128 ss natural gas generic redux

8/14/2019 128 SS Natural Gas Generic Redux

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DDI 08 SS Natural Gas Redux

Uniqueness NG Demand Increasing.........................................................................................................................................................7Uniqueness NG Demand Increasing.........................................................................................................................................................8Uniqueness NG Demand Increasing.........................................................................................................................................................9Uniqueness NG Demand Increasing.......................................................................................................................................................10Uniqueness NG Demand Increasing.......................................................................................................................................................11Uniqueness Demand will stay high.........................................................................................................................................................12Uniqueness NG demand Decreasing......................................................................................................................................................13

Uniqueness NG Demand Decreasing......................................................................................................................................................14Uniqueness - Canada NG demand low......................................................................................................................................................15Uniqueness NG prices high....................................................................................................................................................................16Uniqueness NG Prices High...................................................................................................................................................................17Uniqueness NG Prices High...................................................................................................................................................................18Uniqueness NG Prices High...................................................................................................................................................................19Uniqueness NG Prices High...................................................................................................................................................................20Uniqueness NG Prices High...................................................................................................................................................................21Uniqueness NG Prices Increasing...........................................................................................................................................................22Uniqueness NG Prices Increasing...........................................................................................................................................................23Uniqueness NG prices low......................................................................................................................................................................24Uniqueness NG prices low......................................................................................................................................................................25Uniqueness NG Prices Decreasing.........................................................................................................................................................26...................................................................................................................................................................................................................27Uniqueness LNG Increasing...................................................................................................................................................................27Uniqueness LNG Increasing...................................................................................................................................................................28Uniqueness LNG Increasing...................................................................................................................................................................29Uniqueness LNG Increasing...................................................................................................................................................................30Uniqueness LNG Increasing...................................................................................................................................................................31Uniqueness LNG Increasing...................................................................................................................................................................32Uniqueness LNG Increasing...................................................................................................................................................................33Uniqueness LNG Increasing...................................................................................................................................................................34Uniqueness LNG Demand Increasing....................................................................................................................................................35Uniqueness LNG Demand Decreasing...................................................................................................................................................36Incentives drop NG demand and NG prices..............................................................................................................................................37Alternate Energy decreases NG Prices......................................................................................................................................................38Alternate Energy decreases NG Prices......................................................................................................................................................39

Renewables decreases NG Demand..........................................................................................................................................................40Renewables decreases NG Demand...........................................................................................................................................................41Renewables decreases NG Demand...........................................................................................................................................................42Renewables decreases NG Demand...........................................................................................................................................................43 NG competes with renewables...................................................................................................................................................................4Renewables decreases NG demand/prices.................................................................................................................................................45Renewables (and Efficiency CP) drop NG prices......................................................................................................................................46Renewables reduces NG Prices.................................................................................................................................................................47Renewables reduce NG demand RPS mechanism..................................................................................................................................48RPS Reduces NG prices.............................................................................................................................................................................49Nm According to the report, the adoption of a 15% Federal RPS will require a flood of new wind and other renewable projects wellbeyond current proposed projects, leading to a 500-percent increase in renewable capacity from current levels by 2026. This increasetranslates into an incremental construction cost of $134 billion (2006 dollars) between 2006 and 2026. The report also shows the

switch to renewable energy will drive down demand and price of natural gas. "The lower fuel costs and fossil fuel consumption willlead to lower electricity costs," continued Sannicandro............................................................................................................................49Cap and Trade reduce NG demand............................................................................................................................................................50 Nuke Power reduces NG prices.................................................................................................................................................................5 Nuke Power reduces NG prices ................................................................................................................................................................5Nuclear energy will tradeoff with natural gas as taxes and penalties on burning fossil-fuels increase. ...................................................52Wind Decreases NG Demand....................................................................................................................................................................53Solar Decreases NG Demand.....................................................................................................................................................................54NG Demand key to LNG..........................................................................................................................................................................55

NG Demand key to LNG ..........................................................................................................................................................................5High NG Prices key to LNG......................................................................................................................................................................57LNG Market developing............................................................................................................................................................................59

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US key to global prices..............................................................................................................................................................................60Perception - Berman..................................................................................................................................................................................61SHELL RUSSIA.....................................................................................................................................................................................62SHELL RUSSIA.....................................................................................................................................................................................63Uniqueness Natural Gas Dependence Growing......................................................................................................................................64Uniqueness Russia NG Use Increasing...................................................................................................................................................65Uniqueness Gazprom..............................................................................................................................................................................66

