12 lessons from recent philippine disasters - dr. alfredo mahar francisco a. lagmay
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Lessons from recent
Philippine disasters
Alfredo Mahar Francisco A. LagmayNational Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the
Philippines
U.P. Academic Forum on Climate Change Photo from Boston.com
![Page 2: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Dec 2005 Typhoon Quedon
Mindoro Flooding US$ 0.5 million
![Page 3: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Feb. 17, 2006 Guinsaugon landslide 1126 dead US$ 2.203 million
![Page 4: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
GuinsaugonPopulation = 1,857
![Page 5: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Nov. 30, 2006 Typhoon Durian 1399 dead US$ 66.4 million
![Page 6: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Padang
Bongga
DaragaCamalig
Basud
Guinobatan
![Page 7: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
June 20, 2008 Typhoon Fenshen 644 dead US$ 135 million
![Page 8: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
1. Timely and accurate prediction of rainfall
(TRMM and automated rain/river
gauges)
2. Accurate Topography
(Light Detection and Ranging)
Advanced technologies needed for
disaster mitigation
![Page 13: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission
• Armed with both a passive microwave
sensor and a space-borne precipitation
radar
• The primary objective of the Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (better
known as TRMM) is to measure rainfall
from space.
![Page 15: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
NASA SATELLITE GREATLY IMPROVES
ACCURACY OF TROPICAL RAINFALL
FORECASTING
NASA, Jan 12, 2000 by David E. Steitz, Allen Kenitzer, Stephanie Kenitzer
New research shows that adding rainfall data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and other meteorological satellites to forecast models can more than triple the accuracy of short-term rainfall forecasts.
These model properties are then used to predict the rainfall for three days into the future, with remarkable success.
![Page 16: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
TRMM uses
• Alternative and supplement to ground-
based observations for cost-effective flood
prediction in under-gauged regions
• NASA Applied Science Program in
partnership with USAID and African-
RCMRD to implement an operational
water-hazard warning system
• To build disaster management capacity
![Page 17: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Latest 3 Hourly Global Rainfall
![Page 20: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Latest Week of Global Rainfall
Accumulation
![Page 21: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Latest hurricanes and typhoons
observed by the TRMM satellite.
![Page 22: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Telemetric rain gauge data sent
directly to NASA ground validation
team via the internet
Designs of UP (CP David)
and Ateneo (MO)
To be put in cell phone
towers and churches.
+ project rain gauge
![Page 24: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Hazard map scales
National Scale
• 1:50,000-1:100,000
• Accuracy is low -
Whole river basin
• Broad scale planning for major emergencies
• Members of public are interested in flood risk that applies to them
Local scale
• 1:5,000 to 1:25,000
• Accuracy is high - Cadastral level; Lidar
• Planning of localised emergency response (i.e. evacuation and access routes, road closures)
• Public awareness
![Page 25: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Accurate local level,
high resolution
hazard maps is a
key element to effective
disaster preparedness!
![Page 26: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
2m Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 27: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
1m Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 28: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
50cm Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 29: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
25cm Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 30: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 31: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 32: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Optech Lynx™
Mobile Mapper
Mobile
Terrestrial
LIDAR
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 33: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 34: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
United Kingdom Philippines
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 35: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Integrated spatial data
Flood risk model, 48 hour event
(Model type = 2D, Tuflow model, 1m resolution LIDAR data used)
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 36: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Modelling Flood Depth
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 37: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Modelling Flood Velocity
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK
![Page 38: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Integrated spatial data
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.
Scenario 6: Fluvial Flood Model – 7 Return Periods
Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
![Page 39: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Integrated spatial data
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.
Scenario 2: Fluvial 1 in 2 year, Tidal 1 in 200 year, Plus Climate Change
Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
![Page 40: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Integrated spatial data
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.
Scenario 1: Fluvial 1 in 2 year, Tidal 1 in 200 year
Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
![Page 41: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Integrated spatial data
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.
Scenario 3: Fluvial 1 in 100 year, MHWS Tide
Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
![Page 42: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Integrated spatial data
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.
Scenario 4: Fluvial 1 in 100 year, MHWS Tide, Plus Climate Change
Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
![Page 43: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Integrated spatial data
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.
Scenario 5: Flood Zones Map – 1 in 1,000 year modelled flood
Viewpoint A
X = 542290
Y = 108900
Z = 400m
Direction 346
![Page 44: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
GIS enabled website – OS Topographic Map
![Page 45: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
GIS enabled website – Aerial Photography
![Page 46: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
GIS enabled website – Historic Flood Map
![Page 47: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
GIS enabled website – Modelled Flood Map
![Page 48: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Investing in knowledge
• Space-based radar, automated rain/river
gauge systems and LIDAR are all readily
available.
• Any serious hazard mitigation program
would have to capitalize on these
technologies.
![Page 49: 12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050804/553e2d304a79597c268b4894/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)