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Purchasing Power Parity As An Explanation of Long-Term Changes In Exchange Rates

Author(s): Henry J. GailliotReviewed work(s):Source: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 2, No. 3 (Aug., 1970), pp. 348-357Published by: Ohio State University PressStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1991014 .

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HENRY J. GATTjT.TOT

Purchasing owerParityAs An ExplanationOf Long-Term hangesn ExchangeRates*

INTRODUCTIONThe purposeof this paper s to present ome long termempirical videnceonthe validityof the PurchasingPowerParityTheory n international rade.Theresults end strong supportto PPP as a significant ong-term heory in inter-

national economics. The results also imply some fairly blunt policy recom-mendations for countries concerned with the internationalsector. If pastperformances any guide to the future,countries hat allow internal nflationto run substantially head of their tradingpartnersmust be prepared o paythe price of devaluationor relative nternaldeflationunless they are somehowable to convince their trading partners to deliberatelypursue inflationary. * -pollcles.The paper is divided into two parts. The first section briefly discllssesthetheory as elucidatedby Gustav Cassel.This section also provides he reasons

for choosing the periods 190s1904 and 1963-67 for testing Cassel'stheory.The second section details the results of the long-termstudy and in additiongives the resultsof a decade-by-decadeest of the theory. A short conclusionsection follows the results.THEORY

The term PurchasingPower Parity is applied to a number of related butquite different deas within nternational rade theory. The first interpretation

* The author wishes to thank ProfessorAllan H. Meltzer for many helpful comments andencouragement n this project.Also to ProfessorsHarryJohnson,Norman Miller,and LelandYeager for useful commentson a previous draft. In addition, my thanks to the ResearchDe-partrnentof the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland under Dr. Maurice Mann and to Mrs.Nancy Marstellar,Librarian, or assistance n uncovering he relevantdata.HENRY . GAILLIOTs a graduate tudent t Carnegie-MellonJniversity.

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HENRY . GAILLIOT: 349is a dogmatic one in which some ratio of prices will exactly determine heequilibriumexchange rate. The second variation on the theory claims thatrelative price change is the only variable of any importance n determiningexchangerates.The third and most general nterpretation ssignspricechangeas the primarydeterminantof the exchange rate but allows for importantsecondary actors such as tariffs and other trade hindrances, ransportcosts,capital flows, and expectations. t is the third version of PPP that Cassel de-veloped and the one that is meant in this paperwhen the term PPP is used.lMost criticismsmade against the theory have been directedat the narrowversion [1, 6, 7], while supportersof the theory usually argue for the inter-mediateor most generalversion as an explanationof exchangerate behavior[4, 5, 8]. At the very least, there seems to be agreement r at least acceptanceof relativeprice changes as a significant actor on the level of exchangerates.It may be useful to develop the general version of the PurchasingPowerParityTheory by direct reference o Cassel'swritings.