Uniqueness Gazprom..............................................................................................................................................................................67Internals Energy key to Relations...........................................................................................................................................................68Internals Russian Energy Dominance.....................................................................................................................................................69Internals Natural Gas Key to Relations..................................................................................................................................................70Internals Natural Gas Key to Relations..................................................................................................................................................71Internals Natural Gas Key to Relations..................................................................................................................................................72Internals Natural Gas Key to Relations..................................................................................................................................................72Internals US key to Natural Gas.............................................................................................................................................................74Internals Gazprom Investing in US.........................................................................................................................................................75Impacts NATO Backlash.........................................................................................................................................................................76Impacts NATO key to Relations.............................................................................................................................................................77Impacts Neo-Imperialism........................................................................................................................................................................78Impacts National Security Risk..............................................................................................................................................................79Impacts Terror Coop...............................................................................................................................................................................80Impacts Terrorism...................................................................................................................................................................................81Impacts US-Russian War........................................................................................................................................................................82Impacts US-Russian War........................................................................................................................................................................83Impacts Russian Economy......................................................................................................................................................................84AT: Non-Unique Ukraine........................................................................................................................................................................85US-Russia Cooperation on Nuke Energy..................................................................................................................................................86SHELL CANADA..................................................................................................................................................................................88SHELL CANADA..................................................................................................................................................................................89SHELL CANADA..................................................................................................................................................................................90Links Supplier.........................................................................................................................................................................................91Links Supplier ........................................................................................................................................................................................92Links Energy Cooperation......................................................................................................................................................................93Impacts Relations....................................................................................................................................................................................94

Impacts Relations....................................................................................................................................................................................95Impacts Afghanistan Module..................................................................................................................................................................96Impacts Afghanistan Extensions.............................................................................................................................................................97Impacts Military......................................................................................................................................................................................98Impacts Trade..........................................................................................................................................................................................99Impacts WOT........................................................................................................................................................................................1001NC LNG Econ (1/2)...............................................................................................................................................................................1011NC LNG Econ (2/2)...............................................................................................................................................................................102Renewables LNG Tradeoff link...............................................................................................................................................................103High NG prices key to LNG....................................................................................................................................................................104 NG demand key to LNG..........................................................................................................................................................................10LNG key to econ......................................................................................................................................................................................106LNG key to econ......................................................................................................................................................................................107

LNG key to econ......................................................................................................................................................................................108AT: LNG Accidents..................................................................................................................................................................................109AT: LNG Accidents..................................................................................................................................................................................110AT: LNG Accidents..................................................................................................................................................................................111AT: LNG Accidents..................................................................................................................................................................................112AT: LNG Terrorism..................................................................................................................................................................................113SHELL LNG SAFETY.........................................................................................................................................................................114SHELL LNG SAFETY.........................................................................................................................................................................115Uniqueness LNG Inevitable..................................................................................................................................................................116Uniqueness LNG Inevitable..................................................................................................................................................................117Uniqueness LNG Inevitable..................................................................................................................................................................118Internals LNG Demand key to Safety...................................................................................................................................................119

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Internals LNG Demand key to Safety...................................................................................................................................................120Internals LNG Demand key to Safety...................................................................................................................................................121Impact LNG Terror...............................................................................................................................................................................122Impact LNG Terror ..............................................................................................................................................................................123Impact LNG Terror...............................................................................................................................................................................124Impact LNG Terror...............................................................................................................................................................................125Impact LNG Terror...............................................................................................................................................................................126

AT: LNG Safe..........................................................................................................................................................................................127SHELL INDONESIA ...........................................................................................................................................................................128SHELL INDONESIA...........................................................................................................................................................................129SHELL INDONESIA...........................................................................................................................................................................130SHELL INDONESIA ...........................................................................................................................................................................131Uniqueness Indonesian Prices High......................................................................................................................................................132Uniqueness Indonesian NG Strong.......................................................................................................................................................133Internals Indonesia Supplier.................................................................................................................................................................134Internals Indonesia Wants US Markets.................................................................................................................................................135Internals NG key to Relations...............................................................................................................................................................136Brink Investment...................................................................................................................................................................................137Impacts Economy .................................................................................................................................................................................138Impacts Stability...................................................................................................................................................................................139Impacts Stability ..................................................................................................................................................................................140Impacts Stability ..................................................................................................................................................................................141Impacts Stability ..................................................................................................................................................................................142Impacts Turns the Case.........................................................................................................................................................................143Impact Booster Stability.......................................................................................................................................................................144SHELL IPI PIPELINE..........................................................................................................................................................................145SHELL IPI PIPELINE..........................................................................................................................................................................146Uniqueness IPI Pipeline Coming..........................................................................................................................................................147Uniqueness Indian Demand High.........................................................................................................................................................148Brink India-Iran Relations....................................................................................................................................................................149Link Demand key to IPI........................................................................................................................................................................150Link Prices key to Pipeline...................................................................................................................................................................151Link Prices key to Pipeline...................................................................................................................................................................152Internals Iran Wants Pipeline................................................................................................................................................................153

