1ret stakeholder meeting 19 january 2010 road equivalent tariff study stakeholder meeting – 19...

1 RET Stakeholder Meeting19 January 2010

Road Equivalent Tariff StudyStakeholder Meeting – 19 January 2010

19 January 20102 RET Stakeholder Meeting

Agenda

• Presentation

• Monitoring Programme

• Summary

• Performance Overview

• Discussion

• Interim Evaluation

• Carryings (Pilot vs Non-Pilot)

• Economic impacts

• Price data

• Social and environmental impacts

• Discussion

• Date of next meeting

• AOCB


Aims for today

• To provide an update on the monitoring and evaluation of the RET Pilot scheme, and in particular:

• Highlight changes made to the monitoring programme.

• Highlight emerging findings from the Interim Evaluation.

• Discuss with stakeholders key issues with regards to the monitoring and evaluation work in 2010.


RET - 3 Phases

• Phase 1 – RET options

• Completed May 2008

• Phase 2 – Monitoring the Pilot scheme

• Baseline surveys August 2008.

• Ongoing data collection throughout the Pilot.

• Phase 3 – Evaluation of the Pilot scheme

• Interim Evaluation (January 2010).

• Final Evaluation (December 2010).


Monitoring ProgrammeUpdate


Impacts of RET on island economy, quality of life and environment

• Short-term impact of the RET Pilot scheme over first year :

• Ferry traffic data – passenger; car and CV carryings; capacity utilisation

• Accommodation occupancy rates

• Employment and Unemployment

• Business confidence; turnover; profitability and costs

• Business start ups

• Price of goods and services

• Medium-term impacts over two years - as above plus :

• House prices

• Quality of life

• Environment


Phase 2 – Monitoring of the Pilot Ferry Services

• RET Services:

• Stornoway – Ullapool.

• Uig – Tarbert/Lochmaddy.

• Oban – Castlebay/Lochboisdale.

• Oban - Coll/Tiree.

• Benchmark services:

• All other CalMac services.

• Northlink Services.

• Western Ferries.


Phase 2 – Monitoring of the Pilot Area

• RET Area:

• Western Isles, Coll and Tiree.

• Benchmark Areas:

• Northern Isles.

• Other island and Insular Communities.

• Scottish Mainland:

• Highland

• Argyll


Monitoring Programme – Summary


Monitoring Programme – Performance Overview

• Positives

• Extensive Ferry traffic data pre and post pilot.

• Robust On-board surveys.

• Good response to Household survey.

• Key Issues

• Weak engagement with the business community.

• Weak engagement with the tourism sector

• but good data from secondary sources.

• Retail and fuel price surveys.


Interim EvaluationEmerging Findings


Carryings – Passengers

• Increase of nearly 84,000 more trips by passengers (19%) on the RET routes during the first year (November 2008 – October 2009) of the Pilot compared to the same period during 2007/2008.

• Seasonal demand with carryings peaking in August and July, higher on all the Pilot routes subsequent to the introduction of RET.

Monthly passenger carryings, 2006 - 2009

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09

Oban Castlebay Lochboisdale Ullapool Stornow ay Oban Coll Tiree Uig Lochmaddy Tarbert

RET pilot begins

Monthly passenger carryings, 2006 - 2009



RET pilot begins


Carryings – Cars

• Increase of nearly 40,000 more trips by cars (30%) on the RET routes during the first year (November 2008 – October 2009) of the Pilot compared to the same period during 2007/2008.

• Seasonal demand with carryings peaking in August and July, higher on all the Pilot routes subsequent to the introduction of RET.

Monthly car carryings, 2006 - 2009



RET pilot begins

Monthly car carryings, 2006 - 2009



RET pilot beginsRET pilot begins


Carryings - CVs

• Increase of 867 more commercial vehicles (4%) on the RET routes during the first year (November 2008 – October 2009) of the Pilot compared to the same period during 2007/2008.

• No seasonal trend in carryings.Monthly CV metres, 2006 - 2009



RET pilot begins

Monthly CV metres, 2006 - 2009



RET pilot beginsRET pilot begins


Carryings – RET and Non-RET routes

Change in patronage between Nov 08 – Oct 09 compared to the same period in 2007/2008

Passengers

Cars

RET routes 19% 30%

Hebridean routes1 5% 5%

Scottish Ferry Network2 3% 2%

Notes: 1 – All routes operated by CalMac outside the Firth of Clyde.2 – All routes operated by CalMac and Northlink.


