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A Watershed Year

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A B O B

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A Watershed YearAm h I Fd 2008

edited by Cornelia F. Mutel

University o iowa Pressiowa City

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I , I 52242

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c d Acdgm

Iduc x

Section IRising Rivers, Spreading Waters

Wh u Fd I? A. Allen Bradley, Jr. 7

Wh W h 2008 Fd S Lg? Witold F. Krajewski and Ricardo Mantilla 19

I d h Fd Richard A. Fosse 31

Th I d h Fd Barbara Eckstein and Rodney Lehnertz 39

L u d h Fd Linda Langston 45

Fcg Rcd Fd A. Allen Bradley, Jr. 53

Emg Fd Fquc David Eash 61

Contents

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Section IIWhy Here, Why Now?

Th Hdgc Fp Au p Michael Burkart 77

Th Hdg b Ldcp Wayne Petersen 87

Th Dm d R: Dg d Op John Castle 95

Th Dm d h Fd: u u? Robert F. Sayre 103

W m hg Id? Eugene S. Takle 111

Section III Flood Damages, Flood Costs, Flood Benets

Fd Ec Achgc S Joe Alan Artz and Lynn M. Alex 123

Fd Ec Md mmu Cornelia F. Mutel 131

Ecmc L m h Fd Daniel Otto 139

H Dd h Fd Ac Fmd?

Richard Cruse, Hillary Olson, and John M. Laen 147

Wh Yu Fd? Dana Kolpin and Keri Hornbuckle 155

A Qu Hzd Peter S. Thorne 163

Fd Ec Nu mmu John Pearson 171

Section IV Looking Back, Looking Forward

Wh (N I) h Bg O m Jack Riessen 185

Whd-Bd Fd Mgm Douglas M. Johnston 193

Fd B Nathan C. Young and A. Jacob Odgaard 199

Mgg b Ru Wayne Petersen 205

Fmg Sm Th R FdgLaura Jackson and Dennis Keeney 215

Th G Fd 1993: Dd W L A L? Gerald E. Galloway 227

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Idx 247

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Preace and Acknowledgments

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preace and acknowledgments

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preace and acknowledgments x

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x preace and acknowledgments

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Introduction

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x introduction

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Illustration by Mohamed Habib and A. Allen Bradley, Jr., based on USGS Iowa Water Science

Center (http://ia.water.usgs.gov/), record ooding data; and Monthly Flood Reports, USGS

WaterWatch (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/), duration above ood stage.

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http://www.linncounty.org. Background photo rom ISU GIS Facility, http://ortho.gis.iastate.edu/.

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projects/ood_2008/2008_airphotos_ood_52.html.

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seCtion i

Rising Rivers, Spreading Waters

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Reerences CitedBchd, S. F. 2007. Rc mpm h .S. Ggc Su

Smggg gm . . . m h N Sm Im gm.

.S. Ggc Su Fc Sh 2007-3080.

Lud, K. D. 2009. Ggph, SGS I W Scc , I c.

cmmuc, Mch 3, 2009.

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1 What Causes Floods in Iowa?

A. Allen Bradley, Jr.

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FIGURE 1-1 O I by h h z (

f by ). Th y (Mh) hh

(A). Th y (Mh) /y

(J) h h . S , h

. Illustration by the author, based on

annual peak discharge data obtained online rom the U.S. Geological Survey at waterdata.usgs.

gov/nwis. Flood occurrences are or 167 sites in Iowa with at least 30 years or more o operation.

Sites along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers are excluded. For each river, its bankull discharge is

approximated by the annual peak discharge exceeded in two-thirds o the years, which corresponds

to a 1.5-year ood recurrence interval (Leopold 1994). A ood occurrence is then dened as an an-

nual peak discharge greater than its bankull discharge.

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wat causes loods in iowa?

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dg , ccumu d cc h . I c, m

d du high rate u m ddu

hudm c mm b ugh. W ch d m

quck, d h pd, h h dg ccu h hu

d h m.Ahugh h gz bu d dcb h cmm ,

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bg d h h mb. I bgg d ccd

h pg d umm ( fgu 1-2); m h bgg d h

ccud dug h mh Ju d Ju. Th dmc bg d

cud b ummm hudm m dmc v g

d m. Ahugh pgm m d d cmm

I, h mp d pduc h bgg d . u mp, bg

d d.

Ech bg d h , bu h d 1993 d 2008 d u

I d h. F g d mdum-z I , bu

h xpcd h bgg d 1993 2008; m , bu

FIGURE 1-2 O h b I by h h

z ( f by ). Th b f by h b

( h) h U.S. G Sy . Th b-

b h h ( f 1-1), yy

. M b h h J Jy; h J

h h b . L h h b

h y h . Illustration by the author, based on annual peak dis-

charge data obtained online rom the U.S. Geological Survey at waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis. Results

are or 167 streamgage sites in Iowa with at least 30 years o operation. Sites along the Mississippi

and Missouri Rivers are excluded.

J Fb M A My J J A S O N D

Date

Category

L R

M R

S R

Drainage Area

>1000 2

100 1000 2

10 100 2

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

BiggestFloodOccurrences(%)

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f xpcd h bgg d h. N h I d mch

h dpd mpc.1

Wh uqu bu h h 1993 d 2008 h cd uch

m d I? I m , h pcu h 1993 d 2008

d m. Bh d ccud d pg.

F h hd I, 2008 h h 114

h h cd h b kp h ; h d b h cd

pg cd. Ahugh h d pg pcp

1993, h b g.2

Th h fd h umm. Th umm 1993 d u

h cd. Th pcp ccumu hppg 2.3

m h umm g mu 5.5 ch h h g p-

cp ! Summ 2008 , h m pducg dg Ju, bu pcp dmhd mh d; ,

h h umm cd. Lg pcp m h

pcdg h d hugh h g umm, 1993 h

cd I, d 2008 h cd .

I bh 1993 d 2008, h xc pcp h pducd

g mu ug h dcp. Bh xd

m h h um cug hugh I . I 1993,

h u dchg um h g cd, bu h um h g-m g m mgg h d d I

R b. I 2008, h u dchg um h m h

g, h cd g cd. cd, bh 1993 d 2008

pcdd b -h-vg , uggg h m hv hd

m mu h uu d.3

hp h m g dc b h 1993 d 2008 d

h du h umm pd. I c, h 1993 d

umm-g . A uuu d p h p cud m dp d pd c h Md mh, m

md-Ju u md-Augu (Wh . 1993). H ccumu

I ( fgu 1-3) ud m h hudm hugh-

u h umm, d cd m h m p. B c, h

2008 d h-d; h uuu h pd

, f dumpg h h h d h p

h , d cmpg g h h uh ( fgu 1-3).

A h M d Ju, I md d h h d.

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Th g pd 1993 pducd much g d du d

hgh umm u um, hch c h R

h I R ju upm m I ( fgu 1-4). I bh 1993 d

2008, h R fd dug h pg,

mgd (ccdg pg gud) duc dg d-

m. I Ju 2008, h g h bg g h

mgc p, bu quck d h h d h

h d c. I Ju 1993, bg g h mgc

p, md cpc u Spmb.