Internals Iran Natural Gas Untapped....................................................................................................................................................154Internals India Natural Gas Demand ....................................................................................................................................................155Internals India Natural Gas Demand.....................................................................................................................................................156Internals India Natural Gas Demand.....................................................................................................................................................157Internals India Natural Gas Demand.....................................................................................................................................................158Internals Iran Supplies Natural Gas......................................................................................................................................................159Impacts Stability ..................................................................................................................................................................................160Impacts Iranian-Pakistani Relations.....................................................................................................................................................161Impacts CBMs......................................................................................................................................................................................162Impacts Iranian Economy.....................................................................................................................................................................163Impacts Diplomacy...............................................................................................................................................................................164Impacts IPI Key to Pakistan Industry...................................................................................................................................................165Impacts Pakistan Strategy/Security.......................................................................................................................................................166

Impacts Pakistan Economy...................................................................................................................................................................167Impacts Indian Economy......................................................................................................................................................................168Impacts Indian Energy..........................................................................................................................................................................169Impacts Indo-Pak Relations..................................................................................................................................................................170Impacts Indo-Pak relations...................................................................................................................................................................171Impacts Indo-Pak Relations..................................................................................................................................................................172Impacts Conflict Res.............................................................................................................................................................................173Impacts CBMs......................................................................................................................................................................................174Impacts Regional Stability....................................................................................................................................................................175AT: TAPI Better.......................................................................................................................................................................................176AT: US Pressure Prevents Pipeline..........................................................................................................................................................177AT: US Pressure Prevents Pipeline..........................................................................................................................................................178

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AT: Pipeline Unsafe.................................................................................................................................................................................179SHELL FLARING................................................................................................................................................................................180

..................................................................................................................................................................................................................180SHELL FLARING ...............................................................................................................................................................................181SHELL FLARING ...............................................................................................................................................................................182SHELL FLARING................................................................................................................................................................................183

Link Oil.................................................................................................................................................................................................184Internals Low Prices = Flaring..............................................................................................................................................................185Internals High Prices Solve Flaring......................................................................................................................................................186High NG price solves flaring...................................................................................................................................................................188

Subsidiesmake gas prices high.............................................................................................................................................................189Internals High Prices Solve Flaring......................................................................................................................................................190Impact Booster Methane.......................................................................................................................................................................191

FlaringWarming...................................................................................................................................................................................192

FlaringSpecies extinction.....................................................................................................................................................................193SHELL INDUSTRIES HYDROGEN..................................................................................................................................................194SHELL INDUSTRIES HYDROGEN..................................................................................................................................................195SHELL INDUSTRIES CAP AND TRADE..........................................................................................................................................196SHELL INDUSTRIES CAP AND TRADE..........................................................................................................................................197

Links Hydrogen Cars............................................................................................................................................................................198Links Hydrogen Links..........................................................................................................................................................................199Links Cap and Trade.............................................................................................................................................................................200Links Cap and Trade.............................................................................................................................................................................201Link Amplifier Chemical Industry........................................................................................................................................................202Brink Chemical Industry.......................................................................................................................................................................203Internals Manufacturing........................................................................................................................................................................204Internals Chemical Industry..................................................................................................................................................................205Internals Chemical Industry..................................................................................................................................................................206Impacts Chemical Industry key to All Things......................................................................................................................................207Impacts Chemical Industry key to National Defense...........................................................................................................................208Impacts Chemical Industry key to Economy........................................................................................................................................209Impacts Chemical Industry key to Economy........................................................................................................................................210Impacts Air Power.................................................................................................................................................................................211Impacts Air Power.................................................................................................................................................................................211Impacts Disease....................................................................................................................................................................................213Impacts Food Supply............................................................................................................................................................................214Impacts Satellites..................................................................................................................................................................................215Impacts Hegemony...............................................................................................................................................................................216Impacts Terrorism.................................................................................................................................................................................217Impacts Nanotech .................................................................................................................................................................................218Impacts Nanotech..................................................................................................................................................................................219Impacts Nanotech..................................................................................................................................................................................220Impacts Agriculture...............................................................................................................................................................................221Impacts Manufacturing.........................................................................................................................................................................222Impacts Steel ........................................................................................................................................................................................223Turns Case................................................................................................................................................................................................224

Impact Booster Methane.......................................................................................................................................................................226Impacts Warming..................................................................................................................................................................................227Impacts Military....................................................................................................................................................................................228Impacts Human Rights..........................................................................................................................................................................229Impacts Value of Life............................................................................................................................................................................230Impacts Communities...........................................................................................................................................................................231SHELL INDUSTRIES HYDROGEN..................................................................................................................................................232SHELL INDUSTRIES HYDROGEN..................................................................................................................................................233SHELL INDUSTRIES CAP AND TRADE..........................................................................................................................................234SHELL INDUSTRIES CAP AND TRADE..........................................................................................................................................235Links Hydrogen Cars............................................................................................................................................................................236

