15 21 july,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine
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Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news for readers. Share your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine contact [email protected] , [email protected] For Advertisement & Specs [email protected]TRANSCRIPT
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Vol 5.Issue XIII
15-21 July 2015,2015
Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter
Page 2 of 95
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15-21 July 2015 Unedited version
Iran Nuclear Deal Agreement Won't Affect India's Basmati Rice Exports, Say Analysts
Jul 15, 2015
The lifting of sanctions on Iran by the U.S. and the E.U will not affect India's basmati rice exports though
exports of other commodities like soymeal, sugar and corn are likely to be affected, the Economic Times
quoted analysts as saying.
They noted that with the lifting of sanctions, Iran will be able be able to buy soymeal, sugar and corn at
much cheaper rates from South American countries like Brazil, Argentina and the U.S.
A former President of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA) noted that basmati rice exports to
Iran may now increase by about 10% as Iranian traders were limiting their purchases and were
Page 3 of 95
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preferring other routes, but now they are free to work directly with Indian exporters. He added that Iran
may import around one million tons of Indian basmati rice.
India exported around 900,000 tons of basmati rice to Iran in FY 2014-15 (April - March) compared to
around 1.44 million tons in FY 2013-14 due to a temporary ban imposed by the Middle East nation citing
surplus stocks.
With sanctions, Iran has been importing basmati rice, sugar, soymeal and corn from India since 2011
through a rupee account held with the UCO bank at a premium to international prices.
Log inAsia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today
Jul 15, 2015
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Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $45 per ton premium on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton,
about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $365 - $375 per ton, about a $40 per ton premium on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about
$20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Page 4 of 95
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Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $395 - $405 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at
around $370- $380 per ton, about a $45 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around
$415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100%
broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 -
$305 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 -
$295 per ton.
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Italian Risotto Losing Flavor in U.K.
Jul 15, 2015
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Some traders in the U.K. have been selling the Italian ribe rice variety labelled and marketed as arborio,
which is much more expensive and is the most preferred for cooking risotto, according to Daily Mail.
When one of the Italy's biggest rice supplier Riso Gallo sampled arborio packets on sale in European
supermarkets after some concerns were raised, it found that some supermarkets in the U.K. have been
selling ribe labelled as arborio. ‘It’s difficult to tell the difference – that is why it is easy for fraudsters to
substitute one variety for another,’ Daily Mail quoted the Managing Director of Riso Gallo.
The U.K. Rice Association is now reportedly considering introducing tests for risotto rice. ‘We test
basmati and we could do it for arborio. The market price has gone up and some unscrupulous person
might be tempted to substitute arborio with a cheaper rice,’ the Association's Secretary was quoted. The
Food Standards Agency (FSA) also welcomed any information regarding the fraudulent substitution or
mislabelling of rice.
Ribe is quite cheaper compared to arborio and is usually used in Italy for cheap suppers. If used for
cooking risotto, ribe does not produce the creamy texture as produced by arborio as it absorbs more
water unlike arborio and results into a glutinous mass.
Page 6 of 95
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While ribe is currently quoted in Italy at around 320-330 euros (about $ 352-363) per ton, arborio is
quoted at around 870-900 euros (about $958-991) per ton. In the U.K., while ribe costs £550 (around
$859) per ton , arborio costs about £1,433 (around $2,239) per ton.
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Italy to Host Second International Conference on Systems of Organic Rice Production
Jul 15, 2015
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Italy will host the International Conference on Systems of Organic Rice Production (ORP) from
September 1 - 4 2015 in Milan and Pavia, according to www.orpconference.eu.
The conference will begin at the Milan Rice Expo on September 1 in the Biodiversity Park Auditorium “Il
centro della terra” (The Earth center) and it will be continued in Lomellina, in azienda Erbatici of
Mezzana Bigli, (Pavia) until September 4.
Rice producers, researchers, students, teachers, organizations, territorial entities and local authorities
can participate in the conference, which aims to stimulate exchange of information and knowledge
between researchers, producers and numerous components within the world of organic rice culture.
The conference will be opened by the Italian Minister of Agriculture, Maurizio Martina and it will
presided by personalities such as Denis Lairon (Director of Research INSERM - INRA France), Claudia
Sorlini (President of the Scientific Committee, the Universities for Expo 2015) and Paolo Carnemolla
(President of Federbio).
The Scientific Committee will comprise of - Jean-Marc Barbier, Sylvestre Delmotte and Jean-Claude
Mouret, agronomists of Inra, in Montpellier, France; Stefano Bocchi, agronomist of Milan University,
Italy; Manuel Aguilar, agronomist of Agronomic Research Unit in Sevilla, Spain and barry Mamadou Billo,
geneticist of Agronomic Research Unit of Guinea.
Myanmar Rice Exports May Decline in 2015 Despite Weakening Currency, Says Commerce Ministry
Official
Jul 15, 2015
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The Director of the Trade Promotion Department under the Ministry if Commerce expressed concern
that rice exports by the country may not increase significantly this year as well as the next few years
despite weakening kyat against the dollar, according to Myanmar Times.
Myanmar kyat has depreciated about 18% from around 1,025 per USD in the beginning of this year to
around 1,210 per USD, according to the data from the Myanmar Central Bank. During the period, export
prices of 5% broken rice have increased slightly to around $420 per ton from around $415 per ton.
He told reporters that normally, increasing exports with a weakening currency is said to be easy, but
promoting exports and developing ties with new markets would take time for Myanmar. He noted that
several European countries are keen on signing trade deals with Myanmar after it has been given access
to the EU's Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) tariff scheme in 2013 under which imports from
the Asian least developed countries (LDCs) are allowed at zero percent duty. However, it is challenge for
exporters to meet the European standards.
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The official said that the country lost some rice export demand after the Chinese authorities cracked
down informal border rice trade with Myanmar in August 2014. Due to the difficulties faced in the
overseas export market, rice exports are likely to fall this year, he noted.
Myanmar's rice exports have been increasing consistently for the last three years, according to the
Ministry of Commerce. Myanmar exported about 1.7 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15 (April - March),
about 1.2 million tons of rice in FY 2013-14 and about 1.4 million tons of rice in FY 2012-13.
In May this year, the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) has forecasted that the country would export
about 2 million tons of rice in the fiscal year 2015-16 due to increasing demand from China, Africa and
Europe.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Unchanged Overnight as Bearish Wheat and Beans
Damper Recent Rally
Jul 15, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading unchanged at $11.080 per cwt
(about $244 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading lower this
morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.9% lower, wheat is listed about 1.1% lower and
corn is currently noted about 0.1% higher.
U.S. stocks traded in a range on Wednesday as investors digested data, earnings reports and the
beginning of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's two-day testimony to Congress. The Dow Jones industrial average
and S&P 500 struggled to hold slight gains, while the Nasdaq traded mildly higher. In prepared remarks
released at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Fed chair said the central bank is on pace to raise rates this year if the
Page 10 of 95
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economy evolves as expected. She said unemployment should decline but inflation remains below the
Fed's target. Greece and China topped the list of uncertainties in Yellen's testimony. Yellen appears
before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. ET to deliver her testimony on the
economy. Wednesday's data was more encouraging than Tuesday's disappointing retail sales report.
U.S. June producer price data showed an increase of 0.4% in June, while the July Empire State Survey
came in at 3.9, topping June's negative 2 read. Overseas, China second-quarter GDP came in at 7%,
beating expectations. However, the volatile mainland stocks reversed a recent recovery as the Shanghai
Composite plunged 3%.Greece is also in focus as the parliament faces a midnight deadline to pass
reforms needed to secure a bailout deal from its creditors. After defaulting on a loan to the International
Monetary Fund at the beginning of July, Athens has another payment due Monday. Gold is currently
trading about 0.6% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently
trading about 0.4% higher at 8:45am Chicago time.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Finish the Day Little Changed despite Big Swings
during Midday Trading in Neighboring Grain Pits
Jul 15, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 2 cents per cwt (about $0.44 per ton) lower at
$11.060 per cwt (about $244 per ton). The other grains finished the day with mixed results; Soybeans
closed about 0.8% lower at $10.1675 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.6% lower at $5.6750 per
bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.5% higher at $4.4075 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded mildly higher on Wednesday as investors eyed data, earnings reports and the
beginning of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's two-day testimony to Congress. The Dow Jones industrial average
and S&P 500 attempted to hold slight gains, while the Nasdaq traded higher. Federal Reserve Chair
Page 11 of 95
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Yellen said Wednesday "a decision on our part to raise rates will say, 'no the economy doesn't stink.'
We're close to where we want to be and we now think the economy can not only tolerate but needs
higher rates. So there have been headwinds and we've tried to use monetary policy to overcome them."
Yellen appeared before the House Financial Services Committee to deliver her testimony on the
economy. The following question-and-answer session focused more on political than fiscal issues. In
prepared remarks, Yellen said the central bank is on pace to raise rates this year if the economy evolves
as expected. She said unemployment should decline but inflation remains below the Fed's target.
Greece and China topped the list of uncertainties in Yellen's testimony. Wednesday's data was more
encouraging than Tuesday's disappointing retail sales report. U.S. June producer price data showed an
increase of 0.4% in June, while the July Empire State Survey came in at 3.9, topping June's negative 2
read. Greece is also in focus as the parliament faces a midnight deadline to pass reforms needed to
secure a bailout deal from its creditors. After defaulting on a loan to the International Monetary Fund at
the beginning of July, Athens has another payment due Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
traded up 9 points, or 0.05%, at 18,062. The S&P 500 traded up 1 point, or 0.06%, at 2,110, with
financials leading four sectors higher and telecommunications the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq traded
up 6 points, or 0.12%, at 5,111. Gold is trading about 0.5% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2.6%
lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.5% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Tuesday, there were 742 contracts traded, down from 881 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest –
the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 227 contracts to 8,968.
Thailand Expands Insurance Scheme to 320,000 Hectares of Main Rice Crop to Support Drought-Hit
Farmers
Jul 15, 2015
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The Thai Insurance Commission has decided to increase this year's target for rice insurance policies for
in-season paddy fields by about 500,000 rai (around 80,000 hectares) to around 2 million rai (around
320,000 hectares) in order to support farmers affected by drought, according to local sources.
The Secretary-General of the Commission told local sources that as of July 8, sales of insurance policies
for in-season paddy fields have reached around 1.33 million rai (around 212,800 hectares) or about
89.1% of the old target of 1.5 million rai (around 240,000 hectares).
He noted that the decision to increase the target has been taken after discussions with the Finance
Ministry, the Agriculture Ministry, the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), and
the Thai General Insurance Association (TGIA).
