13.02, nikiforovich — lecture on ues
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SD Course in Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, 12-23 Febraury 2006TRANSCRIPT
Erasmus Mundus Action 4 project“Promoting European Education in Sustainable Development”
TEMPUS Joint European Project_ 25163_ 2004 “Bridging the gap between University and businesses”
Professor Eugene NikiforovichHead of Department Institute of HydromechanicsNational Academy of Sciences of Ukraine National Technical University of Ukraine “KPI”
Ukrainian Energy System
Course SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTNTUU “KPI”, 12-23 February 2007
Content• Foreword: Towards a sustainable energy future• Modern tendencies in the energy system development:
Hydrogen Economy• Ukraine’s Positioning on the International Energy
Markets
• Forecasted Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine’s Fuel-and-Energy Demand
• Electric Power Balance• Conclusions
Hydrogen Economy)\
Solar-Hydrogen Energy Cycle
Ukraine’s Positioning on the International Energy Markets
Disadvantages:• shortage of explored reserves of domestic natural gas and oil, and of
nuclear fuel of domestic production;• no diversification of the energy supply sources;• domestic hydropower generation capacities have neared the end of their
potential;• high technogenic burden on the environment;• unsatisfactory technical condition of some energy facilities, including energy
transportation systems.
Advantages:• sufficient natural reserves of coal and nuclear fuel components, such as
uranium and zirconium;• excessive capacities for oil-and-gas transportation, and electric power
exports;• advantageous geographical and geopolitical position of the country;• well-developed energy infrastructure;• highly-skilled human resources.
Overview of Primary Energy Resources Utilization and Energy Consumption by End Users
Indices of Energy Dependence for Ukraine and Other Countries, in 2000 - 2004, (%)
80,161,4 68,9 74,3
50,0 55,935,9
90,0 82,197,9
34,1
64,7 71,6
33,3 26,5
57,7
23,811,6
60,7
-8,9-27,2
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Spai
n
Fran
ce
Finl
and
Swed
en
Engl
and
Irela
nd Italy
Luxe
mbu
rg
Net
herla
nds
Aus
tria
Port
ugal
Esto
nia
Cze
chia
Hun
gary
Rom
ania
Pola
nd
Ukr
aine
Primary Energy Consumption Pattern: Ukraine, EU-15, the U.S.A. and the global average
100%100%100%100%Total
7%6%4%14%Hydro- and other renewable energy sources
8%15%17%7%Uranium
23%16%19%23%Coal
38%41%19%35%Oil
24%22%41%21%Natural gas
U.S.A.EU-15UkraineGlobal average
Specific Annual Primary Energy Consumption in the World, tons of standard fuel per capita
(source: International Energy Agency)The energy supply level of a country is normally described by a specific primary
energy consumption rate expressed in tons of standard fuel per capita
4,36,2
3,61,8
0,51,2
6,46,3
15,6
The
U.S
.
Japa
n
EU-1
5
Chi
na
Indi
a
Turk
ey
East
ern
Euro
pe CIS
Ukr
aine
3,63,44,6Eastern EuropeЄвропаЄвропа
0,50,50,3India
1,81,61,3Turkey
1,21,00,8China
3,7
5,1
6,2
6,2
15,5
2000
4,37,1Ukraine
6,27,5CIS
6,45,7EU 15 states
6,35,2Japan
15,614,2The U.S.
20051990
Specific Annual Power Consumption in the World and Ukraine, in kWh per capita
(source: International Energy Agency)the overall technological level of a country is indirectly characterized by a
specific power consumption rate that is expressed in kWh per capita
12792
77276813
1170485
1592
34584731
3789
U.S
.
Japa
n
EU
-15
Chi
na
Indi
a
Turk
ey
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
CIS
Ukr
aine
2005
GDP Energy Content in the World, kg of standard fuel per USD
(source: Key World Energy Statistics, 2003, 2004)Overall fuel-and-energy efficiency of an economy is normally described
by a primary energy consumption to GDP ratio (that is known as a
GDP energy content)
0,360,43
0,20 0,200,26 0,26 0,24 0,23
0,330,40
0,34
0,43
0,30
0,39
0,26
0,84
0,50
0,33 0,34
0,24
0,34
0,89
U.S
.
Can
ada
Aus
tria
Den
mar
k
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Spai
n
U.K
.
