The 19th AIM International Workshop

1 SIIT-TU SIIT-TUTU

Bundit Limmeechokchai, Kamphol Promjiraprawat Puttipong Chunark, Sujeetha Selvakkumaran

Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology

Thammasat University, THAILAND

13 December 2013 NIES, Japan

1st LCS Scenario by AIM/ExSS 2nd LCS Roadmap by AIM/Enduse 2 SIIT-TU

Objectives - Appropriate CO2 reduction target in 2020 (Thailand’s NAMA has been studied for CO2

mitigation in a range of 7-20%) - LCS Roadmap to Low Carbon Thailand 2050 (CO2 mitigation upto 29.2%) - Peak CO2 Scenario within 2050 for Thailand (CO2 mitigation upto 48.3%)

3 SIIT-TU

Thailand’s NAMAs • Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

(NAMAs) has been proposed for CO2 mitigation in a range of 7-20% (7% for unilateral/domestic and 13% for international supported according to their abatement costs).

• In Thailand NAMAs, only cost effective actions are proposed (IRR > 10%, Payback period < 4 years).

• Without M R V, 20% mitigation target in 2020 cannot be achieved.

• For NAMAs 2020, LCS roadmap 2050, and peak scenarios, AIM/Enduse has been used in analyses.

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Methodology (LCS Action Plan)

5 SIIT-TU

Methodology (AIM/Enduse), NIES Energy Energy Technology Energy Services

- Oil- Coal- Gas- Solar- (Electricity)

- Boiler- Power generation- Blast furnace- Air conditioner- Automobile

- Lighting- Steel products- Cooling- Transportation

Energy ConsumptionCO2 Emissions Technology Service Demand

Energy Database Technology Database Socio-economic Scenario

- Energy type- Energy price- Energy constraints- CO2 emission factor

- Technology price- Energy consumption- Service supplied- Share- Lifetime

- Population growth- Economic growth- Industrial structure- Employees- Lifetime

6 SIIT-TU

National Circumstance 1990-2005 Population, GDP, Energy, CO2 emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1990

1995

2000

2005

No.

of H

H (M

illio

ns)

Popu

latio

n (M

illio

ns)

Population Number of household

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990

1995

2000

2005

Thou

sand

USD

per

Cap

ita

Gro

ss o

utpu

t (bi

l. B

aht)

Services Industry Agriculture Per Capita GDP

2 2 3 3 9 16 16

23 9

9 11 13

11

19 18

23

-

20

40

60

80

1990

1995

2000

2005

Ener

gy u

se (M

toe)

Agriculture Industry Res. & Com. Transportation

6 6 9 11 33 31 31 43 21 4 4 5 34 47 44 56 32 50 58

76

-

50

100

150

200

250

1990

1991

1992

1993

CO

2 em

issio

n (M

t-C

O2)

Agriculture Industry Res. & Com. Transportation Power generation

7 SIIT-TU

Demographic and Economic Assumptions in 2050 Average population growth

Historical data (2006–2011) 0.51% p.a. increase (2012–2050)

Number of household

Historical data (2006–2011) 2.89% p.a. increase (2012–2050)

Floor space 4.02% p.a. increase Gross Domestic Products (GDP)

Historical data (2006–2010) Follows PDP2010 (2011–2023) 3.92 p.a. increase (2024–2050)

GDP share by industry

Primary industry (9.68%) Secondary industry (37.37%) Tertiary industry (52.95%)

Modal share of passenger transport Road (97.69%), Rail (0.25%), Air (2.06%) Modal share of freight transport Road (6.39%), Rail (0.01%), Water (91.85%), Air (1.76%)

Socio-economic indicators 2005 2050 2050/2005 Population (Person) No. of Households GDP (Million USD) Gross output (Million USD) Primary industry Secondary industry Tertiary industry Per capita GDP (USD/Capita) Floor space for commercial (Million m2) Passenger transport demand (Million passenger-km) Freight transport demand (Million tone-km)

62,418,054 19,016,784

169,870 407,157 43,286

146,182 217,689

2,721 88

361,819 1,826,631

78,071,984 67,478,570 1,247,449 2,939,643

284,499 1,098,631 1,556,506

15,978 519

1,201,951 9,701,505

1.25 3.55 7.34 7.23 6.57 7.52 7.15 5.87 5.90 3.32 5.31

8 SIIT-TU

23

100

73

9

51

34

10

44

42

10

20

12

4

23

12

0

30

60

90

120

150

2005 2050BAU 2050LCS

Ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(Mto

e)