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Links Hydrogen Links..........................................................................................................................................................................237Links Cap and Trade.............................................................................................................................................................................238Links Cap and Trade.............................................................................................................................................................................239Link Amplifier Chemical Industry........................................................................................................................................................240Brink Chemical Industry.......................................................................................................................................................................241Internals Manufacturing........................................................................................................................................................................242Internals Chemical Industry..................................................................................................................................................................243

Internals Chemical Industry..................................................................................................................................................................244Impacts Chemical Industry key to All Things......................................................................................................................................245Impacts Chemical Industry key to National Defense...........................................................................................................................246Impacts Chemical Industry key to Economy........................................................................................................................................247Impacts Chemical Industry key to Economy........................................................................................................................................248Impacts Air Power.................................................................................................................................................................................249Impacts Air Power.................................................................................................................................................................................250Impacts Disease....................................................................................................................................................................................251Impacts Food Supply............................................................................................................................................................................252Impacts Satellites..................................................................................................................................................................................253Impacts Hegemony...............................................................................................................................................................................254Impacts Terrorism.................................................................................................................................................................................255Impacts Nanotech .................................................................................................................................................................................256Impacts Nanotech..................................................................................................................................................................................257Impacts Nanotech..................................................................................................................................................................................258Impacts Agriculture...............................................................................................................................................................................259Impacts Manufacturing.........................................................................................................................................................................260Impacts Steel ........................................................................................................................................................................................261Turns Case Chem Industry key to renewables (and RPS).................................................................................................................262AFF Oil Prices Turn .............................................................................................................................................................................263 NEG At: Oil Prices turn...........................................................................................................................................................................26At: Link turns...........................................................................................................................................................................................265AFF High Natural Gas Bad Econ......................................................................................................................................................266

High NG priceshift to AE....................................................................................................................................................................267Oil (and high NG prices) key to Russia Econ ........................................................................................................................................268AFF Canada NG reduction boosts revenues.........................................................................................................................................269At: Wind Energy Trades off.....................................................................................................................................................................270

NG collapses chemical industry - econ ...................................................................................................................................................27 NG collapses Steel Industry heg...........................................................................................................................................................272NG solves Acid Rain extinction/Calvin 98...........................................................................................................................................273LNG cant stabilize prices....................................................................................................................................................................274At: Trade off generic............................................................................................................................................................................275

Natural Gas = Renewable........................................................................................................................................................................27

Natural Gasrenewables in other areas..................................................................................................................................................277

Low NG pricesno renewables..............................................................................................................................................................278AT: AE Decreases Natural Gas................................................................................................................................................................279 Natural Gas Peak......................................................................................................................................................................................28 Natural Gas Peak......................................................................................................................................................................................28 Natural Gas Price Spikes.........................................................................................................................................................................28 Natural Gas Price Spikes.........................................................................................................................................................................28

Gas Markets Risky...................................................................................................................................................................................284Energy Regulation Bad............................................................................................................................................................................285AT: Resource War with China/India........................................................................................................................................................286Impact Defense Terrorism.....................................................................................................................................................................287Terrorism Good Econ (1/2)...................................................................................................................................................................288Terrorism Good Econ (2/2)...................................................................................................................................................................289At: Terrorism kills econ...........................................................................................................................................................................290Terrorism Good Heg.............................................................................................................................................................................291Impact Defense Economy.....................................................................................................................................................................292Econ Deline Inevitable.............................................................................................................................................................................293AFF Canda...............................................................................................................................................................................................295

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AFF LNG Safety......................................................................................................................................................................................296AFF LNG Opposition...........................................................................................................................................................................297AFF LNG demand low.........................................................................................................................................................................298

AFF renewablesNG..........................................................................................................................................................................299.................................................................................................................................................................................................................300AFF LNG Costs High...........................................................................................................................................................................300AFF Indonesia shifting to regional markets/low...............................................................................................................................301

AFF - Indonesia.......................................................................................................................................................................................302AFF US = no investments in Indonesia................................................................................................................................................303.................................................................................................................................................................................................................303AFF US Not Key..................................................................................................................................................................................304AFF Wind No-Link...............................................................................................................................................................................305AFF Ethanol No-Link...........................................................................................................................................................................306AFF Transition to Regional Markets Now............................................................................................................................................307AFF Indonesia LNG Market low..........................................................................................................................................................308AFF No IPI Pipeline.............................................................................................................................................................................309AFF IPI fails.........................................................................................................................................................................................310

AFF IPIIran = nukes and terrorism...................................................................................................................................................311AFF Relations Good Now....................................................................................................................................................................312AFF No Pipeline...................................................................................................................................................................................313