Sw
eden
Fin
land
Pol
and
Cze
chia
Hun
gary
Lith
uani
a
Tur
key
Ukr
aine
Rus
sia
Bel
arus
Aust
ralia
Chi
na
Japa
n
Glo
bal a
vera
ge
Forecasted Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine’s Fuel-and-Energy Demand
Forecast for GDP Growth Rates, UAH billion (price base of 2005)
1059,3
1397,2
691,5809,8
929,4
1792,3
791,9
575,1
1286,2
1056,9
852,4677,7
523,7
413,9* 582,5476,2
200
500
800
1100
1400
1700
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
UA
H b
illio
n (p
rice
base
of 2
005)
Best Case
Base Case
Worst Case
Forecasted Consumption of Primary Energy and the Structural and Technological Energy Saving
Indices for the Period until 2030, mln tons of standard fuel (Base Case Scenario)
200,6 213,8 227,0 244,3302,7
66,4109,8
137,5
198,1
25,3
54,4
120,3
7,9
2005* 2010 2015 2020 2030
Structural energy saving
Technological energy saving
Consumption of primary energy
Ukraine Power Industry
• Installed capacity of electric power• Electric power production by EPS• Main power generating capacities • Electric power consumption • Structure of power resources in electric
power and heat production by EPS• NPS of Ukraine• Electric Power Balance
91793
34269235
948
15296
4707
26444 25035
169825
10095 128935750
50358
21040
93239
31900
Industry Agriculturalsector
Transportsector
Constructionsector
Communaland
householdconsumers
Other non-industrial
consumers
Population Powerconsumed for
itstransmission
throughnetworks
2005 2030
Forecast of Electric Power Consumption by Consumer Groups (million kW/hour)
Structure of Generating Capacity of Ukrainian Power Plants
(base-case scenario)
TPP and CHPP30.1
57.8%
HPP and HPSP
4.79.1%
NPP13.8
26.6%
Local plants and
other facilities
3.46.5%
TPP and CHPP42.2
47.6%HPP and
HPSP10.5
11.9%
NPP29.5
33.3%
Local plants and
other facilities
6.37.1%
2005 2030
Development of Electric Power Generation (billion kWh)
8,6 9,9 11,6 12,9 15,512,3 12,5 14,6 16,6 18,6
88,8101,2
110,5
158,9
219,0
86,6
114,4
118,6
167,0
75,5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
billi
on k
Wh
TPP and CHPP
NPP
HPP and HPSP
Local plants and other sources
185,2210,2
251,0
307,0
40,8%
47,9%
39,8%
52,1%
420,1
Basic Indices of the Development of Electric Power Industry of Ukraine for the Period until 2030
00000II. Electric power imports
100100858543including: other local sources of power
2100160088513551Б). Power generation capacities using renewable energy sources (except small HPP)
13400113001066597758593А). Local power plants**
155003,7%
129004,2%
115504,6%
99104,7%
86444,7%
2). Local power plants and other sources,percentage in total generation, including:
21900052,1%
15890051,8%
11050044,0%
10120048,1%
8875647,9%
Г). Nuclear power plants (NPP)percentage in total generation
45001,1%
39001,3%
32001,3%
22001,0%
1930,1%
В). Hydroelectric pumped storage plants (HPSP)percentage in total generation
141003,4%
127004,1%
114004,5%
103004,9%
121286,5%
Б). Hydropower plants (HPP)*percentage in total generation
16700039,8%
11860038,6%
11435045,6%
8659041,2%
7551540,8%
А). Thermal and Combined Heat-and-power Plants (TPP and CHPP), percentage in total generation
4046002941002394502002901765921). General-purpose power plants, including:
42010036,8%
30700022,3%
25100019,4%
21020013,5%
185236-
I.I. Power generation, totalGrowth rate to the last period (%), including:
420100307000251000210200185236
А. Power supply, total ((billion kWh)
20302020201520102005Indicators
Forecasted Fuel Balance for TPPs, CHPPs and Local Generating Plants (taking account of local sources)
until 2030 (million tons of standard fuel).
2005
Gas17.6
47.4%
Coal19.2
51.8%
Fuel oil0.3
0.8%
2030
Fuel oil0,3
0,4%
Coal59.4
85.1%
Gas10,1
14,5%
Fuel oil0.3
0.4%
Gas10.1
14.5%
Conclusions
• To ensure forecasted economic and social development of the country until 2030 according to the base-case scenario it is envisaged to increase electricity generation from 185.2 billion kWh in 2005 to 420.1 billion kWh in 2030, heat generation from 241.0 million Gcal to 430.9 million Gcalcorrespondingly.
• The volume of fuel imported for electricity and heat generation by power plants is planned to be reduced from 41.4 million tons of standard fuel in 2005 to 12.4 million tons of standard fuel in 2030.
• Due to application of the modern technologies of coal combustion, use of new equipment for purification of emissions from TPPs, as well as further development of renewable resources of energy, technogenic burden on the environment will be reduced substantially.
The implementation of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine under the base-case scenario of economic development guarantees the fulfillment of tasks and resolving the problems of the fuel and energy complex, the major ones being identified as follows:
• Ensuring reliable and quality supply of energy products to the national economy and population, enhancing economic efficiency and environmental safety based on the introduction of advanced technologies in process of upgrading, reconstruction and construction of energy facilities;• Reducing GDP energy content from 0.48 kg of standard fuel/UAH registered in 2005 to 0.24 kg of standard fuel/UAH in 2030 (that is, by factor of two), due to structural and technological energy saving;
0,240,280,310,37
0,48
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
kg s
f/UA
H
• Optimizing the electricity generation structure by types of fuel keeping the following proportions: nuclear power plants – 52.1%, thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, industrial plants – 42.9%, other types of power generation – 5.0%. Such electricity generation proportions will ensure economically effective operation of power plants and create conditions for regulation and stable operation of the United Energy System of Ukraine;