FIGURE 1-4 C R hyh b ()

h y 1993 2008. W b h y y

h h h h y (12 ; h 10). Th

h h I R I Cy h 1993 2008 by

. I bh y, h C R h

h . Th, Mh, h

b h 683 . I 2008, qy

h A. I 1993, h

h y

Sb. Illustration by the author, based on daily reservoir level data obtained onlinerom the U.S. Army Corps o Engineers at rivergages.com.

2008C

1993C

19932008

20

15

10

05

00

695

690

685

680

65J Fb M A My J J A S O

Sy L

Date

Reservo

irLevel(eetabovemsl)

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Th dc d du d h hgh

d c ( fgu 1-5). I 2008, h d cd hughu

I m M md-Ju. Ad, h cdd hugh h m-

d h umm. Bu 1993, cd p f mh d

md hgh much h umm.

Th d dd gfc h z h h

cd. O, h mpc h 1993 dg gfc m d-

pd. Fdg cd I bu p I, K,

M, Mu, Nb, Nh D, Suh D, d Wc

( fgu 1-6). Th d k mg h bgg bh h upp Mpp

d Mu R . I c, h mpc h 2008 dg

m I d Wc, hugh h dg cd p

I, Id, M, Mu, Nbk, d Suh Dk. O hMpp R, h 2008 d ppchd 1993 h mgg

Ku, I; mgud dmhd pd dm.

D h d pd cu h h x bg d m b ?

Th d ugg h m k ud b pg ummm

d, c h h m h p d dpd hudm

c pduc g ccumu (Hchbck 1991). I 1993 d 2008

dc, h hpp h d pg mp -

g h g bg d. I bh h , , m

FIGURE 1-5 F hyh b () h y 1993

2008 () h C R C R, (b) h I R I Cy. Th C

R - , h f C R.

A , , h

h h . I , h I R by h C

R I Cy; h h

. A b h C R h

1993 2008, 10,000 h y xh. I 2008, h -J h . I 1993, h

129 y . A C R, h C R h b

1993 A 4. R hh, b h hy

q h h . Th 1993 I Cy A

10 h h - . Th, h C R y

hh, y hy by C C R

C, hh h I R b h I Cy, h h

hh h . Illustration by the author, based on instantaneous and daily dis-

charge data obtained online rom the U.S. Geological Survey at waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis. Flood

stage as determined by National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service,

http://www.weather.gov/oh/ahps/.

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(a) Cedar River at Cedar Rapids

(b)Iowa River at Iowa City

2008C

1993C

19932008

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

F Dh

Date

F Dh

19932008

2008C

1993C

J Fb M A My J J A S O

Date

Flow(thousandsocs)

Flow(thousandsocs)

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

J Fb M A My J J A S O

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d pg h-ud cpd puh u h

b pg hughu much h . A umm ppchd,

h dcp cud up much m , d pmd

d g h h ud. I h uu, d c pg

d hud d g h h m b .

A h h hud m g mj d

15 ? O uch h d d b xpcd, d m

FIGURE 1-6 Th x h M C B h 1993 2008

. O, h h 1993 . I

j , h M h M. Th

My -J 2008 I W, hh

h h . Illustration by Radoslaw Goska, with

1993 ood area as in Parrett et al. (1993) and 2008 ood area based on the authors analysis o

peak discharge data at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Both are approximations o the areas

with ooding streams.

1993 F Ex

2008 F Ex

0 100 200 300

N

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wat causes loods in iowa? 7

m b bgg h h h d . W d dd d

b ccd bu uu dg. Ju bcu h xpcd

d d m h h k h ubqu . Fd

dm ; gmb , u bd uc c (d d)

ccu b dm chc.

u, m f pcd h 1993 d c---m

, uupb bchm g hch h d ud b

mud pcp ud b g-vd u, dpd m-

pc, d h md uudg h d. Th 1993 d

upcdd m , bu xd c h

Md h dg ccud (P . 1993). Rgb, h mk

b h 1993 bchm m h hpd ud bu h d

pp uu bg d, d h p ( c p) hg d 2008. W m h m m h mh

h I d 2008?

Notes1. Th I d c bd h uh u mxmum

d dchg cd mgg , bd m h .S. Ggc

Su (hp://d.ug.g/).

2. Th pcp c h 1993 d 2008 d bd m

cm d pcp d I, bd m h N mc D

(.cdc..g). Th pcp d p 114- pd (1895

2008) h h cm d cg h hd I.

3. Th u dchg um h 1993 d 2008 d

bd m m d d I R bd m h

.S. Ggc Su (hp://d.ug.g/).

Reerences Citedhpp, . F. 1986. Qu- cc . I Mesoscale Meteorology

and Forecasting, d. . S. R. B: Amc Mgc Sc.

Hchbc, K. K. 1991. m d d. I National Water Summary 198889:

Hydrology Events and Floods and Droughts, cmpd b R. W. u, E. B. h,

R. S. Rb, d D. W. Md, pp. 6788. .S. Ggc Su W Supp

p 2375. hp://pub..ug.g/ugpub/p/p2375.

Lpd, L. B. 1994. A View o the River. mbdg, M.: Hd .

Lpd, L. B., M. G. Wm, d J. . M. 1964. Fluvial Processes in

Geomorphology. S Fcc: W. H. Fm d ., ., N. B. Mch, d R. W. Jm, J. 1993. Fd dchg h pp

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Mpp R B, 1993. I Floods in the Upper Mississippi River Basin 1993.

R, V.: .S. Ggc Su cu 1120-A.

S, . J., D. A. Eh, H. J. H, d E. M. Gd. 1991. I d d

dugh. I National Water Summary 1988-89: Hydrology Events and Floods and

Droughts, cmpd b R. W. u, E. B. h, R. S. Rb, d D. W. Md,

pp. 279286. .S. Ggc Su W Supp p 2375. hp://pub..ug.g/ugpub/p/p2375.

Wh, K. L., K. . Vg, d G. J. Wch. 1993. cp h pp

Mpp R B, Ju 1 hugh Ju 31, 1993. I Floods in the Upper

Mississippi River Basin 1993, R, V.: .S. Ggc Su cu 1120-B.

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In JUne 2008, I xpcd m h dg -

cdd. Fd, cmm dfd v vg h bk,

dd c d h cud . Sm 1.2 m c I

gcuu d cd b d.1 Fm p, dcu

dcph h m ch m . Th cuc h I d

Mpp R md dd h h pudd m h

uc. I d Rpd, x-- m dg h b

ud h hd g x b h hd.Th pk h d R d Rpd chd 140,000 cubc

p cd (c) Ju 13. Th xm g u f m

g h g u p h .2 O h I R

Mg, h pk chd 51,000 c Ju 12, u m g h

g u pk h . Dm m Mg, h

R d m pc, bu I (h d bu

8 m b h dm), h I R chd p 41,100

c d dd gfc h I cmpu. h h m h g u p (SGS 2009).

2 Why Were the 2008 Floods So Large?

Witold F. KrajewskiRicardo Mantilla

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Th h 2008 d mdu mgud pd

fgu 2-1 d 2-2, hdgph h p M d Ju dchg ( )

mgg h d d I R d h bu. N

h m c, pc dg g , h 2008 p

g xcdd h g u pk , h ugh cpd

fg b h bm.