The Secretary-General noted that the policy would cover damages from natural disasters as well as pests
and epidemics.
Currently seven insurers are offering main rice-crop insurance through the Bank for Agriculture and
Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) between May 6 - August 14, 2015. In the south, the insurance will be
reportedly offered until December 11, 2015.
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Nearly 66 provinces in Central Thailand are battling drought and the government has government has
advised rice farmers to delay planting for the 2015 main rice crop until August, when it is expecting rains
to resume. The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has estimated that the output from 2015 main
rice crop, which contributes to around 70% of the country's total rice output, to decline about 14% to
around 23.3 million tons from around 27.1 million tons last year.
USDA Forecasts 2015 Global Rice Trade at Record 43.7 Million Tons
Jul 15, 2015
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In its July Rice Outlook report, USDA has forecasted 2015 global rice trade at around 43.7 million tons,
slightly up from an estimated 43.4 million tons in 2014, due to larger exports from Myanmar, Cambodia,
India, Pakistan, Vietnam and the U.S.
On the exports side, USDA increased projections for India, Myanmar and Pakistan, while it lowered
prospects for Thailand rice exports based on the January-May shipment pace.
On the imports side, USDA lowered prospects for South Africa, while it raised its projections for the U.S.
based on a stronger pace.
USDA estimates global rice trade in 2016 at around 42.1 million tons and the projected decline is
attributed to weaker shipments from India and Australia and weaker demand from Southeast Asia and
Sub-Saharan Africa.
It lowered export prospects for Thailand and Australia, and raised forecasts for Vietnam, Myanmar and
Pakistan. It lowered import forecasts for South Africa, and raised prospects for the U.S. rice imports.
USDA Forecasts 2015-16 Global Milled Rice Production at Record 480.3 Million Tons on Higher Acreage
Jul 15, 2015
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In its July Rice Outlook report, USDA forecasts 2015-16 global milled rice production at around 480.3
million tons, slightly up from an estimated 476.2 million tons in 2014-15 due to an expected increase in
rice acreage. However, USDA's projection is down from last month's projection of around 478.9 million
tons
According to USDA, 2014-15 global rice production is slightly lower than that in 2013-14. Expected
increases in Laos, Brazil, Argentina and Chile are offset by an expected decline in production in the
Philippines.
USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice acreage at a record 161.6 million hectares, up about 1% from an
estimated 160.2 million hectares in 2014-15 and most of the increase in acreage is expected in
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Bangladesh, India, Thailand and the Philippines. USDA forecasts the average global yield at 4.43 tons per
hectare (on rough rice basis), unchanged from 2014-15.
In July, USDA lowered production prospects for Thailand, Australia, Madagascar, Afghanistan, North
Korea and the U.S. due to persisting drought conditions. It raised production forecasts for Laos and Iran
based on a expectations of higher yield and larger area.
USDA estimates 2015-16 global rice consumption and residual use at around 488.8 million tons, up
about 1% from last year's 483.96 million tons. China accounts for the bulk of the projected increase in
global consumption during the year, according to USDA. Rice consumption is expected to reach record-
high in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
The U.S. agency estimates 2015-16 global rice ending stocks to decline by about 8.5% y/y to around
90.5 million tons. USDA estimates lower ending stocks in India, Pakistan, Thailand, the Philippines and
the U.S. It estimates 2014-15 global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.5%, down from last year's 20.4%.
Iran Nuclear Deal Agreement Won't Affect India's Basmati Rice Exports, Say Analysts
Jul 15, 2015
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The lifting of sanctions on Iran by the U.S. and the E.U will not affect India's basmati rice exports though
exports of other commodities like soymeal, sugar and corn are likely to be affected, the Economic Times
quoted analysts as saying.
They noted that with the lifting of sanctions, Iran will be able be able to buy soymeal, sugar and corn at
much cheaper rates from South American countries like Brazil, Argentina and the U.S.
A former President of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA) noted that basmati rice exports to
Iran may now increase by about 10% as Iranian traders were limiting their purchases and were
preferring other routes, but now they are free to work directly with Indian exporters. He added that Iran
may import around one million tons of Indian basmati rice.
India exported around 900,000 tons of basmati rice to Iran in FY 2014-15 (April - March) compared to
around 1.44 million tons in FY 2013-14 due to a temporary ban imposed by the Middle East nation citing
surplus stocks.
With sanctions, Iran has been importing basmati rice, sugar, soymeal and corn from India since 2011
through a rupee account held with the UCO bank at a premium to international prices.
Page 18 of 95
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Log inAsia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today
Jul 15, 2015
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Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $45 per ton premium on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton,
about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $365 - $375 per ton, about a $40 per ton premium on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about
$20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $395 - $405 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at
around $370- $380 per ton, about a $45 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around
$415 - $425 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100%
broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 -
Page 19 of 95
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$305 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 -
$295 per ton.
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Italian Risotto Losing Flavor in U.K.
Jul 15, 2015
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Some traders in the U.K. have been selling the Italian ribe rice variety labelled and marketed as arborio,
which is much more expensive and is the most preferred for cooking risotto, according to Daily Mail.
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When one of the Italy's biggest rice supplier Riso Gallo sampled arborio packets on sale in European
supermarkets after some concerns were raised, it found that some supermarkets in the U.K. have been
selling ribe labelled as arborio. ‘It’s difficult to tell the difference – that is why it is easy for fraudsters to
substitute one variety for another,’ Daily Mail quoted the Managing Director of Riso Gallo.
The U.K. Rice Association is now reportedly considering introducing tests for risotto rice. ‘We test
basmati and we could do it for arborio. The market price has gone up and some unscrupulous person
might be tempted to substitute arborio with a cheaper rice,’ the Association's Secretary was quoted. The
Food Standards Agency (FSA) also welcomed any information regarding the fraudulent substitution or
mislabelling of rice.
Ribe is quite cheaper compared to arborio and is usually used in Italy for cheap suppers. If used for
cooking risotto, ribe does not produce the creamy texture as produced by arborio as it absorbs more
water unlike arborio and results into a glutinous mass.
While ribe is currently quoted in Italy at around 320-330 euros (about $ 352-363) per ton, arborio is
quoted at around 870-900 euros (about $958-991) per ton. In the U.K., while ribe costs £550 (around
$859) per ton , arborio costs about £1,433 (around $2,239) per ton.
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Italy to Host Second International Conference on Systems of Organic Rice Production
Jul 15, 2015
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Oryza.com -
Italy will host the International Conference on Systems of Organic Rice Production (ORP) from
September 1 - 4 2015 in Milan and Pavia, according to www.orpconference.eu.
The conference will begin at the Milan Rice Expo on September 1 in the Biodiversity Park Auditorium “Il
centro della terra” (The Earth center) and it will be continued in Lomellina, in azienda Erbatici of
Mezzana Bigli, (Pavia) until September 4.
Rice producers, researchers, students, teachers, organizations, territorial entities and local authorities
can participate in the conference, which aims to stimulate exchange of information and knowledge
between researchers, producers and numerous components within the world of organic rice culture.
The conference will be opened by the Italian Minister of Agriculture, Maurizio Martina and it will
presided by personalities such as Denis Lairon (Director of Research INSERM - INRA France), Claudia
Sorlini (President of the Scientific Committee, the Universities for Expo 2015) and Paolo Carnemolla
(President of Federbio).
The Scientific Committee will comprise of - Jean-Marc Barbier, Sylvestre Delmotte and Jean-Claude
Mouret, agronomists of Inra, in Montpellier, France; Stefano Bocchi, agronomist of Milan University,
Page 22 of 95
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Italy; Manuel Aguilar, agronomist of Agronomic Research Unit in Sevilla, Spain and barry Mamadou Billo,
geneticist of Agronomic Research Unit of Guinea.
Myanmar Rice Exports May Decline in 2015 Despite Weakening Currency, Says Commerce Ministry
Official
Jul 15, 2015
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The Director of the Trade Promotion Department under the Ministry if Commerce expressed concern
that rice exports by the country may not increase significantly this year as well as the next few years
despite weakening kyat against the dollar, according to Myanmar Times.
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Myanmar kyat has depreciated about 18% from around 1,025 per USD in the beginning of this year to
around 1,210 per USD, according to the data from the Myanmar Central Bank. During the period, export
prices of 5% broken rice have increased slightly to around $420 per ton from around $415 per ton.
He told reporters that normally, increasing exports with a weakening currency is said to be easy, but
promoting exports and developing ties with new markets would take time for Myanmar. He noted that
several European countries are keen on signing trade deals with Myanmar after it has been given access
to the EU's Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) tariff scheme in 2013 under which imports from
the Asian least developed countries (LDCs) are allowed at zero percent duty. However, it is challenge for
exporters to meet the European standards.
The official said that the country lost some rice export demand after the Chinese authorities cracked
down informal border rice trade with Myanmar in August 2014. Due to the difficulties faced in the
overseas export market, rice exports are likely to fall this year, he noted.
Myanmar's rice exports have been increasing consistently for the last three years, according to the
Ministry of Commerce. Myanmar exported about 1.7 million tons of rice in FY 2014-15 (April - March),
about 1.2 million tons of rice in FY 2013-14 and about 1.4 million tons of rice in FY 2012-13.
In May this year, the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) has forecasted that the country would export
about 2 million tons of rice in the fiscal year 2015-16 due to increasing demand from China, Africa and
Europe.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Unchanged Overnight as Bearish Wheat and Beans
Damper Recent Rally
Jul 15, 2015
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Oryza.com -
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading unchanged at $11.080 per cwt
(about $244 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading lower this
morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.9% lower, wheat is listed about 1.1% lower and
corn is currently noted about 0.1% higher.
U.S. stocks traded in a range on Wednesday as investors digested data, earnings reports and the
beginning of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's two-day testimony to Congress. The Dow Jones industrial average
and S&P 500 struggled to hold slight gains, while the Nasdaq traded mildly higher. In prepared remarks
released at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Fed chair said the central bank is on pace to raise rates this year if the
economy evolves as expected. She said unemployment should decline but inflation remains below the
Fed's target. Greece and China topped the list of uncertainties in Yellen's testimony. Yellen appears
before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. ET to deliver her testimony on the
economy. Wednesday's data was more encouraging than Tuesday's disappointing retail sales report.