Cassel'sTheoryGivena normal reedomof tradebetween wo countries,A and B, a rate of exchangewill establish tself between hem and this rate, smaller luctuations part, will remainunalteredas long as no alteration n the purchasingpower of either currency s madeand no special hindrances re imposedupon the trade. But as soon as inflation akesplace in the money of A, and the purchasing ower of this money is, therefore,dimin-ished, the value of the A-money n B must necessarilybe reduced n the same propor-tion . . . when two currencies ave been inflated he new normalrate of exchangewillbe equal to the old rate multipliedby the quotientbetween he degreesof inflationofboth countries.If we are to get nearer o realitywe must . . . start rom a givenequilibrium t a timewhen the exchangerate is presumed o be known, and on the basis of this rate, calcu-late that rate which corresponds o the same equilibrium f any inflation of the cur-rencieshad taken place without any change having otherwiseoccurred.This method (PPP) naturallypresupposes hat no changes in the conditions ofinternational radehave taken place in the interimwhich would have altered he equi-librium evels of the rates of exchange, hat is, the purchasingpower parity, even IFTHE VALUE OF MONEY HAD REMAINED CONSTANT. IMPORTANTCHANGES IN THE INTERNAL PURCHASINGPOWEROF MONEY HAVE AMUCH GREATER NFLUENCE ON THE RATESOF EXCHANGETHAN ANYOTHER ALTERATIONS N THE REAL CONDITIONSOF INTERNATIONALTRADE WHICH COME INTO CONSIDERATION.The arithmeticalprocess re-producedabove is therefore atisfactory or a FIRST ROUGH CALCULATIONofthe new equilibrium evel rate of exchangeAFTER BIG MONETARYCHANGESHAVE OCCURRED.2Within the context of the above theory, we wish to examine the relation-ship between he relativedegreesof inflation n the United States versussome1 For a detaileddiscussionof the various theories, see [3].2 As quoted in the Holmes article 13] Original sources for the three paragraphsare, re-spectively: Cassel, The World'sMonetary Problems (1921), pp. 3S37, Money and ForeignExchangeafter 1914 (1922), p. 175, and The Theoryof Social Economy (1932), pp. 66>61.


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350 : MONEY, EDIT, ANDBANNNGof its tradingpartnersand the relativechanges n ttseexchangeratesbetweenthe same nations.That is, we wish to test the Casselpropositionthat, in thelong run, importantchanges in ttle domesticprice level tlave a muctsgreaterinfluenceon the exchangerates ttsan any other change in the realconditionsof internationalrade.The writerdoes not know of anysimilarempirical estof the abovehypothesis.3The basis chosenfor comparisonwas the averageprice and exchangeratein the 1900-1904period compared o the averageprice and exchangerate inthe 196347 period.Both periods werecharacterized y relatively reemove-ment of trade and capital, freelyconvertible urrencies, nd the existenceof agold or gold-exchange tandard or settlementof accounts.In addition,bothperiodswereprecededby a long intervalof relativepeaceand prosperity ortheindustrialized orld,so thatexpectations f majorctlanges n the internationaleconomicenvironment re likely to be absent.Thus, we hope to minimize heeffect of the important econdary actors of changes n tariffsand othertradehindrances, ransportcosts, capitalflows, and expectations,so that we mayexamine he effect of relativepricechangeson the level of exchangerates.

RESULTSThe nationschosen to test the PPPTheory are the United States andsevenother industrialized ations (Canada,Japan, United Kingdom,France,Italy,Switzerland, ndGermany) or wtsich easonablyaccuratedata areavailable.We define the relative degree of inflation and the relative change in theexctsange ates of each of the tradingpartnersof theUnited Statesas follows:Let WPIil902e the five-yearaverageof wholesaleprices centeredon 1902for Country .Then RelativeInflation n Country

= (WPIil965) / (WPIil902)(WPIUs1965) / (WPIUsl902)

Let (AERli9/0$2)e the five-yearaverageof exchangerates centeredon 1902expressed n termsof units of currency /$.48 For resultsof previous ests, all of whichfocus on relatively hortrun periodswithvaryingdegrees of success, see [9]. See also [2] for tables of annual indices of British (1871-1960)Swedish(1920-60),andSwiss (1920-60)purchasingpowerparities.See also Leagueof NationsStatistical Yearbook or monthly and quarterly eries for 1913-25.4 It is recognized hat for the pre-WWI gold standard,and the post-WWII gold exchangestandard, he averagemay simply be the constant at which the rate is fixed. We use parvaluesfor the early periodas thecurrencies tayedwithinthe gold points which represented ess thanone per cent variance.We use averages or the later period, but these are invariablyclose tothe officialrates.However, t may be notedthat ofiicial rate changesare frequent n the post-war period,and thesewill be reflectedby the five-yearaverages.There were no changes nrele-vant currencies n the 1900 1913 period.