Wh h g h d? Wh h g? M h

pdd h qu, g gp uqu u h d d-

cp h mgh pd . H cd h cbug c:

h v h pcdd h d, h hgh- m

M d Ju, d h pb pc m c

xm g, bu hch pcp pc md d cd

h dg xd .F, cd h pcdg . Th g xpcd h

c mm. Ag dph c I chd 11

ch b Fbu (NOHRS 2008). Th m ud h gud,

hch md M d gfc dd h pg cp

m p h . Wh c mpu d cpd mg

b, vg vb d h hugh p (h

pug mu m p hugh h ).

ud h cd hp xp h Ju dg? Exm hgph fgu 2-3 ( p 14). P A h h d c,

dph, d qu (h mu h ud u

m mg h ) Dcmb 2007 hugh Mch 2008, gd

h I (NOHRS 2008). N h h g dph chd

11 ch b h d Fbu, h u g b h d

Mch, h m hd b Mch mpu g b zg

(p B; IEM 2008). Th c h m Mch dg c

p D d E. Th mh, dchg bh d Rpd dMg g , chg 40,000 c d 18,000 c pc-

, bu h dppd bck m b h d Mch (SGS 2009).

Thu, h h dc pb dg.

Th dd, h, d d-p cd. Sm h mg

md h fd mu. Thu, h h Ap m

d (p ; IEM 2009), h cud bb h pg .

Id, h gud pducd gfc u d dd hgh d-

chg h ( Ap dchg p D d E). Fdgm h m pd ud h d Ap.

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FIGURE 2-2 S h hyh h I

R b hh h 2008 , y h h x h h. S h I R h 1 f 2-5;

Rh C by h h I R b T M, C

C h I R C. V , My 31J 20,

y. U q h . Th hyh

h h h h hh h b h , hh

( h h h h y h). Th

b, h h b, h

(h h , h), h C R D (b

M I Cy) I Cy. R h h h

y h b hy, h h

. Illustration by Radoslaw Goska, based on USGS 2009.

I R Mh (1532 q )

A A P F

Rh C H (56 q )

I R M (294 q )

C C Ox (58 q )

I R I Cy (321 q )

25

20

15

10

5

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

60

50

40

30

20

10

50

40

30

20

10

DischargeinThousandso

CubicFeetperSecond

My 10 My 20 My 31 J 10 J 20

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FIGURE 2-3 Th f z h h y h 2008 . Th -

y 11 h h ( A, b

y NOHRSC 2008). Wh b z (

B, b I C R b, IEM 2008), h y,

Mh ( D E, b USGS 2009). H, hy -

( C, C I R b, IEM 2008)

qy , f A h y J. N

h E h h h b M h h I Cy, b

I Cy by h C D. P 14 hh. Illustration by Radoslaw Goska.

Db Jy Fby Mh A My J Jy A

Db Jy Fby Mh A My J Jy A20

15

12

8

4

Inches

Degrees(F)

Inches-Daily

Thous

andsocs

Thousandsocs

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

2.5

1.5

0.5

150

100

50

60

40

20

A) Snow

B) Air Temperature

C) Precipitation

D) Discharge at Cedar River at Cedar Rapids

E) Discharge at Iowa River at Marengo

AbNB

AbNB

Inches-Weekly

10

.5

5

2.5

Wy A

M T

Dy A

Mx T

W Eq (h)

Dh (h)

C %50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

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F m M, I cd . R hugh-

u I ud m b M 25, pdg h pb

cm b h m. Fm pd cp M, d mpu

chd pc h m h .

Ad h cm h . I M d Ju, v

m d c h , cg d g d m,

bu g dumpg h d d. d pm

Ju dg d dv. Th u mc Ju

1993, h qu m ud cd d h pp

Mpp R b.

S md u d gm gc pk bu cd

bg b hughu h (ND 2008), ccg I h h

ubqu pc d m cquc -b- m.H, h h hgh- m h uc Ju m

d , cu xm h um dumpd h

h cu dg m cmpx.

Fgu 2-4 h h mgud h m m M hugh Ju

v 100 h hughu h . T pu h m

hc ppc, cmpd h mxmum ccumu

d, , , d h h (IEM 2008)

I g-m m u mxmum pcp (MAMP3

) h mdu m. Th cmp c p: c

h MAM ud b cdd , bu much g h

h MAM ud dd b uuu.

Th u h h h h -d mxmum ch

Ju 2008 cmpd MAM (upp mp fgu 2-4), h

bu h h cu h h MAMP (h

h ). B h dd, h ddu m h md c I

Ju cmm; g pc m pcdd h d. O hh hd, g m pd (h mg h mp fgu 2-4),

h M/Ju 2008 mxmum ccumu much m

xm, xcdg h MAM m I (h , h much

g h ).

Thugh mpg bu h upcdd u h 2008

d h h k m, h h h . Lg

ccumu hughu I 2008, ju c

I h h dg ccud. Fuhm, h hccd h h h g ccumu h

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One Day

Two Weeks

One Week

Three Weeks

Ratio 0.25 0.50 0.5 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.5 2.00 2.25 2.50

FIGURE 2-4 Th h b h 2008

My J h x -

(MAMP, 3) h I NWS C Ob h .

C z h h , h h h, y,

bh h b 0 1, 1 2, h 2 y.

Th C I R b C R M

f 2-5 2-6 ( 1 h h). Th MAMP h

h h y, x hh h h

h , y 50100 y. Th MAMP h 2. h

( -y ), .1 h ( h- , h h MAMPb h q, h x

h y h ). O h , (h

1) h h 2008 h h MAMP h

xy y y. F h -y , b 50% h 2008 -y

h h MAMP. By h , -y h I

J y . Wh , , h , h

My/J 2008 x h MAMP qy ( h ),

b 10 h h

x. B h h x h I h

x h , h 2008 b x y h b x-

y . Illustration by Radoslaw Goska, based on IEM 2008.

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ccud h , h 2008 h h I h

(h h d h m c).

S h h d h I d d R? H h

pb h m h dpd ud c h u

g p um pducd h 2008 up d, hch

u f m g h h g p I?

hp h cup pc m, h h mg d c

cpd mxmz d h hd-h c. T

udd h ccp, d h m h

pcfc p h . R b hd dfd b

h p dcp h d cmm p . E

mj b hd hud m d c h m cmpx

h d h dcp. Th pd hugh h -ccd b dpd c, m mp d c,

p, u, pxm dg ch, d h p

d c g h ch. D gud c bb , hch

h udgud. Bu h h uc ud

gud u quck h uc d h c dg ch. Oc

ch, m pd, bu h 5 p

cd I .

F c h b, c ugh m h m h h ch h b u. Fgu 2-5 ( p

12) h h d d I R b b d Rpd d Mg

(h R), h h z m. Wh h mp

md, u c mg h h u ch p

h um h u gd hu d m mup upm

c. N mg h h g m h Ch C, Cd

Rpd d bv m bu u d . I

cd m h W d h h m, hh m g hugh W, h m bh m

cmb d Rpd bu h m m, cg c

jm gu uh hu c jm.