U.S. June producer price data showed an increase of 0.4% in June, while the July Empire State Survey
came in at 3.9, topping June's negative 2 read. Overseas, China second-quarter GDP came in at 7%,
beating expectations. However, the volatile mainland stocks reversed a recent recovery as the Shanghai
Composite plunged 3%.Greece is also in focus as the parliament faces a midnight deadline to pass
reforms needed to secure a bailout deal from its creditors. After defaulting on a loan to the International
Monetary Fund at the beginning of July, Athens has another payment due Monday. Gold is currently
trading about 0.6% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently
trading about 0.4% higher at 8:45am Chicago time.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Finish the Day Little Changed despite Big Swings
during Midday Trading in Neighboring Grain Pits
Jul 15, 2015
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Oryza.com -
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 2 cents per cwt (about $0.44 per ton) lower at
$11.060 per cwt (about $244 per ton). The other grains finished the day with mixed results; Soybeans
closed about 0.8% lower at $10.1675 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.6% lower at $5.6750 per
bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.5% higher at $4.4075 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded mildly higher on Wednesday as investors eyed data, earnings reports and the
beginning of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's two-day testimony to Congress. The Dow Jones industrial average
and S&P 500 attempted to hold slight gains, while the Nasdaq traded higher. Federal Reserve Chair
Yellen said Wednesday "a decision on our part to raise rates will say, 'no the economy doesn't stink.'
We're close to where we want to be and we now think the economy can not only tolerate but needs
higher rates. So there have been headwinds and we've tried to use monetary policy to overcome them."
Yellen appeared before the House Financial Services Committee to deliver her testimony on the
economy. The following question-and-answer session focused more on political than fiscal issues. In
prepared remarks, Yellen said the central bank is on pace to raise rates this year if the economy evolves
as expected. She said unemployment should decline but inflation remains below the Fed's target.
Greece and China topped the list of uncertainties in Yellen's testimony. Wednesday's data was more
encouraging than Tuesday's disappointing retail sales report. U.S. June producer price data showed an
increase of 0.4% in June, while the July Empire State Survey came in at 3.9, topping June's negative 2
read. Greece is also in focus as the parliament faces a midnight deadline to pass reforms needed to
secure a bailout deal from its creditors. After defaulting on a loan to the International Monetary Fund at
the beginning of July, Athens has another payment due Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
traded up 9 points, or 0.05%, at 18,062. The S&P 500 traded up 1 point, or 0.06%, at 2,110, with
financials leading four sectors higher and telecommunications the greatest laggard. The Nasdaq traded
up 6 points, or 0.12%, at 5,111. Gold is trading about 0.5% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2.6%
lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.5% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Tuesday, there were 742 contracts traded, down from 881 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest –
the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 227 contracts to 8,968.
Thailand Expands Insurance Scheme to 320,000 Hectares of Main Rice Crop to Support Drought-Hit
Farmers
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Jul 15, 2015
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The Thai Insurance Commission has decided to increase this year's target for rice insurance policies for
in-season paddy fields by about 500,000 rai (around 80,000 hectares) to around 2 million rai (around
320,000 hectares) in order to support farmers affected by drought, according to local sources.
The Secretary-General of the Commission told local sources that as of July 8, sales of insurance policies
for in-season paddy fields have reached around 1.33 million rai (around 212,800 hectares) or about
89.1% of the old target of 1.5 million rai (around 240,000 hectares).
He noted that the decision to increase the target has been taken after discussions with the Finance
Ministry, the Agriculture Ministry, the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), and
the Thai General Insurance Association (TGIA).
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The Secretary-General noted that the policy would cover damages from natural disasters as well as pests
and epidemics.
Currently seven insurers are offering main rice-crop insurance through the Bank for Agriculture and
Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) between May 6 - August 14, 2015. In the south, the insurance will be
reportedly offered until December 11, 2015.
Nearly 66 provinces in Central Thailand are battling drought and the government has government has
advised rice farmers to delay planting for the 2015 main rice crop until August, when it is expecting rains
to resume. The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has estimated that the output from 2015 main
rice crop, which contributes to around 70% of the country's total rice output, to decline about 14% to
around 23.3 million tons from around 27.1 million tons last year.
USDA Forecasts 2015 Global Rice Trade at Record 43.7 Million Tons
Jul 15, 2015
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In its July Rice Outlook report, USDA has forecasted 2015 global rice trade at around 43.7 million tons,
slightly up from an estimated 43.4 million tons in 2014, due to larger exports from Myanmar, Cambodia,
India, Pakistan, Vietnam and the U.S.
On the exports side, USDA increased projections for India, Myanmar and Pakistan, while it lowered
prospects for Thailand rice exports based on the January-May shipment pace.
On the imports side, USDA lowered prospects for South Africa, while it raised its projections for the U.S.
based on a stronger pace.
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USDA estimates global rice trade in 2016 at around 42.1 million tons and the projected decline is
attributed to weaker shipments from India and Australia and weaker demand from Southeast Asia and
Sub-Saharan Africa.
It lowered export prospects for Thailand and Australia, and raised forecasts for Vietnam, Myanmar and
Pakistan. It lowered import forecasts for South Africa, and raised prospects for the U.S. rice imports.
USDA Forecasts 2015-16 Global Milled Rice Production at Record 480.3 Million Tons on Higher Acreage
Jul 15, 2015
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In its July Rice Outlook report, USDA forecasts 2015-16 global milled rice production at around 480.3
million tons, slightly up from an estimated 476.2 million tons in 2014-15 due to an expected increase in
rice acreage. However, USDA's projection is down from last month's projection of around 478.9 million
tons
According to USDA, 2014-15 global rice production is slightly lower than that in 2013-14. Expected
increases in Laos, Brazil, Argentina and Chile are offset by an expected decline in production in the
Philippines.
USDA forecasts 2015-16 global rice acreage at a record 161.6 million hectares, up about 1% from an
estimated 160.2 million hectares in 2014-15 and most of the increase in acreage is expected in
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Bangladesh, India, Thailand and the Philippines. USDA forecasts the average global yield at 4.43 tons per
hectare (on rough rice basis), unchanged from 2014-15.
In July, USDA lowered production prospects for Thailand, Australia, Madagascar, Afghanistan, North
Korea and the U.S. due to persisting drought conditions. It raised production forecasts for Laos and Iran
based on a expectations of higher yield and larger area.
USDA estimates 2015-16 global rice consumption and residual use at around 488.8 million tons, up
about 1% from last year's 483.96 million tons. China accounts for the bulk of the projected increase in
global consumption during the year, according to USDA. Rice consumption is expected to reach record-
high in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
The U.S. agency estimates 2015-16 global rice ending stocks to decline by about 8.5% y/y to around
90.5 million tons. USDA estimates lower ending stocks in India, Pakistan, Thailand, the Philippines and
the U.S. It estimates 2014-15 global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.5%, down from last year's 20.4%.
Guyana Millers, Exporters Seek Assurance on Revised Rice Export Deal with Venezuela
Jul 16, 2015
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Guyana's millers and exporters are worried they may lose an important rice market, Venezuela. Under
the two nation’s PetroCaribe deal, Guyana sells rice to Venezuela in exchange for oil. However, the
existing deal will expire in November 2015, and Venezuela has indicated it will not renew the deal after
its expiration.
The Agriculture Minister reportedly assured the Guyana Millers and Exporters Marketing Association
(GMEMA) that exports to Venezuela under the existing agreement will not be halted before its
expiration in November this year.
The GMEMA raised concerns after shipments to Venezuela have been stopped recently. The Minister
told them that the Venezuelan authorities had stopped shipments due to some scheduling problems in
receiving the stock. He said they are working towards adjusting to the agreed schedule.
As the Minister disclosed that Venezuelan authorities hinted at striking a revised rice export deal with
Guyana for 2016, the GMEMA seeks to travel to Venezuela along with some government officials to
discuss the possibility of striking a revised deal for the continuance of shipments. The Chairman of the
GMEMA noted that their organization would work closely with the two governments to facilitate a
possible deal.
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Under the existing oil for rice agreement, Guyana is expected to sell about 210,000 tons of paddy and
polished rice annually to Venezuela. If the government cannot strike a new deal with Venezuela, it may
be under pressure to find new markets for its rice.
Indian Scientists Develop Low Arsenic Absorbing Rice Variety 'Muktashri'
Jul 16, 2015
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Researchers from the Lucknow-based Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)-National
Botanical Research Institute (CSIR-NBRI) have developed a new rice variety that minimizes absorption of
arsenic from the soil, according to the Times of India.
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The NBRI Director told reporters that rice variety CN-1794-2-CSIR-NBRI/Muktashri has been developed
after seven years of research and currently it is under trials. He noted that the variety minimizes
absorption of arsenic to a large extent even when grown in areas with high arsenic levels in soil. The
variety accumulates arsenic less than the maximum permissible daily intake and also provides high
yields, he added.
Rice growing areas in the Indo-Gangetic plains are said to have higher arsenic levels, which are feared to
cause serious health concerns.
The official noted that the government of India's eastern state West Bengal would release the Muktashri
rice variety shortly.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Fall as Morning Rally Turns to Afternoon Selloff for
US Grains
Jul 16, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 10 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $10.960
per cwt (about $242 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly lower following a mid-day
reversal; Soybeans closed about 0.5% lower at $10.1100 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.8% lower at
$5.6225 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.2% higher at $4.4100 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded higher on Thursday as investors focused on earnings beats amid progress towards
near-term resolution in the Greek debt crisis. The Philadelphia Fed survey came in at 5.7 for July, off
June's 15.2 read, following a weaker Empire State read and a disappointing June retail sales report. In
more positive news, the NAHB survey showed U.S. homebuilder sentiment hit a 10-year high. U.S.
weekly jobless claims came in at 281,000, better than the 285,000 estimate. Nervousness ahead of the
Page 35 of 95
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Greek vote pressured U.S. equities to close a touch lower on Wednesday. European stocks advanced
amid news that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confirmed an increase in emergency
funding to Greece by 900 million euros ($978 million) over one week. He added the ECB would "grant in
principle a 3-year ESM stability support to Greece, subject to the completion of relevant national
procedures." Very early Thursday morning, Greece's parliament approved a stringent reform bill amid
violent protests by locals. The legislation paves the way for financial aid worth 86 billion euros ($94
billion). The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 45 points, or 0.25%, at 18,096. The S&P 500 traded
up 15 points, or 0.69%, at 2,122, with telecommunications leading nine sectors higher and materials the
only decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 54 points, or 1.07%, at 5,153. Gold is trading about 0.3% lower,
crude oil is seen trading about 0.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.5% higher at
about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Wednesday, there were 287 contracts traded, down from 742 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open
interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 38 contracts to 8,930.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to Drift Sideways as Market Lacks
Fundamental Drivers
Jul 16, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading 1 cent per cwt (about $0.22 per
ton) higher at $11.070 per cwt (about $244 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other
grains are seen trading higher this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.9% higher,
wheat is listed about 0.9% higher and corn is currently noted about 1.5% higher.