Industry Passenger Transport Freight Transport Residential Commercial

Primary Energy Demand by fuel type in 2050 Coal

17%

Natural gas

66%

Hydro 8% Co-gen

9%

2050BAU

Coal 16%

Natural gas 31%

Hydro 6%

Nuclear 3%

Solar & wind 3%

Biomass 3%

Biogas 1%

Coal with CCS 31%

Co-gen 6%

2050CM 9 SIIT-TU

Energy Demand in 2050 (LCS)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2005 2050BAU 2050LCS

CO

2 em

issio

ns (M

t-C

O2)

Power generation Industry Passenger transport

Freight transport Residential Commercial GHG

Emissions in 2050

(LCS)

29.2%

10 SIIT-TU

• In the 2050BAU scenario, the GHG emissions would increase to 769.9 Mt-CO2.

• That is 4.6 times higher than the base year 2005.

• According to the proposed LCS roadmap for sustainable Thailand towards 2050, and by adopting the selected feasible GHG mitigation measures available by 2020, 2030 and 2050, the GHG emissions in the 2050LCS scenario can be decreased by approximately 29.2% to 551.6 Mt-CO2.

• However, the Thailand’s LCS roadmap, which is based

on selected feasible GHG mitigation measures, could not achieve the 2 degree target. SIIT-TU 11

Total GHG Emissions 2005-2050 (LCS)

12 SIIT-TU

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2

Emis

sion

s (M

t-CO

2)

Year

BAU

LCS

30%

2050BAU

2050LCS

Peak CO2 Scenario

• Therefore, rigorous LCS actions to achieve the peak CO2 target within 2050 are proposed.

• Results from analyses show that Thailand could meet the peak CO2 emissions during 2040 - 2045 at 393 Mt-CO2 emissions.

• The peak CO2 scenario shows that CO2 can be reduced by approximately 48.3% from 770 to 393 Mt-CO2.

SIIT-TU 13

What are LCS Actions in the Peak Scenario ?

• LCS Actions include both supply-side and demand-side actions such as increasing the use of carbon capture storage (CCS) in power generation and industries, more utilization of bio-fuels, renewable energy (RE), promoting modal shift in transportation, and increasing energy efficiency (EE) in buildings and industries.

SIIT-TU 14

GHG Emissions

in 2050 (Peak CO2)

GHG Mitigation

by 2050 (Peak CO2)

48.3%

15 SIIT-TU

48.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2050BAU 2050LCP

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (M

t-C

O2)

Scenario

Commercial

Residential

Transport

Industrial

0 50 100 150 200 250

Green Industry

Effective transport

Comfortable Houses

Smart Buildings

211

78

14

52

Mitigation of CO2 (Mt-CO2)

Miti

gatio

n ac

tion

Mitigation

Mitigation

Total GHG Emissions 2005-2050 (Peak CO2)

16 SIIT-TU

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (M

t-CO

2)

Year

BAU LCS LCP

30%

20%

2050BAU

2050LCS

Peak CO2

Total GHG Emissions 2005-2050 (Peak CO2)

SIIT-TU 17

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2

Emis

sion

s (M

t-CO

2)

Year

BAU

LCS

LCP

30%

20%

2050BAU

2050LCS

Peak CO2

GHG Emissions in 2050 (Power Sector) (Peak CO2)

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2050BAU 2050LCP

Emis

sion

(MtC

O2e

q)

Scenario

Emission in power sector

Emission in power sector

55%

19 SIIT-TU

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005BAU 2050BAU 2050LCS 2050LCP

Tchn

olog

y sha

re (%

)

Scenarios in 2050

Conventional thermal PP by natural gas Conventional thermal PP by lignite Conventional thermal PP by coal Conventional thermal PP by fuel oil Conventional combined cycled PP by natural gas Conventional gas turbine PP by natural gas Conventional gas turbine PP by diesel Conventional biogas PP Hydro PP Conventional congeneration PP Import power IGCC Supercritical PP Wind power Biomass PP Nuclear PP Solar PV Thermal PP with CCS by coal IGCC with CCS Supercritical PP with CCS Municiple waste PP

20 SIIT-TU

2030 2040 205020202010

4

5

3

2

1

6

7

Wind Power

Nuclear Technology

Solar PV

Supercritical Power Plant with CCS

Thermal Power Plant with CCS

Municipal Waste Power Plant

IGCC with CCS

70 MtCO2eq

321 Mton-CO2

263 Mton-CO2

144 Mton-CO2

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Emis

sion

(ktC

O2e

q)