AFF Nuclear Demand...........................................................................................................................................................................314AFF Coal Demand................................................................................................................................................................................315AFF Pipeline Inevitable........................................................................................................................................................................316AFF Pipeline Bad Terrorism..............................................................................................................................................................317AFF Pipeline Bad Energy Security....................................................................................................................................................318AFF Pipeline Bad Iran.......................................................................................................................................................................319AFF Pipeline Bad Iran.......................................................................................................................................................................320AFF Iran Sanctions Bad........................................................................................................................................................................321AFF TAPI Pipeline Better.....................................................................................................................................................................322AFF Russia relations low......................................................................................................................................................................323AFF Russia Collapse now.....................................................................................................................................................................324AFF US not dependent on Russia ........................................................................................................................................................325AFF no Russia War...............................................................................................................................................................................326AFF Non-Unique..................................................................................................................................................................................327

AFF Energy key to Russian Influence..................................................................................................................................................328AFF No US-Russia Cooperation Slayer...............................................................................................................................................329AFF US-Russia relations resilient........................................................................................................................................................330AFF No I/L Too Much U.S. Supply...................................................................................................................................................332AFF Empirically Denied Energy Relations.......................................................................................................................................333AFF I/L Turn Retaliation...................................................................................................................................................................334AFF Relations Non-Unique..................................................................................................................................................................335AFF - Flaring...........................................................................................................................................................................................336.................................................................................................................................................................................................................336

AFF Industries Chem Industryrenewables now.............................................................................................................................337AFF Industries Solar power for Chem Industry...................................................................................................................................338

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Uniqueness NG Demand Increasing

Demand for natural gas will continue to surge.

Russel Gold, staff writer, 7-22-04, Wall Street Journal, Oil billionaire takes a gamble to fix natural-gas shortage,http://www.energybulletin.net/node/1193

But it wasn't Mr. Buffett. It was another billionaire named George B. Kaiser. A relative unknown even in hishome state of Oklahoma, Mr. Kaiser is a publicity-shy businessman with a fortune built on oil and banks. LikeMr. Buffett, who has been acquiring natural-gas pipelines, Mr. Kaiseris making a huge bet that demand fornatural gas will continue to surge because it's a clean-burning fuel for power generation . Right now, mostof North America's natural-gas supply comes from North American wells. The gas goes from the wells througha network of underground pipelines to final users, without ever changing its gaseous form. That's the mostefficient way -- but America is running out of its local supply. Imports are an obvious answer. But to travelover the seas, the gas first has to be changed into a super-cooled liquid, loaded onto tankers and then changedback into gaseous form. Currently, tankers unload their cargoes at one of four onshore terminals in the U.S.,where the liquid is heated up. The capacity is limited, and with demand for natural-gas imports rising, moreterminals are needed. But they face opposition by many communities worried that the fuel-filled structures ortankers could explode or be targeted by terrorists. Mr. Kaiser's new way of handling imports is called EnergyBridge. He's invested $660 million in the project since he took it over from El Paso in December 2003. EnergyBridge is scheduled to go into operation next January in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles off the Louisianashoreline. The technology works like this: Special tankers carrying liquefied natural gas from places like Egyptand Trinidad would idle in the gulf. The liquid would be heated while still on the tankers, returned to gaseousform and sent via an underwater pipeline into the U.S. pipeline network. The Energy Bridge, with its tankers farbeyond the horizon, eliminates the risk of explosions on land and thus sidesteps not-in-my-backyardcontroversies. If everything works as planned, backers say, the gulf project could increase the U.S.'s importcapacity by up to 20 percent. When El Paso put Energy Bridge up for sale, several of the world's biggest oilcompanies took a look but decided against buying it, partly because of its untested technology. Liquefied naturalgas, orLNG, has never been turned into a gaseous form aboard a floating ship, and there were concernsabout the impact of the rocking motion. While the process worked in a simulator built by El Paso in Alabamato mimic the motion of 12-foot swells, the technology still hasn't been tested under real-life conditions.Some people are also skeptical Mr. Kaiser will be able to buy enough liquefied natural gas, in part because mostof the supply is already under contract. "You can't just sail up and say fill 'er up," says Ira Joseph, managingdirector for global LNG at PIRA Energy. "The LNG business doesn't work that way."

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Natural gas demand is increasing.Sophia Ruester and Anne Neumann, Department of Business and Economics, Dresden University of Technology, Chair of EnergyEconomics and Public Sector Management, 6-13-08, The prospects for liquefied natural gas development in the US, Science Direct,

Due to supply security and environmental concerns, natural gas demand is increasing at a rate aboveaverage primary energy demand. Total US natural gas consumption is expected to increase from 21.9 to23.4 tcf in 2030 for the reference case with regional differences in growth rates (EIA, 2008). About 26% of thenatural gas is used as fuel in the power generation sector (primarily for utilities and independent powerproducers), 12% is used in the transportation sector, 26% in the industrial sector, and 22% and 14% byresidential and commercial users respectively. There are about 500 electric utilities, 40,000 industrialconsumers, 4.5 million commercial consumers, and 53 million residential consumers. Many of the largerindustrial users have installed dual-fuel equipment, allowing them to take advantage of prices and/or contractsfor interruptible power.