U.S. stocks were were tipped to open higher on Thursday with earnings, the second leg of Federal
Reserve chief Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress and a European Central Bank meeting all in focus.
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Better-than-expected earnings results from Intel and Netflix after the closing bell on Wednesday, and
news that Greece's parliament voted for key legislation to secure a third bailout, could set a positive
tone for the U.S. open. Stock futures on all three major U.S. stock markets traded in positive territory,
with Dow Jones industrial average futures up over 80 points in early London trade. U.S. weekly jobless
claims came in at 281,000, better than the 285,000 estimate. In addition to the earnings and data,
markets await Yellen's testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. On Wednesday, Yellen reiterated
recent comments that interest rates are likely to rise this year. The European Central Bank kept interest
rates unchanged. At a press conference following the decision, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the
central bank decided "to grant in principle a 3-year ESM stability support to Greece, subject to the
completion of relevant national procedures." Gold is currently trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is
seen trading about 0.8% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4% higher
at8:45am Chicago time.
Oryza Global Weather Outlook
Jul 16, 2015
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In China, heavy rain is expected in south-eastern Henan, eastern Hubei, Anhui, northern Jiangxi, eastern
Guangxi and western Yunnan during the next three days.
In Pakistan, widespread rain is expected in Kashmir, Hazara, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Gujranwala and
Lahore divisions while at scattered places in Malakand, Peshawar, Kohat, Mardan, FATA, Faisalabad and
Sarghodha divisions during the next three days.
Heavy rain is expected in Southern and Eastern Thailand during the next two days. And light rain is
expected across Thailand during the next three Thailand. Typhoon “NANGKA” over the Pacific Ocean will
move to Japan. The storms have not a significant impact on Thailand.
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Rain showers are expected across most of places in Vietnam on Thursday and Friday.
Heavy rain is expected in some places in Northern, Eastern and Southern India during the next four
days. Scattered rains are expected at some places in Western India during next three days.
In Indonesia, scattered showers are expected across Sumatra and northern Borneo on Thursday and
Friday. Dry weather is expected in Sulawesi.
In Bangladesh, light to moderate rain is likely to occur at many places over Rangpur, Rajshahi, Dhaka,
Khulna, Barisal, Chittagong & Sylhet divisions with moderately heavy to heavy falls at places over the
country.
In the U.S. Delta region, dry weather is expected on Thursday. And light showers are expected in the
north of Delta on Friday.
Nigeria Rice Seeks Investments from Thailand to Boost Rice Production, Exports
Jul 16, 2015
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The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) of Nigeria has invited Thailand to
invest in Nigeria's rice industry to help boost production, according to local sources.
The Permanent Secretary of the FMARD has called on potential investors from Thailand to explore
opportunities in Nigeria's various crop processing zones. He said they can establish rice and other crop
processing plants for improving production and exports. He welcomed Thai technology especially in rice
production.
He reportedly extended the invitation to Thai delegation that visited Nigeria recently to explore areas of
possible investment in the country's food processing sector. He told local sources that the Nigerian
government is willing to work with Thailand to develop agriculture in the country in order to diversify
exports, increase employment and enhance economic growth.
The Head of the Thai delegation, including participant from the business community, Thai Embassy in
Nigeria and the Thai Board of Investment, added that the Thai government would extend its support to
develop Nigeria's agri-business sector. He disclosed that the Thai government is currently planning to
partner with rice farmers in the Niger state to help them boost rice production. He also noted that they
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would be taken to Thailand and provide them the necessary training and help them familiarize with
various agriculture machinery.
Thailand Estimates Losses from Stockpiled Rice Sales at $2.93 Billion
Jul 16, 2015
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The Thai government is estimating losses from selling the stockpiled rice at around 100 billion baht
(around $2.93 billion), Bloomberg quoted the Commerce Minister.
As at the end of June 2015, Thai government had around 15.11 million tons of rice in its stocks, of which
around 9.15 million was declared as suitable for consumption, around 4.6 million tons were declared as
poor quality and another 1.29 as rotten rice.
The government is planning to sell the 1.29 million tons of rotten rice to industrial sector
In February this year, Thailand's Finance Ministry has estimated the total losses from 11 subsidy
schemes covering 15 harvests from 2004-14 at around 700 billion baht (around $21.5 billion). He noted
that losses from the rice pledging scheme introduced by the Yingluck-led government alone amounted
to around 536 billion baht (around $16.5 billion).
The previous government purchased rice from farmers at above market prices under a subsidy scheme.
The scheme ran for five seasons from October 2011 to February 2014.
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Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Hold Steady as Most Buyers Are Reluctant to Pay Up
Jul 16, 2015
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The U.S. cash market was unchanged to today as farmer prices ideas have skyrocketed with the jump in
the futures market however there are very few buyers eager to pay those prices today.
Analysts note that there is a sizable amount of farmers with old crop left to sell who are hoping to see
prices increase even further however many are urging them to price their remaining inventory now
before new crop becomes available.
Today the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on July 9th, totaled
100,100 tons, which was considerably higher than last week and 65% higher than the prior 4-week
average.
Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 43,700 tons to Mexico, 30,000 tons to
Venezuela, 20,000 tons Libya, 6,100 tons to El Salvador, including 3,200 tons switched from Guatemala
and decreased of 200 tons, and 1,600 tons to Canada, while net sales of 400 tons were reported for
Mexico for 2015/2016.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 17,900 tons, which was 83% lower than last week and 74% lower than the
prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included: 3,100 tons to El Salvador, 3,000 tons to
Mexico, 2,900 tons to Canada, 2,400 tons to Japan, and 1,800 tons to Saudi Arabia.
Cambodia Rice Farmers May be Advised to Plant Early-Maturing Varieties if Drought Conditions Persist
Jul 16, 2015
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Cambodia rice farmers have started planting for the 2015 main rice crop in May and will continue till
July end. However, unusually high temperatures and low rainfall are raising concerns that this year's
paddy production will suffer significantly due to the drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern,
according to a report by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The Director of the Cambodian Center for Study and Development in Agriculture Environment Program
told local sources that farmers have almost finished planting in about 30% of the over 2 million hectares
of rice area but insufficient rains so far have led to a major portion of plants die.
The Director General of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) noted that the
government is monitoring situation closely and they are expecting rains in some provinces to recover.
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However, he expressed concern that if rains don't recover in the next two weeks, rice farmers could face
problems.
He added that the Ministry would intervene and assist farmers if the country does not receive rains in
the next two weeks. He said the Ministry is planning to advise farmers to plant early maturing varieties
instead of the usual long-duration rice varieties.
The Technical Adviser to the Mekong River Commission Drought Management Program added that if the
country does not receive sufficient rains by August, it may have to face food shortages.
Last week, the spokesman of the Ministry of Water Resource and Meteorology told reporters that The
Ministry spokesman told reporters that a dry spell associated with the El Nino weather pattern, which is
expected to lower rice output in Thailand, wouldn't have same impact on Cambodia. “The rainfall is
expected to be even better than last year," he said. The official also noted that dry spell, which usually
occurs in the month of July every year is not expected to occur this year and the country will receive
heavy rainfall from this week until September encouraging the rice planting operations.
Thailand Rice Quotes Mixed; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today
Jul 16, 2015
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Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice by about a $5 per ton to around $360-
$370 per ton and increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about a $10 per ton to around $405-$415
per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged
today.
5% Broken Rice
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Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $45 per ton premium on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton,
about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $360 - $370 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from yesterday and
about a $35 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice
is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around
$330 - $340 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $405 - $415 per ton, up about a $10 per ton from
yesterday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $370- $380 per ton, about a $45 per ton discount
to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $415 - $425 per
ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100%
broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 -
$305 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 -
$295 per ton.
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Researchers from the Lucknow-based Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)-National
Botanical Research Institute (CSIR-NBRI) have developed a new rice variety that minimizes absorption of
arsenic from the soil, according to the Times of India.
The NBRI Director told reporters that rice variety CN-1794-2-CSIR-NBRI/Muktashri has been developed
after seven years of research and currently it is under trials. He noted that the variety minimizes
absorption of arsenic to a large extent even when grown in areas with high arsenic levels in soil. The
variety accumulates arsenic less than the maximum permissible daily intake and also provides high
yields, he added.
Rice growing areas in the Indo-Gangetic plains are said to have higher arsenic levels, which are feared to
cause serious health concerns.
The official noted that the government of India's eastern state West Bengal would release the Muktashri
rice variety shortly.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Fall as Morning Rally Turns to Afternoon Selloff for
US Grains
Page 45 of 95
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Jul 16, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 10 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $10.960
per cwt (about $242 per ton). The other grains finished the day mostly lower following a mid-day
reversal; Soybeans closed about 0.5% lower at $10.1100 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.8% lower at
$5.6225 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.2% higher at $4.4100 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded higher on Thursday as investors focused on earnings beats amid progress towards
near-term resolution in the Greek debt crisis. The Philadelphia Fed survey came in at 5.7 for July, off
June's 15.2 read, following a weaker Empire State read and a disappointing June retail sales report. In
more positive news, the NAHB survey showed U.S. homebuilder sentiment hit a 10-year high. U.S.
weekly jobless claims came in at 281,000, better than the 285,000 estimate. Nervousness ahead of the
Greek vote pressured U.S. equities to close a touch lower on Wednesday. European stocks advanced
amid news that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confirmed an increase in emergency
funding to Greece by 900 million euros ($978 million) over one week. He added the ECB would "grant in
principle a 3-year ESM stability support to Greece, subject to the completion of relevant national
procedures." Very early Thursday morning, Greece's parliament approved a stringent reform bill amid
violent protests by locals. The legislation paves the way for financial aid worth 86 billion euros ($94
billion). The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 45 points, or 0.25%, at 18,096. The S&P 500 traded
up 15 points, or 0.69%, at 2,122, with telecommunications leading nine sectors higher and materials the
only decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 54 points, or 1.07%, at 5,153. Gold is trading about 0.3% lower,
crude oil is seen trading about 0.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.5% higher at
about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Wednesday, there were 287 contracts traded, down from 742 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open
interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 38 contracts to 8,930.
Page 46 of 95
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Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to Drift Sideways as Market Lacks
Fundamental Drivers
Jul 16, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading 1 cent per cwt (about $0.22 per
ton) higher at $11.070 per cwt (about $244 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other
grains are seen trading higher this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.9% higher,
wheat is listed about 0.9% higher and corn is currently noted about 1.5% higher.