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HENRY J. GAILLIOT 35I

Then Changes n ExchangeRates for each countryrelative to the UnitedStates= (AER$,6q5)/(AER$,02)It is noted thatthe ratios as expressedabovemove in oppositedirections nresponse o an improvement r deterioration n the U.S. position.That is, adeteriorationn U.S. pricesrelativeto a foreigncountryover the time periodwill decreasehe inflation index; a deterioration n our exchangerate willincreasehe exchange ndex. According to PPP, in the absence of all non-monetarychanges,the ratio product should be 1. One may demonstrate hisby recallingthe formulastated in the first paragraphof "Cassel'sTheory"given in the previoussection: "the normalrate of exchangewill be equal tothe old rate multipliedby the quotient betweenthe degree of inflation ofboth countries."Thus:

(Relat*e inflation n country ) (AEIlll0$2) (AERll6$5)or (Rel- Inf,) (AER1/$6)= 1,but AER;/$-1/AER$/i.

Wewill thentest Cassel's heoryby meansof the followingequation:(Relative nflation n country i) (AER1902) I

Theresultsof the studyare givenin Table 1.The results are exceptionallygood when one considersthe myriad socialandeconomicupheavels hat haveoccurredduring he twentiethcenturyandTAsLE1

EXCEANGEKTE S/Unit)tWPI (Average)* (Average) WPI RATIO EXCRANGE RA=OCOUntRY 1900-1904 196367 1900-1904 196S67 (Rel. Inf.) RATIO PRODUCTU.S. 31.7 102.6 - - -U.K. 1 18.3 115.8 4.87 2.78 1.95 .570 1.11U.K. 2 19.9 115.8 4.87 2.78 1.79 .570 1.02Canada 30.6 111.0 1.00 .927 1.12 .927 1.04Japan .143 105.2 .498 .00277 227. .00556 1.26Germany 33.2 106.4 .238 .250 .99 1.05 1.04Switzerlandt 41.5 109.2 .193 .232 .95 1.20 1.14Italy .325 110.8 .193 .Q0161 106. .00835 .89France .396 120.2 .193 .00204 94. .0106 .99

* Sources Wholesale prices, see Appendix A. Base 1958-100 for all countries.t Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1917, for pre-WWI gar values. International Fmancial Statistics fot recentrates. See footnote 4 for comment on the use of "averages.t 1914figures as earlier WPI was not available. ComparableU.S. figure is 37.3 and is used in the calculation ofthis one relative inflation figure. In terms of the 1900franc.


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352 : MONEY, CREDIT, AND BANKING

the difficultyof acquiringreasonablyaccurateestimatesof wholesale prices,especially or the earlierperiods.Theresultsalso cover a vast rangeof relativechange in internaleconomies-from countrieswhich have inflated at a rateslightlybelow the United States to nations whose inflation ndex is over 100times that of the U.S. It appears hat Cassel's heory receivessignificant up-port from the empiricalevidence. It is clear from the figures hat changes npricesarenot the sole determinant f exchange ates,but they certainlyaccountfor the largest part of the changes in exchangerates. Except in the case ofJapan (wherean overvaluation f the yen is indicated) he resultsalso indicatethat most majorcurrenciesare reasonablyvalued relative o their purchasingpower at the turn of this century.It may be noted in an aside that if the newvalue of the pound sterling($2.40) wereused, the two ratio's are .97 and .88,whichare still veryclose to the expectedvalue of 1.Given the encouraging esultsof thisvery ong-term tudywherean attemptwas made to minimize he eSect of non-monetary actors through choice oftime periods, it was thought useful to examine the same proposition on adecade-by-decade asis from 1900-1904 o 1963-67. One could then examinePPP underconditionswhere t is clearthe non-monetary actors have under-gone large changesfrom period to period.Given the range of the data (1900to 1967) and the periods 1919-23 and 1936X0 whose choice was dictatedbyWorld War I and II, the remaining ntervalswere chosen to fall midwaybe-tween each of the given intervals.The final results of the calculations aregiven in Table 2.The results n this section are even better than those in the previoustablewhen one considers he immensediSerencesn tariSs,freedomof capital lows,convertibilityof currencies,and expectationsbetween the periods. It is notsurprising hat there are instanceswherethe figure is far from the expectedvalue of 1; but it is remarkable hat so many of the figures, }lroughwars anddepression,remain reasonablyclose to 1. If one examinesthe results whichare significantlydiSerentfrom 1 (i.e., greater han 10 per cent) one notes a

