19 April 200519 April 2005JISAO ReviewJISAO Review

University of WashingtonUniversity of WashingtonSeattle, WASeattle, WA

Frank GonzálezFrank González

Leader, Tsunami Research ProgramLeader, Tsunami Research ProgramNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratoryPacific Marine Environmental LaboratorySeattle, WASeattle, WA

TsunamisTsunamis

NOAA/PMEL Tsunami Research ProgramNOAA/PMEL Tsunami Research Program

• • NOAA ScientistsNOAA Scientists

- Frank González- Frank González- Harold Mofjeld (JISAO Senior Fellow)- Harold Mofjeld (JISAO Senior Fellow)- Marie Eble- Marie Eble- Edison Gica (Post-doc)- Edison Gica (Post-doc)- Misty Watson (NOAA Corps)- Misty Watson (NOAA Corps)

• JISAO Scientists• JISAO Scientists

- Vasily Titov- Vasily Titov- Diego Arcas- Diego Arcas- Angie Venturato- Angie Venturato- Jean Newman- Jean Newman- Chris Chamberlin- Chris Chamberlin

UW Faculty CollaboratorsUW Faculty CollaboratorsApplied MathematicsApplied Mathematics

Randy LeVequeRandy LeVeque Tsunami modeling (under discussion)Tsunami modeling (under discussion)Applied Physics LaboratoryApplied Physics Laboratory

Don Percival Don Percival (Statistics)(Statistics) Time series analysis, Time series analysis, data assimilation, statisticsdata assimilation, statistics

OceanographyOceanographyMark L. HolmesMark L. Holmes Puget Sound tsunamis,Puget Sound tsunamis,

landslide processeslandslide processesH. Paul JohnsonH. Paul Johnson Tidal effects of hydrothermal systemsTidal effects of hydrothermal systemsJeffrey D. ParsonsJeffrey D. Parsons Puget Sound tides and tidal datumsPuget Sound tides and tidal datumsWilliam S.D. WilcockWilliam S.D. Wilcock Tidal effects of hydrothermal systemsTidal effects of hydrothermal systems

Earth and Space SciencesEarth and Space SciencesDerek Booth (Derek Booth (Civ. Env. EngCiv. Env. Eng.).) Puget Sound faultsPuget Sound faultsJody BourgeoisJody Bourgeois Tsunami inundation; paleotsunamisTsunami inundation; paleotsunamisKenneth CreagerKenneth Creager Faults, earthquakes; seismic seichesFaults, earthquakes; seismic seichesSteve MaloneSteve Malone Earthquakes; seismic seichesEarthquakes; seismic seichesAnthony QamarAnthony Qamar Faults, earthquakes; seismic seichesFaults, earthquakes; seismic seiches

State Agencies

Alaska California Hawaii Oregon Washington

Federal Agencies

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.

• U.S. Geological Survey

• Federal Emergency Management Agency

U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation ProgramReduce the Impact of Tsunamis on U.S. Coastal Communities

Frank González, NOAA TIME Center, PMEL, Seattle, WA

Recent AccomplishmentRecent Accomplishment• • 26 Dec 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami26 Dec 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

Demonstrated & interpreted global distribution patternsDemonstrated & interpreted global distribution patternsModel Simulations and Tide Gage time seriesModel Simulations and Tide Gage time seriesPrimary physicsPrimary physics: Seismic line-source characteristics; World coastline : Seismic line-source characteristics; World coastline

reflections; Mid-ocean ridge wave guidesreflections; Mid-ocean ridge wave guides

26 Dec 04 Tsunami Simulation 26 Dec 04 Tsunami Simulation (Vasily Titov, Diego Arcas)(Vasily Titov, Diego Arcas)

QuickTime™ and aSorenson Video 3 decompressorare needed to see this picture.

Recent AccomplishmentRecent Accomplishment• • Developed Tsunami Forecasting System MethodologyDeveloped Tsunami Forecasting System Methodology

- Integrates real-time Measurement & Modeling technologiesIntegrates real-time Measurement & Modeling technologies- Will improve speed and reliability of Tsunami WarningsWill improve speed and reliability of Tsunami Warnings- Prototype tested and availablePrototype tested and available- Valuable research toolValuable research tool- Operational version under developmentOperational version under development

1. Real-time Tsunami & Seismic Data

2. Model Database

3. Site-specific Forecasts

Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003

Mw=7.5

3cm

-3

3cm

-3

Q: How would you interpret these data ?

Q: How would you interpret these data ?

3cm

-3

3cm

-3

Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003

A: Operational Forecast Model

A: Operational Forecast Model

Q: How would you interpret these data ?

Q: How would you interpret these data ?

1. Pre-computed Nested Grid Database 1. Pre-computed Nested Grid Database of Offshore Values of Offshore Values

1. Pre-computed Nested Grid Database 1. Pre-computed Nested Grid Database of Offshore Values of Offshore Values

2. Provides Initial 2. Provides Initial Conditions for Real-time Conditions for Real-time Inundation Simulation Inundation Simulation (~10 Minutes)(~10 Minutes)

2. Provides Initial 2. Provides Initial Conditions for Real-time Conditions for Real-time Inundation Simulation Inundation Simulation (~10 Minutes)(~10 Minutes)

•• Hilo Tide GageHilo Tide Gage

Result: “Blind” Forecast at HiloResult: “Blind” Forecast at HiloResult: “Blind” Forecast at HiloResult: “Blind” Forecast at Hilo

Tsunami FcstModMapTsunami FcstModMap

U.S. PlanU.S. Plan

SummarySummary

NOAA/PMEL Tsunami Research ProgramNOAA/PMEL Tsunami Research Program

• Collaborative PMEL/JISAO Effort• Collaborative PMEL/JISAO Effort• Research on Tsunami Dynamics• Research on Tsunami Dynamics• Focus on Numerical Modeling• Focus on Numerical Modeling• National Significance• National Significance

Reduce Tsunami Hazard and ThreatReduce Tsunami Hazard and Threat to U.S. Coastal Communities to U.S. Coastal Communities