14th eumetsat user forum in africa - nwp and disaster risk … of nwp and... · 2016-09-26 · use...

Use of NWP and satellite in Disaster Risk Resilience So thern AfricaRisk Resilience: Southern Africa

Lee-ann Simpson** Contributions from Morne Gijben

and Dr Eugene Poolmanand Dr Eugene Poolman

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SADC Community


Technology in Support of Weather Warnings

Seasonal forecasting 1-3 months: Global Climate Models provide Outlooks

WarningsClimate Models provide Outlooks

Forecasting 1-7 days: NWP provide scientific information on the likely Advisories, Watches and Warnings to beAdvisories, Watches and Warnings to be issued

Nowcasting 1-6 hours: Radar and satellite tools to identify and locate severe weather too s to de t y a d ocate se e e eat ephenomena and the predicted areas under threat in next few hours

Flash flood warnings, storm surgeg , gwarnings, veld fire warnings based on satellite and NWP input into application models such as SARFFG for flash floods


RSMC Pretoria web portal used by 16 SADC NMSs16 SADC NMSs

• Ensemble Prediction Systems from various yglobal centres used for 5-day severe weather outlook

• Limited area modelsLimited area models from RSMC Pretoria and RSMC La Reunion provide deterministic forecastsforecasts

• MSG Satellite based nowcasting products used for nowcasting F t i 16• Forecasters in 16 SADC NMSs trained annually on EPS and NWP


Convective Instability Index (CII)

• Incorporates moisture (Precipitable Water), instability (Lifted Index, p ( p ), y ( ,Mixed K-Index and Mixed Total totals) as well as a trigger mechanism (topography) to forecast the probability of thunderstorms.

• CII is operationally available in SUMO every 15 minutes• Time averaged map - 9 times daily at 06:16 to 15:16 UTC on RSMC

webpage• MSG Satellite channels used:

WV6 2 WV7 3 IR8 7 IR10 8 IR12 0 IR13 4• WV6.2, WV7.3, IR8.7, IR10.8, IR12.0, IR13.4• UM vn8.3 – 12 km horizontal resolution – 19 vertical levels• Resolution 0.1 degrees (12km)• NWP data used:• NWP data used:

• Temperature on different levels• Relative Humidity on different levels


Convective Instability Index (CII)


Rapidly developing ThunderstormsThe objectives of RDT are twofold:

The identification, monitoring and tracking of intense convective system cloudscloudsThe detection of rapidly developing convective cells

• Available every 15-minutes over SA and SADC• Satellite channels used:

VIS0 6 WV6 2 WV7 3 IR8 7 IR10 8 IR12 0 IR13 4• VIS0.6, WV6.2, WV7.3, IR8.7, IR10.8, IR12.0, IR13.4• UM vn8.3 – 12 km horizontal resolution – 19 vertical levels• Resolution 0.1 degrees (12km) used in software• NWP data used:

• 2m temperature• 2m relative humidity• 2m dew point temperature• Surface pressure• Surface pressure• Temperature on different levels• Relative Humidity on different levels• Tropopause temperature


• Geopotential at surface• Altitude model

RDT


Convective Rainfall Rate (CRR)• CRR product developed in the SAF NWC context, is a Nowcasting tool that

provides information on convective rainfall, and stratiform associated to ti i f ll f MSG SEVIRI h lconvection rainfall from MSG-SEVIRI channels.

• Available every 15-minutes over SA and SADC

• Satellite channels used:• VIS0.6, WV6.2, IR10.8

• UM vn8.3 – 12 km horizontal resolution – 19 vertical levelsResolution 0 1 degrees (12km)• Resolution 0.1 degrees (12km)

• NWP data used:• 2m temperature• 2m dew point temperaturep p• Surface pressure• Temperature on different levels• Relative Humidity on different levels• Wind velocity at various levels


• Wind velocity at various levels• Geopotential on different levels

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UFA2016 NWP&SAT DRR

Flash Flood Warnings: The SARFFG hydrometeorological modele S G yd o eteo o og ca ode

• Southern Africa Region Flash Flood Guidance system part of a global WMO program

• Provides a nowcast of flash flood threat for next 6 hours (satellite based

SAFFG Flash Flood Guidance

Model (rainfall) and outlook for flash flood potential for 24 hours (NWP forecasts)

• Data input: hourly satellite rainfall estimation and NWP• Hydromet modelling of 20000 small river basins over 9 countries:

– Use satellite rainfall estimation to determine hourly rainfall field

Rain estimation by

radar and satellite

– determine soil moisture content– flash flood guidance (FFG = amount of rain required in each basin for flash

floods) for next 6 hours– Combine with NWP to predict flash flood outlook for next 24 hours

• Provide guidance to forecasters to use with other info for potential flashS il i t • Provide guidance to forecasters to use with other info for potential flash flood warnings

Soil moisture and FFG model

FFG and FFT products


UFA2016 NWP&SAT DRR

Hail ForecastHail Forecast• Provides a forecast of the maximum hail size that can be expected on

the ground.F SA H l f t f 48 h• For SA: Hourly forecasts for 48 hours

• For SADC: 10, 12 and 14 UTC forecast (due to computation time)• UM vn8.3 – 12 km horizontal resolution (0.1 degrees)• LTI for SA – Regrid to 0.5 degrees (due to computation time)g g ( p )• LTI for SADC - Regrid to 1.0 degree (due to computation time)• Raw model data from UM

• Temperature on 19 levelsRelative humidity on 19 levels• Relative humidity on 19 levels

• Wind components on 19 levels• Surface temperature• Surface dew pointp• Convective rainfall (For precipitation mask)

• Vertical profiles of liquid water content, updraft velocity and in-cloud temperatures are calculated.



UFA2016 NWP&SAT DRR

Lightning Threat Index (LTI)• Provides a forecast of where lightning can be expected (probability of• Provides a forecast of where lightning can be expected (probability of

lightning occurrence)• Day 1 and day 2 forecasts available over SA and SADC.• UM vn8.3 – 12 km horizontal resolution (0.1 degrees)• LTI for SA – Regrid to 0.25 degrees (due to computation time)• LTI for SADC - Regrid to 1.5 degrees (due to computation time)• Raw model data from UM

• Temperature at 1.5 metersTemperature at 1.5 meters• Surface pressure• Geopotential heights on 19 levels• Relative humidity on 19 levels

T t 19 l l• Temperature on 19 levels• Fields calculated from raw model data

• Most unstable CAPE (1-6 km above ground level)• Lifted Index• Mean Precipitable Water (850 – 300 hPa)• Mean and minimum Relative humidity (3-6 km above ground

level)• Equivalent potential temperature lapse rate (850 400 hPa and• Equivalent potential temperature lapse rate (850-400 hPa and

700–500 hPa)• Mean temperature (850 – 700 hPa)

Lightning Threat Index


UFA2016 NWP&SAT DRR

14th eumetsat user forum in africa - nwp and disaster risk … of nwp and... · 2016-09-26 · use...

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