TABLE 2PRODUCTOF WHOLESALE RICEINDEX RATIO-EXCHANGE ATIO*

(1900-1904 BaSe)Country 190W13 1919-23 1927-31 193S40 194W53 1963-67

U.K. 1 .99 1.06 1.02 1.12 .94 1.11U.K. 2 .96 1.03 .94 1.03 .87 1.02Canada .95 1.01 1.05 1.01 1.06 1.04JaPan 1.05 1.39 1.23 1.07 1.19 1.26GermanY 1 .01 NA 1 .08 1 . 64 1 .00 1 .04SWitZeriandt NA 1.21 1.05 1.26 1.17 1.14Ita1Y .97 1 .03 1 .06 1. 29 .91 .89FranCe .99 1.00 .95 1.03 1.00 .99

* The data from which the table results were obtained are given in Appendix B.t 1914 base period instead of 1900 1094 average.


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HENRYJ. GAILLIOT : 353hightendency owarda return o unity in the nextperiod.For example, he 10italicized igures n the table representpoints outside the 10 per cent rangeforwhichthere s a nextperiodobservation vailable. n only onecase (Japan,1949-53) did the nextperiod showmovement way from the equilibriumevelof 1. Again, these figuresoSer significant upportto Cassel's thesis,while atthe sametimedemonstratinghatotherfactorscan causelarge, but temporarydeviations romthe expectedvaluationof currencies.5The above results are derivedfrom exchangerates and wholesale priceindices.The exchangerates arebased on par value duringthe gold standardperiod (19001913) and marketquotations which are readilyavailable andhencereasonablyaccurate or the remainingperiods.However,the wholesaleprice ndicesareanotherproblementirely.Only threecountries U.S., Canada,andJapan)haveindicesthat are consistent n that they werecompiledby onesource.The other indiceswerecompiledby the authorfrom severalsourcesand splicedtogetherto form a long-termseries.We recognize he difficultiesassociatedwith this method such as: (1) the index numberproblem-someindices areweightedandthe weightingundoubtedlyhas diSeringbases acrosscountries, and (2) quantitychanges-the indices contain varyingquantitiesacrosscountriesand alsochanges n quantitywithin ndividual ndices.6One could extendthe paperby commentingon the overvaluation r under-valuation of the variouscurrenciesover the given time intervals,but I feelthat this wouldbe straining he accuracyevel of thefigures.

ConclusionIn spite of the admittedproblems n the data, the resultsof this study lendsupportto the PurchasingPowerParityTheory as a long-termhypothesisofinternational conomics.At the same timeit supports he arguments f thoseeconomistswho objectto the narrowpurchasingpower"dogma."The results

show the often dramaticeSect of non-monetary actors in individualtimeperiods,but at the same time demonstratehe temporarynature of most ofthese aberrations.Perhaps the most strikingresult is the tendency towardequilibrium alues of currencies ven when one is forced to use observationsthat have beeninfluencedby two wars anda greatdepression.The resultshave some striking policy implications for governments hatmustbeconcernedwith theinternationalector.They do not have anyimplica-tions for a nationthat has a one-shotinflationof 5-6 percent versus2-3 per6 A possiblecriticismof the aboveanalysis s thatby usingthe U.S. as a base, we have takenthe world's largesteconomy whose prices may dominate the prices of smaller countries.Thecomment othecriticismistwofold: 1)It isnotedthatPPPworkswell nthepre-WorldWarIperiod when the U.S. economy was less importantthan at present;and (2) one may easilydivide out the U.S. in the decade-by-decadeable,and it can be seen that the PPP resultsaregood when one usedmost Europeancountriesor Canada as the base in comparisonwith theremaining imilarsizedcountries on the list.6 See [10] for furtherdiscussion of bias introduced nto the indicesbecause of basic diSer-ences in "marketbaskets"across nations.