Fgu 2-6 ( p 13) dm h h dd h hppd

2008: Th m h ccud Ju cd m

c jm h ud h dg d Rpd h. R

h upp hd g Ju 8 md dm cmb h

g h hd Ju 12, h ccu m cmpud-g pduc uxpcd, pd v d g -dfd d

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w were te loods so large? 7

FIGURE 2-5 M h q hh h

h C I R, C R M (j

b h C R h I R), h h h

h. F h I R, y h C R b

h- h I R. S f

2-6 h f h - , 1 I C R

, f I-2 h b h h. P 12

h h. Illustration by Radoslaw Goska, based on Mantilla et al. 2006.

xm g p d Rpd Ju 13. Ou bd

d m h .S. N Wh Sc NEXRAD h d, hch

dpd 1990. Th d u c m d

h f m, pdg upcdd pcu h c d mg

d ccumu.

N

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FIGURE 2-6 Th h h ( by h) h h

C I R b C R M hh h J

2008 . (S f I-2 h h.) Wh h h y h h f 2-5 -

, x h 2008 C R h y: Th b h

J 8 h C R y h , h f

h b (f 2-1, b ). Th , hy b J 8

q , b f y, C R h

h h h j h C R J 12. Th

h h x, h h ,

-f, xy C R h -

C R hy. S h J 13 . P

13 h h. Illustration by Radoslaw Goska, based on U.S. National

Weather Service NEXRAD data, rom Hydro-NEXRAD.net.

N

Inches o Rain

0.1 1 2 3 4 5 6

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w were te loods so large?

Th m ccp xp h m b xpcd md

dg. Bcu h b pc d m g d,

ccu m uu d cu c jm. T uz h

pc, u g fgu 2-2. Nc h Rchd k d k (

c fgu 2-5), h b ud 60 qu m , pdd

ch Ju m h g h-d p. Bcu p

ccumu -d m pd uuu g, pk d

bd xm m b.

A m hd h pk bd h I R b,

xcp p dm m h R (ju upm m

I ), hch gu h ( fgu 2-2). R duc

dm dg b cpg d d g mp,

g xdd pd m. H, f h , g dpd d h dm mgc p

u b ppd, h hppd h h R

Ju 10. A h m, h dm much b gu dm

d dg.

Oc h p ppd, h g dchg cud

dd pbm dm, h h I R hgh ugh

p bu k m dchgg d h

I R. h I R bu 5 m dmm h dm, Cv. Th, h h cvg d mvg C

dchg, h I R bcd up . Th cmbd

m h dd bu dc.

I umm, h h Ju 2008 d I cud

cmpx pc. M pc u u cbu

h dg qu dd . Ig qu xm

cud h xc h pg hgh mu, d h pb h

I Ju m m cc pc cc Mxch pud h Md b h J Sm.

R b, u m hum-md gg m, c b

b udd ud mccp. Ig qu

g mu d, gfc cmpu uc, d cmp-

hv bckgud m fd cc d gg. Thugh

uddg p v pqu pp h uu.

O cc-bd gud c c dd b uu d.

Rch dg b uddg h xc , ,d h v k cv b g hc h ucc

d mg .

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AcknowledgmentsW ppc h c Rd G ppg h fgu. Rch

ud h chp bg uppd b N Scc Fud d

BET-0842682 d EAR-0844101 d b h R d Jph Summ dm.

Notes1. Th m md ug d hg chg m NASS

2008.

2. Th g u p ccud b g h mxmum

bd ch cd. F h d R d Rpd, h hc

cd g bc m h 100 . Th qu dfd h m

u d b h d S Ggc Su (SGS). F SGS df,

hp://.ug.g/c/g.hm.

3. Th MAM ccud m ccumu m h pcfc ccumu (.g., d, , , c.). Th mp

ccu h g md b h u mxmum ch d ch

mgg. Thu I h 100 , ch h 100 cd, h MAM

h g 10,000 u.

Reerences CitedI Em M (IEM). 2008. Am, I: I S

Dpm Agm. hp://m.g..du/.M, R., V. K. Gup, d O. M. 2006. R cupd dmc d

ucu H cg p .Journal o Hydrology 322

(14): 155167.

N Agcuu Sc Sc (NASS). 2008. Ju 2008 cg p.

Whg, D..: .S. Dpm Agcuu. hp://ud.mb.c.

du/ud//Ac/2000/2008/Ac-06-30-2008.pd.

N mc D (ND). 2008. m 2008. Md .S.

d . Ah, N..: .S. Dpm mmc. hp://.

cdc..g//cm/ch/2008/d08.hm.

N Op Hdgc Rm Sg (NOHRS). 2008. Th

N Op Hdgc Rm Sg . Ah, N..:

N Wh Sc, N Occ d Amphc Adm.

hp://.hc..g/.

.S. Ggc Su (SGS). 2009. Water-Resources Data or the United States,

Water Year 2008: .S. Ggc Su W-D Rp WDR-S-2008, I

. hp://d..ug.g/2008/ch.jp.

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3 Iowa City and the Flood

Richard A. Fosse

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iowa cit and te lood

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1993.

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FIGURE 3-2 A fy- b h

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4 The University o Iowa and the Flood

Barbara EcksteinRodney Lehnertz

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Rdc H, g h .

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m h R cd, d h cc h h

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d h hd budg h d d h I R.

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h d pp c c, , d m u.

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te universit o iowa and te lood

FIGURE 4-1 Phh h Uy I A C J 16, h h

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j y b h 2008 , h h. Th M

A, y h , y h b h I R. A

y b h h h . Photograph by Tom Jorgensen, University o

Iowa Oce o University Relations Publications.

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te universit o iowa and te lood

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FIGURE 4-3 O J 14, h y b h , h 2,000

h b y b h h . Photograph by

David B. Jackson, University o Iowa.

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d-dmgd c, b $743 m.

Reerences Cited, D. 2008. Fm Dc R Mgm, I. E-m

cmmuc Rd Lhz, Dcmb 2008.

I (I). 2008. Fd Rc Rp Spmb 9, 2008, p. 22.

hp://.u.du/dc/c-p/dx.hm.

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5 Linn County and the Flood

Linda Langston

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h d . H h L u p h h.

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(NWS 2008). R h.

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linn count and te lood 7

FIGURE 5-1 W h h h Czh V hbh C R.

Photograph by Mike Dufy, Linn County Secondary Road Department.

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d, d c pdc m 24 26 28 (NWS 2008).

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linn count and te lood

FIGURE 5-2 Hb y E Hb h b

b F S NW h Q O C R. Photographby Mike Dufy, Linn County Secondary Road Department.

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FIGURE 5-3 D C R ( h h I 380 b, h y

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, d d Rpd h f p pp .

Reerences Cited.S. Ggc Su (SGS). 2008. W Ruc D, N W

Im Sm: Wb Ic, Sm I, d R

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linn count and te lood

d Rpd, IA. hp://.d.ug.g///p. Accd

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6 Forecasting a Record Flood

A. Allen Bradley, Jr.

In Iowa, nearly everyone h ud h c m d dc-

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g c g h d d I R.

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orecasting a record lood

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ch.

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H hughu I bgg Md, Ju 2, g puhd

d d g. B Thud, Ju 5, h NWS Fc Oc

h Qud d D M hd ud g m mjdg g h d d I R.2 Th u pd d. B

Sud, Ju 7, d h upm p h d d I

R hd g m h c h , d h m

h , h NWS cg mj dg d F,

d Rpd, d I .

