1327 - ftcs and farmer tef demonstration and results 2012

2012 FTCs and farmers tef technology demonstrationOverview of results

May 2013

Agenda

A. Overview of results at federal levelB. Breakdown of results by regionC. Supplemental analyses

2

3

Newly-scaled up tef technologies, particularly row planting and transplanting, demonstrate yield improvements, with an average yield increase of ~70% over the national average

Average yield by planting method Quintals/hectare • Data was collected from

~15,800 validating farmers (and some control farmer groups) to determine the results of new tef technologies

• For the 14,605 farmers, average yields for row planting and transplanting increased 70% from national average (20.9 versus 12.6 qtls/ha)

• As the chart shows, there is still much work to be done in properly managing transplanting to realize potential yield gains

17

12

16

21222122

1820

2323

Amharan = 4,637

SNNPn = 3,480

Oromian = 6,002

Tigrayn = 486

N/A

BroadcastingRow plantingTransplanting

Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013)Note: Includes data from 14,605 farmers (omitted error/outlier data from 15,790 total collected)

4

Distribution of yield data shows that 30% of all validating farmers surveyed experienced yield increase between 20 and 80% over the national average


Distribution of Validating Farmers’ yieldsFrequency of yield increase (as % of total data set)

476

810

8

1311

7

150 - 200%

125 - 150%

Over 200%

100 - 125%

80 - 100%

60 - 80%40 - 60%20 - 40% 10 - 20%Less than 10%

27~30% of farmers saw a 20 – 80% yield increase

Farmers who broadcasted, used high seed rates, or may have experienced challenges

with new technologies

~20% of farmers saw a 100 – 200% yield increase (~60% of this

group row planted)

5

Top-performing woredas across the four regions have demonstrated success in adopting the new technologies, reaching maximum yields higher than a 400% yield increase

Average and maximum yields for row planting and transplanting farmersQuintal/hectare

36

36

35

35

35

35

33

33

32

31H/Abote 53

Tahaty-Maichew 56

47

Lume 68

Maraka

Kuxha

68

65

Alefa 42

Dabat

EnebsieSar Midir 58

Chilga 53

67

Libo KemkemAMHARA

SNNP

OROMIA

SNNP

TIGRAY

OROMIA

68 quintals/hectare versus the national

average of 12.5 quintals/hectare


6

Data indicates that validating farmers’ seed rate usage varies by planting method, with the highest rates used in broadcasting to the least amount of seed used in transplanting

Average seed rate and yields by planting type across regionsYield (quintal/hectare), Seed rate (kg/hectare)

4

1011

302222

1513

25

20

15

10

5

0

30

25

20

15

10

5

0TransplantingRow plantingBroadcastingNational

average

• While this does not imply causation, there appears to be an inverse relationship between planting type and seed rate practices of the validating farmers

• Overall, the average seed rate has dropped significantly from traditional practices of 30-50 kg/ha to an average of 8.8 kg/ha across all planting types (includes broadcasting farmers as well)

• Use of Quncho variety appears to be on the rise, with 92% of validating farmers choosing it over other options (local varieties, Cross-37, Yedega, etc.)

Seed rateAvg yield


7

Fertilizer application rates appear to match recommendations for DAP (average application rate of 99.5 kg/ha), yet fall slightly below recommendations on Urea (88.4 kg/ha)

Average DAP and Urea application rates by regionKg/hectare

Key takeaways on DAP and Urea utilization by farmers: • Urea use is highly variable,

much more than DAP: the standard deviation for Urea is 24.6 kg/hectare versus 3.8 for DAP, indicating the that farmer use of DAP is more consistent

• Application rates are fairly agnostic of planting method: for each planting method, the average application rates remain similar

991009991868890

Amharan = 4,037

SNNPn = 3,051

Oromian = 4,943

Tigrayn = 304

N/A

DAPUrea

4.1 21.9 4.4 25.4 1.3 26.5 6.5 21.5

X Standard deviation

Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013)Note: Includes data from 12,335 farmers (omitted error/outlier fertilizer data from 15,790 total collected)

8

A high-level view of planting time indicates that most farmers observed ‘traditional’ planting times, though farmers that planted earlier saw significant yield increases

6961626162627286

668089

0

50

100

June Week 2

SeptWeek 1

July Week 4

AugustWeek 1

August Week 2

August Week 3

AugustWeek 4

59

JulyWeek 3

July Week 2

July Week 1

JuneWeek 4

June Week 3

Average productivity increase by planting time% productivity increase (compared to national average)

0.3%0.1% 2%0.8% 16%5% 19%24% 4%7% 1%4%

Perc

ent o

f fa

rmer

s

Key takeaways Planting time of validating farmers followed

standard practices, with ~60% of farmers planting in mid-July to early August

Though a small sample size, there seems to be a strong productivity increase for farmers who planted earlier, in the 3 and 4th weeks of June