Patronage across the Scottish Ferry Network

• Increase in passenger and car traffic since the introduction of RET most pronounced on the RET routes, although also increases across other adjacent ferry routes.

% annual change in patronage across ferry network, 07/08 to 08/09

30%

17%11%

5%0% 0% -1%

19%14%

8% 5% 1% 2% 4%

-10%0%

10%20%30%40%50%

RET routes Inter-islandroutes

Skye InnerHebrides

SouthernHebrides

Firth ofClyde

NorthernIsles

Cars Passengers


Capacity Utilisation

• Only two occasions when demand was above 65% capacity utilisation on any of the RET routes – single sailing on the Ullapool-Stornoway and Uig-Tarbert/Lochamaddy routes in July 2009.

• Only a very small number of sailings reported to experience 85% capacity utilisation in 2009.

• Important to recognise wider issues also impact on capacity:

• Size of vessels may change on routes due to maintenance requirements.

• Reduction in crewing levels in the winter.

• Cancellation of sailings due to bad weather.


Revenue

• Substantial increase in patronage on RET routes, but this has been less than the corresponding decrease in fares for passengers and cars on all RET routes (i.e. all of the routes are relatively price inelastic).

• Average price elasticity of demand:

• Passengers – 0.47

• Cars – 0.83

• Total farebox revenue fell by 28% for passengers;16% for cars and 40% for commercial vehicles across all RET routes in the first full year (November 2008 – October 2009) compared to the previous year.


Travel Behaviour

• Initial impacts much greater in summer season than in the winter suggests they are strongly related to tourism and leisure travel.

• Shift towards a higher frequency of travel by visitors after the introduction of RET, suggesting an increase in repeat visits.

• Day trips now more common for both visitors and residents, especially for leisure and shopping purposes.

• No evidence of route switching or mode switching through the monitoring date collected so far.


Economic Impacts

• Larger increase in employment and turnover in the Western Isles between March 2008 – March 2009 compared to other areas including Highland; Orkney; Shetland and Scotland as a whole.

• Impacts on local business community most pronounced within the tourism sector:

• Extension of the opening season in 2009 compared to 2008.

• More businesses operating at full capacity during the summer months of 2009 compared to 2008. Supported by Visit Scotland data

• Encouraging signs but too early to conclude extent to which the introduction of RET has been a factor. Further data gathered through 2010 will enable more conclusive analysis as part of the Final Evaluation.


Price Data – Retail

• Unweighted price index developed based on the retail price survey data relative to November 2008 baseline.

RET Pilot Area

Scottish Mainland

Other Scottish Islands

November 2008

100 100 100

February 2009

92 97 102

May 2009 86 96 99

August 2009 92 105 93


Price Data – Petrol

Average Petrol Fuel Prices

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09

Survey Period

Pri

ce (

Pen

ce p

er li

tre)

Edinburgh

Glasgow

Inverness

Highland

Western Isles

Isle of Skye

Shetland

Orkney Islands


Price Data – Diesel

Average Diesel Fuel Prices

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09

Survey Period

Pri

ce

(P

en

ce

pe

r lit

re)

Edinburgh

Glasgow

Inverness

Highland

Western Isles

Isle of Skye

Shetland

Orkney Islands


Social and Environmental Impacts

The social and environmental impacts will be furtherconsidered at the final evaluation stage when furthermonitoring activities have been undertaken.

• The assessment of social impacts will focus on how residents in the RET pilot have been influenced in terms of their quality of life subsequent to the introduction of RET within the pilot area.

• The assessment of environmental impacts will focus on the environmental implications of changing travel patterns and mode of transport used to access/depart from the ferry services.


Discussion

• Carryings (Pilot vs Non-Pilot routes)

• Economic impacts

• Price Data

• Social and environmental impacts


Next Steps


Next Steps

• Finalisation and publication of the Interim Evaluation.

• Ongoing monitoring activities.

• February; May; August and October survey periods in 2010.

• Publication of the Third Monitoring report June 2010.

• Publication of Fourth Monitoring Report and Final Evaluation December 2010.

• Date of next meeting – July 2010.

• AOCB.

1ret stakeholder meeting 19 january 2010 road equivalent tariff study stakeholder meeting – 19...

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