1.1.objectives 6 - waipa district awamutu hub... · 1.1.objectives ..... 6 ... executive summary...

1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................... 5

1.1. OBJECTIVES ................................................................... 6

1.2. INFORMATION AND DATA SOURCES .................................. 7

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................ 8

3. TE AWAMUTU CORE ECONOMIC MARKET ................................ 10

4. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ................................................... 11

5. POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ............................ 12

6. RETAIL EXPENDITURE AND SUSTAINABLE GFA ....................... 13

6.1. RETAIL EXPENDITURE .................................................... 15

6.2. SUSTAINABLE RETAIL GFA FORECASTS ........................... 16

7. CURRENT TE AWAMUTU CATCHMENT RETAIL SUPPLY .............. 18

8. RETAIL SPENDING PATTERNS ............................................... 23

8.1. DESTINATION CORE CATCHMENT RETAIL SPENDING ......... 24

8.2. ORIGIN OF CORE CATCHMENT CENTRE RETAIL SPENDING . 26

8.3. NET RETAIL FLOWS ....................................................... 28

9. TE AWAMUTU EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ..................................... 31

9.1. EMPLOYMENT RETENTION .............................................. 33

10.COMMERCIAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ................. 35

10.1. COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS ........................... 36

11.TE AWAMUTU HUB ............................................................... 38

APPENDIX : 1 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING .................................. 43

APPENDIX : 2 RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL .............................. 46

APPENDIX 3: BUSINESS CLASSIFICATIONS ................................. 52

TABLE 1: TE AWAMUTU CATCHMENT RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECASTS ($M/PA) ............. 15

TABLE 2: TE AWAMUTU CATCHMENT SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECASTS (SQM) .................... 17

TABLE 3: TE AWAMUTU CATCHMENT RETAIL AUDIT APRIL 2016 ..................................... 18

TABLE 4: TE AWAMUTU RETAIL STORE SIZE BREAKDOWN ............................................. 22

TABLE 5: TE AWAMUTU EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY INDUSTRY......................................... 31

TABLE 6: WAIKATO REGION COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT RETENTION RATES .................. 33

TABLE 7: WAIPA COMMERCIAL SECTOR GROWTH PROJECTIONS (2014-2043) ................. 35

TABLE 8: TE AWAMUTU COMMERCIAL SECTOR GROWTH PROJECTIONS (2014-2043) ....... 35

TABLE 9: ADDITIONAL COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS IN TE AWAMUTU ................. 37

FIGURE 1: TE AWAMUTU’S INDICATIVE CORE MARKET .................................................. 10

FIGURE 2: TE AWAMUTU CORE MARKET POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS .... 12

FIGURE 3: PROPERTY ECONOMICS EXPENDITURE MODEL PROCESS ............................... 14

FIGURE 4: TE AWAMUTU RETAIL COMPOSITION MARCH 2016 ........................................ 20

FIGURE 5: DESTINATION SPENDING (EXCLUDING SUPERMARKETS) ............................... 24

FIGURE 6: DESTINATION OF SUPERMARKETS SPENDING .............................................. 25

FIGURE 7: ORIGIN SPENDING (EXCLUDING SUPERMARKETS) ........................................ 26

FIGURE 8: ORIGIN SPEND OF SUPERMARKETS ............................................................. 27

FIGURE 9: TE AWAMUTU NET POSITION BY SECTOR (EXCLUDING SUPERMARKETS) ......... 28

FIGURE 10: TE AWAMUTU NET POSITION OF THE SUPERMARKET SECTOR ....................... 29

FIGURE 11: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY CATEGORY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD (2000-2014) ...................................................................................................................... 32

FIGURE 12: TE AWAMUTU HUB PRECINCT .................................................................... 39

24,371 25,263

26,292 27,197

28,039 28,766 29,300

9,592 10,056 10,638 11,194 11,651 11,953 12,175

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2016 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043

PO

PU

TLATIO

N &

HO

USEH

OLD

S

Population Households

Total Retail Spending

Household Spending

Business Spending

Physical Retail Stores

Internet Spending

Visitor Spending

TOTAL RETAIL SPEND 2016 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043

Food retailing $89 $92 $100 $108 $117 $126 $135

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories

retailing$15 $16 $17 $19 $20 $22 $24

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile

goods retailing$8 $8 $9 $10 $11 $11 $12

Electrical and electronic goods retailing $11 $11 $12 $13 $14 $15 $16

Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing $8 $9 $10 $10 $11 $12 $13