Th cug md g h cg pc. I mg

c, h NWS R Fc u c c-

cumu cpd h x -u hu (pcp cuh u b ugh cg). Pcp c

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c d gd jb pdcg h ggphc g uu h

( p 2). H, h hudm dp, h h

hgh czd, d bd ccumu much g

h h c. F xmp, h c ud Ju 9 (p 2)

cd 24-hu pcp ccumu b 1 d 1.5 ch (

gfc mu) h d Rpd .3 H, b

2 d 4 ch bd.4 Th dc udpdc uu

ccumu cud hughu h d.

A h d udd, h NWS Fc Oc hd p c-

c c h mgc mg d pubc c. Th c pdd

up--h-mu m bvd cd, c

h upcmg d, d g h h u cud cu

g h c. Th c dmd d quck,bg cmmu pp h mgh hpp h d hd.

Wh h cug d g pg, h c c

cud b djud upd (fgu 6-1). B mdd Sud, Ju 8,

b h d R hd chd d g, h NWS upgdd

c m mj cd dg Cd Rpd. Ad b mdd

Md, Ju 9, h NWS cg cd dg d F d

I 5 d b h ud c.

Fc md pdc h much b g h ; h,h pubc d gh hgh dg . T

pdc g, c u p mum cuc g

cu, hch dp mpc hp b g d

(fgu 6-2). Th p mum pc md b h SGS

u m mgg mg pgm. Rg cu h

h m: h xd u h g d

g bvd h p (fgu 6-2). A m ud , h h Cd

R f cd d Rpd, ud b c g hg pu mud, d h g ud b m 11.5

hgh. Wh cd dg cpd m c c, c-

cmbd xd xg g cu h cud b ppd h

xm 2008 d. A h Nh C Rv Fc C, p

m h SGS gd d b d h h NWS dug h

d d xd g cu c g h d-mpcd .

Th pd dcu ccmph ccu, pc d Rpd;

v v dd, bcu h SGS mum md h v hd h pdg u v h dp

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FIGURE 6-1 Th h 2008 h C R C R

h I R I Cy. Th h h h h

; h h hh x h x y

(h hz). A h h b h h h

. Th h h h

h h . Th b h b h h h

x-h h y h . F-

z b h ,

h x 24 h h . F h C R, h

(6/11 6/13) h h C R

. Illustration by the author, based on NWS data as explained in ootnote 2.

Cedar River at Cedar Rapids

Iowa River at Iowa City

RiverStage(eet)

RiverStag

e(eet)

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

35

30

25

20

15

10

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

LocalPrecipitation(inches)

LocalPrecipita

tion(inches)

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

6/05 6/0 6/09 6/11 6/13 6/15 6/1

6/05 6/0 6/09 6/11 6/13 6/15 6/1

ObF C

P R(1993)

ObF C

P R(1929)

Date

Date

Mj F

M F

F S

Mj F

M F

F S

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much f cpd. Ah ucpd chg h mp-

b h d Rpd d V mgg.

O Thud, Ju 11, h SGS mgg d Rpd p d

cmp udd. pm h B u mgg V d b d b h h dd md p,

bu ubmgd. Th c pg h dk,

hg h b m uc cu cd. Ad h

u g .

B h mg Fd, Ju 12, h g g, ddg m

u d g d Rpd. A bu h m m, h

Rd Bdg 8h Au cpd h mhg c-

cud cp d h cud pcu hh mghhv c. Thugh h xd h SGS, mp

Flow Rate (thousands o cs)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

RiverStage(eet)

2008 F

1993 F

P-2008 M

R C2008 M

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

FIGURE 6-2 R , h C R C R.

D by h U.S. G Sy (USGS)

h (h ). A (h )

h bh h b. USGS

2008 (h b ), h ,

h h x h y f h

h y. Illustration by the author, based on USGS eld measure-

ments available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/.

Mj F

M F

F S

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orecasting a record lood

mgg bhd d Rpd d bg mg d

bu 20 hu b h cd. Th b

bd h NWS c upd h umgb

h f ccud. Bu h g cm up m d

m c.

H uu h c h cd d ? I hdgh,

mp h cg chg cpb pdcg upc-

dd cd d h d dc g. O h h hd,

h cg gzg dc bu h pc d pp, h

cuu djud c uc u, hugh h

h u cg.

H cud c b mpd d md m uu h uu? W

c bh b c c m d cmmuch h uc c. Sm d g h

d h (McE . 2005; NWS 2002), uch pdg h

pubc h cc d ud mp pcfc c cd-

, d ug c h cud g ucm.

Fc h h d m b m b -

c. Y c h d S, h mgg k ud cg

cu dcg (NRC 2004), c bg kd d m

h m. Th u c mg mg dcpb bcm pp h c d hch b

c cud h mmzd d duc.

Dp h pbm, c chg h vvd gfc

h 15 c h 1993 d. Fc d g h

b xdd m h d v d h uu. Fc

pcp b u cg 1993,

pcp d m h d. E hugh uu hcm

cg chg m c pc, h hph dd chgc dc hp mgc mg d h

pubc m b dc h h x cd d ccu.

Notes1. Th Spring Hydrologic Outlook pduc dcb h pg dg xpcd

du m. Th u ud b h Nh R Fc

Fbu d Mch d b hp://.ch..g/cc/.

2. Im c d g bd m Flood Warning

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d Flood Statementpduc ud MJu 2008 m h NWS Fc

Oc h Qud d D M. Rc g d m

b .h.g, d hugh h d m c

mgc mg d xp h d hdg. Th chd

h N mc D (ND).

3. Th pcp c h Nh R Fc bd m h NWS Hdmgc dc (H) N

cp Vfc , b .hpc.cp..g/pu/.

4. Th pcp b Nh R Fc

pduc cd cg ug gug d h d

b, b hp://.ch..g/cc/.

5. A h m h d, h NWS cd d g I dfd

b h 1993 d. Th h g bd I c

R cmpd 1958 d h p bg duc

dm dg, g h d cd. B 1958, h hI R gud b d c , I xpcd

d g h h bd 2008.

Reerences CitedBz, D. T., J. B. Hqu, R. J. W, J. Igm, J. J. Fd, d M. S. Lgc.

1997. NWS hdgc pduc d c: Mg m h d h

chc dcd. I Preprints, 13th International Conerence on Interactive

Inormation and Processing Systems or Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology.

Lg Bch, .: Amc Mgc Sc, J63J69.

M, R. R., J., d B. A. Wg. 1995. Sm ggg d d cg: A

php h .S. Ggc Su d h N Wh Sc.

R, V.: .S. Ggc Su Fc Sh FS 209-95. hp://.ug.g/

d/FS_209-95/m-g.hm.

McE, J., J. Igm, Q. Du, T. Adm, d L. Ad, 2005. NOAA

Adcd Hdgc dc Sc: Budg ph b cc

cg. I Bulletin o the American Meteorological Society 86(3), 375385.

N Rch uc (NR). 2004. Assessing the National Streamow Inormation

Program. Whg, D..: N Acdm .

N Wh Sc (NWS). 2002. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services: Water

Prediction or Lie Decisions. S Spg, Md.: NOAA/A 200258.

