1.world juice 2009_nice (frança)_5 a 8 de outubro de 2009
DESCRIPTION
Apresentação de slidesTRANSCRIPT
Program
• The Association - Founding Members- Main objectives
• Export destinations and Performance of the Brazilian Orange Juice
• Land: sugar cane and impact on production
• Brazilian Citriculture Challenges and Trends
The AssociationThe Association
Founded last June by four members whose production ofj i d 95% f h B iliorange juice corresponds to 95% of the Brazilian
production and 98% of the Brazilian OJ exports
Our Main ObjectivesOur Main Objectives• Defend collective claims of Brazilian citrus exporters nationally
and internationally
C b b d• Combat barriers to trade
• Encourage orange juice consumption
• Promote the sectors’ image
• Support technical studies to find solutions for sector-related problemsproblems
• Defend institutional interests
• Provide stakeholders with clear, reliable and updated information
• Interact with other agribusiness entities
Brazilian Exports – Orange Juice FCOJ equivalent
1,600,000
t)q
800 000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
tal e
xpor
ted
(t
200 000
400,000
600,000
800,000Tot
0
200,000
89/9
0
90/9
1
91/9
2
92/9
3
93/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
Season
Source: Secex
Currency increased cost of production and decreased price in US$ terms
3,50
4,00
price in US$ terms
2,50
3,00
r USD
1,00
1,50
2,00
BR
L pe
3 3
0,00
0,50
1,00
31/01
/0330
/04/03
31/07
/0331
/10/03
31/01
/0430
/04/04
31/07
/0431
/10/04
31/01
/0530
/04/05
31/07
/0531
/10/05
31/01
/0630
/04/06
31/07
/0631
/10/06
31/01
/0730
/04/07
31/07
/0731
/10/07
31/01
/080/0
4/08
1/07/0
8/10
/0801
/0904
/09 7/093 3 31 31 30
/31
/031
/131
/0130
/0431
/07/
BRL per USD USD per EUR
Demand on US reacting compared to the previous cropsUS Orange Juice Demand (million gallons on each 4 weeks period)
58
52
54
56
ons
46
48
50
mill
ion
gallo
42
44
46m
40
25-O
ct25
-Nov
25-D
ec
25-Ja
n
25-Feb
25-M
ar25
-Apr
25-M
ay25
-Jun
25-Ju
l25
-Aug
25-S
ep
Source: Nielsen
06/07 07/08 08/09
Land: Orange Juice and Sugarcaneg g
Sugarcane – São Paulo State Orange – São Paulo State
Source: São Paulo State Government – LUPA Project
Area in hectares and % of the classes of land use displaced for sugarcane expansion in use displaced for sugarcane expansion in São Paulo state
2007 2008
Source: “Sugarcane Ethanol contributions to climate change mitigation and the environment “- Wageningen Academic Publishers
Sugar Pricesg
Sugar Price
26
SPLO Land Price
10.000
16
18
20
22
24
cts/
lb
4 000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
US
$/h
a
10
12
14
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr-0
9
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug-0
9
Sep-
09
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
Nov-Dez/
01Mai-J
un/02
Nov-Dez/
02Mai-J
un/03
Nov-Dez/
03Mai-J
un/04
Nov-Dez/
04Mai-J
un/05
Nov-Dez/
05Maio
-Jun/0
6Nov-
Dez/06
Maio-J
un/07
Nov-Dez/
07May-
Jun/0
8Nov-
Dez/08
May-Jun/0
9
No M No M No M No M No
Ma No
Ma No Ma
No Ma
Pressure to erradicate orange groves to plant sugar cane is increasing since sugar price on ICE moved up close to 100% since
January 2009
Source: ICE Futures
Current Challenges
• Greening controlSão Paulo
W t (9 99%)
Northwest (0,10%)
North (3,67%)October 2004: 3,41%September 2007: 12,89%
Greening Evolution:
West (9,99%)
Center (33,10%)
South (35,93%)
April 2008: 18,57%April 2009: 24,01%
Source – Fundecitrus
Percentage of plots with incurrence of infected trees.
Current Challenges
• Consumption levels fell between 2001 and 2009 (Europe 10%, USA 29%, World 17%) however some recovery has been perceived
• Low prices of orange juice in the international market (50% decrease between May 2007 and May 2009)
• Production costs management (agricultural inputs, measures against Production costs management (agricultural inputs, measures against diseases)
• Greening control
• WTO Panel – on Zeroing
• Improve the national Data, Transparency and Cooperation with i t ti l i tiinternational organizations
• Disseminate information about the benefits of orange juice for health