Department stores $18 $18 $20 $22 $23 $25 $27

Recreational goods retailing $10 $10 $11 $12 $13 $14 $15

Other goods retailing $15 $16 $18 $19 $21 $23 $25

Food and beverage services $43 $44 $49 $53 $58 $63 $69

Total $218 $224 $246 $266 $287 $311 $334

SUSTAINABLE GFA 2016 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043

Food retailing 12,410 12,780 14,000 15,110 16,290

17,580

18,850

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories

retailing3,100 3,200 3,500 3,800 4,110

4,450

4,780

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile

goods retailing3,240 3,340 3,630 3,900 4,160

4,440

4,710

Electrical and electronic goods retailing 3,370 3,470 3,780 4,050 4,320

4,620

4,900

Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing 1,340 1,380 1,510 1,630 1,750

1,880

2,010

Department stores 7,240 7,450 8,150 8,790 9,450

10,180

10,880

Recreational goods retailing 2,900 2,990 3,280 3,540 3,830

4,140

4,460

Other goods retailing 3,800 3,920 4,330 4,710 5,130

5,600

6,070

Food and beverage services 7,670 7,900 8,720 9,510 10,360

11,320

12,290

Total 45,070 46,430 50,900 55,040 59,400 64,210 68,950

ANZSIC06 RETAIL CLASSIFICAITONS Store # GFA # Store % GFA %

Supermarket retailing 3 11,770 2% 24%

Food retailing 15 2,730 10% 6%

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing 18 2,300 12% 6%

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods

retailing9 4,970 6% 10%

Electrical and electronic goods retailing 5 2,030 3% 4%

Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing 4 850 3% 2%

Department stores 1 5,200 1% 11%

Recreational goods retailing 5 1,080 3% 2%

Other goods retailing 28 6,730 19% 14%

Food and beverage services 52 8,640 35% 18%

Vacant 8 1,790 5% 4%

Total 148 48,470 100% 100%

TE A

WA

MU

TU

RETA

IL A

UD

IT (

20

16

)

5%4%

35%

18%

19%

14%

3%

2%

11%

3%

2%

3%

4%

6%

10%

12%

6%

10%

6%

2%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Store % GFA %

Supermarket retailing

Food retailing

Clothing, footwear andpersonal accessories retailing

Furniture, floor coverings,houseware and textile goodsretailing

Electrical and electronic goodsretailing

Pharmaceutical and personalcare goods retailing

Department stores

Recreational goods retailing

Other goods retailing

Food and beverage services

Vacant

ANZSIC06 RETAIL CLASSIFICAITONS 0-499 500-999 1000+ Total 0-499 500-999 1000+ Total