.h.g///hp/pd/NOAANWS_Bchu.pd.

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82/274

7 Estimating Flood Frequency

David Eash

Soon ater te 2008 d I chd h p, h md bd

hm 100- d 500- d. Wh xc d h m m,

d h d h pp I d 2008?

Th m xp h xm mgud h 2008 d

d h quc h hch h xpcd ccu. Fd quc

xpd . O pbb, xpd pcg, h

d pcfc b qud xcdd g . Thu,

1 pc chc d h 1 100 chc ccug pcu ,d 0.2 pc chc d h 1 500 chc ccug .

Ah cmm xp d quc h m b

d c mgud ( h cuc ). I pcfc

d h 1 100 chc ccug g ( 1 pc chc

d), h h g cuc b d h z 100

. Th d cd h 100- d. L, pcfc d

h 1 500 chc ccug g ( 0.2 pc chc

d), h vg cuc v b d 500 , d cd 500- d. B h df, 500- d g h 100-

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d, hch g h 50- d, d . Lg d ccu

qu h m d, h m chc ccug

pcu , d h g g cuc .

Th m 100- d d 500- d mudd:

pp d b h d hud ccu c 100

500 (Dc 1997). H, h 100- mg d mp

h h gu um m b d h

gv 100- pd c d 100- d v

(Subcmm Hdg 2008). Th uh h h chc h

uuu g d ccu c ccu x , h

, qu .1

Fd-quc m mgg c bd m-

um u mxmum dchgh , h p m h m p p h dug h cu -

pd. Dchg xpd cubc p cd (c); c qu

7.48 g p cd. A cd u mxmum dchg

cc h mj d p mud hc pd. Bu

u mxmum dchg d, m

b .

F m mgg c h uc cd u mxmum

dchg ( 10 ), d gc m d-quc d-chg ug h c chqu ud Bulletin 17B (Igc

Ad mm W D 1982). A dd d c-

cd mgg, Bulletin 17B m d-quc dchg

updd d bcm m c b. F hd gfc

cd b ubz v c dm m mj d-

c ucuk h Cv Rv d Dm, hch gu

b g d d cg duc d dchg

dmm cmpx c mhd mpd md-quc dchg. F uggd v c, g qu

ud m d-quc dchg b g Bulletin 17B d-

quc m mgg uggd h m -

hd chcc (Eh 2001). Thu, d-quc dchg c b

md c.

Wh d d-quc m u bu I 2008 d?

W h 100- 500- d? Th dpd h pcu

c bg cdd. R d m, d ug bum, m c h, d h dg c

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estimating lood reuenc

gfc m h d m c h

g h m v. Cd, xmp, h 2008 d dchg d

cuc mgg h I d d R d

b 7-1 ( p 1 c mgg). Rcuc d

b 7-1 h 2008 d pd g, xcp h xcd-

g h 500- d, dc h cdb mu uc

h m.

Th d R hd xm d 2008 xcdg h 500- d

dchg d Rpd (fgu 7-1) d W. I c, h

g h d R, cuc g m 100 500 . Th

2008 d h g d cd d R mgg d

b 7-1.

Th I R hd d dug 2008 xcdg h 500- ddchg h mgg b h Dm d b h cuc

h I d d R Wp. I I , h cuc

h 2008 d md g b 100 d 500 . Th 2008 d

I h g cd. Th Dm hpd duc

h 2008 d dchg m 51,000 c cdd upm m h dm

h Mg mgg 41,100 c dm m h dm I .

A h c g h I R, cuc h 2008 d

g m 25 500 .Bh h I d d Rpd d xd d ;

h d I 100- 500- d, d d Rpd

g h 500- d. F h d R h d Rpd mgg,

h 500- d dchg md b 122,000 c; h, h 2008

mxmum dchg 140,000 c, bu 15 pc g. Th 2008

mxmum dchg 41,100 c h I R h I m-

gg b h 100- d dchg m 29,000 c d h

500- d m 45,000 c.2

M h 100 cuu m cd h b ccd

h I C d Cd Rpd mgg. Fgu 7-2 d 7-3 dp

h cd d gfc d pk p h cu-

u cd cc. Fgu 7-2 h h h 2008 d Rpd d

m c g h 1961 d, hch h cd-g d

h 158- Cd Rpd d cd. Th hd g d 1993.

Fgu 7-3 h h h p 158 , I h hd h d h

xcdd h 2008 d 1851, 1881, d 1918. H, h hd ccud b h R d Dm cmpd

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a. Unless otherwise noted, average discharge calculatedor all years o continuous streamfow record through 2007.Some years o the annual maximum discharge record werenot included in the calculation o average discharge; seeWater-Resources Data for the United States, Water Year 2007

(U.S. Geological Survey, 2008) or streamfow record used tocalculate average discharge.

b. See Water-Resources Data for the United States, WaterYear 2008 (U.S. Geological Survey, 2009) or 2008 food data.

c. Recurrence intervals determined rom food-requencydischarge estimates computed or streamgages and arereported as a range o years, or as greater than 500 years, toindicate the uncertainty o the estimates. Unless otherwisenoted, recurrence intervals were determined rom weighted-average food-requency estimates computed using bothBulletin 17B analyses and regional equations.

d. Streamfow in the Iowa River, downstream rom CoralvilleReservoir, has been regulated by the Coralville Dam sinceSeptember 17, 1958. This streamgage measures regulatedstreamfow.

e. Recurrence intervals determined rom food-requency

discharges listed in the Flood Insurance Study for JohnsonCounty, Iowa, and Incorporated Areas (FEMA, 2007). TheUSGS uses U.S. Army Corps o Engineers (Corps) computa-tions or food-requency discharge estimates at sites wherea river is regulated. For this book, the Corps recommends

the use o food-requency discharges published in the latestFEMA food insurance study or regulated streamgages on theIowa River.

. Streamfow years 19592007 used to calculate averagedischarge.

g. Streamfow years 19652007 used to calculate averagedischarge.

h. Recurrence intervals determined rom food-requencydischarge estimates calculated rom regional equations only(Eash, 2001).

i. Recurrence intervals determined rom food-requencydischarge estimates computed rom Bulletin 17B analyses only(Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982).

j. Recurrence intervals determined rom food-requency dis-charges listed in the Flood Insurance Study for Louisa County,Iowa, and Incorporated Areas (FEMA, 1991).

