14 February 2013The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues Flood warnings continue in some New South Wales and Queensland river systems as the

flood peak associated with rainfall from ex-tropical cyclone ‘Oswald’ moves downstream.

An emergency bushfire warning is current for shires in the south west region of Western Australia after lightning ignited several fires in the region.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators remain at neutral levels which are expected to persist well into the 2013 autumn.

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased this week by 363 gigalitres (GL) and are at 70 per cent of total capacity.

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$339 a tonne in the week ending 11 February 2013, down by 2.3 per cent from US$347 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$302 a tonne for the week ending 13 February 2012, down by 2.9 per cent from US$311 a tonne from in the previous week.

According to the Brazil Sugar Industry Association, Brazil exported around 2.3 million tonnes of sugar (raw value) in January 2013, more than double the volume exported in January 2012.

Total Australian milk production was largely unchanged in the first six months of 2012–13, compared with the same period in 2011–12. Milk production increased by around 1.3 per cent in Victoria and was largely unchanged in New South Wales and Tasmania. In contrast, milk production in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia fell by 4.7 per cent, 2.7 per cent, and around 1 per cent, respectively.

Outlook 2013 conference – registrations openRegistrations are now open for Australia’s premier agricultural economics and

commodity forecasting event. Details at www.daff.gov.au/abares/outlook

For more information or to subscribe, email ClimateUpdate@daff.gov.au

1. Climate1.1. Notable events Lightning has triggered a series of bushfires across the south west region of Western Australia. An

emergency warning is current for Greenbushes, Hester Brook, Wandillup, Maranup and Southampton in the shires of Donnybrook-Balingup, Bridgetown-Greenbushes and Nannup.

Category C disaster assistance has extended to the South Burnett, Gladstone and Scenic Rim Regional Councils in Queensland, bringing the total number of Queensland Local Government Areas receiving Category C disaster assistance to 14. Meaning that enterprises may be eligible for grants up to $25,000 for recovery efforts to pay for clean up and restoration costs arising out of direct damage caused by ex-tropical cyclone Oswald and associated rainfall and flooding.

Flood warnings continue in some river systems in New South Wales and Queensland as the flood peak associated with rainfall from ex-tropical cyclone ‘Oswald’ moves downstream.

In New South Wales, moderate to major flood warnings are current for the Narran River and the Barwon River at Mundindi and Mogil Mogil. Minor flood warnings are current for the Culgoa and Bokhara rivers and the Darling River at Collarenebri and Walgett.

In Queensland, a moderate to major flood warning is current for the Balonne River and a moderate warning is current for the Lower Weir River.

Feral pig numbers are expected to rise in flood-affected regions in eastern Queensland, the floods having created favourable breeding conditions for a population already boosted as a result of previous good seasons. Hot and dry conditions in South Australia have led to increase in dingo and wild dog incursions as they seek food and water.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain at neutral levels, it is likely that this neutral state will continue well into the southern hemisphere autumn. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO have persisted at neutral levels since mid to late 2012, while tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have remained steady over the last fortnight after several months of gradual cooling (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 12 February 2013).

1.2. Rainfall this weekFor the week ending 13 February 2013, rain fell across eastern New South Wales and much of northern Australia but the ‘monsoonal’ rains have yet to appear. The highest rainfall total for the week was 220 millimetres at Victoria Sugar Mill, near Ingham in Queensland. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 13 February 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 13/02/2013

1.3. Temperature anomalies this weekSpatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their respective long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 February 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 13/02/2013

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 February 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 13/02/2013

1.4. Rainfall outlook

The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 14 to 21 February 2013

©Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 14/02/2013

2. Water

2.1. Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 363 gigalitres (GL) and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2485 GL less than this time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 14 February 2013 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$339 a

tonne in the week ending 11 February 2013, down by 2.3 per cent from US$347 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$302 a tonne for the week ending 13 February 2013, down by 2.9 per cent from US$311 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$649 a tonne in the week ending 12 February 2013, down by 1.4 per cent from US$658 a tonne in the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US89.6 cents a pound in the week ending 13 February 2013, down by 1.5 per cent from the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US18.2 cents a pound in the week ending 13 February 2013, around 2 per cent lower than in the previous week.

According to the Brazil Sugar Industry Association, Brazil exported around 2.3 million tonnes of sugar (raw value) in January 2013, more than double the volume exported in January 2012. Brazil exported 23.4 million tonnes of sugar (raw value) in the period April 2012 to January 2013, 3.7 per cent more than the same period a year earlier.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $541 a tonne in the week ending 13 February 2013, largely unchanged from the previous week.

The wholesale prices of fruit were generally lower in the week ending 8 February 2013, with the prices of pineapple (smoothleaf), blueberry and avocado (hass) lower but the prices of watermelon (seedless) and banana (cavendish) slightly higher.

The wholesale prices of vegetables were generally higher in the week ending 8 February 2013, with the prices of cauliflower, beans (round), broccoli and onions (brown) higher but the price of tomatoes (field gourmet) lower.

Total Australian milk production was largely unchanged in the first six months of 2012–13, compared with the same period in 2011–12. Milk production increased by around 1.3 per cent in Victoria and was largely unchanged in New South Wales and Tasmania. In contrast, milk production in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia fell by 4.7 per cent, 2.7 per cent, and around 1 per cent, respectively.

The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) increased by 2 per cent to 332 cents a kilogram in the week ending 8 February 2013.

In the week ending 8 February 2013, the lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2-4) declined by 5 per cent in South Australia and around 1 per cent in New South Wales to average 344 and 371 cents per kilogram, respectively. In Victoria, the indicator price was largely unchanged at 351 cents per kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price rose by 4 per cent in Western Australia to average 325 cents per kilogram.

The Australian Eastern Market Indicator price for wool fell by around 1 per cent in the week ending 7 February 2013 to 1128 cents a kilogram clean. The total number of bales offered at sale increased by 34 per cent compared with previous week.

3.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable pricesWeekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market

3.3. Selected world indicator prices

3.4. Crop indicator prices

3.5. Livestock indicator prices

3.6. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

4. Data attribution

ClimateBureau of Meteorology

Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead

Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml

ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/ awap /

WaterNew South Wales

New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4Queensland

Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au

seqwater: http://seqwater.com.auSouth Australia

SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm

South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/

Victoria

Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.auWater trading

Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au

CommoditiesFruit and vegetables

Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.auMutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspxCattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets

Canola

Weekly Times: hardcopy

Dairy Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/Results/HistoricalData.aspx