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354 : MONEY,CREDIT,AND BANKING

cent in the economiesof its tradingpartners.However, f, as an annual rate,suchrelative nflationpersisted or a significant eriodof time, thentheresultsof this paperimply that the inflatingnation would need to bring itself backinto adjustmentwith its tradingpartners.It may do this in threeways: (1)devalue ts currency o reflect hechange n its purchasingpower; (2) undergorelativedeflation o restore he purchasingpower of its currency; 3) convinceits tradingpartners o undergorelativeinflation to decreasethe purchasingpower of theircurrencies.A finalpolicycomment s that perhapsrecognizing he long-term mplica-tions of this theory will lead to less emphasison remediesdesigned o removethe effectsof short-termperipheral hangesand more emphasison measuresto correctunderlyingmbalances.This is not to implythat,confrontedwith acrisis, a nationshouldnot enactshortterm measures uch as tariffsor higherinterestrates. However,recognitionof the underlyingong termfactorsmayinduce a nationto take remedialactionwhile thereexist manyoptionsandnotwait until a crisisimposes constraints hat can be satisfiedonly by severeandunpopularmeasures.

APPENDIX AWHOLESALERICE NDEXSOURCBS

Sources:A. Long-term conomicGrowth;U.S. Dept. of Commerce;1966B. InternationalFinancial Statistics; International Monetary Fund;Publishedmonthly beginningJanuary, 1948; Also yearly supple-ments beginning1961C. Statistical Yearbook;United Nations; New York. Publishedyearlybeginning1948D. FederalReserveBulletin;Boardof Governorsof the FederalReserveSystem;Washington,D.C. Publishedmonthly beginningJanuary,1915E. CanadaYearbook;DominionBureau of Statistics;Ottawa, Canada.PublishedyearlyF. Review of EconomicStatisticsand Supplement;HarvardUniversityCommitteeon Economic Research;Cambridge,Mass.; Vol. VIII,1926

G. IndexNumbersof WholesalePrices in the UnitedStates andForeignCountries;Bureauof LaborStatistics;Bulletin 284, 1921H. Hundred-Year tatisticsof the JapaneseEconomy;StatisticsDepart-ment of the Bank of Japan;Tokyo, Japan; 1966Indicesby Country(withSource):1. United States: Bureau of Labor Statistics (A) p. 202-203Index


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HENRYJ. GAILLIOT : 355

2. United Kingdom 1: 1951-67 IndustrialOutputIndex1920>55Board of TradeIndex

190025 EconomistIndex3. United Kingdom 2: Same as UK N 1 ex-cept:

190>25 StatistIndex4. Canada:DominionBureauof Statistics ndex

5. Japan:Bank of Japan Index6. Switzerland: 928-67 Home & Import GoodIndex

1914-30 LorenzIndex7. Germany:1938-67WholesalePriceIndex

1924 44 GermanFederalBureauof Statis-tics1913-26 FrankfurterZeitungIndex (Basedon GoldMark)190018 ImperialStatistical nstitute ndex

8. Italy: 1928-67WholesalePriceIndex

1913-33Bachi Index1900>16AnnuarioStatistico talianoIndex

9. France: 1948-67 Home and Import GoodIndex1928-53 WholesalePrice Index

(B) July, 1968(B) 1967/68 Supp.(B) June, 1956(C) 1948(D) 1935p. so1930 p. 256(F) Supplement(F) Supplement(G) p. 273-75(F) Supplement(G) p. 280>8l(E) 1942 p. 728Various 1945-65(B) July, 1968(H) p. 76-77(B) July, 1968(B) July, 1968(B) 1967-68 Supp.(C) 1948(D) Various 1917-31(F) Supplement(B) July, 1968(B) 1967/68 Supp.(C) 1952(C) 1948(D) Various 1925-29(F) Supplement(G) p. 254(B) July, 1968(B) 1967/68 Supp.(C) 1948(D) Various 1925-35(F) Supplement(G) p. 290(B) July, 1968(B) 1967/68 Supp.(B) June, 1954(C) 1948


