1st wave america’s voice/ld 2016 tracking poll

8/17/2019 1st Wave America’s Voice/LD 2016 Tracking Poll

1/27

April 20, 2016

LATINO VOTERS AND

THE 2016 ELECTION __________________________

Sylvia Manzano, PhD

PrincipalLatino Decisions


2/27

Overview

Latino vote will approach 12.5 million in 20

What effect will positioning on immigrationhave on 2016 presidential contenders

1st of three AV/LD studies (July, October) Latino voters in 2016. Check back soon…


3/27

The Research

Sponsored by

Implementedby Latino

Decisions

N= 2,200 Latino registered voters

Nationally representative of registered Latino

Conducted April 3-13, 2016

Landline, cell and online blended sample

Margin of error is +/- 2.1%

Interview in Spanish or English at subject’s d


4/27

The Research

Sponsored by

Implementedby Latino

Decisions

Disclosure note: In August 2015, Matt Barreto and Gary SDecisions were hired as consultants to the Hillary Clinton

campaign. This study was not coordinated, sponsored, or

endorsed by any campaign, party, or political organization

directed by Dr. Sylvia Manzano, Principal at Latino Decisio


5/27

Most Important Issue Facing Latin

Community: Immigration

Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016

What are the

most

important

issues facing

the Latino

community

that you thinkCongress and

the President

should

address?

41%

24%

16%

Immigration Economy Education Ant


6/27

41%

24%

16%

10%

Immigration

Economy

Education

Anti-Latino/immigrantdiscrimination

What are the most important issues facing the Latino

community that you think Congress and the Presidentshould address?

13%

13%

Economy

Immigration

Education

Health care

What are the most important issues tha

and the President should address?

Immigration Remains High Prio


7/27

Favorability Indicators


73%

61%

61%

36%

27%

9%

23%

32%

24%

52%

37%

87%

4

7

15

12

36

4

Obama

Clinton

Sanders

Cruz

Kasich

Trump

Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know


8/27

Favorability Indicators


73%

61%

61%

36%

27%

9%

23%

32%

24%

52%

37%

87%

4

7

15

12

36

4

Obama

Clinton

Sanders

Cruz

Kasich

Trump

Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know

Among self-identified Republi

73% Trump unfavorable

56% Cruz unfavorable


9/27

Clinton Match-Ups


76%Clinton

64%Clinton

11%Trump

29%Cruz


10/27

Sanders Match-Ups


78%Sanders

65%Sanders

11%Trump

26%Cruz


11/27

Perceptions of Party:

Interest in Latino Community


Which statementdo you agree withmost: TheRepublican/Democratic Party:

Truly cares aboutthe Latinocommunity

Doesn’t care toomuch aboutLatinos

Is sometimeshostile to theLatino community

14%

42%

31%

53%

20%

12%

Truly cares Doesn't care much Hostile

Republican Party Democratic Party

73% believe GOP e

doesn’t care or is

hosti le to Latinos


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Increasing Welcome or Hostility


In recent years,do you think theRepublican/Democraticparty hasbecome:

More welcomingto Latinos,

More hostile toLatinos,

Or hasn’t reallychanged

15%

42%

35

47%

10%

Welcoming Hostile N

Republicans Democrats


13/27


Increasing Welcome or Hostility


In recent years,do you think theRepublican/Democraticparty hasbecome:

More welcomingto Latinos,

More hostile toLatinos,

Or hasn’t reallychanged

15%

42%

35

47%

10%

Welcoming Hostile N

Republicans Democrats

C did I i i Vi


14/27

Candidate Immigration Views

Impact Party


Do [candidate]

views on

immigrants or

immigration

make you

more-or-less

likely to vote for

the [candidate

party] in

November?

Trump

9%

Cruz

22%

Sanders

63%

-78%-55%

-15%

-100%

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

More likely vote for candidate's party Less likely vote for can

I t f P id ti l C did t


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Impact of Presidential Candidates

Support / Opposition to DACA on V


In June 2012 PresidentObama announced the

deferred action for

childhood arrivals

program (DACA) that

provides temporary legal

work permits to

undocumented

immigrant youth, called

DREAMers. TheRepublican presidential

candidates want to end

this program. Does this

make you more-or-less

likely to vote for the

Republican Party this

November?