Standard planting period

Next steps for exploration Early planting time, when is coincides with

rainfall, is a topic to be further explored with farmers and on FTC plots

EIAR and RARIs, with support from ATA, will conduct formal research projects to determine the impact of planting 2, 3 or 4 weeks early


Largely driven by transplanting

9

20.118.3

15.5

8.4

12.6

+60%

Average yields by experimental plot across regionsQuintal/hectare

X.X Standard deviation

Avg yield qt/ha

Planting type

National Average for

2012

Broadcast by hand

Broadcast by machine

Row plant Transplant

Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-50 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7

Fertilizer type none DAP +Urea

DAP + Urea

DAP +Urea

Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho

8.16.9 9.4 11.4

In ~1,100 FTC trials, it can be observed that factors such as reduced seed rate, planting in rows, and use of DAP and Urea can each contribute to increasing yields

• Findings indicate that significant yield

improvement results from new technologies such as row planting,

transplanting, and reduced seed rate

• Across the 1,100 FTCs, yields were recorded for each experimental plot

that was designed to test either planting

method, seed rate, seed variety, or fertilizer use

Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013); CSA 2012

10

20.118.3

15.514.913.912.012.6

+4%+7%

+18%+10%

+16%

Average yields by experimental plot across regionsQuintal/hectare

Planting type


2012

Broadcast by hand

Broadcast by hand

Broadcast by hand



Seed rate (kg/ha)

30-50 30-50 5-10 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7

Fertilizer type

DAP + Urea DAP +Urea

DAP + Urea

DAP +Urea

DAP +Urea

DAP +Urea

Seed type Local Quncho Quncho Quncho Quncho Quncho

Taking a closer look at each variable, it appears that switching to Quncho and row planting are the largest drivers of productivity increase


Agenda

A. Overview of results at federal levelB. Breakdown of results by regionC. Supplemental analyses

11

12

AMHARA: overview of data collected

Source: 2012 Data from Regional, Zonal and Woreda administration staff (collected Feb-April 2013)

Farmer data overview

Average yield 20.47

Standard deviation 9.65

Average productivity increase 62%

Count of farmers Raw Cleaned

Farmers 4,958 4,637

Gender split

Male 4,373 95%

Female 685 4%

Geographic scope within region (as reported)

Count of zones 10

Count of woredas 85

31%

Broadcasting (machine)1%Broadcasting

(hand)

Transplanting

Row planting48%

19%

Distribution of planting type% of total farmers (from raw data)

13

AMHARA: input use, yields achieved, and planting time


Inputs use of Validating Farmers

Planting time of Validating Farmers

Highest-producing woredas (based on Validating Farmers)

Average input use by planting method Kg/hectare

10

889994

9

99 96100

2

Row plantingn = 2,238

Broadcastingn = 1,446

Transplantingn = 889

Seed

DAP

UreaAverage and maximum farmer yieldsKg/hectare (average and max by woreda)

36

35

32

31

30

Enebsie Sar midir 58

Alefa

Dabat 67

Libo Kemkem 68

53Chilga

42

AverageMax

Average yield based on planting time% productivity increase (compared to national average)

68194136455671947285105104

100

August Week 3

200

0Sept

Week 1AugustWeek 4

August Week 2

AugustWeek 1

July Week 4

JulyWeek 3

July Week 2

July Week 1

JuneWeek 4

June Week 3

June Week 2

14

18.016.3

14.5

8.0

12.6

+124%

Average yields by experimental plots across Amhara FTCsQuintal/hectare


Avg yield qt/ha

Planting type


2012

Broadcast by hand



Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7


DAP + Urea

DAP +Urea


8.15.0 8.9 10.4

AMHARA: FTC demonstration plot results


15

OROMIA: overview of data collected



Average yield 21.26



Count of farmers and FTCs Raw Cleaned

Farmers 6,515 6,002

Gender split

Male 6,198 95%

Female 292 5%


Count of zones N/A

Count of woredas 48

15%Broadcasting

57%Transplanting

Row planting

16%


16

OROMIA: input use, yields achieved, and planting time






4810

1009999 859085




Urea

DAP

SeedAverage and maximum farmer yieldsKg/hectare (average and max by woreda)

32

30

30

28

26Dawoo 38

A/Nagale 65

Gimbichuu 61

H/Abote 53

Lume 68

AverageMax


9262616467677290

667551

2050

August Week 3

August Week 2

AugustWeek 1

July Week 4

JulyWeek 3

July Week 2

100

0Sept

Week 1AugustWeek 4

July Week 1

JuneWeek 4

June Week 3

June Week 2

17

20.118.1

15.2

8.1

12.6

+148%

Average yields by experimental plots across Oromia FTCsQuintal/hectare


Avg yield qt/ha

Planting type


2012

Broadcast by hand



Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7


DAP + Urea

DAP +Urea


8.46.4 9.5 11.1

OROMIA: FTC demonstration plot results


18

SNNP: overview of data collected



Average yield 20.72




Farmers 3,766 3,480

Gender split

Male 3,061 81%

Female 124 3%


Count of zones N/A

Count of woredas 38

11%

65%Row planting

1%

Broadcasting(hand) Broadcasting (machine)