Supermarket retailing 3 3 11,770 11,770

Food retailing 15 15 2,730 2,730

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing 17 1 18 1,800 900 2,700

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods

retailing6 2 1 9 1,790 1,380 1,800 4,970

Electrical and electronic goods retailing 3 2 5 610 1,420 2,030

Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing 4 4 850 850

Department stores 1 1 5,200 5,200

Recreational goods retailing 5 5 1,080 1,080

Other goods retailing 26 1 1 28 4,860 670 1,180 6,710

Food and beverage services 49 3 52 6,590 2,050 8,640

Vacant 8 8 1,790 1,790

Total 133 9 6 148 22,080 6,450 19,940 48,470

Total % 90% 6% 4% 100% 46% 13% 41% 100%

38%

6%

35%

4%

7%

3%5%

3%Te Awamutu

Balance of Waipa District

Hamilton City

Otorohanga District

Balance of Waikato

Auckland Region

Tauranga City

Balance of North Island

South Island

68%

7%

14%

3%2%

2%Te Awamutu


Hamilton City

Otorohanga District

Balance of Waikato

Auckland Region

Tauranga City


South Island

43%

17%

7%

11%

9%

3%7%

Te Awamutu


Hamilton City

Otorohanga District

Balance of Waikato

Auckland Region


South Island & International

50%

18%

6%

12%

7%

3% Te Awamutu


Hamilton City

Otorohanga District

Balance of Waikato

Auckland Region


South Island and International

25%

41%

37%

41%

38%

-75%

-59%

-63%

-59%

-62%

29%

54%

47%

58%

50%

53%

96%

85%

98%

87%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%

Clothing, footwear and softgoods

Department Stores/Pharmaceutical/Other Store-Based

Electrical/Furniture/Recreational Goods

Food and beverage services

Overall Net Position

RETENTION LEAKAGE INFLOW

68%-32% 69% 138%

-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% 150%

Supermarkets/Other Food and Liquor

RETENTION LEAKAGE INFLOW

Core Catchment 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 % Growth

Industrial 1,448 1,565 1,733 1,764 1,903 1,673 1,741 1,932 33%

Retail 1,004 1,001 1,006 1,068 1,129 1,075 1,233 1,254 25%

Commercial 858 927 1,543 1,313 1,283 1,329 1,364 1,426 66%

Other 2,181 2,338 2,397 2,501 2,564 2,688 2,812 2,799 28%

Total 5,491 5,830 6,680 6,645 6,879 6,765 7,150 7,411 35%

1,448

1,903 1,932

1,0041,129

1,254

858

1,283

1,426

2,181

2,564

2,799

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

NU

MB

ER O

F P

EOP

LE E

MP

LOYE

D

Industrial Retail Commercial Other

Waikato RegionEmployed Labour

Force

Employment

Count 2014

Retention

Rate %

Core Catchment 12,515 7,411 59%

Waipa District 25,039 16,657 67%

Waikato District 32,447 15,978 49%

South Waikato District 9,182 7,769 85%

Otorohanga District 4,643 3,533 76%

Matamata-Piako District 15,683 13,362 85%

Thames-Coromandel District 11,300 9,440 84%

Hamilton City 71,038 78,978 111%

Waitomo District 3,954 4,419 112%

Taupo District 16,419 14,602 89%

Hauraki District 7,516 5,801 77%

Waipa 2014 2023 2033 2043 % Growth

Commercial Sectors 2,925 3,334 3,627 4,681 60%

Te Awamutu 2014 2023 2033 2043 % Growth

Commercial Sectors 1,426 1,586 1,725 2,226 56%

Te Awamutu Commercial Land Requirements 2023 2033 2043 Total

Commercial Employment Growth 1,586 1,725 2,226 640

Net Commercial Land Requirements (sqm) 4,457 3,393 12,580 20,430

Core Catchment Waipa District Waikato Region

Population 24,371 49,917 434,359

Households 9,592 19,527 169,915

Person Per Dwelling Ratio 2.54 2.56 2.56

0–4 Years 7% 7% 7%

5–9 Years 7% 7% 7%

10–14 Years 7% 7% 7%

15–19 Years 7% 7% 7%

20–24 Years 5% 5% 7%

25–29 Years 5% 5% 6%

30–34 Years 5% 5% 6%

35–39 Years 6% 6% 6%

40–44 Years 7% 7% 7%

45–49 Years 7% 8% 7%

50–54 Years 7% 8% 7%

55–59 Years 7% 6% 6%

60–64 Years 6% 6% 5%

65 years and Over 16% 16% 15%