Natural gas demand is high now.

Tux Turkel, staff writer, 7-15-08, Natural gas rates expected to climb, Maine Sunday Telegram,http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=199606&ac=PHnws

The dominant distributor of natural gas insouthern Maine is asking state regulators for a midsummerrateincrease of 17 percent, a prelude to what are expected to be even higher gas costs during the heating season.Northern Utilities projects that natural gas rates for home customers this winterwill be 15 percent to 20

percent higher than last year. The company also doesn't rule out the need to seek another rate hike beyond thatprojected increase. The increases are necessary, Northern Utilities argues in its filing to the Maine PublicUtilities Commission, because the company is not collecting enough money from ratepayers to cover higher-priced gas. Worldwide demand for natural gas is driving up its cost. Locally, Northern Utilities is

experiencing strong demand for its product from homes and businesses fleeing record-high heating oilprices. At oil's current price, gas would still be much cheaper than home heating oil this winter if

regulators approve the projected rate increases for gas.

Demand for natural gas is high now.

Kevin Miller, staff writer, 7-28-08, http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2411666~ title_Regulators-Vent-Over.html, Regulators Vent Over Delays in LNG Proposals, Bangor Daily News,

Demand for natural gas is increasing throughout the U.S. as the price of oil continues to rise . The FederalEnergy Regulatory Commission now is considering applications for LNG terminals all along the U.S.coast. Critics of the two Passamaquoddy Bay projects point out that several other proposals would be located

closer to the big metropolitan areas of the Northeast.

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Uniqueness NG Demand IncreasingDemand for natural gas is rising its a safer and better fuel.

Mohammed Shahidehpour, Yong Fu, and Thomas Wiedman, Professor in the Electrical and Computer Engineering Departmentand Director of the Electric Power and Power Electronics Center @ Illinois Institute of Technology, Electrical Engineering from

Shanghai Jiaotong University, Senior Member of the IEEE Power Engineering Society, 5-05, Impact of Natural Gas Infrastructure onElectric Power Systems,http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/5/30830/1428016/1428016.html,

The natural gas infrastructure in the United States accounts for 25% of the nation's primary energy consumption(including heating and other applications). The consumption of natural gas has increased by roughly 14% in the pastdecade and is expected to grow by over 50% over the next 20 years, as shown inFig. 1 [1], [2].Fig. 2 shows that in theyears 19972001, natural gas provided about 24% of the U.S. electricity generation[3].

The continuing and rapid growth in gas-fired electric power generating plants (e.g., combined-cycle units) will consume alarger share of the forecasted increase in natural gas demand in the coming decades.

In Fig. 3,the amount of natural gas used for electricity generation is projected to triple by 2020[2]. Seven states(Rhode Island, New York, Delaware, Louisiana, Texas, California, and Alaska) currently obtain over one-third of their electricity

generation from natural gas. The primary reason for this increase is that the natural gas is the preferred fuel for more than96% of the 200 new generation projects in the United States. This dramatic shift to natural gas is further driven byimproved efficiencies, lower capital costs, reduced construction time, more expeditious permitting, and environmental compliance ofnatural gas-burning combined-cycle units.

The possibility of replacing coal and oil burning plants with natural gas plants could greatly improve the sustainabilityof forests, waters, and farmlands, which are negatively affected by acid deposition. It is imperative to recognize thatno new nuclear capacity construction is projected in the near future and an estimated 15 GW of nuclear generation capacity isprojected for retirement by 2015 as some licenses expire. Nuclear retirements could further increase the need for natural gasinfrastructure in the 2015 time frame.

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Uniqueness NG Demand IncreasingDemand will increase(Ehrenman, Gayle 4-_-03 Demand--and price--rise for natural gas Mechanical Engineering,http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa5325/is_200304/ai_n21329197)

All told, America's demand for natural gas is expected to reach 36 trillion cubic feet in 2025, up from 22.6 trillion cubicfeet in 2002, according to Senate Energy Chairman Pete Domenici (R-N.M.). Most of that gas will be used to generateelectricity, Domenici said in a committee hearing on the rising demand for natural gas. He estimates that US. natural gasconsumption for electricity will double in the next 22 years. "We can't meet that demand without new production on theOuter Continental Shelf or Alaska's North Slope," Domenici said in a prepared statement. "The lower 48 states alone can'tsupply this country with the gas it is going to need. If we decide not to increase production, we must accept our growingreliance on foreign natural gas as a way of life."