U.S. stocks were were tipped to open higher on Thursday with earnings, the second leg of Federal
Reserve chief Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress and a European Central Bank meeting all in focus.
Better-than-expected earnings results from Intel and Netflix after the closing bell on Wednesday, and
news that Greece's parliament voted for key legislation to secure a third bailout, could set a positive
tone for the U.S. open. Stock futures on all three major U.S. stock markets traded in positive territory,
with Dow Jones industrial average futures up over 80 points in early London trade. U.S. weekly jobless
claims came in at 281,000, better than the 285,000 estimate. In addition to the earnings and data,
markets await Yellen's testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. On Wednesday, Yellen reiterated
recent comments that interest rates are likely to rise this year. The European Central Bank kept interest
rates unchanged. At a press conference following the decision, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the
central bank decided "to grant in principle a 3-year ESM stability support to Greece, subject to the
completion of relevant national procedures." Gold is currently trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is
seen trading about 0.8% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4% higher
at8:45am Chicago time.
Oryza Global Weather Outlook
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Jul 16, 2015
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In China, heavy rain is expected in south-eastern Henan, eastern Hubei, Anhui, northern Jiangxi, eastern
Guangxi and western Yunnan during the next three days.
In Pakistan, widespread rain is expected in Kashmir, Hazara, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Gujranwala and
Lahore divisions while at scattered places in Malakand, Peshawar, Kohat, Mardan, FATA, Faisalabad and
Sarghodha divisions during the next three days.
Heavy rain is expected in Southern and Eastern Thailand during the next two days. And light rain is
expected across Thailand during the next three Thailand. Typhoon “NANGKA” over the Pacific Ocean will
move to Japan. The storms have not a significant impact on Thailand.
Rain showers are expected across most of places in Vietnam on Thursday and Friday.
Heavy rain is expected in some places in Northern, Eastern and Southern India during the next four
days. Scattered rains are expected at some places in Western India during next three days.
In Indonesia, scattered showers are expected across Sumatra and northern Borneo on Thursday and
Friday. Dry weather is expected in Sulawesi.
In Bangladesh, light to moderate rain is likely to occur at many places over Rangpur, Rajshahi, Dhaka,
Khulna, Barisal, Chittagong & Sylhet divisions with moderately heavy to heavy falls at places over the
country.
In the U.S. Delta region, dry weather is expected on Thursday. And light showers are expected in the
north of Delta on Friday.
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Nigeria Rice Seeks Investments from Thailand to Boost Rice Production, Exports
Jul 16, 2015
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The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) of Nigeria has invited Thailand to
invest in Nigeria's rice industry to help boost production, according to local sources.
The Permanent Secretary of the FMARD has called on potential investors from Thailand to explore
opportunities in Nigeria's various crop processing zones. He said they can establish rice and other crop
processing plants for improving production and exports. He welcomed Thai technology especially in rice
production.
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He reportedly extended the invitation to Thai delegation that visited Nigeria recently to explore areas of
possible investment in the country's food processing sector. He told local sources that the Nigerian
government is willing to work with Thailand to develop agriculture in the country in order to diversify
exports, increase employment and enhance economic growth.
The Head of the Thai delegation, including participant from the business community, Thai Embassy in
Nigeria and the Thai Board of Investment, added that the Thai government would extend its support to
develop Nigeria's agri-business sector. He disclosed that the Thai government is currently planning to
partner with rice farmers in the Niger state to help them boost rice production. He also noted that they
would be taken to Thailand and provide them the necessary training and help them familiarize with
various agriculture machinery.
Thailand Estimates Losses from Stockpiled Rice Sales at $2.93 Billion
Jul 16, 2015
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The Thai government is estimating losses from selling the stockpiled rice at around 100 billion baht
(around $2.93 billion), Bloomberg quoted the Commerce Minister.
As at the end of June 2015, Thai government had around 15.11 million tons of rice in its stocks, of which
around 9.15 million was declared as suitable for consumption, around 4.6 million tons were declared as
poor quality and another 1.29 as rotten rice.
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The government is planning to sell the 1.29 million tons of rotten rice to industrial sector
In February this year, Thailand's Finance Ministry has estimated the total losses from 11 subsidy
schemes covering 15 harvests from 2004-14 at around 700 billion baht (around $21.5 billion). He noted
that losses from the rice pledging scheme introduced by the Yingluck-led government alone amounted
to around 536 billion baht (around $16.5 billion).
The previous government purchased rice from farmers at above market prices under a subsidy scheme.
The scheme ran for five seasons from October 2011 to February 2014.
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Hold Steady as Most Buyers Are Reluctant to Pay Up
Jul 16, 2015
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The U.S. cash market was unchanged to today as farmer prices ideas have skyrocketed with the jump in
the futures market however there are very few buyers eager to pay those prices today.
Analysts note that there is a sizable amount of farmers with old crop left to sell who are hoping to see
prices increase even further however many are urging them to price their remaining inventory now
before new crop becomes available.
Today the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on July 9th, totaled
100,100 tons, which was considerably higher than last week and 65% higher than the prior 4-week
average.
Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 43,700 tons to Mexico, 30,000 tons to
Venezuela, 20,000 tons Libya, 6,100 tons to El Salvador, including 3,200 tons switched from Guatemala
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and decreased of 200 tons, and 1,600 tons to Canada, while net sales of 400 tons were reported for
Mexico for 2015/2016.
U.S. rice exporters shipped 17,900 tons, which was 83% lower than last week and 74% lower than the
prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included: 3,100 tons to El Salvador, 3,000 tons to
Mexico, 2,900 tons to Canada, 2,400 tons to Japan, and 1,800 tons to Saudi Arabia.
Cambodia Rice Farmers May be Advised to Plant Early-Maturing Varieties if Drought Conditions Persist
Jul 16, 2015
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Cambodia rice farmers have started planting for the 2015 main rice crop in May and will continue till
July end. However, unusually high temperatures and low rainfall are raising concerns that this year's
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paddy production will suffer significantly due to the drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern,
according to a report by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The Director of the Cambodian Center for Study and Development in Agriculture Environment Program
told local sources that farmers have almost finished planting in about 30% of the over 2 million hectares
of rice area but insufficient rains so far have led to a major portion of plants die.
The Director General of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) noted that the
government is monitoring situation closely and they are expecting rains in some provinces to recover.
However, he expressed concern that if rains don't recover in the next two weeks, rice farmers could face
problems.
He added that the Ministry would intervene and assist farmers if the country does not receive rains in
the next two weeks. He said the Ministry is planning to advise farmers to plant early maturing varieties
instead of the usual long-duration rice varieties.
The Technical Adviser to the Mekong River Commission Drought Management Program added that if the
country does not receive sufficient rains by August, it may have to face food shortages.
Last week, the spokesman of the Ministry of Water Resource and Meteorology told reporters that The
Ministry spokesman told reporters that a dry spell associated with the El Nino weather pattern, which is
expected to lower rice output in Thailand, wouldn't have same impact on Cambodia. “The rainfall is
expected to be even better than last year," he said. The official also noted that dry spell, which usually
occurs in the month of July every year is not expected to occur this year and the country will receive
heavy rainfall from this week until September encouraging the rice planting operations.
Thailand Rice Quotes Mixed; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today
Jul 16, 2015
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Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for 25% broken rice by about a $5 per ton to around $360-
$370 per ton and increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about a $10 per ton to around $405-$415
per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged
today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $45 per ton premium on Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton,
about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $360 - $370 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from yesterday and
about a $35 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice
is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around
$330 - $340 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $405 - $415 per ton, up about a $10 per ton from
yesterday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $370- $380 per ton, about a $45 per ton discount
to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $415 - $425 per
ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100%
broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 -
$305 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 -
$295 per ton.
India 2015-16 Main Paddy Rice Sowing Area Picks Up
Despite Deficient Monsoons
Jul 17, 2015
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Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June - December) stood at around
13.211 million hectares as of July 17, 2015, up about 4% from around 12.655 million hectares
planted during the same time last year, according to a press release by the Agriculture Ministry.
India received 6% below normal rainfall in the third week of July, according to the Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD). Central, south peninsular and north-east regions received 15%,
13% and 4% below average rains during the week. However, the north-west region received 12%
above-average rainfall. Analysts are concerned that less rainfall in July could severely impact rice
yields.
If rains do not pick up in the next few days, a substantial decline in acreage and yields is possible,
India Today quoted an official from the Agriculture Ministry. The IMD is predicting rains to improve in
the central and southern regions after July 20.
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A likely drought-inducing El Nino this year is expected to lower production prospects this year. The
IMD has forecasted the El Nino pattern to reach to moderate to a strong one during the monsoon
season (June – September).
The total Kharif crop sown area stands at 56.34 million hectares as on July 17, 2015, up about 63%
from around 34.63 million hectares during the same period last year, according to the Agriculture
Ministry.
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Government of India Procures 31.518 Million Tons of
Rice as of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15
Jul 17, 2015
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The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement and distribution
has procured around 31.518 million tons of rice as of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15 (October 2014 -
September 2015), down about 1% from last year, according to data by the Ministry of Consumer
Affairs, Food & Public Distribution.
Punjab (7.781 million tons), Andhra Pradesh (3.504 million tons), Odisha (3.486 million tons),
Telangana (3.419 million tons) and Chhattisgarh (3.355 million tons) are the top contributors to the
central pool so far in KMS 2014-15.
The Indian government is targeting to procure 35.109 million tons of rice during the KMS 2014-15.
Myanmar Rice Stocks Surge Due to Lack of Demand
from China
Jul 17, 2015
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Unofficial rice exports to China through borders constitute major part of Myanmar's rice exports, but
this year, the trend has been different with the Chinese authorities cracking down on illegal rice
exports since August 2014.
Local sources say the Chinese authorities have arrested several buyers for tax evasion and most of
the traders are not showing interest in importing rice from Myanmar through borders. Nearly 59
traders have been arrested so far for evading taxes.
Even Myanmar rice traders are reluctant to sell rice to Chinese traders as most of them have not
received settlements from them. Even if there is some demand, prices offered are very low, they told
local sources.
However, Myanmar has finalized an export deal with China to export about 100,000 tons of rice this
year to China. First official shipment had reportedly commenced in May.
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In this backdrop, Myanmar's rice stocks have been piling up and traders expect local prices to drop
due to lack of demand. However, one of the trader told that prices so far are firm. They also
expressed optimism that the Chinese demand may pick up after the monsoon season.
