1875 FINANCE

THE FINANCIAL PLACE TO BE

1875 CIO OFFICE – ADVISORY TEAM

Morning Briefing – Friday, August 17, 2018

“Walmart: nice surprise!”

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DAILY MARKET DATA

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 17.08.2018 08:00

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD Countries 2Y Yield 5Y Yield 10Y Yield

US - DOW JONES 25'559 1.58% 3.40% Consumer Discretionary243.82 0.20% 2.99% USA 2.62% 2.75% 2.87%

US - S&P500 2'841 0.79% 6.25% Consumer Staples 225.84 -2.37% -8.46% Eurozone -0.68% -0.27% 0.30%

US - NASDAQ 7'807 0.42% 13.08% Energy 228.40 2.18% 1.76% Switzerland -0.82% -0.51% -0.17%

CANADA - TSX 16'226 0.48% 0.10% Financials 119.60 0.96% -1.71% UK 0.68% 0.98% 1.24%

MEXICO - IPC 48'059 -1.02% -2.62% Healthcare 239.76 -0.55% -1.07% Sweden -0.56% -0.09% 0.46%

Industrials 250.58 1.06% -1.10% Canada 2.07% 2.17% 2.25%

Technology 241.55 -1.21% 5.08% Japan -0.14% -0.09% 0.09%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Materials 246.08 1.55% -1.85% Australia 1.98% 2.16% 2.54%

EUROPE - EURO STOXX 50 3'378 0.55% -3.61% Telecom Services 68.84 -0.17% -6.27% China 2.90% 3.30% 3.62%

UK - FTSE 100 7'556 0.78% -1.71% Utilities 130.27 0.03% -2.08% Turkish 23.32% 24.76% 20.88%

GERMANY - DAX 12'237 0.61% -5.27%

FRANCE - CAC 40 5'349 0.83% 0.69%

SWITZERLAND - SMI 8'998 0.80% -4.09% Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD

SPAIN - IBEX 9'427 0.43% -6.14% VIX S&P 500 13.45 -8.13% 21.83% GLOBAL COMMODITY

ITALY - FTSE MIB 20'524 -1.83% -6.08% VXN Nasdaq 16.43 -4.42% 4.78% CRB Index 188.38 0.76% -2.83%

SWEDEN - OMX 1'611 1.11% 2.18% VSTOXX Stoxx600 16.26 -11.97% 20.37% ENERGY

V3VI SMI 15.25 -6.44% 29.35% Crude Oil (WTI) USA 65.44 -0.03% 10.78%

Brent oil UK 71.36 -0.10% 10.82%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Natural Gas 2.919 0.38% 4.66%

JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 22'280 0.40% -2.13% Price 1 Day YTD BASE METALS

CHINA - SHANGHAI COMP 2'696 -0.34% -18.48% EUR / USD 1.1376 -0.01% -5.24% Aluminium 2048 1.14% -9.70%

HONG KONG - HIS 27'254 0.57% -8.91% EUR / CHF 1.1343 0.03% -3.07% Copper 5938 2.36% -18.06%

SINGAPORE - STI 3'225 0.41% -5.22% EUR / GBP 0.8944 -0.02% 0.71% Zinc 2392 4.00% -27.93%

EUR / SEK 10.4611 0.04% 6.37% Cobalt 63847 -0.01% -15.10%

EUR / TRY 6.6630 0.29% 46.54% Lithium 286.40 N/A 0.49%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD USD / CHF 0.9972 0.03% 2.35% PRECIOUS METALS

BRAZIL - IBOVESPA 76'819 -0.34% 0.55% USD / SEK 9.1958 0.04% 12.37% Gold 1174.06 -0.01% -9.88%

RUSSIA - RTS 1'067 1.07% -7.62% USD / JPY 110.8600 -0.04% -1.62% Silver 14.61 -0.32% -13.76%

INDIA - BSE SENSEX 37'956 0.78% 11.45% USD / TRY 5.8369 0.05% 53.68% Palladium 960.34 0.44% -16.25%

TURKEY - BIST 100 87'143 -3.46% -24.44% GBP / USD 1.2719 0.02% -5.88% Platinum 778.98 -0.10% -16.08%

Currencies

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Sectors Performances Sovereign Bonds