TABLE -1 Sy 2008 F Dh, R I, Mx F

Dh h A Mx Dh R S L h

I C R

Iowa R. near Rowan(05449500)

Iowa R. at Marshalltown(05451500)

Iowa R. at Marengo(05453100)

Iowa R. below CoralvilleDam(05453520)d

Iowa R. at Iowa City

(05454500)dIowa R. near Lone Tree

(0545500)d

Cedar R. at Charles City(054500)

Cedar R. at Waverly()

Cedar R. at Janesville(05458500)

Cedar R. at Waterloo(05464000)

Cedar R. at Cedar Rapids(05464500)

Cedar R. near Conesville(05465000)

Iowa R. at Wapello(05465500)d

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

Average

Dischargea

(cs)

,

,

,

,

g

,

,

,

,

,

Date

6/09

6/13

6/12

6/15

6/15

6/15

6/09

6/10

6/10

6/11

6/13

6/15

6/14

Maximum

Dischargeb

(cs)

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

Recurrence-interval

Estimate(years)c

>e

e

e

>h

i

>i

i

>j

Year

1954

1918

2008

2008

1851

1993

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

2008

Maximum

Discharge(cs)

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

,

Annual MaximumDischarge Record

19416, 1982008

1903, 19152, 192930,19332008

1952008

19932008

1851, 1881, 19032008

1952008

194653, 196162, 19652008

20012008

190506, 191521, 19232,193342, 19452008

1929, 1933, 19412008

1851, 19032008

19402008

19032008

Streamgage Name(and number)

Drainage

Area(miles2)

Average

Dischargea(cfs) Date

Maximum

Dischargeb(cfs)

Recurrence-interval

Estimate(years)c Year

Maximum

Discharge(cfs) Annual MaximumDischarge Record

2008 FLOOD MAXIMUM FLOODON RECORD

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FIGURE -1 O U.S. G Sy (USGS) b h

149,500 b () C R h

h C R J 13, 2008. F h y by

hyh , - q y h

( - ). B h C R b 1.6

h C R (h h y ), h

h f h b b h hz, h h

h h b 10 U.S. Hhy

30. Th h j b h x h 140,000 h

C R . Th hh h h

h. Photograph by Scott Strader, USGS.

1958. A fgu 7-3, h duc u mxmum dchg

I C. Cu m d-quc dchg I C

ccu h d c c h R, h 100-

d 500- d dchg much h h b h

bu.

O uc cu m h bh h 1993 d h pp

Mpp R B d h 2008 d I h b dcbd

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100- ( g) . Th ccu h I h 100-

d h p 16 . Wh h m u

c h h , u m c. F d Rpd,

h 1993 d p 71,000 c 25- 50- d (Eh 1997). I

c, I , h 1993 d p 28,200 c dd g

md h b bu 100- 500- d (Schp d H 1995),

bu md b bu 50- 100- d (FEMA 2007) bd

g pd cd. Th chg cuc h 1993 d

I dm h uc h m d h chg

ccu h u mxmum dchg cd bcm g.

Kdg h z d pbb d mg-

g dp d dgg bdg, dm, , d h dp

ucu. Kdg pbb d z g d p ddz c. Em 100- d 500- d cmm

FIGURE -2 Th h h h x h h C R

h C R , h y 1851 19032008. F h

2008 12 , hh b 33,100 b (). Th 100-y 500-y

h , y, 94,100 122,000 2008. Illustration

by the author: Annual maximum discharge data since 1903 rom the streamgage, USGS, http://

nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/ia/nwis/peak, with 1851 estimate collected on-site by local sources; 100-

and 500-year estimates based on 19032008 data; ood stage as determined by National Weather

Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, http://www.weather.gov/oh/ahps/.

185165

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 190 1980 1990 20001851

1903 2008

Discharge(thousandso

cs)

19613

196566.8

Year

19931

2008140

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estimating lood reuenc 7

18510

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 190 1980 1990 2000 20081881

80

0

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Discharge(thou

sandsocs)

Year

1851

1903

FIGURE -3 Th h h h x h h I R

h I Cy h y 1851, 1881, 19032008. F h

2008 22 , hh b 13,800 b (). Th 100-y

500-y h , y, 29,000 45,000 2008.

N h h C R D x h

I Cy h 1958. Illustration by the author: Annual maximum

discharge data since 1903 rom the streamgage, USGS, http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/ia/nwis/

peak, with 1851 and 1881 estimates collected on-site by local sources; 100- and 500-year estimates,

FEMA 2007; ood stage as determined by National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Predic-

tion Service, http://www.weather.gov/oh/ahps/.

ud pc dp ucu m h bd. I dd,

h N Fd Iuc Pgm, dmd b h Fd Emgc

Mgm Agc (FEMA), mg dvpm dp ug

m 100- d 500- d (FEMA 2002).

Fd-quc m c pdc h uu dg ccu.

Fd ccuc m updcb d dm pc (Subcm-

m Hdg 2008). Bg d hpp gu bcu u

cmc . Bg d mm ccu ucc, uc-

c, uuu (Dc 1997).

Th ccuc d b Bulletin 17B d-quc m

dpd ump (Igc Ad mm W

D 1982), m b h p d dchg ccu d b

188151

191842.5

194431.1

19433.8

199328.2

200841.1

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dc uu d dchg. H, p d dchg m

c uu dchg h dcp gfc d, h cm

chg. Bulletin 17B d-quc m um h h d

cd ccu dpc pu d, d h h d pc c

b pd mhmc quc dpd u mxmum

dchg h dm mpd m ppu pb d

dchg. F h , Bulletin 17B d-quc m c

ub uc (Subcmm Hdg 2008).

Ah gfc uc uc h h hc cd

g d. A m mgg I, h cd u mxmum

dchg m g (50 100 ). Wh cm m d, h

cuc 2 10 , uch cd c pd ccu -

m. Bu bcu g d , dcu ccu mh dchg d h ccu bu c 100 500 .

Hc, xg d-quc m dpd g h d h

h b bd h p. Idd, hppd g h 1993 d

(Eh 1997), m h cd m mgg h hd g d

dchg 2008. ud p mgg h uu -

m d-quc m m ccu d b.

Dp uc, d-quc m m h b

p h dg ucu d h gu dp,pcu m cmc ppc. Sud d-quc m

mmz h c dg uddg dp ucu. Fd-

quc m m mp dg h h mp

pbm d uc d d zg.

Acknowledgments

Th uh gu cdg h chc d d cbu h g ddu, h c g mpd h chp: A. A

Bd, J., IIHR-Hdcc & Egg; Sh Jh, .S. Am p

Eg; d Edd Fch d Rb Hm, SGS. Th m h

bd d ccd b h .S. Am p Eg, h N Wh

Sc, h SGS, d d c gc. Appc xpd

p h gc d h d cc, dug d

cd, h md h chp pb.

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Notes1. Bcu h m 100- d d 500- d mud-

d, h Fd Emgc Mgm Agc (FEMA) p c

100- d 1-pc-u-chc d d 500- d 0.2-pc-

u-chc d (FEMA 2002).

2. Th SGS u .S. Am p Eg (p) cmpu d-quc dchg m h gud. Th pp

mgg h I R b h R. F h b, h

p cmmd h u d-quc dchg m pubhd h

FEMA Fd Iuc Sud (FIS) gud mgg h I

R. Fd-quc dchg m m h cu FIS Jh u

(FEMA 2007) ud m h cuc h 2008 d h

I mgg; dchg m cmpud h Jh u FIS d

cud h 2008 d dchg.

Reerences CitedDc, K. 1997. Th 100- d. Tcm, Wh.: .S. Ggc Su Fc

Sh FS-229-96. hp://pub.ug.g//FS-229-96.

Eh, D.A. 1997. Ec h 1993 d h dm d mgud

d quc I. R, V.: .S. Ggc Su cu 1120-K.

hp://pub..ug.g/ugpub/c/c1120K.

. 2001. Techniques or Estimating Flood-Frequency Discharges or Streams in Iowa.

I , I: .S. Ggc Su W-Ruc Ig Rp00-4233. hp://pub..ug.g/ugpub//004233.