Meanwhile, while the government is also exploring new markets, the Director of the Trade Promotion
Department under the Ministry of Commerce noted that this year's exports may be impacted due to
the decline in informal trade with China as well as challenges in promoting exports to new markets
amid a stiff competition from Thailand, India and Vietnam.
India Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes;
Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today
Jul 17, 2015
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India rice sellers increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about a $10 per ton to around $380-
$390 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $45 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.
India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5%
rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
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Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $360 - $370 per ton, about a $35 per ton premium on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360,
about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at
around $380- $390 per ton, up about $10 per ton from yesterday and about a $35 per ton discount to
Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $415 - $425 per
ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, on par with Vietnam
100% broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at
around $295 - $305 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown
at around $285 - $295 per ton.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice
Futures Finish the Week on Bearish Note as
Improving Weather Conditions Pressure US Grain
Prices
Jul 17, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 4 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at
$10.920 per cwt (about $241 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower; Soybeans closed
about 0.4% lower at $10.0675 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.5% lower at $5.5400 per bushel,
and corn finished the day about 2.2% lower at $4.3125 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq at a new high, as investors digested more
earnings and data reports. Futures held near earlier mixed levels after the June consumer price
index (CPI) showed a fifth-straight month of increase with a rise of 0.3%, in-line with estimates.
Stripping out food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.2% after rising 0.1% in May. In other
economic news, housing starts rebounded strongly in June, up 9.8%, and building permits surged to
a near eight-year high. The preliminary read on the July consumer sentiment came in at 93.3. The
economic data come a day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that U.S. interest
rates are likely to rise this year depending on economic conditions. The Fed has kept interest rates
at a record low near zero since the global financial crisis and speculation about a rate hike has
helped boost the dollar this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 72 points, or
0.40%, at 18,047. The S&P 500 traded down 3 points, or 0.13%, at 2,121, with energy leading nine
sectors lower and information technology the only advancer, rising 1.4%. The Nasdaq traded up 27
points, or 0.54%, at 5,190. Gold is trading about 1% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.8%
lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.2% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Thursday, there were 514 contracts traded, up from 287 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open
interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday decreased by 99 contracts to 8,831.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures
Dragged Lower by Softer US Grain Prices
Jul 17, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading 4 cent per cwt (about $1 per
ton) lower at $10.920 per cwt (about $241 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other
grains are seen trading lower this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.8% lower,
wheat is listed about 1.6% lower and corn is currently noted about 1.7% lower.
U.S. stocks opened mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq trying for new highs, as investors digested
more earnings and data reports. Futures held near earlier mixed levels after the June consumer
price index (CPI) showed a fifth-straight month of increase with a rise of 0.3%, in-line with estimates.
Stripping out food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.2% after rising 0.1% in May. Housing starts
rebounded strongly in June, up 9.8%, and building permits surged to a near eight-year high. Later in
the morning at 10:00 the June consumer sentiment index is due. The data come a day after Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that U.S. interest rates are likely to rise this year depending on
economic conditions. The Fed has kept interest rates at a record low near zero since the global
financial crisis and speculation about a rate hike has helped boost the dollar this year. The European
Central Bank, meanwhile, said on Thursday it would increase emergency liquidity to Greek banks,
which will reopen on Monday after being closed for three weeks. Gold is currently trading about
0.6% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.1% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading
about 0.1% higher at 8:45am Chicago time.
Oryza Weekly: Extending Drought Conditions in Asia
and South America Continue to Threaten Global Rice
Supplies
Jul 17, 2015
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The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended
the week at about $407 per ton, up about $3 per ton from a week ago, up about $9 per ton from a
month ago and down about $67 per ton from a year ago.
The USDA forecasts 2015 global rice trade to reach a record 43.7 million tons. The agency
forecasts 2015-16 global milled rice production to reach a record 480.3 million tons, due to expected
increased rice acreage. The agency forecasts 2015-16 global rice acreage to reach a record 161.6
million hectares, up about 1% from last year. The organization estimates 2015-16 global rice
consumption at around 488.8 million tons, up about 1% from last year. The USDA estimates 2015-
16 global rice ending stocks will decline by about 8.5% from last year to 90.5 million tons.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $395 per ton, up about $10 per ton from a week
ago, up about $35 per ton from a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.
Thailand's Ministry of Commerce is planning to start auctioning of the 1.29 million tons of rice
declared as substandard and unfit for consumption by the end of this month.
The Chairman of the Rice Committee of National Farmers' Council urged the government of
Thailand to pay compensation about 3,000 - 4,000 baht per rai (around $549-$732 per hectare) to
farmers whose lands have been impacted by the cut in water supplies.
Rice traders have urged the government to expedite sales of rotten rice stocks in order to take
advantage of the high demand in the market amid concerns of falling production due to drought
conditions.
Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics estimates 2015 main rice crop output will decline about
14% from last year to around 23.3 million tons due to persisting drought conditions.
The government has approved loans of around $60 billion baht (around $1.77 billion) to support rice
farmers impacted by drought.
The Thai Insurance Commission has decided to increase this year’s target for rice insurance policies
for in-season paddy fields by about 500,000 rai (about 80,000 hectares) to around 2 million rai
(about 320,000 hectares) in order to support farmers affected by drought.
The Thai government is estimating losses from selling the stockpiled rice at around 100 billion baht
(about $2.93 billion), according to the Commerce Minister.
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Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $350 per ton, unchanged from a week and a
month ago and down about $85 per ton from a year ago.
The European Commission plans to import rice from Vietnam at zero percent duty under a bilateral
agreement.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development is advising rice farmers in the drought-ridden
central and Northern provinces to shift from rice to other drought-resistant crops.
Cambodia & Myanmar
Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $435 per ton, unchanged from a week ago and a
month ago and down about $10 per ton from a year ago. Rice farmers in Cambodia may be advised
to plant early-maturing varieties if drought conditions persist.
Commerce Ministry Officials in Myanmar have expressed concern that exports may decline in 2015
despite weakening currency. Myanmar’s rice stocks are expected to increase, and rice prices may
fall, due to a decline in unofficial, cross border rice imports by China.
India
India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $390 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week ago, up
about $20 per ton from month ago, and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.
Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June - December) stood at around
13.211 million hectares as of July 17, 2015, up about 4% from around 12.655 million hectares
planted during the same time last year despite deficient rainfall in the central, southern and north-
east regions.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement and distribution
has procured around 31.518 million tons of rice as of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15 (October 2014 -
September 2015), down about 1% from last year.
Rice millers from the state of Haryana say rice variety 1509 is not suitable for exporting to the
international market.
Analysts say that the lifting of sanctions on Iran by the U.S. and the E.U. will not affect India’s
basmati rice exports.
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Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week
ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $65 per ton from a year ago.
The National Space Agency of Pakistan and UN’s FAO report that Pakistan is aiming to produce 6.9
million tons of milled rice in 2015-16.
Central & South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down
about $50 per ton from a month ago and down about $165 per ton from a year ago.
Brazil’s Conab has forecast the country’s 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.499 million
tons, up about 3% from 2013-14 and slightly down from its June forecast.
The USDA Post estimates MY 2015-16 Brazil rice exports to be around 900,000 tons, unchanged
from MY 2014-15 and USDA’s official estimates.
The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by CEPEA reached around 33.78 real per 50 kilograms
as of July 10, 2015, up about 0.30% from around 33.68 real per 50 kilograms recorded on July 3,
2015.In terms of USD per ton, the index reached around $212 per ton on July 10, 2015, down about
1.50% from around $215 per ton recorded on July 3, 2015.
Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $540 per ton,
unchanged from a week ago, down about $25 per ton from a month ago, and down about $85 per
ton from a year ago.
Guyana's millers and exporters are worried they may lose an important rice market,
Venezuela. Under the two nation’s PetroCaribe deal, Guyana sells rice to Venezuela in exchange
for oil. However, the existing deal will expire in November 2015, and Venezuela has indicated it will
not renew the deal after its expiration. The Agriculture Minister reportedly assured the Guyana
Millers and Exporters Marketing Association (GMEMA) that exports to Venezuela under the existing
agreement will not be halted before its expiration in November.
Rice farmers in Uruguay are concerned the drought conditions and falling water levels in dams,
rivers, and ponds will threaten 2015-16 rice harvests. Meanwhile, drought conditions in Caribbean
countries such as Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Trinidad & Tobago and the Dominican Republic are
posing challenges to their respective governments.
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The Dominican Republic-Central America FTA free trade pact has helped Dominican farmers to
lower their rice production costs by about 30% in the last three years.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $475 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about
$20 per ton from a month ago and down about $80 per ton from a year ago.
In its latest World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates report, the USDA estimates US 2015-
16 rice supplies will be around 12.63 million tons, down about 4% from last month’s estimates due to
an expected decline in production.
Other Markets
Rice imports into China have declined sharply in the first four months of 2015, with the country
importing around 628,000 tons of rice, about 23% less than the same period last year.
Rice stocks in the Philippines have declined in June 2015 after increasing in April and May, and the
Bureau of Statistics says rice stocks are sufficient for 89 days. Separately, the Philippines Statistics
Authority estimates Philippines’ 2015 second quarter production to be around 3.905 million tons,
down about 4.1% from last year and up about 0.1% from April’s forecast.
The UN’s FAO estimates 2015 rice imports to Indonesia will decline to about 900,000 tons due to
favorable production outlook. This is down about 10% from 2014.
The National Agency for Rice in Italy estimates rice acreage to increase about 3.2% from 2014 to
226,000 hectares.
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Philippines Paddy Output Falls Short of Target in
First Half of 2015
Jul 17, 2015
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The Philippines paddy output in the first half of 2015 has reached around 8.3 million tons, down
about 1% from last year's 8.39 million tons and down about 2.4% from the targeted 8.5 million tons,
local sources quoted a preliminary report by the Department of Agriculture (DA).
The decline is attributed to a delay in planting due to an El Nino-induced dry spell.
The Agriculture Secretary noted that the government still adheres to the 20.8 million tons target for
this year. He expressed confidence that the rice output would improve during the wet cropping
season. which contributes to nearly 60% of the country's annual production, in the second half of the
year.
He noted that the DA is intervening to help farmers cope with the dry spell. He added that the
government is developing multi-stress tolerant rice varieties and is providing enhanced irrigation
facilities and modern farming technologies to farmers. The government plans to plant around
400,000 high-quality seeds, including 331,000 hybrid seeds and 77,000 inbred seeds, by the end of
this year.