Volatility

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CARTOON OF THE DAY

Source: Hedgeye.com

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RELEVANT NEWS

Economy & FX

Companies

• US stocks rise on planned US-China trade talks

• Asia Stocks Rise on Trade Talk Hopes, Dollar Slips

• European Stocks Rebound as Miners Recover With Metals on Trade

• SMI Index Rises 0.8%; Novartis Leads Advance

Markets

Interesting articles

• Trump Pushes China for Better Deal as Trade Talks Set to Resume link

• U.S. Stocks Vulnerable as Tech and Momentum Become One Trade link

• Google CEO Is Said to Tell Staff China Plans Are Exploratory

• MetLife, State Street Strike $2 Billion Mortgage Partnership

• Tesla Said to Ramp Up COO Search to Ease Pressure From Musk

• Argentina Is Said to Seek More Financing as Peso Rout Deepens

• Interest Rates in China Below the U.S. Level Risks Outflows

• Mnuchin Says Turkey Faces More Sanctions If Pastor Not Released

17.08.2018 08:04

Name Last Day chg %

Dow Jones fut 25610.00 0.07

S&P500 fut 2843.50 -0.04

Nasdaq fut 7379 -0.14

Eurostoxx 50 fut 3379 1.08

Dax fut 12243.50 0.94

CAC40 fut 5349 0.84

SMI fut 8982 0.91

Nikkei fut 22270 0.50

Hang Seng fut 27173 0.48

WTI Oil fut 65.44 -0.03

Gold 1174.18 0.00

EUR/USD 1.1377 0.00

GBP/USD 1.2719 0.02

EUR/CHF 1.1344 0.04

USD/CHF 0.9971 0.02

US 10Y Yield 2.87 0.01

CHF 10Y Yield -0.11 0.01

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CHART OF THE DAY - EXTERNAL RESEARCH

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

“Swinging Metals” : Volatility climbs to highest since January 2017 on trade fears

SPI INDEX

SMI INDEX

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Tradseni index : New 52-week highs divided by the sum of the new highs plus the new lows red zone = overbought conditions

PUT/CALL ratio :. Ratio between the total volume of equity put options over call options, as reported at the end of the day red zone = oversold conditions

AAII US Bull Sentiment : The index reflect the sentiment of individual investors towards the stock market over the next 6 months red zone = overbought conditions

US STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS

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COMPANIES RESULTS / UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES

Analysts recommendations

Major companies results

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

US EPS [e]

Deere & Co 2.741

Upward Recommendations Downward Recommendations

RBS Upgraded to Buy at HSBC; PT 2.90 Pounds Walmart Downgraded to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $107

Glencore Upgraded to Hold at Liberum Tencent Downgraded to Add at GuoSen; PT HK$410

Lenovo Upgraded to Buy at BNP Paribas; PT HK$5.65 Vodafone Downgraded to Sell at DZ Bank; PT 1.50 Pounds

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ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Time Country / Zone Event Period Survey Prior Relevance

02:00 JN Nationwide Dept Sales YoY Jul -- 3.10% Medium

08:00 RU PPI YoY Jul 17.40% 16.10% Medium

10:00 EC ECB Current Account SA Jun -- 22'400'000'000 Medium

10:00 IT Current Account Balance Jun -- 2'226'000'000 Medium

10:30 IT General Government Debt Jun -- 2'327'400'000'000 Low

11:00 EC CPI YoY Jul F 2.10% 2.00% High

14:30 CA CPI YoY Jul -- 2.50% High

14:30 CA Consumer Price Index Jul -- 133.60 Medium

15:00 RU Retail Sales Real YoY Jul 3.00% 3.00% High

15:00 RU Unemployment Rate Jul 4.70% 4.70% High

15:00 RU Real Wages YoY Jul 7.00% 7.20% Medium

16:00 US Leading Index Jul 0.40% 0.50% High

16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Aug P 97.90 97.90 High

16:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Aug P -- 2.90% Low

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COMMODITIES FUTURES

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 17.08.2018 08:00

WHEAT -0.78 SUGAR -32.06

COFFEE -0.68 ZINC -28.13

SOYBEAN MEAL -0.66 LEAN HOGS -22.71

SOYBEAN -0.65 COPPER -20.59

SILVER -0.63 COFFEE -19.41

CORN -0.41 SILVER -14.73

GASOLINE -0.25 SOYBEAN OIL -14.66

GOLD -0.12 LIVE CATTLE -11.93

BRENT CRUDE OIL -0.03 ALUMINIUM -11.19

LIVE CATTLE - GOLD -10.27

WTI CRUDE OIL 0.02 SOYBEAN -7.57

COPPER 0.17 CORN 3.71

SOYBEAN OIL 0.28 NICKEL 4.33

NAT GAS 0.34 COTTON 4.45

SUGAR 0.68 NAT GAS 4.63

ALUMINIUM 1.12 SOYBEAN MEAL 6.33

COTTON 1.30 BRENT CRUDE OIL 6.79

NICKEL 3.70 WTI CRUDE OIL 8.36

ZINC 4.15 GASOLINE 10.18

LEAN HOGS 5.72 WHEAT 26.00

1D CHANGE (%) YTD CHANGE (%)

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SWISS STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: Top 100 largest Swiss Companies

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 VP BANK AG 47% 1 ARYZTA AG -75% 1 KUDELSKI SA-BR 139.2 1 GAM HOLDING AG 9.3

