changes may have an adverse effect on our business.

If not complied with, these laws and regula-tions expose us to the risk of potential costs in the form of fines and other sanctions, com-pensation payments to third parties, remedia-tion costs, and damage to our reputation.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONSWe continuously work to comply with chang-es in laws and regulations in all of the coun-tries where we operate. We devote significant time and resources to assess and, if required, adjust our operations to any such changes.

Our employees abide by our Code of Ethics and Business Conduct. The Code addresses anti-bribery, related-person transactions, health and safety, environmental respon-sibility, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, financial controls, and preservation of assets.

54DEBT LEVEL AND CREDIT AGREEMENT/INSTRUMENT RESTRICTIONS

We have debt and other financial obliga-tions maturing in the next several years. Our ability to comply with our principal debt maturities depends on EBITDA generation, asset sales, and other measures that could be affected by external factors.

Additionally, we have credit agreements and debt instruments that contain several re-strictions and covenants. Our ability to com-ply may be affected by economic conditions and volatility in foreign exchange rates, as well as by overall conditions in the financial and capital markets and the construction sector.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONS We have a financial strategy defined to reduce our debt level mainly through:

1. Debt prepayments through assets sales and focus on EBITDA generation

2. Lowering financial costs3. Managing debt profile

Our discipline and consistency in reducing our leverage and strengthening our capital structure has translated into improvements in our credit rating. Regaining an invest-ment-grade capital structure is one of our main priorities.

3MORE COMPLEX COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS

The markets in which we operate are highly competitive and are served by numerous es-tablished companies with recognized brand names, as well as new market entrants and increasing imports. These companies com-pete based on various factors, often employ-ing aggressive commercial strategies to gain market share.

If we are not able to compete effectively, we may lose substantial market share, our net sales could decline or grow at a slower rate, and our business and operations’ results would be harmed.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONSWe expect to maintain and grow our market positions in cement, ready-mix concrete, and aggregates—as well as vertically inte-grating these businesses—by being one of the most customer-centric competitors in the construction materials industry.

We also continue our Value before Volume strategy to reflect the high value-creating capability of our products and services.

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CYBER AND INFORMATION SECURITY

We rely on several information technologies and automated operating systems to manage or support our operations. To maintain busi-ness efficiencies, it is critical these systems function properly. In addition, our systems, as well as those provided by our third-par-ty service providers, may be vulnerable to damage, disruption or intrusion, caused by circumstances beyond our control, such as physical or electronic break-ins, power out-ages, natural disasters, computer system or network failures, viruses or malware, unau-thorized access, and cyber-attacks.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONSWe take proactive measures to secure our IT systems and electronic information and have business continuity plans in place if any business disruption occurs.

HEALTH AND SAFETY RELATED RISKS

Activities in our business can be hazardous and can cause injury to people or damage to property in certain circumstances. Our production facilities require individuals to work with chemicals, equipment, and other materials that may potentially cause harm, injury or fatalities when used without due care. Accidents or injuries that occur at our facilities could result in disruptions to our business and may have legal and regulatory consequences.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONSHealth and safety (H&S) is a top priority for CEMEX. We strive to have zero EHS incidents by improving how we reinforce safe behav-iors with our employees and contractors, strengthening the accountability of manage-ment for ensuring safe behavior, implement-ing workplace improvements on a regular basis and promoting a safety culture in our every day activities.

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WE TAKE PROACTIVE MEASURES TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF ADVERSE EVENTS.

2.2 | Risks and opportunities

ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS

Construction activity, and thus demand for our products, decreases substantially during periods of cold weather, when it snows or when heavy or sustained rainfalls occur. Consequently, demand for our products is significantly lower during the winter in tem-perate countries and during the rainy season in tropical countries. Such adverse weather conditions can negatively affect our business results if they occur with unusual intensity or last longer than usual in our major markets, especially during peak construction periods.

Additionally, severe adverse weather con-ditions (e.g., floods, typhoons, hurricanes) have the potential to damage our assets and disrupt our operations.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONSWe have business continuity plans in place at our main operations designed to avoid major disruptions to our business. In ad-dition, some of our main operations and assets are insured against such events. Although in most cases, the insurance pol-icy does not cover the total impact that an adverse event could have, which limits its effect.

8VOLATILITY IN ENERGY MARKETS

Our operations consume significant amounts of power and fuel. Energy prices generally reflect certain volatility, particu-larly in times of political turbulence in Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and other countries in South America, the Middle East, and Africa. Even though power and fuel prices have recently decreased, future cost increases may have an adverse material effect on our business.

CEMEX MITIGATION ACTIONSWe have continued efforts to increase our use of alternative fuels, which has resulted in reduced energy costs. In addition, we have developed processes and products that allow us to reduce heat consumption in our kilns, which also reduce energy costs.

Finally, we have developed a large portfolio of clean power projects that not only provide low-cost energy, but also provide certainty in future energy costs.

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