18july 18 march th 2019-2020...gbp/usd pair is dropping sharply despite uk chancellor of the...

July 18th 201918th March-2020

TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIOUS CONSENSUS IMPACT

02:30 PM EUR

ITALIAN

INDUSTRIAL NEW

ORDERS (YOY)

(JAN)

0.7% 6.0% -NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

03:30 PM EUR CPI (YOY) (FEB) 1.2% 1.2% -POSITIVE

FOR EUR

06:00 PM USDBUILDING

PERMITS (FEB)1.500M 1.550M -

NEGATIVE

FOR USD

06:00 PM CADCORE CPI (MOM)

(FEB)- 0.4% -

NEGATIVE

FOR CAD

08:00 PM USDCRUDE OIL

INVENTORIES3.256M 7.664M -

POSITIVE

FOR CRUDE

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY

SNAPSHOT

SCRIP PRICE % CHANGE TREND

AUDUSD 0.6006 0.13 WEAK

NZDUSD 0.5956 0.4 WEAK

EURUSD 1.1007 0.10 NEUTRAL

GBPUSD 1.2126 0.63 WEAK

USDJPY 107.16 -0.47 STRONG

USDCAD 1.4208 0.03 STRONG

USDCHF 0.9601 -0.08 STRONG

DXY 99.52 -0.28 STRONG

GOLD 1,530.25 0.29 STRONG

SILVER 12.822 2.62 NEUTRAL

CRUDEOIL 27.43 0.37 WEAK

MARKET BYTES:

• ASIAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED WEAKAsian benchmark indices closed marginally with losses on Tuesday asmarket have expectations that more stimulus from government andpolicymakers around the world. At close, the Hang Seng rose 200 pointsor 0.9% to 23,264; the Nikkei 225 edged up 9 points or 0.1% to end at17,011; the KOSPI index plunged 42 points or 2.5% to 1,762 and theShanghai Composite index fell 10 points or 0.3% to finish at 2,780.

• CORONA CASES DOUBLED IN NEW ZEALANDAccording to the NZ officials, New Zealand confirmed coronavirus havenearly doubled in a day, total 20 now while 8 cases are new. However,Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield reported that detailsabout the new cases to be released later the day. All of the cases are inNew Zealand who have returned from overseas and they all have beenin self-isolation.

ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MSCI

OUR VIEW

MSCI has formed an ‘Inverted Hammer’ candle stick pattern in previous trading session that signals for a bullish reversal but possesses restricted reliability. The index has failed to breach 100-days Exponential Moving Average. The counter could witness more weakness if RSI slip below 40 levels.

AUDUSD TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

AUD/USD has witnessed steep fall earlier so a mean reversion to 20 (4-hours)Exponential Moving Average is highly expected by market participants. RSI is tradingback and forth in a range of 20-40 levels.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI SELL SELL SELL SELL

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL SELL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL SELL SELL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL SELL

SENTIMETER SELL SELL SELL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:

AUDUSDAUD/USD pair remained weak after the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading EconomicIndex in Australia dropped by 0.4% in February 2020, the weakest reading sinceDecember 2008, following a downwardly revised reading in the previous month.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

SELL 0.6122 0.6080 0.6036 0.6156

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

AUDUSD 0.5790 0.5459 0.6465 0.6658

0.

NZDUSD TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:NZD/USD is trading near its potential ‘Supply’ zone that is placed in a narrow range of0.5990-0.6020 levels on hourly scale. The pair is trading below its psychological supportof 0.6000 levels that would triggers more sellers to initiate short positions in the counter.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

10 SMA NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL



FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :NZDUSDThe Kiwi pair is in bearish momentum despite New Zealand’s current account deficitnarrowed to NZD 2.66 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019 from NZD 3.61 billion in thecorresponding period of the previous year and compared with market expectations of aNZD 2.96 billion gap.STRATEGY


SELL 0.5990 0.5948 0.5916 0.6024


NZDUSD 0.5787 0.5522 0.6204 0.6374

EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• EUROPEAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED IN GREENEuropean equities market have been bounced back in the last marketsession on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve re-launched a financialcrisis-era program to oomph up corporate funding and the Trumpadministration proposed a $850 billion stimulus package. At close, theDAX 30 surged 2.3% to 8,939, the CAC 40 rose 110 points, or 2.8% to3,992, the IBEX 35 surged 391 points, or 6.4% to 6,499 and the FTSEMIB closed 334 points higher, or 2.2% at 15,315.