2 VIFOR PHARMA AG 42% 2 MEYER BURGER TEC -67% 2 TEMENOS GROU-REG 57.7 2 SWISS RE AG 10.6

3 LOGITECH INTER-R 41% 3 GAM HOLDING AG -43% 3 YPSOMED HOLD-REG 46.1 3 ADECCO GROUP AG 10.8

4 KARDEX AG-REG 37% 4 COMET HOLDING-R -41% 4 VIFOR PHARMA AG 43.6 4 SCHMOLZ+BICK-REG 11.0

5 TEMENOS GROU-REG 34% 5 RIETER HLDG-REG -38% 5 STRAUMANN HLDG-R 43.1 5 UBS GROUP AG 11.2

6 SIEGFRIED HO-REG 28% 6 BOBST GROUP -REG -37% 6 LINDT&SPRUENGLI 43.0 6 SWISS LIFE H AG 11.2

7 TECAN GROUP AG-R 21% 7 BURKHALTER HLDG -32% 7 TECAN GROUP AG-R 38.8 7 AUTONEUM HOLDING 11.5

8 LONZA GROUP -REG 20% 8 HOCHDORF HOLDING -30% 8 PANALPINA WE-REG 36.4 8 HELVETIA HOL-REG 11.7

9 IMPLENIA AG-REG 18% 9 EFG INTERNAT AG -29% 9 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC 36.1 9 EFG INTERNAT AG 12.0

10 EMMI AG-REG 18% 10 DORMAKABA HOLDIN -29% 10 SUNRISE COMMUNIC 34.1 10 LEONTEQ AG 12.0

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 LONZA GROUP -REG 65 1 VALORA HLDG -REG 26 1 NEWRON PHARMACEU 179% 1 TEMENOS GROU-REG -22%

2 CEMBRA MONEY BAN 64 2 MEYER BURGER TEC 27 2 MEYER BURGER TEC 148% 2 LINDT&SPRUENGLI -11%

3 PANALPINA WE-REG 64 3 BURCKHARDT COMPR 28 3 AMS AG 63% 3 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC -11%

4 VALIANT HLDG AG 63 4 GAM HOLDING AG 28 4 GAM HOLDING AG 35% 4 SCHINDLER HO-REG -10%

5 TEMENOS GROU-REG 62 5 SWISS PRIME -REG 28 5 RIETER HLDG-REG 33% 5 PANALPINA WE-REG -6%

6 KARDEX AG-REG 61 6 ARYZTA AG 28 6 EFG INTERNAT AG 31% 6 YPSOMED HOLD-REG -5%

7 LINDT&SPRUENGLI 60 7 BOBST GROUP -REG 28 7 CREDIT SUISS-REG 30% 7 GIVAUDAN-REG -4%

8 FORBO HOLDIN-REG 60 8 ARBONIA AG 28 8 COMET HOLDING-R 30% 8 BANQUE CANTO-REG -4%

9 NESTLE SA-REG 60 9 HOCHDORF HOLDING 29 9 BOBST GROUP -REG 29% 9 KARDEX AG-REG -3%

10 BELIMO HOLDING-R 59 10 DUFRY AG-REG 32 10 AUTONEUM HOLDING 28% 10 BELIMO HOLDING-R -2%

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EUROPEAN STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: Euro Stoxx 50 index

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 AIRBUS SE 30% 1 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG -38% 1 HERMES 43.2 1 VOLKSWAGEN-PREF 5.6

2 ADIDAS AG 25% 2 BAYER AG-REG -25% 2 ESSILOR INTL 31.6 2 DAIMLER AG 6.3

3 SAFRAN SA 24% 3 DEUTSCHE POST-RG -23% 3 ASML HOLDING NV 29.9 3 BAYER MOTOREN WK 7.3

4 HERMES 24% 4 BBVA -23% 4 L'OREAL 29.0 4 BBVA 7.6

5 LVMH MOET HENNE 21% 5 ING GROEP NV -23% 5 SAFRAN SA 23.8 5 SOC GENERALE SA 7.8

6 ASML HOLDING NV 20% 6 SAINT GOBAIN -22% 6 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 23.8 6 BNP PARIBAS 8.2

7 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 18% 7 DAIMLER AG -22% 7 VIVENDI 23.7 7 AXA 8.7

8 NOKIA OYJ 17% 8 BANCO SANTANDER -20% 8 LVMH MOET HENNE 23.7 8 ING GROEP NV 8.9

9 ENI SPA 15% 9 SOC GENERALE SA -18% 9 SAP SE 23.3 9 BANCO SANTANDER 9.0

10 KONINKLIJKE AHOL 14% 10 BNP PARIBAS -17% 10 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 22.4 10 INTESA SANPAOLO 9.8

