1west of england area rail studies - david crockett 08/02/2012 west of england area rail studies...
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1 West of England Area Rail Studies - David Crockett08/02/2012
West of England Area Rail Studies
Outline SummaryThis presentation summarises the work produced to date as part of these studies.
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Introductions
David Crockett – Project Manager
• Transport Economist – 20 years experience
• Strategic Rail Studies• Thameslink
• HS2
• Industry process RUS / RPA
• Advisor to Rail Franchises on demand & revenue forecasts
• Advice on transport appraisal to DfT
Graeme Pollard – Rail Operations Specialist
• Rail Operator – 20+ years experience
• Worked for rail operators
• Numerous projects assessing rail capacity
• Advisor to Rail Franchises on operational capacity
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Process
Operations
• What is possible?
• What is efficient?
Demand/cost/revenue
• Trade off
• What is affordable – capital / revenue costs
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Filton BankFour-track Railway Infrastructure
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Filton Bank
• What can be delivered without it? – not much!
• Allows for the capacity to do other things rather than delivering service enhancements itself.
• Filton Bank enhancements do not include four-tracking between BTM and Parson Street stations.
• Filton Bank enhancements will not deliver any new stations in the area – per se.
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PHASE 1 - Portishead to Bristol Temple Meads
New service and infrastructure
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Portishead to Bristol Temple Meads
• New service between Portishead & Bristol Temple Meads with extension to Severn Beach.
• Hourly service provides links to Bristol and Severn Beach.
• Operational capacity to introduce an hourly shuttle between Bristol and Portishead thus providing a half-hourly service.
• Additional stations, Portishead, and Pill.
• Estimated capital costs = £32.9million (£25.1m for track and signalling, £7.75m for two new stations)
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PHASE 1 - Bath to Bristol ShuttleNew service
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Bath to Bristol Shuttle
• New service between Bath Spa & Bristol Temple Meads, with extension to Severn Beach to provide a cross-Bristol (East-West) service.
• Providing an additional hourly service between Bath and Bristol, & thus 2 tph at Keynesham and Oldfield Park.
• Due to constraints for turn round at Bath Spa, potential turn round would be undertaken at Bathampton (requires implementation of turnback capability).
• Estimated capital cost = £2.76million (Bathampton turn back).
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PHASE 1 - Enhancement of Severn Beach service
Cross-Bristol Links
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Enhancements to Severn Beach service
• Potential for Enhanced and New Services.
• Can be combined to link to Portishead & Bath, providing hourly cross-Bristol services.
• Half hourly service between Severn Beach & Bristol Temple Meads, with hourly extensions to Bath and Portishead.
• Can accommodate additional station at Portway (Park and Ride).
• No additional Capital costs.
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Demand – Revenue – Operating Costs
• Initial results are promising.
• Based around a set of assumptions that require further investigation.
• Assumptions assume growth in key parts of the network, especially Temple Meads Enterprise Zone.
• Potential to be included in core franchise specification.
• BUT More detailed assessment is required.
• Train Operators always form their own views on the market potential
• Strong need to engage with the franchise bidders to press the case for Phase 1 Metro.
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Phase 1 Summary
Service Level Provision – Post Phase 1• Oldfield Park / Keynsham 2tph
• Portishead Line 2tph
• Severn Beach Line 2 tph
• Parson St – Bedminster additional 1 tph with stopping of Taunton – Cardiff service
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PHASE 2 - Henbury LoopNew service and infrastructure
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Henbury Loop• New Service between Bristol Temple
Meads & Henbury.
• Likely to be an hourly service between Bristol & Henbury.
• Potential for continuation of service to link with Severn Beach Line, although it is unlikely that journey times would be competitive.
• Estimated capital costs (with two new stations) = £21 million
• Base Scheme includes additional stations at Henbury & Filton North
• Capacity on line for stops serving Horfield & Ashley Down – business case for these would need to be proven.
• Links to new development of Filton Airfield and wider Henbury area (potential funding mechanism).
• Service is not proposed to stop at Stapleton Road and Lawrence Hill, due to operational capacity with other proposed services.
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PHASE 2 - Enhancement of rail service to Yate
New service
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Enhancement of services to Yate
• New Service between Weston-super-Mare & Yate.
• Provide an additional hourly service between Bristol Temple Meads & Yate.
• Cross Bristol links (North-South) with the extension to Weston-super-Mare.
• Estimated capital cost (turn back facility at Yate)= £4.2 million.
• Further investigations are being carried out to improve the operational efficiency of the Yate turnback.
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Demand – Revenue – Operating Costs
• Initial results are promising.
• Based around a set of assumptions that require further investigation.
• Predicated on growth proposals at Filton Airfield and at Yate.
• Yate service requires further investigation to improve operational efficiency.
• Potential to be included in core franchise specification.
• BUT More detailed assessment is required.
• Train Operators always form their own views on the market potential
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Phase 2 Summary
Service Level Provision – Post Phase 2• PHASE 1
• Oldfield Park / Keynsham 2tph
• Portishead Line 2tph
• Severn Beach Line 2 tph
• PHASE 2
• Henbury to BTM – 1 tph – with stops at Filton North and Filton Abbey Wood. Scope for increase to 2tph – but additional infrastructure may be required for freight / passenger interface.
• Yate to BTM - 2 tph
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New Stations Potential
• Build Base Service Levels
• Issues for New Stations
• Capital Funding
• Revenue Funding
• Operational capacity for additional stops
• Impact on existing train users
• Portishead – Pill – delivered as part of Portishead scheme
• Henbury – Filton North delivered as part of Henbury scheme
• Strong potential, but business case needs to be proven with:
• Saltford
• Ashton Gate
• Corsham
• Ashley Down / Horfield
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Greater Bristol Metro – Phases 1 & 2
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What is Delivered? Significant change in Rail Provision
• PHASE 1
• £40m investment – primarily on Portishead
• Half hourly Portishead – BTM, plus cross city run to Severn Beach
• Half hourly Bath – BTM, plus cross city run to Severn Beach
• Half hourly Severn Beach – BTM – running through to Bath and Portishead
• Change Stopping pattern on Cardiff – Taunton to allow stops at Parson St / Bedminster
• PHASE 2
• Henbury – BTM – once Filton built out
• Weston – Yate – to provide Yate half hourly
• Station Package with establishment of improved service levels “build it and they will come”
• Phasing approach fits with industry plans
• Approach is future proof – Phases 1 and 2 do not negate future phases.
• Credible response to Industry consultation process.