AsiaPacificInformationSuperhighway(APIS):NewAvenuetoRevenue

AbuSaeedKhanSeniorPolicyFellow

LIRNEasia

@ESCAP,BangkokDecember23,2014

Technologyshapespolicyanddevelopment(1997)

Oslo2006

Ubiquitous UniversalAccess

Operator1EffectiveRegulation

LicenseSpectrum

InterconnectionInternetBandwidth

UniversalService

Ubiquitous voice/dataUbiquitous broadband

Operator2

Operatorn

1997

2015

Reducepovertyby50%

Brazildiditin2008!

Incooperationwiththeprivatesector, makeavailablethebenefitsofnewtechnologies,especially informationandcommunications.

PPPinMDG#8

Incooperationwiththeprivatesector, makeavailablethebenefitsofnewtechnologies,especially informationandcommunications.

PPPinMDG#8

AsianHighwaycandeliverMDG#8

Anetworkof141,000km ofstandardizedroadwayscrisscrossing32countries connectingAsiawithEurope.

AtotalofUS$26billion hasalreadybeeninvestedintheimprovementandupgrades.

However,thereisstillashortfallofUS$18billion.

MoredetailsinESCAPswebsite

Q:WhyAsianHighwaystrugglesforfund?

A:Telecomshasnot beenconsidered.

Richispayinglesswhilepoorpaysmore.WhoistobeblamedforcolonizingInternet?

Source:GlobalInternetGeography2014,TeleGeography.

Median Asian IP Transit Prices per Mbps, 10 Gigabit Ethernet, Q2 2011-Q2 2014

2011 2012 2013 2014 2013-14 CAGR 11-14East Asia & ChinaHong Kong $12.00 $8.20 $7.00 $6.00 -14% -21%Seoul $13.50 $15.00 $13.50 $12.00 -17% -4%Singapore $17.00 $8.60 $7.00 $6.25 -11% -28%Taipei $14.33 $17.00 $15.55 $12.00 -27% -6%Tokyo $13.50 $9.00 $9.00 $8.00 -29% -16%South Asia & OceaniaJakarta $23.00 $22.00 $13.00 $12.06 -7% -19%Kuala Lumpur $20.67 $11.00 $12.45 $8.00 -36% -27%Mumbai $24.00 $24.00 $19.00 $19.00 0% -7%Sydney $60.00 $25.00 $21.00 $19.00 -10% -32%

Source:GlobalInternetGeography2014,TeleGeography.

Bandwidthforecast:ShifttowardsEurope MiddleEast toEuropehasgrown

from51%(2003)to85%(2013). NorthAfricatoEuropehasgrown

from61%(2003)to94%(2013). 72%ofbandwidthconnectedto

SubSaharanAfrica,upfrom39%adecadeago.

SouthAsia toEuropehasgrownfromlessthan6%(2003)toover46%(2013).

Wehavetwomajorconcerns

Source:CienaandTeleGeography

ChinagoestoEuropeviaRussia

MEEuropegetsterrestrialJeddahAmmanDamascus

Istanbul(JADI) RegionalCableNetwork(RCN)

BypassEgyptDodgethepirates

IranandOmanalsodetour

APAC toEuropeviaMiddleEast?

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EPEGisnowtheInternetsfastestpathbetweentheGulfandEurope,shavingatleasttenpercentoff thebestsubmarinecableroundtriptimefromDubaitoFrankfurt.JimCowie,Renesys.26Sep,2013.

1) 2008:RelianceandChinaMobile terrestriallink.2) 2009:TataandChinaMobile terrestriallink.3) 2010:BhartiandChinaMobile terrestriallink.

Solution:FiberalongtheAsianHighwayRussia,India,China,Turkey,CentralAsia,SAARC,ASEAN+2

AsianHighwayhasalreadylinkedtheborders.Afullymeshed terrestrialAPISiswaiting.

AsiaPacificInformationSuperhighway(APIS)forIntraAsianandEurasianbroadband.

TargetsofAPIS:Openaccess

1) DiversityandRedundancytoallsubmarinecableslinkingAsiawithEuropeandtheUSAviaJapanthroughaTerrestrialConsortium.

2) MigrateSEAMEWE3&SEAMEWE4fromoffshoretoonshore. Alsoletallprivatecarrierstomigrate.

3) Noregulatorydisruption.OnlythelicensedcarrierswillaccessLION.

AdvantagesofAPIS Presumedunfriendlycountriesarealreadyinterlinked.

Submarine:SEAMEWE3andSEAMEWE4. Terrestrial:SinoIndianlinks(Reliance/Tata/Bharti +ChinaMobile).

Highlyresilientduetobeingmeshed. Reroutingthetrafficmeanszerodowntime. Installationandmaintenancecrew/materialsavailableeverywhere.

Createsmoreopportunitiesforsubmarinecables. InvestmentsintranspacificratherthanintraAsia. Lower latencyandhigher SLAatlesser costforinternationalbandwidth.

Openaccessguaranteed

InternetinAsiawillbesimilarto orcheaperthan theEU. Mobilebroadband(HSPA/LTE)willgrowlike2Gvoice.

SmartdevicesandWiFioffloadarefastacceleratingtheconsumptionofdata. Investmentsinbroadbandwillincrease. TherewillbehigherROIinFTTx.

MoreinternationalanddomesticPoPs/accessnodeswillemerge. Landlockedcountrieswillhavebandwidthatequalcost.

Subregionaltelecomsinitiativeshavenotdeliveredthat. Pacificislandswillenjoyreducedbandwidthcostinthemainland.

InternationalGateway(IGW)reformswillbeaccelerated. Usageofsubmarinecablespurchasedcapacitywillbemaximized. Carrierswillcommitlongercontracts.

ImpactsofAPIS

Nationalbroadbandbackboneswillrequirelessersubsidies.

APISandAsianHighway TurnAsianHighwayintoAsianInformationHighway

ESCAPremainsthecommonproponent. MillenniumDevelopmentGoals. Localemploymentgeneration. PublicPrivatePartnership. Boostinglocalbusinesses. Enablingsectoralreforms.

Respectivecountry'sroadauthoritieswillowntheirportionoffibernetwork. MayrequiretoobtainInfrastructureProviderlicenseforregulatory

compliance. HugesavingsfromthenonpaymentofROW. AccesswillbegiventotheInternationalGatewayoperatorsforregulatory

compliance. AdjustedMarginwillbepaidtoeachcountryproportionately(Regular

contributiontotheroadmaintenancebudget).

November5,2013:TigerWoodsinIstanbultohit10golfballsfromAsiatoEurope.

ProfessorCharlesKKao(),FatherofOpticalFiber,NobelLaureateinPhysics(2009)

Sandfromcenturiespast;Sendfuturevoicesfast.

Nextsteps:Inclusiveengagement

RoutesurveyoftheentireAsianHighway. Design,budgetandimplementationschedule. Fundingoftheproject.