Demand production gap will grow(Ehrenman, Gayle 4-_-03 Demand--and price--rise for natural gas Mechanical Engineering,http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa5325/is_200304/ai_n21329197)

While demand is growing by 1.8 percent a year, natural gas production is expected to increase by only 1.3 percent a year,

creating a widening gap between demand and supply, according to Domenici. Natural gas currently represents 24 percent of all

energy consumed in the United States, according to the Energy Information Agency. By 2020, it is expected to represent 26 percentand will account for 33 percent of all electricity consumed. Currently, the US. imports 16 percent of its natural gas; by 2025, thatfigure is expected to rise to 22 percent.

Natural gas demand is high now.

PR Newswire, 7-15-08, Summer Natural Gas Costs at Unprecedented Highs, Congressional Action Long Overdue to AddressRising Energy Costs http://www.marketwatch.com/news/ story/summer-natural-gas-costs-unprecedented/story.aspx?guid={EA0206D0-1238-4213-A198-1A0D37E4141C}&dist=hppr, [Crystal Xia]

Summer 2008 natural gas commodity costs are now twice as high as the

June/July costs in any previous year. The July 2008 price, which recently closed atmore than $13 per dekatherm, even eclipses prices from the previous winter heatingseason, which averaged around $8 per unit, according to the New York Mercantile Exchangemonthly settlement prices.

In prior years, the price of gas has dropped significantly in the summer as theuse of natural gas for space heating decreased. This pattern afforded utilities the opportunity to

refill their storage fields at lower prices, which led to lower prices in the following winter

(compared to the daily spot market) when the gas was used by customers. Now that moreelectric utilities are turning to natural gas to produce electricity, year-rounddemand for natural gas is more constant, and this increase in demand has led tounprecedented summer costs.

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Demand for natural gas is high now offshore drilling proves

Market Watch, 7/14/08, NOIA Applauds Lifting of Executive Prohibition of Federal Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling, PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX, http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/noia-applauds-lifting-executive-prohibition/story.aspx?guid=%7B9DD97BD5-D6FE-44AE-BCF9-3A3AA1DB1A61%7D&dist=hppr

The National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA) commends today's historic action by President George W. Bush which lifts the18-year-old Executive Withdrawal of much of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) for oil and gas exploration and drilling."The President took a major step today toward reversing a flawed public policy that for decades has prevented energy supply fromkeeping pace with increasing demand," said Tom Fry, president of NOIA.About 85 percent of the OCS has been off limits to hydrocarbon development for nearly three decades . In addition to today'srevocation of the Presidential Withdrawal, a 26-year-old Congressional moratorium on hydrocarbon development must also be liftedin order to fully open up the OCS to oil and natural gas exploration and production."While the President's move will not solve all of the nation's energy challenges, it sends a strong signal to Congress that it is time toend the annual Congressional moratoria," said Fry. "It also acknowledges growing public support for increased domesticoffshore production of hydrocarbons."The Minerals Management Service (MMS) estimates that there are 18 billion barrels of untapped oil and 76.5 trillion cubic feet ofuntapped natural gas in the portion of the OCS currently off limits to oil and gas production. "Those estimates are likely conservative,

since the very policies that have put the majority of the OCS off limits to hydrocarbon development have prevented industry fromusing modern technology to assess untapped resources," said Fry. "In short, industry is relying on estimates based on 1970'stechnology."The 15 percent of Outer Continental Shelf currently open to hydrocarbon exploration and development supplies 27 percent ofAmerica's domestic oil production and about 15 percent of our domestic natural gas production."We are the only nation in the world that consistently limits access to our own domestic resources, despite a long record of safe andenvironmentally-responsible exploration and production of offshore oil and gas," Fry said. "In light of rapidly growing globaldemand for hydrocarbons, and the resulting negative impacts on the American economy and overall quality of life, the locking

up of U.S. energy resources makes absolutely no sense ."

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Uniqueness Demand will stay high

Natural gas demands will stay high through 2009

Targeted News Service 08( Rising Natural Gas Prices And Lower Hydroelectric Power Supplies Expected To Increase Electricity Costs, June 10,Lexis)

In 2008, natural gas prices have increased by 30 percent and are forecasted to remain high in 2009. Soaringnatural gas prices are caused by a tight supply-demand balance in the national market, lower imports ofliquefied natural gas, and the rising cost of crude oil. Because much of the nation's electric supply isgenerated by plants using natural gas, increased gas costs are also affecting electric prices.

Demand for natural gas in the United States is rising

Alan Greenspan 04Federal Reserve Board, 4-27-04, Energy, http://www.csis.org/energy/040427_greenspan.pdf

Today's tight natural gas markets have been a long time in coming. Little more than a

half-century ago, drillers seeking valuable crude oil bemoaned the discovery ofnatural

gas. Given the lack of adequate transportation, wells had to be capped or the gas flared.As the U.S. economy expanded after World War II, the development of a vast interstate

transmission system facilitated widespread consumption ofnatural gas in our homes and

business establishments. By 1970, natural gas consumption, on a heat-equivalent basis,

had risen to three-fourths that of oil. But in the following decade consumption laggedbecause of competitive inroads made by coal and nuclear power. Since 1985, natural gashas gradually increased its share in total energy use and,owing to its status as a clean-burning fuel, is projected by the Energy Information Administration of the United Statestomaintain that higher share over the next quarter century. Dramatic changes in technology in

recent years, while making existing natural gas reserves stretch further, have been unable, in

the face ofinexorably rising demand, to keep the underlying long-term price for natural gas inthe United States from rising.