Fd Emgc Mgm Agc (FEMA). 1991. Fd Iuc Sud

Lu u, I, d cpd . Whg, D..: Dpm

Hmd Scu.

. 2002. N Fd Iuc gm, pgm dcp. Fd

Iuc d Mg Adm. .m.g/b/Rcd.

d?d=1480.

. 2007. Flood Insurance Study or Johnson County, Iowa, and Incorporated Areas.

Whg, D..: Dpm Hmd Scu.Igc Ad mm W D. 1982. Gud dmg

d quc, Bu 17B. R, V.: Hdg Subcmm.

hp://.ug.g//bu17b/bu_17B.hm.

Schp, B. D., d . A. H. 1995. D dg h h pp

Mpp R B, 1993Fd Ju 29Spmb 18, 1993, I

d c, I. I , I: .S. Ggc Su Hdgc

Ig A 735-B. hp://pub..ug.g/ugpub/h/h735B.

Subcmm Hdg. 2008. Bu 17-B gud dmg

d quc, qu d qu. W Im d

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7 rising rivers, spreading waters

gm, Ad mm W Im, Hdgc Fquc

A W Gup. hp://c.g/hdg/Fquc/B17bFAQ.hm.

.S. Ggc Su (SGS). 2008. W-uc d h d S,

W Y 2007. .S. Ggc Su W-D Rp WDR-S-2007, I

. hp://d..ug.g/2007/ch.jp.

. 2009. W-uc d h d S, W Y 2008. .S.Ggc Su W-D Rp WDR-S-2008, I . hp://d..

ug.g/2008/ch.jp.

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rising rivers, spreading waters 7

seCtion ii

Why Here, Why Now?

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ltoU loos are u pc, hum h

cm m h h d. Id, c h cd,

pp h d xp dg d xm u

h . Fd mh dd dug, h cmm hm,

pp d g m ud h d. Cd Nh d

h A, h d h dg cg qu m h

c h h, hch Gd hp h hum;

cdd h bgg h Bb h xh chp G.Th Bb pc Ggmh, mg h -

fc, cud m : Ggmh d h gd p

d b dg, bu h u b budg g . Ad

gm Sum c b cd bu h gd dc

d humd d; h h Ah bud g b, m

ppp cfc, d u ppu h h.

Td k m cc xp dg. W k gc qu-

uch h h p pducd cuc d.

A

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7 w ere, w now?

W qu hh h mdfd h h uc d mph

uc c mbc h bgg u d.

W g h dp d h bud m x. Php,

ju c m, u md d g d u bc

hp h h h. Ju Nh, Ggmh, d Ah

mu h d, d hh bg cd u bc

h h h d h c.

Sc II cd h cu h 2008 d d dg m

g. Ackdgg h v d d d h d cu,

h c h m b dg xcb , c

h vum d x. Th c bg h Mch Buk cd-

h mdu chg h ugh h d, h I

h-cu m gcuu dcp pducd h m mgd dcp h. h 1830, I

dmd b g p, hch cd k ggc pg h

d up, pd, d d mdu qu mu. Suc

h dcp ud h dppd , d d ud

h b d m h d. Bu h hdg

h cu gcuu dcp, hch mgd hd pd

pb d dmd b u cp h c h d hp

mg mh h . Th kg dcp g, fc dg m, gd c dg

ch, d ug ccd c d m h d

h cd h m dg h mgfd z d x.

I chp 9, W xp h pd u h b

xcbd ub , h m pc d pd.

Th bcu ccp h b cd h mpmb uc (d,

d, , c.), d h h b cmpcd h h bb

p. H, ccud h h ub g pducgfc h d m c m, h cbu h g

2008 d pbb mm mp bcu I m pp

ub d.

M hv dd h h Cv Rv dd b c

h dg I d . Jh dcb h

Dm d gv dd umm h Cp Eg p

h chp 10. Th p fm b gu chd-

u h pcf d hughu h

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7 w ere, w now?

Note1. N h h x chp 7 h h mxmum

51,000 c, fgu dd h Mg mgg upm m h .

h hgh bcu cud m m

m b Mg d h .

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8 The Hydrologic Footprint o Annual Crops

Michael Burkart

Given te Uestion gcuu p cbu h 2008 d,

mgh h ud h hppd hd h m h p c-

cud b h 1830, h g dmd h dcp.

Wud xm dg hv ccud h, d , ud h

d h mbd h d? Wud h x d mgud h

b g?

Wh I d c dd p cu, d pdg

I gcuu m ud hv dd g chc.I d mg h m mgd dcp h d.

Th g du gc ch , cm d gg c,

d cuu d cm g xp h uc. Th h

d puhd h pcm p p c h u

cp. Th hdgc p cp gcuu h b d d

ub xpdd p h gmc d gg chg

h dcp. Th chg h mc md g

h d, ccd h m h d, xpdd h um-b m, d cd h c mg hugh m.

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7 w ere, w now?

Wh gcuu d m quc d c pb,

I c m h b, cg h h xm

m dg h mgfd z d x. N chg h hd

m dmc c u d d hdg h h cd h

gcuu.

B xmg h chg, I hdg b h

1830 h Eup Amc d mg h kg

dcp. P h m, p p cmmu, pm g

p, cd m I d gd h cump d

hugh h dcp. Th p cmpx b d, dv g

d b (bd-d g p) g quc m dm

h d mpu ub, mxmzg cump

hughu h . qu, cpd h p. If b h p z md, d u gd

dug xm pd m. I much I, u

m p dug h pd fd k, ph, d mh h

uppd hgh -cumpv p quc vg. Exm

d pbb .

P m h h -ud d dd m

phm m h dug d g m.

Ru h p h m dchg h h d uc dc b bd dug d mmd g m.

m c dug g pd b pd

bcu gud cu h m, pvdg h

cd b. I dcp h g cpc uc

u, u b b m dchg.

Sc h 1830, I p g h mc b

pcd h u cp. P, , d d hv b

mvd dd h b 2002, 62 pc I d uc mgd g c d b (.S. Dpm m-

mc 2004). Wh h p g dd much

cp h cm, h xv u cp m

cg I h b gd c mm m h

dcp. Au cp h cbu g m dchg

bcu h d cum dug h u mh h

; hu much I pcp d hu g p.1

A cmp h g mh pcp I d h ggpd c d b h h h cp cp pcp

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te drologic ootprint o annual crops 7

u f mh ch (fgu 8-1). I uch dcp, bh u d

b cbu m c (Schg d Lb 2003), bcu

h f u bd b -cumg p b

md-Spmb d md-M.

A umb c cbu d ug hdgc pbm.

L d u mpdd b mm du m b, d c

du pd p h cmpd p g.

M I u pd, k, d, dp, c., hv b

dd c d u cp pduc. Th m h p-

b g much d u h h dcp.

Th pg h p dcd h mu -g

gc m, uh ducg h g cpc. E I

ud hck cum gc ch p h hd md ud

FIGURE 8-1 A hy (h) V M h R R -

h h . Fy- h

h h 50 h yb h . Th

yb by hz x h

h h , h h -

h x x, h b x

by h . Illustration by the author, based on data rom Hillaker 2009.

Syb Gh P

C Gh P

A D, Mx L A Ix5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

Precipitation(inc

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