13%Transplanting


19

SNNP: input use, yields achieved, and planting time






41211

100100100838783




Urea

DAP


33

33

27

27

27Bona Zuria 33

Maraka 47

Gombera 30

Kuxha 70

Dalocha 69

AverageMax


686367666972725234178

-37144

-200

200

0

SeptWeek 1

AugustWeek 4

August Week 3

August Week 2

AugustWeek 1

July Week 4

JulyWeek 3

July Week 2

July Week 1

JuneWeek 4

June Week 3

June Week 2

June planting consists of only 5 farmers

20

22.721.0

17.0

8.2

12.6

+177%

Average yields by experimental plots across SNNP FTCsQuintal/hectare


Avg yield qt/ha

Planting type


2012

Broadcast by hand



Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7


DAP + Urea

DAP +Urea


7.27.8 8.9 12.5

SNNP: FTC demonstration plot results


21

TIGRAY: overview of data collected



Average yield 20.55




Farmers 551 486

Gender split

Male 410 74%

Female 54 10%


Count of zones N/A

Count of woredas 11

4%

62%

Row planting

5%Transplanting 4%

Broadcasting(hand) Broadcasting (machine)


22

TIGRAY: input use, yields achieved, and planting time






7813

10098100 9192100




Urea

DAP


32

30

30

28

26Tahtay Koraro 38

Weri-Leke 65

Medebay Zana 61

Adwa 53

Tahaty- Maichew 68

AverageMax


367449

-2529100

0

SeptWeek 1

AugustWeek 4

August Week 3

-100August Week 2

AugustWeek 1

July Week 4

JulyWeek 3

July Week 2

July Week 1

75

JuneWeek 4

-17

June Week 3

67

June Week 2

7636N/A N/A

Includes only 2 farmers

Includes only 2 farmers

23

18.918.716.5

11.812.6

+60%

Average yields by experimental plots across Tigray FTCsQuintal/hectare


Avg yield qt/ha

Planting type


2012

Broadcast by hand



Seed rate (kg/ha) 30-40 5-10 5-10 0.5-0.7


DAP + Urea

DAP +Urea


9.511.0 10.5 11.8

TIGRAY: FTC demonstration plot results


Takeaways from 2012 farmer and FTC data analysis that should inform ATA and RBoA planning and execution for 2013 and 2013 tef planting seasons

24

Takeaways to inform 2013 and 2014 intervention planning and execution

• The benefits of optimal fertilizer application rates should be better disseminated to farmers via trainings and materials, particularly for Urea

• More intensive training on transplanting management practices should be provided to farmers given the volatility in yields observed in 2012

• FTCs should be encouraged to conduct demonstrations to test for specific variables’ impact on yield (e.g., planting 2-3 weeks earlier, reduced seed rates of 5/10/15/ kg per ha, pelleted Urea)

• FTC yields indicate significant yield increases due to use of Quncho with 90% of farmers in these trials using Quncho; should explore further support for Quncho while also considering other improved varieties

25

Includes 15,790 validating farmers’ data

8% of data was omitted as inaccurate or incomplete

45% (33% + 12%) of validating farmers’ yields were between 20 and 40 quintals per hectare

Overview of data collected: yield distribution for 15,790 validating farmers and 1,107 FTCs


40 to 60

40

0

20

1%

60+

3%

30 to 40

12%

20 to 30

33%

10 to 20

40%

Less than 10

8%

Distribution of Validating Farmers’ yieldsFrequency of yield increase (as % of total data set)

Covers 1,107 FTCs with an average of 9.6 experimental data plots per FTC

4% of the data was omitted as inaccurate or incomplete

Distribution of yields is wider given trials included many variables

40

20

040+

2%

30 to 40

7%

20 to 30

20%

10 to 20

38%

5 to 10

18%

Less than 5

11%

Distribution of FTC yield per experimental plotFrequency of yield increase (as % of total data set)

Quintals / hectare

Quintals / hectare

26

Overview of data collected: basics



average yield 20.86std dev 12.38bell curve upper bound 58.00

average productivity increase 66%

Count of farmersAmhara 4,958 31%Oromia 6,515 41%SNNP 3,766 24%Tigray 551 3%Total farmers 15,790

Gender splitMale 14346 95%Female 685 5%

20%1%

17% 61%

Broadcasting (machine)

Row plantingTransplanting

Broadcasting (hand)

Distribution of planting type% of total farmers

1327 - ftcs and farmer tef demonstration and results 2012

Technology