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Uniqueness NG demand Decreasing

Natural Gas demand is low

RTT News 7/22 (NASDAQ, Natural Gas Dips To Six-Week Low, http://www.nasdaq.com)

Natural gas plunged to a fresh six-week low on Tuesday, following the lead of crude oil. August natural gasclosed at $11.48 per million British thermal units, down 48.2 cents on the session. Prices fell as low as $11.376.Prices closed modestly higher on Monday, up 5.5 cents on the session. Prices climbed as high as 12.137.Natural gas slipped on Friday and finished down 40 cents on the day. Prices touched as low as $11.812, takingout the lows from earlier in the week. Prices climbed on Thursday as traders considered a rise in crude oil pricesand natural gas inventory data. Traders looked ahead to Thursday's inventory data from the Energy InformationAdministration. Last week's report indicated that natural gas inventories were up 90 billion cubic feet to 2,208bcf in the week ended July 4. Analysts were looking for a rise of about 100 bcf. Stocks were down 389 bcf fromthe year-ago pace and down 70 bcf from the five-year average. Stockpiles were up 85 billion cubic feet in theprior week. Oil saw its largest single-day drop in more than 17 years on Tuesday as demand concerns led tradersto sell energy commodities. Light sweet crude for August delivery ended the session $138.74, down $6.44 onthe session. Oil touched as low as $135.92 following a sharp drop around the 11 a.m. ET. In electronic tradingbefore the open, oil moved as high as $146.73, taking out Monday's high, before heading sharply lower.Traders indicate they feel demand could drop as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a bleakeconomic outlook to Congress on Tuesday. Bernanke said downside risks to economic growth have increasedwhile at the same time the upside risks to inflation have intensified since he last testified in February.

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Demand satisfied now new lease means we wont need gas for 2 years anyway

Jon Hurdle, a freelance writer who has written for many business publications, 7/14/08, Pa. invites bids for leases on possible gasfield, Reuters, http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1447555220080714

Pennsylvania officials on Monday invited bids to lease land atop a geological formation that may hold enough natural gas to

meet total U.S. demand for two years.The state's Department of Conservation and Natural Resources said it will hold a lease sale from pre-qualified bidders for 18 tracts ofstate forest totaling some 74,000 acres in two north-central Pennsylvania counties. The bidding will be open until Sept. 2.The tracts sit over the Marcellus Shale formation, a natural feature about a mile deep that has been known about for years but

which has only recently been suspected of containing massive quantities of natural gas.The formation, which stretches some 600 miles between western New York State and West Virginia, could contain as much as 50trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, or enough to supply the entire U.S. for two years, at a wellhead value of $1 trillion,according to website geology.com.The recoverable quantity may represent about a tenth of the total gas in the formation, some scientists believe.The estimates came from Pennsylvania State University geoscience professor Terry Englander and New York State University geologyprofessor Gary Lash, the website said."Given the enormity of the nation's energy demand, making less than an addition 4 percent of our state forest available fordrilling is a reasonable decision that protects our forest ecosystem and helps meet energy demands," DCNR Secretary MichaelDiBerardinis said in a statement."This lease sale responds to increased interest in the Marcellus Shale formation, a deep resource thought to contain largequantities of natural gas," the department's statement said. It noted that new technology and increased natural gas prices have

made it possible to recover hard-to-reach fuel.

Demand low now BC reserves are massive and recently tapped into

NORVAL SCOTT, correspondent of Dow Jones Newswires, 7/15/08, Reportonbuisiness.com, With prices high, B.C. gas is hot,http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080715.RSHELLBC15/TPStory/Business

While B.C. contains huge amounts of natural gas, those assets are mostly locked in tight formations of shale rock that prevent thegas from flowing freely into wells. Recent technological breakthroughs allow the shale to be fractured more easily, enabling thegas to be extracted

As a result, companies such as Duvernay, which holds tracts of land in the Montney that could contain over one trillion cubicfeet of gas, have seen their share price double over the past twelve months. Montney is estimated to hold 50 trillion cubic feet ofreserves - more than in all of Alberta .While Duvernay was keen to continue developing its assets and wasn't looking to sell, Shell approached the company in July with itsoffer and negotiations proceeded smoothly from that point, Duvernay CEO Mr. Rose said in an interv

128 ss natural gas generic redux

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