BRAZIL

UNITED STATES

CANADA

MEXICO

ALGERIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

CHINA

AUSTRALIA

SAUDIARABIA INDIA

ARGENTINA

PERU

BOLIVIA

VENEZUELA

MONGOLIA

TURKEY

LIBYA

ICELAND

EGYPT

JAPAN

SUDAN

PAKISTAN

OMAN

YEMEN

MADAGASCAR

INDONESIA

PHILIPPINES

ECUADOR

NIGER

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

ZAIRE(DRC)

TANZANIA

SOUTH AFRICA

LESOTHO

ANGOLA

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA

NAMIBIA

ZAMBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

GABON

IRAK

SRI LANKA

BANGLADESH

MYANMAR

VIETNAM

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

TIMOR-LESTE

NEW ZEALAND

SOUTH KOREA

CAMBODIA

LAOS

MALAYSIA

IRAN

NIGERIA

CHAD

MALI

TUNISIAISRAEL

JORDAN

SYRIA

LEBANON

DJIBOUTI

KUWAIT

TAIWAN

COLOMBIA

COSTA-RICA

FRENCHGUIANA

PANAMA

DOMINICANREPUBLIC

HAITI

CUBA

GUATEMALA

EL SALVADOR

NICARAGUA

HONDURAS

JAMAICA

FRENCHANTILLES

GUINEA

IVORY COAST

SIERRA LEONE

LIBERIA GHANA TOGO

SAO TOME& PRINCIPE

GUIANA

SURINAM

RWANDA

BURUNDI

CYPRUS

BAHRAINQATAR

UNITEDARABEMIRATES

FRENCHPOYNESIA

TRINIDAD & TOBACCO

PALESTINE

MALDIVES

HONG KONG

SINGAPORE

MAURITIUS

ILE DE LA RÉUNION

CAP VERT

GROENLAND(DENMARK)

ERITREA

CAMEROON

UGANDA

BENIN

BURKINAFASO

CONGO

MALAWI

ZIMBABWE

SENEGAL

BOTSWANA

NEPAL

UZBEKISTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

THAILAND

PARAGUAY

CHILE

URUGUAY

AFGHANISTAN

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • 2ND QUARTER 2015

RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING A1 A2 A3 A4 B C DVERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH

A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk

• Comprehension of the business environment

• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

CHINA

The level of the private sector debt has been increasing: 207 % of GDP in early 2014 compared to 130% of GDP in 2008 and non-performing loans are on the rise. Solvency of the most fragile players needs to be watched, especially within industries experiencing overcapacities (cement or steel sectors) and real estate market (real estate investment is slowing and property prices are declining).

DOWNGRADE

PORTUGAL

After Portugal’s exit from the bailout plan, the country sees an improvement in its fiscal position and a rebalancing of its external accounts. Growth should reach 1.5 % in 2015 and 2016. On the business side: higher margins, decline in bankruptcies and satisfactory payment experience.

CZECH REPUBLICThe country is benefiting from the economy recovery in Western Europe. The growth should reach a comfortable level (2.5 % in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016).

VIETNAM

Improvement in the economicperformance (6% growth in GDP in 2014) and an acceleration in private consumption, thanks to low inflation. The external risk has reduced the current account surplus and the exchange reserves progress.

UPGRADES

B

A4 A3 B A4TURKEY

GERMANY

FRANCE

ITALY

SPAIN

UNITED KINGDOM

FINLAND

SWEDEN

DENMARK

PORTUGAL

ICELAND

IRELAND

RUSSIA

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ROMANIA

POLAND

UKRAINE

BULGARIA

HUNGARY

SLOVAKIA

CZECHREPUBLIC

GREECE

KOSOVO

ALBANIA

MONTENEGRO

BOSNIA

CROATIA

SERBIA

NETHERLANDS

LUXEMBOURG

ESTONIA

BELARUS

MALTA

CYPRUS

MOLDOVA

BELGIUM

NORWAY

SLOVENIA

MACEDONIA

SWITZERLANDAUSTRIA

A4

A4

A3