12%

73%

More Likely Less Likely N



16/27




In June 2012 PresidentObama announced the

deferred action for

childhood arrivals

program (DACA) that

provides temporary legal

work permits to

undocumented

immigrant youth, called

DREAMers. TheDemocratic presidential

candidates want to

continue this program.

Does this make you

more-or-less likely to

vote for the Democratic

Party this November?

74%

13%


Democratic



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Democratic candidateswant to continue DAPA.

Does this make you

more/less likely to vote

for a Democrat in

November?

Republican candidates

want to end DACA.

Does this make youmore/less likely to vote

for a Republican in

November?

74%

13% 13%12%

73%

More Likely Less Likely No effe

Democratic Republican

Note: 33%

Latino vot

DACA app



18/27


Support / Opposition to DAPA on V


14%

74%


Republican

In November of 2014President Obama took

executive action, known as

DAPA, to stop the deportation

of immigrant parents with

American children who have

been in the U.S. for five years

or more. DAPA would allow

these immigrants to apply for

temporary work permits. The

Republican presidential

candidates want to end this

program. Does this make you

more-or-less likely to vote for

the Republican Party this

November?



19/27




In November of 2014President Obama took

executive action, known as

DAPA, to stop the deportation

of immigrant parents with

American children who have

been in the U.S. for five years

or more. DAPA would allow

these immigrants to apply for

temporary work permits. The

Democratic presidential

candidates want to continue

this program. Does this make

you more-or-less likely to vote

for the Democratic Party this

November?

74%

15%


Democratic



20/27




Democraticcandidates want tocontinue DAPA.Does this makeyou more/less likelyto vote for aDemocrat inNovember?

Republicancandidates want to

end DACA. Doesthis make youmore/less likely tovote for aRepublican inNovember?

74%

15%

2

14%

74%


Democratic Republican


21/27

Trump: Deportation forces


Republicanpresidentialcandidate DonaldTrump haspromised that if heis elected, he willwould deport everyundocumented

immigrant throughthe use ofdeportation forces.Does this make youmore-or-less likelyto vote for Trump?

MuchMore 5%

SomewhatLess

7%

MuchLess83%

DK3%

Net

-83

Less

35% of Latino

know someon

deported or de

for immigratio


22/27

Cruz: Self-Deport


Republicanpresidentialcandidate Ted Cruzhas promised that ifhe is electedpresident he willdeport everyundocumented

immigrant throughself-deportation.Does this make youmore-or-less likelyto vote for Cruz?

MuchMore 5%

SomewhatMore 2%

SomewhatLess13%

MuchLess61%

Don’t

Know12%

Net

-60

Less

35% of Latino

know someon

deported or de

for immigratio

Latino Voter Ties to


23/27

Latino Voter Ties to

Undocumented Community


Thinking about allthe people in your

family, your friends,

co-workers, and

other people you

know, do you know

anyone who is an

undocumentedimmigrant?

Yes57%

DK4%

No39%


24/27

Interest and Enthusiasm 201

Thinking aheadto the November

2016 presidential

election, would

you say you are

more

enthusiastic

about voting in

2016, or that you

were more

enthusiastic

about voting

back in 2012?

More 201648%

Same16%

More 201231%

NotSure5%



25/27

Reason for Enthusiasm in 2016


What isdifferent about

2016 that

makes you

more

enthusiastic to

vote this time?

1%

3%

3%

3%

4%

10%

13%

16%

Want to elect Rubio

Against Clinton

Elect Cruz

Against Cruz

Vote for 1st Latino president

Vote for 1st woman president

Elect Sanders

Elect Clinton

Against Trump


26/27

Key Findings

See parties heading in opposite directions on immigand general disposition towards them as Latinos.

Spike in concern about anti-Latino/immigrant discrimination

Enthusiasm largely driven by interest in stopping Trump.

Ties to immigrant community at center of policy differenc

political attacks: More than half know someone undocumented

1 out of 3 know someone deported/detained

1 out of 3 also know DACA applicants


27/27

TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS

POSTED AT LATINODECISIONS.CO

1st wave america’s voice/ld 2016 tracking poll

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