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Thai Rice Farmers' Associations Seek Compensation
to Cope With Drought Conditions
Jul 17, 2015
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The Chairman of the Rice Committee of National Farmers' Council urged the government of
Thailand to pay compensation to farmers whose lands have been impacted by the cut in water
supplies, according to local sources.
The Council Chairman noted that the government should pay a compensation of about 3,000 - 4,000
baht per rai (around $549-$732 per hectare) to help farmers who had already spent on land
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preparation, fertilizers etc., He reiterated that farmers began planting operations from May 1 only
after the government had advised them to do so.
He noted that the cut in water supply, which started from July 15 will impact around 1.4 million rai
(around 224,000 hectares) in the central region, according to local sources.
Separately, the National Reform Council (NRC) has also urged the government to speed up the
processes to help the farmers impacted by drought. The Chairman of the NRC's Committee on
Agriculture Reform noted that he is likely to submit a proposal, that focuses on quicker
implementation of measures to help rice farmers, to the government.
He noted that most of the 14.8 million rice farmers in the country are battling drought conditions as
well as rising costs, falling rice prices and increasing debts.
Nearly 66 provinces in Central Thailand are facing dry weather conditions and the government has
advised rice farmers to delay planting for the 2015 main rice crop until August, when it is expecting
rains to resume. The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has estimated that the output from
2015 main rice crop, which contributes to around 70% of the country's total rice output, to decline
about 14% to around 23.3 million tons from around 27.1 million tons last year.
Thailand Expands Insurance Scheme to 320,000
Hectares of Main Rice Crop to Support Drought-Hit
Farmers
Jul 15, 2015
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The Thai Insurance Commission has decided to increase this year's target for rice insurance policies
for in-season paddy fields by about 500,000 rai (around 80,000 hectares) to around 2 million rai
(around 320,000 hectares) in order to support farmers affected by drought, according to local
sources.
The Secretary-General of the Commission told local sources that as of July 8, sales of insurance
policies for in-season paddy fields have reached around 1.33 million rai (around 212,800 hectares)
or about 89.1% of the old target of 1.5 million rai (around 240,000 hectares).
He noted that the decision to increase the target has been taken after discussions with the Finance
Ministry, the Agriculture Ministry, the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), and
the Thai General Insurance Association (TGIA).
The Secretary-General noted that the policy would cover damages from natural disasters as well as
pests and epidemics.
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Currently seven insurers are offering main rice-crop insurance through the Bank for Agriculture and
Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) between May 6 - August 14, 2015. In the south, the insurance will
be reportedly offered until December 11, 2015.
Nearly 66 provinces in Central Thailand are battling drought and the government has government
has advised rice farmers to delay planting for the 2015 main rice crop until August, when it is
expecting rains to resume. The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has estimated that the output
from 2015 main rice crop, which contributes to around 70% of the country's total rice output, to
decline about 14% to around 23.3 million tons from around 27.1 million tons last year.
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Thailand Plans to Begin Substandard Rice Sales by
End of July
Jul 17, 2015
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Thailand's Ministry of Commerce is planning to start auctioning of the 1.29 million tons of rice
declared as substandard and unfit for consumption by the end of this month, according to local
sources.
The Commerce Minister told reporters that one lot of sub-standard rice stocks will be put up for
auction this month. A committee will be established to oversee the sales procedure and that
auctioning process would be carried out with utmost transparency, he said. The Minister also noted
that the government would also take up a follow-up inspection to ensure that the poor-quality rice is
not being used for consumption.
He noted that a specialized agency would divide the rice into two categories - rice affected by molds
and rice not affected by molds. He said the rice affected with molds would be offered to the industrial
sector for bio gas and fuel production, and the rice unaffected by any contaminations would be sold
for animal feed.
The price of the rice would be reportedly decided by a working group.
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The Thai government is estimating losses from selling the stockpiled rice at around 100 billion baht
(around $2.93 billion), Bloomberg quoted the Commerce Minister on July 16.
India 2015-16 Main Paddy Rice Sowing Area Picks Up
Despite Deficient Monsoons
Jul 17, 2015
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Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June - December) stood at around
13.211 million hectares as of July 17, 2015, up about 4% from around 12.655 million hectares
planted during the same time last year, according to a press release by the Agriculture Ministry.
India received 6% below normal rainfall in the third week of July, according to the Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD). Central, south peninsular and north-east regions received 15%,
13% and 4% below average rains during the week. However, the north-west region received 12%
above-average rainfall. Analysts are concerned that less rainfall in July could severely impact rice
yields.
If rains do not pick up in the next few days, a substantial decline in acreage and yields is possible,
India Today quoted an official from the Agriculture Ministry. The IMD is predicting rains to improve in
the central and southern regions after July 20.
A likely drought-inducing El Nino this year is expected to lower production prospects this year. The
IMD has forecasted the El Nino pattern to reach to moderate to a strong one during the monsoon
season (June – September).
The total Kharif crop sown area stands at 56.34 million hectares as on July 17, 2015, up about 63%
from around 34.63 million hectares during the same period last year, according to the Agriculture
Ministry.
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Government of India Procures 31.518 Million Tons of
Rice as of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15
Jul 17, 2015
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The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement and distribution
has procured around 31.518 million tons of rice as of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15 (October 2014 -
September 2015), down about 1% from last year, according to data by the Ministry of Consumer
Affairs, Food & Public Distribution.
Punjab (7.781 million tons), Andhra Pradesh (3.504 million tons), Odisha (3.486 million tons),
Telangana (3.419 million tons) and Chhattisgarh (3.355 million tons) are the top contributors to the
central pool so far in KMS 2014-15.
The Indian government is targeting to procure 35.109 million tons of rice during the KMS 2014-15.
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Myanmar Rice Stocks Surge Due to Lack of Demand
from China
Jul 17, 2015
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Unofficial rice exports to China through borders constitute major part of Myanmar's rice exports, but
this year, the trend has been different with the Chinese authorities cracking down on illegal rice
exports since August 2014.
Local sources say the Chinese authorities have arrested several buyers for tax evasion and most of
the traders are not showing interest in importing rice from Myanmar through borders. Nearly 59
traders have been arrested so far for evading taxes.
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Even Myanmar rice traders are reluctant to sell rice to Chinese traders as most of them have not
received settlements from them. Even if there is some demand, prices offered are very low, they told
local sources.
However, Myanmar has finalized an export deal with China to export about 100,000 tons of rice this
year to China. First official shipment had reportedly commenced in May.
In this backdrop, Myanmar's rice stocks have been piling up and traders expect local prices to drop
due to lack of demand. However, one of the trader told that prices so far are firm. They also
expressed optimism that the Chinese demand may pick up after the monsoon season.
Meanwhile, while the government is also exploring new markets, the Director of the Trade Promotion
Department under the Ministry of Commerce noted that this year's exports may be impacted due to
the decline in informal trade with China as well as challenges in promoting exports to new markets
amid a stiff competition from Thailand, India and Vietnam.
India Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes;
Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today
Jul 17, 2015
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India rice sellers increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about a $10 per ton to around $380-
$390 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
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Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $45 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.
India 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5%
rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $360 - $370 per ton, about a $35 per ton premium on Vietnam
25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360,
about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at
around $380- $390 per ton, up about $10 per ton from yesterday and about a $35 per ton discount to
Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $415 - $425 per
ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, on par with Vietnam
100% broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at
around $295 - $305 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown
at around $285 - $295 per ton.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice
Futures Finish the Week on Bearish Note as
Improving Weather Conditions Pressure US Grain
Prices
Jul 17, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 4 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at
$10.920 per cwt (about $241 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower; Soybeans closed
about 0.4% lower at $10.0675 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.5% lower at $5.5400 per bushel,
and corn finished the day about 2.2% lower at $4.3125 per bushel.
U.S. stocks traded mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq at a new high, as investors digested more
earnings and data reports. Futures held near earlier mixed levels after the June consumer price
index (CPI) showed a fifth-straight month of increase with a rise of 0.3%, in-line with estimates.
Stripping out food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.2% after rising 0.1% in May. In other
economic news, housing starts rebounded strongly in June, up 9.8%, and building permits surged to
a near eight-year high. The preliminary read on the July consumer sentiment came in at 93.3. The
economic data come a day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that U.S. interest
rates are likely to rise this year depending on economic conditions. The Fed has kept interest rates
at a record low near zero since the global financial crisis and speculation about a rate hike has
helped boost the dollar this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 72 points, or
0.40%, at 18,047. The S&P 500 traded down 3 points, or 0.13%, at 2,121, with energy leading nine
sectors lower and information technology the only advancer, rising 1.4%. The Nasdaq traded up 27
points, or 0.54%, at 5,190. Gold is trading about 1% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.8%
lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.2% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Thursday, there were 514 contracts traded, up from 287 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open
interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday decreased by 99 contracts to 8,831.
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures
Dragged Lower by Softer US Grain Prices
Jul 17, 2015
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Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading 4 cent per cwt (about $1 per
ton) lower at $10.920 per cwt (about $241 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other
grains are seen trading lower this morning; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.8% lower,
wheat is listed about 1.6% lower and corn is currently noted about 1.7% lower.
U.S. stocks opened mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq trying for new highs, as investors digested
more earnings and data reports. Futures held near earlier mixed levels after the June consumer
price index (CPI) showed a fifth-straight month of increase with a rise of 0.3%, in-line with estimates.
Stripping out food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 0.2% after rising 0.1% in May. Housing starts
rebounded strongly in June, up 9.8%, and building permits surged to a near eight-year high. Later in
the morning at 10:00 the June consumer sentiment index is due. The data come a day after Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated that U.S. interest rates are likely to rise this year depending on
economic conditions. The Fed has kept interest rates at a record low near zero since the global
financial crisis and speculation about a rate hike has helped boost the dollar this year. The European
Central Bank, meanwhile, said on Thursday it would increase emergency liquidity to Greek banks,
which will reopen on Monday after being closed for three weeks. Gold is currently trading about
0.6% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.1% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading
about 0.1% higher at 8:45am Chicago time.
Oryza Weekly: Extending Drought Conditions in Asia
and South America Continue to Threaten Global Rice
Supplies
Jul 17, 2015
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The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended
the week at about $407 per ton, up about $3 per ton from a week ago, up about $9 per ton from a
month ago and down about $67 per ton from a year ago.
The USDA forecasts 2015 global rice trade to reach a record 43.7 million tons. The agency
forecasts 2015-16 global milled rice production to reach a record 480.3 million tons, due to expected
increased rice acreage. The agency forecasts 2015-16 global rice acreage to reach a record 161.6
million hectares, up about 1% from last year. The organization estimates 2015-16 global rice
consumption at around 488.8 million tons, up about 1% from last year. The USDA estimates 2015-
16 global rice ending stocks will decline by about 8.5% from last year to 90.5 million tons.