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 ADIDAS AG 68 1 BAYER AG-REG 17 1 VOLKSWAGEN-PREF 46% 1 HERMES -12%

2 DEUTSCHE POST-RG 57 2 INTESA SANPAOLO 28 2 BAYER AG-REG 44% 2 SAFRAN SA -6%

3 DANONE 56 3 ING GROEP NV 29 3 INTESA SANPAOLO 36% 3 L'OREAL -1%

4 SAP SE 56 4 BBVA 30 4 SAINT GOBAIN 35% 4 KONINKLIJKE AHOL 1%

5 SAFRAN SA 54 5 BANCO SANTANDER 31 5 BNP PARIBAS 33% 5 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 2%

6 HERMES 52 6 SAINT GOBAIN 31 6 SOC GENERALE SA 33% 6 ESSILOR INTL 3%

7 DEUTSCHE TELEKOM 52 7 BASF SE 32 7 ING GROEP NV 31% 7 UNILEVER NV-CVA 4%

8 LVMH MOET HENNE 51 8 INDITEX 32 8 BANCO SANTANDER 30% 8 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 5%

9 MUENCHENER RUE-R 50 9 ENEL SPA 33 9 BBVA 30% 9 ADIDAS AG 6%

10 SANOFI 49 10 BNP PARIBAS 33 10 BASF SE 29% 10 AIR LIQUIDE SA 7%

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US STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: S&P 500 Index

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 AMAZON.COM INC 61% 1 GENERAL ELECTRIC -30% 1 AMAZON.COM INC 72.5 1 GENERAL MOTORS C 6.0

2 MASTERCARD INC-A 35% 2 FORD MOTOR CO -23% 2 CHARTER COMMUN-A 68.7 2 FORD MOTOR CO 7.0

3 TWENTY-FIRST C-A 32% 3 KRAFT HEINZ CO/T -23% 3 PAYPAL HOLDINGS 36.3 3 METLIFE INC 8.8

4 TWENTY-FIRST - B 32% 4 PHILIP MORRIS IN -20% 4 SCHLUMBERGER LTD 33.9 4 CAPITAL ONE FINA 8.8

5 NIKE INC -CL B 28% 5 HALLIBURTON CO -19% 5 COSTCO WHOLESALE 32.0 5 AT&T INC 9.4

6 CONOCOPHILLIPS 26% 6 AT&T INC -15% 6 MASTERCARD INC-A 31.9 6 GOLDMAN SACHS GP 9.5

7 APPLE INC 26% 7 ALTRIA GROUP INC -15% 7 VISA INC-CLASS A 30.8 7 MORGAN STANLEY 10.0

8 MICROSOFT CORP 26% 8 3M CO -14% 8 NIKE INC -CL B 30.2 8 CELGENE CORP 10.3

9 TARGET CORP 26% 9 CELGENE CORP -14% 9 MICROSOFT CORP 25.2 9 CVS HEALTH CORP 10.4

10 ELI LILLY & CO 24% 10 CATERPILLAR INC -14% 10 SIMON PROPERTY 24.9 10 IBM 10.5

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 ELI LILLY & CO 86 1 FORD MOTOR CO 25 1 HALLIBURTON CO 35% 1 TARGET CORP -5%

2 WALMART INC 81 2 BOOKING HOLDINGS 27 2 GENERAL MOTORS C 30% 2 ELI LILLY & CO -4%

3 APPLE INC 76 3 HALLIBURTON CO 30 3 GENERAL ELECTRIC 28% 3 SOUTHERN CO -3%

4 MERCK & CO 76 4 GENERAL ELECTRIC 31 4 SCHLUMBERGER LTD 26% 4 BRISTOL-MYER SQB -2%

5 PFIZER INC 73 5 SCHLUMBERGER LTD 31 5 CATERPILLAR INC 24% 5 PFIZER INC 0%

6 EXELON CORP 72 6 INTEL CORP 32 6 GENERAL DYNAMICS 24% 6 PROCTER & GAMBLE 0%

7 CVS HEALTH CORP 72 7 CHEVRON CORP 33 7 CHARTER COMMUN-A 24% 7 NEXTERA ENERGY 0%

8 ALLSTATE CORP 71 8 BLACKROCK INC 35 8 BLACKROCK INC 24% 8 COSTCO WHOLESALE 1%

9 QUALCOMM INC 71 9 FACEBOOK INC-A 36 9 CELGENE CORP 24% 9 APPLE INC 1%

10 NEXTERA ENERGY 71 10 GENERAL MOTORS C 36 10 CHEVRON CORP 22% 10 WALMART INC 1%

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1875 FINANCE – OFFICES & CONTACT

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T +41 (0) 22 595 18 75

lschmid@1875.ch

OFFICES 1875 CIO OFFICE CONTACTS

Jean-Alexandre MERYAdvisory team

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jamery@1875.ch

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lsoots@1875.ch

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