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356 : MONEY,CREDDIT,ND BANKING

190>39 StatistiqueGenerale ndex (D) Various 1927-39(F) Supplement(G) p. 205

APPENDIX B DATAWHOLESALERICE NDICES 5 YEARAVERAGE

(BaSe 1958-100)1900-1904 190913 1919-23 1927-31 193640 194>53 196367102.6115.8115.8111.0105.2106.4109.2110.8120.2

usUK 1UK 2CanadaJapanGermanySwitz.ItalyFrance

31.718.319.930.6.14333.2n.a..325.396

37.421.422.634.1.17839.541.5*.380.460

64.346.249.166.1.409n.a.87.52.181.82

48.929.729.749.9.28555.457.31.972.85

43.929.929.944.0.39045.348.8

1.993.11

90.780.780.796.286.892.098.899.275.6

* 1914Indexnumberas pre-1914data arenot available.The comparableU.S. figure s 37.3which iS used in thisonecalculation or theWholesalePriceratio.Source:See AppendixA.

FOREIGN XCHANGEATES S YEARAVBRAGE*($/Unit Foreign Currency)

1900-19044.871.00

.498

.238

190>134.871.00

1919-234.19

1927-314.80

.993

.477

.238

.193

.0522

.0392

1936 404.65

1949-532.98

.966

.00282

.247

.232

.00163

.00288

196S672.78

.927

.00277

.250

.232

.00161

.00204:

UK(Pound)Canada(Dollar)Japan(Yen)Germany(Mark)Switz.(Franc)Italy(Lira)France(Franc)

.942

.489n.a..191.0600.0848

.962

.271

.400

.242

.0561

.0353

.498

.238*193t.193.193

.193

.193* In certain periodsof fixedrates, the "average" s the constant at whichthe rate is fixed.This applies to the pre-1914period, and, to a lesserextent to the postwarperiod. t 1914rate to conform withWholesalePrice data. t In termsof tie 1900 franc.Source:FederalReserveBulletin,variousissues 1917-67 InternationalFinancialStatisticsvarious ssues1948-68.


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HBNRYJ. GAILLIOT : 357LITERArUREITED

1. BALLASSA,ELA."The PurchasingPower Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal?"Journalof Political Economy (December, 1964), pp. 58S96.2. FRIEDMAN,ILTON,nd ANNA . SCHWARTZ.MonetaryHistoryof the UnitedStates 1867-1960, pp. 769-71.3. HOLMES,AMESM. "The PurchasingPower Parity Theory: In Defense ofGustavCassel as a ModernTheorist,"Journalof Political Economy (Octo-ber, 1967), pp. 686-95.4. HOUrHAKRF.R,. "ExchangeRate Adjustment"n JoirltEconomicCommittee,FactorsAfecting the U.S. Balanceof Payments(1964).5. K]3YNES,OHNM. Tract on MonetaryReform.New York: Harcourt,Brace &Co., 1924.6. SAMUELSON,AULA. "TheoreticalNotes on Trade Problems,"Review ofEconomicsand Statistics(May, 1964).7. V1NER, ACOB.tudies in the Theory of International Trade. New York:Harper& Bros., 1937.8. YEAGER,ELAND. "A Rehabilitationof PurchasirlgPower Parity,"Journalof PoliticalEconomy (December, 1958), pp. 516-30.9. . InternationalMonetaryRelations.New York: Harper & Row, 1966.Pp. 177-80.

10. . TheInternationalMonetaryMechanism.P. 77-81.

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