• LIST OF CORONAVIRUS CASES IN EURO AREAI. Germany: Coronavirus cases jump to 9,360. The number of new

cases are 2,088.II. In France, the government recorded more than 5,400 cases vs.

4,449 and total deaths rose to 120 from 91 on Monday.

EURUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:EUR/USD is trading near its potential ‘Demand’ zone that is placed in a narrow range of1.0960-1.0987 levels on daily scale. RSI is trading at 44.92 levels but likely to sensesupport at 40 levels. Stochastic oscillator is continued with bearish crossover.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL



SENTIMETER NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :

EURUSDEUR/USD pair is witnessing neutral to positive momentum after the US governmentannounced a massive relief package to fight the coronavirus of $850 billion. On macroside, the German ZEW Survey for March showed that Economic Sentiment collapsed to -49.5 in the Union, and -49.5 in Germany.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.0960 1.1000 1.1038 1.0930


EURUSD 1.0881 1.0780 1.1243 1.1400

GBPUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD has formed a classic ‘Marubozu’ candle stick pattern that often signalscontinuation of downtrend. RSI is closed at 65.82 levels showing no signs of divergenceand oversold situation. DMI’s have been converged for continuation of upside.


RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBPUSD pair is in positive territory as Brexit hopes continue to underpin the demandfor pound against the greenback. However, there is no economic event in bothcountries today.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.2512 1.2545 1.2578 1.2486


GBPUSD 1.2300 1.2270 1.2380 1.2400

GBPUSD TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD is marching towards its potential support that is placed at 1.1958 levels on daily scale. The pair is likely to remain on tenterhooks as RSI is slipped below its traded range of 40-60 levels. Stochastic oscillator is trading in an oversold zone.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL SELL SELL




FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBP/USD pair is dropping sharply despite UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunaksaid that the government would available £330 billion of loan guarantees to businessesto combat the negative impact of Covid-19.

STRATEGY


SELL 1.2072 1.2020 1.1958 1.2126


GBPUSD 1.1710 1.1544 1.2200 1.2500

MARKET BYTES:

• US EQUITY FINISHED MIXED ON FRIDAYU.S equity ended mixed on Friday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closedmarginally lower at 0.1% and 0.2% or 2 and 18 points respectively whileDow Jones was marginally higher at 0.1% or 37 points as US retail salesbeat market expectations in August led by increase in consumption ofauto sector and online shopping platform stimulate the economicgrowth.

• TRUMP URGE TO GM AS UAW (UNITED AUTO WORKERS) CALLSFOR STRIKE SINCE 2007

On Sunday, President Trump said to avoid the strike around 48,000workers, the UAW and General Motors to come together to negotiateand “make a deal”. The strike is to improve wages, reopen idled plants,add jobs at others and close or narrow the difference between pay ratesfor new hires and veteran workers of UAW while General Motors wantsits employees to pay a standard remuneration of their health careexpenses, and to increase productive work-force in their work place.

US ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• U.S EQUITY MARKET CLOSED IN POSITIVE TERRITORYU.S equity market closed deeply in green on Tuesday after the WhiteHouse seeks a massive stimulus package to counter this deterioratingeconomic outlook. Additionally, the Fed announced that it is providinghelp to companies who are suffering short-term funding crisis to regulatebasic operations. At close, the final numbers were: the Dow Jones surged1,049 points or 5.2% to 21,237, the S&P 500 soared 143 points or 6% to2,529 and the NASDAQ gained 430 points or 6.2% to 7,335.