Year

BAU LCS LCP

MtonMton CO2

2050BAU

2050LCS

Peak CO2

Low Carbon Peak

22 SIIT-TU

Efficiency improvement - Heating efficiency improvement - Electrical efficiency improvement

CCS

CHP

2nd and 3rd Generation Biomass

Advanced technologies - Heating advanced technologies - Advanced electrical technologies

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2050BAU 2050LCS 2050LCP

Tec

hnol

ogy

Mix

(% sh

are)

Existing Heating High Efficient Heating New Heating Existing Lighting High Efficient Lighting New Lighting Existing Motors High Efficient Motors New Motors Existing Cooling High Efficient Cooling New Cooling Existing Others High Efficient Others New Others CHP Fuel switching CCS

Highlighted LCS Actions in 2050 Peak Scenario

SIIT-TU 23

Low Carbon Peak

... 2045 2050202020152010

4

5

3

2

1

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Efficient Heating

Advanced Technology in Heating

New Heating

New Motors

New Lighting

New Cooling

New Others

High Efficient Lighting

High Efficient Motors

High Efficient Cooling

High Efficient Others

13

14

CHP

Fuel Switching

CCS

SIIT-TU 24

Low Carbon Peak

378 Mt-CO2

277 Mt-CO2

166 Mt-CO2

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2 em

issio

ns (k

t-C

O2)

Year

BAU LCS LCP

2050BAU 2050LCS

2050 Peak CO2

25 SIIT-TU

Sedan - Hybrid (battery) - Plug-in hybrid - EV - Fuel switching (E85, LPG,CNG)

Passenger - Hybrid (battery) -Fuel switching (E85, LPG,CNG)

Motorcycle -Gasohol

Bus sector by each technology - Modal shift to electric train - Fuel switching (E85, LPG,CNG)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2050BAU 2050LCS 2050LCP

Tec

hnol

ogy

type

(%)

Scenarios

Gasoline sedan Gasohol/B5 sedan LPG/CNG sedan Gasoline van

Gasohol/B5 van LPG/CNG van Gasoline tuktuk Gasohol/B5 tuktuk

LPG/CNG tuktuk Gasoline taxi Gasohol/B5 taxi LPG/CNG taxi

Gasoline motorcycle Gasohol motorcycle Gasoline bus Gasohol/B5 bus

LPG/CNG bus Gasoline others Gasohol/B5 others LPG/CNG others

Hybrid-Gasohol Sedan Plugin Hybrid-Gasohol Sedan Electric sedan Hybrid-Gasohol Van

Biodiesel Van Hybrid-Gasohol Taxi Plugin Hybrid-Gasohol Taxi Electric Taxi

Electric Motorcycle Electric Train Biodiesel Bus Biodiesel Others

Highlighted LCS Actions in 2050 Peak Scenario

26 SIIT-TU

Pickup - Diesel Hybrid (battery) - Gasoline Hybrid (battery) - 2nd generation bio-fuel (B10, B20) - Fuel switching (E85, LPG,CNG)

Truck -Second generation bio-fuel (B10, B20) - Modal shift to Rail

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2050BAU 2050LCS 2050LCP

Tec

hnol

ogy

type

(%)

Scenarios

Gasoline Pickup Gasohol/B5 Pickup LPG/CNG Pickup

Gasoline Truck Gasohol/B5 Truck LPG/CNG Truck

Diesel Freight Train Electric Freight Train Fuel oil Ship

Diesel Ship Jet fuel Aircraft Hybrid-Gasohol Pickup

Biodiesel Pickup Biodiesel Truck Hybrid-Biodiesel Pickup

Highlighted LCS Actions in 2050 Peak Scenario

27 SIIT-TU

2040 2050203020202010

4

5

3

2

1

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Gasohol/ B5 sedan

LPG/ CNG sedan

Electric Train

13

14

Biodiesel Pickup

Biodiesel Truck

Gasohol/ B5 van

Gasohol/ B5 taxi

Gasohol/ B5 tuktuk

LPG/ CNG taxi

Gasohol/ B5 bus

Gasohol/ B5 others

Hybrid-Gasohol Taxi

Gasohol/ B5 pickup

Hybrid-Gasohol Pickup

15

Gasohol Motorcycle

16

Electric Freight Train

Low Carbon Peak

28 SIIT-TU

Cooking - Higher efficiency stove - Renewable stove

Lighting - T5 - LED Lamp - Compact Fluorescent

Cooling - A/C and refrigerator COP6 - A/C and refrigerator COP9 - New Building codes 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2050BAU 2050LCS 2050LCP

