137a-u12realignment

8/10/2019 137a-U12Realignment

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UNIT 12:

PARTY SYSTEM CHANGE:REALIGNMENT AND THE

FREEZING OF PARTY SYSTEMSReserve readings:

Flanagan and Dalton, Inglehart and Flanagan, Shamir,Mair


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Guiding Questions

What is realignment?

How do we determine if realignment is

occurring?

What do we mean when we say that party

systems are frozen?

Are party systems frozen?

What challenges do political parties face fromrealignment?


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Realignment

Flanagan and Dalton 1984; 1990

Changes in the salience of certain cleavages changes partisan alignments

Weaker party attachment creates volatility

How do cleavages weaken?

Generational change

Younger generations do not share the same intensity on a given issueas older generations.

Realignment is cyclical.

Differentiation of party appeals at first, then convergence over time assalience of cleavage wanes.

Expects volatility to increase prior to realignment, level off after and thenslowly increase.

What types of events can restructure partisan alignments?

Critical junctures.


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End of the Cold War: Critical Juncture?

Ware 1996

Speculates about what a critical juncture might look like Suggests the end of the Cold War has shaped political

competition in some systems.

Cold War anchored several advanced democratic parties systems(e.g. Italy)

Notes: 1) Changes in vote share of governing parties. 2) Rise of new parties.

But also suggests that these changes may be 1) Temporary for governing parties; retrenchment at subsequent

elections 2) Effective in only a small number of cases 3) Temporary for new parties; difficult to gain a foothold within the

system


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Globalization: Critical Juncture?

Kriesi 2008 Speculates that globalization has fostered a new

cleavage. Divides those that benefit from globalization (integration) from

those who do not (demarcation)

Integration/demarcation cleavage is a result of theweakening of the states ability to control changes ineconomics, politics, and culture. Result: Political parties stoke anxieties amongst those who

lose from globalization. Manifests itself in the rise of populist right parties.

Kriesi 2009

Further research suggests that this new cleavage is notas pervasive as previously thought.

Has not eclipsed other traditional cleavages in most countries.


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Postmaterialism: Critical

Juncture? Inglehart 1977, 1987

Priorities in advanceddemocracies shifting from amaterialist towards apostmaterialist phase.

Advanced democraciesexhibit concerns for socio-tropic concerns rather thanownership of the means ofproduction.

Voters place priority on needsthat are in short supply.

Younger groups have differentneeds than older cohorts.

Relative affluence in postwarera shifts outlook.

Voters retain values structurethroughout their lives

Although changes take timeto manifest themselves in the


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Postmaterialism and the Left

Inglehart 1987

Posits that postmaterialism places a particular strain on parties of the left.

Absence of total war facilitates shift to postmaterialism.

Policies of state intervention and protection of the welfare state pass thepoint of diminishing returns.

As societies become more equal the coalition in favor of furtherredistribution declines.

Left is a victim of their own success

Result:

Splits on the left:

Sense of community and quality of life issues trump issues of class formiddle and upper class voters (shift to the Greens)

Counter-response on the right

Restoring order can prompt a shift from working c lass voters on the leftto parties of the right (shift to Conservatives, Christian Democrats or farright)


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Evaluating Postmaterialism

Flanagan 1987

Libertarianism and

postmaterialism are similar, but

materialism should be more

tightly defined.

Focus on voters privileging a

stable economy, lowering

prices, etc.

Inglehart ignores the new right

Authoritarianism has also

resulted from postmaterialism

Intolerance towards

outsiders, strong support

for law and order,

patriotism, etc.

These voters areshifting from the old


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Are Party Systems Frozen?

What does the presence of new cleavagessuggest about Lipset and Rokkansfreezinghypothesis?Theories of realignment would argue that the

system has changedBut the jury is out about whether or not this

negates the freezing hypothesis.

No consensus.

Questions include:1) How would we test the freezing hypothesis?2) What constitutes the freezing of party

systems?3) What constitutes the thawing of party

systems?


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Shamir 1984

What does it mean to say that party systems are frozen? Possible explanations:

1) stability in party support at the ballot box

2) persistence of a given set of parties and party organizations

3) persistence in mass loyalties to parties.

Definition of freezing- The party system is stable if it tends or is able to recover its

original position or steady motion when disturbed by exteriorforces or interventions

Freezing does not mean no change at all. But rather- stability means then that the party system is not

affectednot in any essential way and only temporarilybyoutside factors


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Shamir 1984

Examines elections in 19 systems both within and outside Europe.

Includes Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, and the US

Time frame includes all elections where there is an identifiable partysystem.

Looks at several systemic variables including: 1) party system instability (volatility)

2) party system fragmentation

3) ideological polarization

Includes systemic variables and a variable to account forrandomness.

If systems are frozen stability at time t+1 should be dependent uponstability at time t.

If systems are thawing stability at time t+1 may be dependent uponrandom factors from previous elections.

Finds that most party systems are not thawing

Argues that they were never frozen to begin with.


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Mair 2001

Debate over whether party system change is a function of 1) Cleavage change (are cleavage patterns persisting?)

2) Party instability (are traditional parties remaining?) Both speak to different concepts of freezing (and both could be

correct)

What does it mean to suggest that party systems arefrozen? 1) Cleavage system is frozen into place.

Same social cleavages coupled with the same parties.

2) Freezing of political parties competing May or may not be associated with the previous cleavage structure.

3) Freezing of party systems Patterns of inter-party competition are frozen.

The freezing hypothesis is only realistic when applied to the

third category.


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Mair 2001

If patterns of competition within a system arestable the system is frozen. Voters are choosing not only between parties but also

between governments.As long as the patterns of competition remain the same the

identities of the parties can change and the system canremain stable.

Stability appears to be the norm.

Although some party systems are more predictable thanothers. Predictability is becoming rarer.

Political institutions can facilitate freezing. But institutional reform could lead to further thawing


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Conclusions

Is the left-right cleavage still the

most relevant to understanding

modern politics? Yes.

Are the same parties fighting

today that were fifty years ago?

In most cases, yes.

Are patterns of governmentchanging frequently?

No.

But some cases fluctuate

more than others.

Have cleavage structures

changed?

Consensus appears to beyes.

Are there new parties on the

scene?

Certainly.

Are patterns of governancechanging?

Perhaps

But some cases exhibit

more predictability than

others.

FREEZING THAWING


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Next Unit

Theme: Dealignment

Readings:

Dalton and Wattenberg CH 2-4Reserves: Mair et al. pgs. 145-178

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