Urban SustainabilityUrban SustainabilityChallenges, Paradigms and PoliciesChallenges, Paradigms and Policies

George BugliarelloGeorge BugliarelloPolytechnic Institute of NYUPolytechnic Institute of NYU

CitiesCities OriginsOrigins

10,000 years ago (Agriculture)10,000 years ago (Agriculture) DynamicsDynamics

Gradual EvolutionGradual Evolution e.g., Boston, New York, Parise.g., Boston, New York, Paris

Creation Creation ex novo ex novo & Subsequent Evolution& Subsequent EvolutionPurposePurpose

St. Petersburg (Russia)St. Petersburg (Russia) ● window on ● window on EuropeEurope

● ● maritime powermaritime power WashingtonWashington ●● seat of government seat of government BrasiliaBrasilia IsfahanIsfahan

The Urban ExplosionThe Urban Explosion

RuralUrban

1900 2005 2100 Time

50

100

World Population (%)

POPULATION OF THE 11 LARGESTPOPULATION OF THE 11 LARGESTURBAN AGGLOMERATIONSURBAN AGGLOMERATIONS

((MillionsMillions)) 19801980 1994 1994 2015 2015

TokyoTokyo 21.921.9 TokyoTokyo 26.526.5 TokyoTokyo 28.728.7New YorkNew York 15.615.6 New YorkNew York 16.316.3 MumbaiMumbai 27.427.4Mexico CityMexico City 13.913.9 Sao PauloSao Paulo 16.116.1 LagosLagos 24.424.4Sao PauloSao Paulo 12.112.1 Mexico CityMexico City 15.515.5 ShanghaiShanghai 23.423.4ShanghaiShanghai 11.711.7 ShanghaiShanghai 14.714.7 JakartaJakarta 21.221.2OsakaOsaka 10.010.0 MumbaiMumbai 14.514.5 Sao PauloSao Paulo 20.820.8Buenos AiresBuenos Aires 9.99.9 Los AngelesLos Angeles 12.212.2 KarachiKarachi 20.620.6Los AngelesLos Angeles 9.59.5 BeijingBeijing 12.012.0 BeijingBeijing 19.419.4CalcuttaCalcutta 9.09.0 CalcuttaCalcutta 11.511.5 DhakaDhaka 19.019.0BeijingBeijing 9.09.0 SeoulSeoul 11.511.5 Mexico CityMexico City 18.818.8ParisParis 8.9 8.9 JakartaJakarta 11.0 11.0 New YorkNew York 17.6 17.6

131.5131.5 161.8161.8 241.3241.3

Source: World Urbanization Prospects The 1994 Revision (United Nations)

Urban SustainabilityUrban Sustainability::The Intersection of Two The Intersection of Two Enormous ChallengesEnormous Challenges

URBANIZATION SUSTAINABILITY

TREND:

Urban Sustainability:Urban Sustainability:The Two ContextsThe Two Contexts

LOCAL CONTEXTConditions within cities that make them livable indefinitely

GLOBAL CONTEXTImpact of urban phenomenon on global sustainability

The two contexts often clash, but ultimately one implies the other.

Each context requires:Science (“What do we know?”)Technology (“What can we do?”)Policies (“What do we want to do?”)

Examples of Physical And Demographic Examples of Physical And Demographic Impact Of Cities On EnvironmentImpact Of Cities On Environment

CITYRESOURCESRESOURCES POLLUTIONPOLLUTION

FOOTPRINTSFOOTPRINTS

TEMPERATURETEMPERATURE

RAINFALL INFILTRATIONRAINFALL INFILTRATION

BIRTH RATESBIRTH RATES

SustainabilitySustainabilityUrban Risks Urban Risks Global Global

RisksRisks EPIDEMICSEPIDEMICS FINANCIAL DISRUPTIONSFINANCIAL DISRUPTIONS SOCIAL UNRESTSOCIAL UNREST DISASTERSDISASTERS HOSTILITIESHOSTILITIES

The city itself as a critical infrastructure

A socio-A socio-technological-technological-environmental environmental

paradigm paradigm is neededis needed

5 4 3 2 1 TODAY

EARTH BIO

Life

SO

Society

MA

Machines

Humans

Cities

BILLION YEARS AGO

The Biosoma

The Biosoma

PredictabilityPredictabilityBIOBIO SOSO MAMA

ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT

Semi-Semi- Semi-Semi- ~~predictablepredictable Semi to UnpredictableSemi to Unpredictable

predictablepredictable predictablepredictable

The Biosoma ParadigmThe Biosoma ParadigmThe City As A Bio – Social – The City As A Bio – Social –

Machine EntityMachine Entity

Bio

• Humans• Other Species

So

• Organizations• Government• Business• Health Care• Families• Religion• Customs• Trust• . . .