• US TREASURY SECRETARY WARNS SENATORS THAT ECONOMYCOULD FACE 20% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DUE TO CORONAVIRUSUS Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin warned Senators that theCoronavirus pandemic could drift US unemployment by 20% withoutgovernment intervention. He added further that he believes the economicfallout from the virus is potentially worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

DOLLAR INDEX

OUR VIEW:

The DXY is trading in a ‘Rising Channel’ on hourly scale that signals for a consolidated move with a positive bias. The greenback is expected to resume upside momentum after oscillators will turn oversold. The counter is trading above 100-hours Exponential Moving Average.

OUTLOOK: STRONG

USDJPY TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/JPY has been bounced back after tagging its primary trend line placed on hourlyscale. The pair is holding its 50-hours Exponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 51.44levels but expected to expand after breaching 60 levels.


RSI BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY NEUTRAL BUY BUY

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY SELL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:USDJPYUSD/JPY pair remained in positive territory despite Japan's trade surplus widened to JPY1.11 trillion in February 2020 from JPY 0.33 trillion in the same month a year earlier andcompared with market expectations of a JPY 0.92 trillion gap. Where imports shrank14% to JPY 5.21 trillion.

STRATEGY


BUY 106.62 107.08 107.45 106.40


USDJPY 104.60 101.25 109.61 111.66

USDCAD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CAD has witnessed stalwart rally earlier so a mean reversion to 20 (4-hours)Exponential Moving Average is highly expected by market participants. RSI is trading at70.94 levels showing no signs of divergence but an oversold situation cannot be ruled out.


RSI BUY BUY BUY BUY

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY BUY BUY

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY BUY BUY


MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY BUY

SENTIMETER NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCADCollapse in oil prices is major driving factor of the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, thepair is getting strength despite the Trump administration has injected a fiscal stimuluspackage of more than $1 trillion that includes direct payments to Americans, deferredtaxes and medical aid services to cure the Coronavirus.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.4000 1.4042 1.4089 1.3970


USDCAD 1.3785 1.3520 1.4270 1.4400

USDCHF TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CHF is trading near its potential ‘Supply’ zone that was placed in a narrow range of0.9614-0.9638 levels on 4-hour scale. The pair is expected to extend gains as RSI isholding above 60 levels. Potential resistance is placed at 0.9846 levels.


RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL


MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCHFUSD/CHF pair is soaring despite the Federal Reserve announced new measures torescue its economy via purchasing its Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) and theNY Fed announced repurchase agreement (repo) operation of $500 billion.

STRATEGY


BUY 0.9655 0.9697 0.9740 0.9620


USDCHF 0.9408 0.9195 0.9850 1.0000

GOLD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAU/USD has given a breakout of ‘Falling Channel’ on hourly scale that signals for abullish reversal after a positive consolidated move. The precious metal is expected toextend gains after breaching 100-hours Exponential Moving Average.

STRATEGY


BUY 1548.07 1570.24 1591.17 1531.00

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE1 RESISTANCE2

GOLD 1452.04 1400.00 1597.71 1634.33

SILVER TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAG/USD has formed a ‘Hammer’ candle stick pattern in previous trading session thatsignals for a bullish reversal after the market participants’ sense a value bet and acceptsthe asset class at the lower prices. A breach of 13.251 levels will trigger the formationof ‘Hammer’ candle stick pattern and activates more buyers to initiate long positions.Potential resistance is placed at 13.952 levels.

STRATEGY


BUY 12.957 13.200 13.420 12.710

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

SILVER 12.120 11.786 13.928 14.556

CRUDEOIL TREND:WEAK

TECHNICAL VIEW:Crude Oil WTI futures has witnessed a steep fall after giving a breakout of ‘Darvas Box’on hourly scale that signals for expansion in standard deviation after a slippage. Theblack gold is slipped near its 48-months low that is placed at 27.46 levels. RSI is holdingbelow 40 levels.

STRATEGY


SELL 27.17 25.76 24.23 28.17

SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE1 RESISTANCE2

CRUDE OIL 22.93 20.00 30.07 34.74

18july 18 march th 2019-2020...gbp/usd pair is dropping sharply despite uk chancellor of the...

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