Tech

nolo

gy sh

are

(%)

Scenarios

Fluorescent Incandescent Kerosene lamp Compact fluorescent T5 lamp LED lamp Rice cooker Efficient rice cooker Electric pan Efficient electric pan Gas stove Chinese earthen stove Efficient gas stove Efficient Chinese earthen stove Electric pot Efficient electric pot Water heater Efficient water heater Iron Efficient iron Television setLED television Stereo set Efficient stereo set Computer set Efficient computer set Telephone set Efficient telephone set Electric fan Efficient electric fan Air conditioner Air conditioner with COP-6 Air conditioner with COP-9

Highlighted LCS Actions in 2050 Peak Scenario

Low Carbon Peak

29 SIIT-TU

205020402030

4

5

3

2

1 T5 lamp

LED lamp

Efficient Appliances

Advanced Air-conditioners

Advance Refrigerators

2020

30 SIIT-TU

Cooking - Higher efficiency stove - Renewable stove

Lighting - T5 - LED Lamp - Compact Fluorescent

Cooling - A/C and refrigerator COP6 - A/C and refrigerator COP9 - New Building codes

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005BAU 2050BAU 2050LCS 2050LCP

Tech

nolo

gy M

ix (%

)

Scenarios in 2050

Existing fluorescent Compact fluorescent T5 (Lighting) LED (Lighting)

Airconditioner Airconditioner-COP 6 Airconditioner-COP 9 Others

Building code Stove Efficient stove

Highlighted LCS Actions in 2050 Peak Scenario

31 SIIT-TU

... 2045 2050202020152010

4

5

3

2

1

6

T5 Lamp

Building Code

Efficient Stove

Air conditioner with COP-9

Air conditioner with COP-6

Efficient other equipment

Total GHG Emissions 2005-2050 (Peak CO2)

32 SIIT-TU

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2

Emis

sion

s (M

t-CO

2)

Year

BAU

LCS

LCP

2050BAU

2050LCS

Peak CO2

50%

Conclusions • In 2050, these CO2 CMs will result in Transformational

Changes in not only supply side but also demand side while Thailand’s NAMA will not result in such changes.

• To achieve Peak target, Thailand needs, i) LCS Capacity Building, ii) sustainable Feed-in Tariff scheme for renewable electricity, iii) enforcement of Energy Efficiency laws, iv) Co-funding of the LCS Actions in both demand side and clean supply side.

• This Peak target can not be achieved if they are not planned & implemented in the early stage.

• In addition, M R V of LCS actions are of necessity. SIIT-TU 33

Selected LCS publication between Thailand and AIM Teams Panida Thepkhun, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Shinichiro Fujimori, Toshihiko Masui, and Ram M Shrestha

(2013), “Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures”,

Energy Policy, Vol.62, 2013.

Sujeetha Selvakkumaran, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Toshihiko Masui, Tatsuya Hanaoka and Yuzuru Matsuoka, “Low Carbon Society Scenario 2050 in Thai Industrial Sector”, The 26th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, July 16-19, 2013, Guilin, China, and selected for publication in Energy Conversion and Management.

Kamphol Promjiraprawat, Pornphimol Winyuchakrit, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Toshihiko Masui, Tatsuya Hanaoka and Yuzuru Matsuok, “CO2 Mitigation Potential and Marginal Abatement Costs in Thai Residential and Building Sectors”, The 26th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, July 16-19, 2013, Guilin, China.

Panida Thepkhun, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Shinichiro Fujimori, Toshihiko Masui, and Ram M Shrestha, “Analyses of Thailand's LCS towards 2050 using AIM/CGE: The case of GHG mitigation measures and renewable energy sources”, The 3rd IAEE Asian Conference, Kyoto, Japan, 20-22 Feb 2012.

Pornphimol Winyuchakrit1, Bundit Limmeechokchai1, Yuzuru Matsuoka, Kei Gomi, Mikiko Kainuma, Junichi Fujino and Maiko Suda (2011), “Thailand’s Low-Carbon Scenario 2030: Analyses of Demand Side CO2 Mitigation Options”, Energy for Sustainable Development, 15, 2011.

SIIT-TU 34

35 SIIT-TU

(S-6-1) MOE Japan