Ma

• Housing• Infrastructure

• Transportation• Utilities• …

• Other machines

Environment

• Geography• Climate• Resources

Biological Social Machine EnvironmentalCapital

Capital Capital CapitalPathologies

Pathologies Failures Threats

Solid Waste Disposal Individuals Jobs Automation

BIO SO MA

Birth Control Rhythms Social PressureContraception

Urban SustainabilityTrade-Offs

SOSO – Environment Policies – Environment PoliciesREACTIVE REACTIVE versus versus PROACTIVEPROACTIVE

High CostHigh Cost Cost-SavingCost-SavingREMEDIATIONREMEDIATION CONSERVATIONCONSERVATION

WaterWaterMaterialMaterialEnergyEnergyENVIRONMENT AS ECONOMIC GOODENVIRONMENT AS ECONOMIC GOODDecarburizationDecarburizationClean waterClean waterRecreationRecreationLAND USE – TRASPORTATIONLAND USE – TRASPORTATIONe.g. Light Rail Transite.g. Light Rail TransitGREEN BUILDINGSGREEN BUILDINGS

Inhabitants/Dwelling in Inhabitants/Dwelling in the U.S.the U.S.

3.2

2.2

1950 Today

Persons dwelling

SO Impacts on MachinesSO Impacts on Machines

Club and Church Attendance Club and Church Attendance in the U.S.in the U.S.

Attendance

Time

1960

MA Impacts on SocietyMA Impacts on Society

Urban Sustainability:Urban Sustainability:THE CITY RESILIENTTHE CITY RESILIENT

HIROSHIMAMANNHEIM - 1695

Urban Sustainability:Urban Sustainability:Resilience

Withstand a major disruption with acceptable degradation

Recover with acceptable cost and time

The Resilience “Triangle”

FunctionalCapabilities

Disruptions Time

DisastersDisasters Biosoma Causes, e.g:Biosoma Causes, e.g:

BIOBIO :: EpidemicsEpidemics SOSO :: WarWar MAMA :: ExplosivesExplosives

Biosoma FailuresBiosoma Failures BIOBIO :: FloodFlood SO:SO: DysfunctionalDysfunctional MA:MA: FailuresFailures

Resilience: Must be biosomicResilience: Must be biosomic

Urban SustainabilityUrban SustainabilityDeveloped Developed vsvs Developing Developing

World CitiesWorld CitiesDeveloped DevelopingL Urban Growth HH Resources LH Demographic Stability LH Population Age LH Tertiary Sector LH Knowledge Resources LH Good Internal Environment LH Consumption LH Ecological Impact L HL “Plasticity” HH Traffic Congestion H

………

L: LowH: High

Urban SustainabilityUrban SustainabilityOverarching Principles and Overarching Principles and Policies for Effective S&T Policies for Effective S&T

InterventionIntervention Political Realism Graduality, Flexibility,

Accessibility and Affordability Coordination Interurban Synergisms

Solutions Solutions less intensiveless intensive in in capitalcapital materials and energymaterials and energy

Solutions Solutions geared to dynamicsgeared to dynamics of rapidly evolving of rapidly evolving citiescities

Solutions Solutions providing accessibility and affordabilityproviding accessibility and affordabilityNew S&T Needed forNew S&T Needed for

processesprocessessystemssystems

materialsmaterials

Graduality, Flexibility, Graduality, Flexibility, Accessibility and Accessibility and

AffordabilityAffordability

NOT THISTHIS

TimeInfr

astr

uctu

re

Time

Coordination To eliminate a large number of

contradictory specific policies, e.g: Subsidies Efficiency versus employment Taxation versus incentives Different jurisdictions

Harmonization of Urban, Regional, National and Global PoliciesUrban needs, goals and policies cannot be addressed only locally

Regional Decentralization Industry & Business Location Commonality of Services Urban-Rural Watershed Partnership

Inter-Urban SynergismsInter-Urban Synergisms• To facilitate innovations for common To facilitate innovations for common

problems by assembling more resources problems by assembling more resources and creating bigger markets.and creating bigger markets.- e.g. - e.g. Joint R&DJoint R&D

Urban vehiclesUrban vehiclesRemanufacturingRemanufacturing

“Virtual Cities”

Transportation Costs Transportation Costs vsvs PerformancePerformance

InvestmentCost($)

Bus Trolleybus

Busway

STREET TRANSIT

System Performance(speed, capacity, comfort)

SEMI-RAPIDTRANSIT

Light Rail

Rail

Regional RailMetros

Auto/Freeway

Some Engineering Design Some Engineering Design FrontiersFrontiers

MAMA Self-diagnoseSelf-diagnose Self-adaptSelf-adapt Self-maintainSelf-maintain Self-repairSelf-repair Self-reproduceSelf-reproduce Self-energizeSelf-energize Self-learnSelf-learn YYYYYY

BIOBIO Guided growthGuided growth Self-recycledSelf-recycled YYYYYY

SOSO Network engineeringNetwork engineering YYYYYY

Some Final Questions Some Final Questions Will urban concentration process abate?

Can it be sustained? Can it be controlled? What are cities’ implications for the

environment? e.g. For regenerative role of nature? For urban nature? Can city adjusts to nature or nature to city?

What are the long-term economic and political implications of urban concentration globally?