Thailand
Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $395 per ton, up about $10 per ton from a week
ago, up about $35 per ton from a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.
Thailand's Ministry of Commerce is planning to start auctioning of the 1.29 million tons of rice
declared as substandard and unfit for consumption by the end of this month.
The Chairman of the Rice Committee of National Farmers' Council urged the government of
Thailand to pay compensation about 3,000 - 4,000 baht per rai (around $549-$732 per hectare) to
farmers whose lands have been impacted by the cut in water supplies.
Rice traders have urged the government to expedite sales of rotten rice stocks in order to take
advantage of the high demand in the market amid concerns of falling production due to drought
conditions.
Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics estimates 2015 main rice crop output will decline about
14% from last year to around 23.3 million tons due to persisting drought conditions.
The government has approved loans of around $60 billion baht (around $1.77 billion) to support rice
farmers impacted by drought.
The Thai Insurance Commission has decided to increase this year’s target for rice insurance policies
for in-season paddy fields by about 500,000 rai (about 80,000 hectares) to around 2 million rai
(about 320,000 hectares) in order to support farmers affected by drought.
The Thai government is estimating losses from selling the stockpiled rice at around 100 billion baht
(about $2.93 billion), according to the Commerce Minister.
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Vietnam
Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $350 per ton, unchanged from a week and a
month ago and down about $85 per ton from a year ago.
The European Commission plans to import rice from Vietnam at zero percent duty under a bilateral
agreement.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development is advising rice farmers in the drought-ridden
central and Northern provinces to shift from rice to other drought-resistant crops.
Cambodia & Myanmar
Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $435 per ton, unchanged from a week ago and a
month ago and down about $10 per ton from a year ago. Rice farmers in Cambodia may be advised
to plant early-maturing varieties if drought conditions persist.
Commerce Ministry Officials in Myanmar have expressed concern that exports may decline in 2015
despite weakening currency. Myanmar’s rice stocks are expected to increase, and rice prices may
fall, due to a decline in unofficial, cross border rice imports by China.
India
India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $390 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week ago, up
about $20 per ton from month ago, and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.
Total area planting to India's 2015-16 Kharif (main) rice crop (June - December) stood at around
13.211 million hectares as of July 17, 2015, up about 4% from around 12.655 million hectares
planted during the same time last year despite deficient rainfall in the central, southern and north-
east regions.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement and distribution
has procured around 31.518 million tons of rice as of July 15, 2015 in KMS 2014-15 (October 2014 -
September 2015), down about 1% from last year.
Rice millers from the state of Haryana say rice variety 1509 is not suitable for exporting to the
international market.
Analysts say that the lifting of sanctions on Iran by the U.S. and the E.U. will not affect India’s
basmati rice exports.
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Pakistan
Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week
ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $65 per ton from a year ago.
The National Space Agency of Pakistan and UN’s FAO report that Pakistan is aiming to produce 6.9
million tons of milled rice in 2015-16.
Central & South America
Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down
about $50 per ton from a month ago and down about $165 per ton from a year ago.
Brazil’s Conab has forecast the country’s 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.499 million
tons, up about 3% from 2013-14 and slightly down from its June forecast.
The USDA Post estimates MY 2015-16 Brazil rice exports to be around 900,000 tons, unchanged
from MY 2014-15 and USDA’s official estimates.
The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by CEPEA reached around 33.78 real per 50 kilograms
as of July 10, 2015, up about 0.30% from around 33.68 real per 50 kilograms recorded on July 3,
2015.In terms of USD per ton, the index reached around $212 per ton on July 10, 2015, down about
1.50% from around $215 per ton recorded on July 3, 2015.
Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $540 per ton,
unchanged from a week ago, down about $25 per ton from a month ago, and down about $85 per
ton from a year ago.
Guyana's millers and exporters are worried they may lose an important rice market,
Venezuela. Under the two nation’s PetroCaribe deal, Guyana sells rice to Venezuela in exchange
for oil. However, the existing deal will expire in November 2015, and Venezuela has indicated it will
not renew the deal after its expiration. The Agriculture Minister reportedly assured the Guyana
Millers and Exporters Marketing Association (GMEMA) that exports to Venezuela under the existing
agreement will not be halted before its expiration in November.
Rice farmers in Uruguay are concerned the drought conditions and falling water levels in dams,
rivers, and ponds will threaten 2015-16 rice harvests. Meanwhile, drought conditions in Caribbean
countries such as Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Trinidad & Tobago and the Dominican Republic are
posing challenges to their respective governments.
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The Dominican Republic-Central America FTA free trade pact has helped Dominican farmers to
lower their rice production costs by about 30% in the last three years.
U.S.
U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $475 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about
$20 per ton from a month ago and down about $80 per ton from a year ago.
In its latest World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates report, the USDA estimates US 2015-
16 rice supplies will be around 12.63 million tons, down about 4% from last month’s estimates due to
an expected decline in production.
Other Markets
Rice imports into China have declined sharply in the first four months of 2015, with the country
importing around 628,000 tons of rice, about 23% less than the same period last year.
Rice stocks in the Philippines have declined in June 2015 after increasing in April and May, and the
Bureau of Statistics says rice stocks are sufficient for 89 days. Separately, the Philippines Statistics
Authority estimates Philippines’ 2015 second quarter production to be around 3.905 million tons,
down about 4.1% from last year and up about 0.1% from April’s forecast.
The UN’s FAO estimates 2015 rice imports to Indonesia will decline to about 900,000 tons due to
favorable production outlook. This is down about 10% from 2014.
The National Agency for Rice in Italy estimates rice acreage to increase about 3.2% from 2014 to
226,000 hectares.
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Philippines Paddy Output Falls Short of Target in
First Half of 2015
Jul 17, 2015
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The Philippines paddy output in the first half of 2015 has reached around 8.3 million tons, down
about 1% from last year's 8.39 million tons and down about 2.4% from the targeted 8.5 million tons,
local sources quoted a preliminary report by the Department of Agriculture (DA).
The decline is attributed to a delay in planting due to an El Nino-induced dry spell.
The Agriculture Secretary noted that the government still adheres to the 20.8 million tons target for
this year. He expressed confidence that the rice output would improve during the wet cropping
season. which contributes to nearly 60% of the country's annual production, in the second half of the
year.
He noted that the DA is intervening to help farmers cope with the dry spell. He added that the
government is developing multi-stress tolerant rice varieties and is providing enhanced irrigation
facilities and modern farming technologies to farmers. The government plans to plant around
400,000 high-quality seeds, including 331,000 hybrid seeds and 77,000 inbred seeds, by the end of
this year.
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Thai Rice Farmers' Associations Seek Compensation
to Cope With Drought Conditions
Jul 17, 2015
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The Chairman of the Rice Committee of National Farmers' Council urged the government of
Thailand to pay compensation to farmers whose lands have been impacted by the cut in water
supplies, according to local sources.
The Council Chairman noted that the government should pay a compensation of about 3,000 - 4,000
baht per rai (around $549-$732 per hectare) to help farmers who had already spent on land
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preparation, fertilizers etc., He reiterated that farmers began planting operations from May 1 only
after the government had advised them to do so.
He noted that the cut in water supply, which started from July 15 will impact around 1.4 million rai
(around 224,000 hectares) in the central region, according to local sources.
Separately, the National Reform Council (NRC) has also urged the government to speed up the
processes to help the farmers impacted by drought. The Chairman of the NRC's Committee on
Agriculture Reform noted that he is likely to submit a proposal, that focuses on quicker
implementation of measures to help rice farmers, to the government.
He noted that most of the 14.8 million rice farmers in the country are battling drought conditions as
well as rising costs, falling rice prices and increasing debts.
Nearly 66 provinces in Central Thailand are facing dry weather conditions and the government has
advised rice farmers to delay planting for the 2015 main rice crop until August, when it is expecting
rains to resume. The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has estimated that the output from
2015 main rice crop, which contributes to around 70% of the country's total rice output, to decline
about 14% to around 23.3 million tons from around 27.1 million tons last year.
Thailand Expands Insurance Scheme to 320,000
Hectares of Main Rice Crop to Support Drought-Hit
Farmers
Jul 15, 2015
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The Thai Insurance Commission has decided to increase this year's target for rice insurance policies
for in-season paddy fields by about 500,000 rai (around 80,000 hectares) to around 2 million rai
(around 320,000 hectares) in order to support farmers affected by drought, according to local
sources.
The Secretary-General of the Commission told local sources that as of July 8, sales of insurance
policies for in-season paddy fields have reached around 1.33 million rai (around 212,800 hectares)
or about 89.1% of the old target of 1.5 million rai (around 240,000 hectares).
He noted that the decision to increase the target has been taken after discussions with the Finance
Ministry, the Agriculture Ministry, the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), and
the Thai General Insurance Association (TGIA).
The Secretary-General noted that the policy would cover damages from natural disasters as well as
pests and epidemics.
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Currently seven insurers are offering main rice-crop insurance through the Bank for Agriculture and
Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) between May 6 - August 14, 2015. In the south, the insurance will
be reportedly offered until December 11, 2015.
Nearly 66 provinces in Central Thailand are battling drought and the government has government
has advised rice farmers to delay planting for the 2015 main rice crop until August, when it is
expecting rains to resume. The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has estimated that the output
from 2015 main rice crop, which contributes to around 70% of the country's total rice output, to
decline about 14% to around 23.3 million tons from around 27.1 million tons last year.
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Thailand Plans to Begin Substandard Rice Sales by
End of July
Jul 17, 2015
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Thailand's Ministry of Commerce is planning to start auctioning of the 1.29 million tons of rice
declared as substandard and unfit for consumption by the end of this month, according to local
sources.
The Commerce Minister told reporters that one lot of sub-standard rice stocks will be put up for
auction this month. A committee will be established to oversee the sales procedure and that
auctioning process would be carried out with utmost transparency, he said. The Minister also noted
that the government would also take up a follow-up inspection to ensure that the poor-quality rice is
not being used for consumption.
He noted that a specialized agency would divide the rice into two categories - rice affected by molds
and rice not affected by molds. He said the rice affected with molds would be offered to the industrial
sector for bio gas and fuel production, and the rice unaffected by any contaminations would be sold
for animal feed.
The price of the rice would be reportedly decided by a working group.
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The Thai government is estimating losses from selling the stockpiled rice at around 100 billion baht
(around $2.93 billion), Bloomberg quoted the Commerce Minister on July 16.