$20,000 or Less 9% 9% 12%

$20,001–$30,000 12% 11% 12%

$30,001–$50,000 19% 17% 19%

$50,001–$70,000 16% 15% 15%

$70,001–$100,000 21% 20% 19%

$100,001 or More 24% 28% 24%

$5,000 or Less 12% 12% 14%

$5,001–$10,000 4% 4% 5%

$10,001–$20,000 18% 17% 19%

$20,001–$30,000 15% 14% 14%

$30,001–$50,000 24% 23% 22%

$50,001 or More 27% 30% 25%

European Ethnic Groups 77% 82% 69%

Mäori Ethnic Group 17% 13% 19%

Pacific Peoples' Ethnic Groups 1% 1% 3%

Asian Ethnic Groups 2% 3% 6%

MELAA Ethnic Groups 0% 0% 1%

Other Ethnic Groups 2% 2% 2%

No Qualification 27% 23% 25%

Level 1 Certificate 16% 15% 15%




Level 5 or Level 6 Diploma 9% 10% 9%

Bachelor Degree and Level 7 Qualifications 9% 11% 11%

Postgraduate and Honours Degrees 2% 2% 2%

Masters Degree 1% 2% 2%

Doctorate Degree 0% 1% 1%

Overseas Secondary School Qualification 4% 5% 5%

GEN

ERA

LA

GE

PR

OFI

LEH

OU

SEH

OLD

INC

OM

E

PER

SON

AL

INC

OM

EET

HN

ICIT

YQ

UA

LIFI

CA

TIO

N A

TTA

INM

ENT


Employed - Full Time 50% 51% 47%

Employed - Part Time 15% 15% 15%

Unemployed 4% 3% 5%

Not in Labour Force 32% 31% 33%

Managers 22% 23% 21%

Professionals 17% 19% 20%

Technicians and Trades Workers 13% 12% 12%

Community and Personal Service Workers 9% 9% 8%

Clerical and Administrative Workers 12% 12% 11%

Sales Workers 9% 9% 9%

Machinery Operators and Drivers 6% 5% 6%

Labourers 12% 12% 13%

Full Time 8% 9% 10%

Part Time 4% 4% 4%

Full-time and Part-time Study 0% 0% 0%

Not Studying 88% 88% 86%

Wages, Salary, Commissions, Bonuses etc 67% 69% 66%

Self-employment or Business 23% 26% 22%

Interest, Dividends, Rent, Other Invest. 26% 29% 24%

Payments from a Work Accident Insurer 2% 2% 2%

NZ Superannuation or Veterans Pension 23% 23% 22%

Other Super., Pensions, Annuities 3% 3% 3%

Unemployment Benefit 2% 2% 4%

Sickness Benefit 2% 2% 3%

Domestic Purposes Benefit 4% 4% 5%

Invalids Benefit 3% 3% 3%

Student Allowance 2% 2% 3%

Other Govt Benefits, Payments or Pension 6% 6% 6%

Other Sources of Income 2% 2% 2%

No Source of Income During That Time 0% 0% 0%

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 21% 17% 14%

Mining 0% 0% 0%

Manufacturing 8% 8% 11%

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 1% 1% 1%

Construction 7% 8% 8%

Wholesale Trade 4% 5% 4%

Retail Trade 10% 9% 10%

Accommodation and Food Services 3% 4% 6%

Transport, Postal and Warehousing 4% 3% 3%

Information Media and Telecommunications 1% 1% 1%

Financial and Insurance Services 2% 2% 2%

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 2% 2% 2%

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 6% 7% 7%

Administrative and Support Services 2% 3% 3%

Public Administration and Safety 5% 4% 4%

Education and Training 8% 9% 8%

Health Care and Social Assistance 11% 10% 10%

Arts and Recreation Services 1% 2% 2%

Other Services 4% 4% 4%

EMP

LOY

MEN

T

CLA

SSIF

ICA

TIO

N

STU

DEN

T

RA

TIO

HO

USE

HO

LD IN

CO

ME

SOU

RC

ESIN

DU

STR

Y O

F EM

PLO

YM

ENT

EMP

LOY

ME

NT


Single 23% 23% 23%

Couple 32% 33% 30%

Single Parent With Children 13% 11% 13%

Two Parent Family 29% 31% 28%

Other Multi-person 3% 3% 4%

1 Residents 23% 23% 23%

2 Residents 37% 37% 36%

3 Residents 15% 16% 16%

4 Residents 14% 15% 14%

5 Residents 7% 7% 7%



8 Plus Residents 0% 0% 1%

Dwelling Owned or Partly Owned 52% 52% 49%

Dwelling Not Owned and Not Held in a Family Trust 32% 30% 37%

Dwelling Held in a Family Trust 16% 18% 14%

0 Years 21% 21% 23%

1–4 Years 29% 30% 30%

5–9 Years 22% 23% 21%

10–14 Years 11% 11% 10%

15–29 Years 11% 11% 11%

30 Years or More 5% 4% 5%

One Bedroom 3% 3% 4%

Two Bedrooms 13% 14% 16%

Three Bedrooms 51% 47% 48%

Four Bedrooms 27% 29% 25%

Five Bedrooms 5% 6% 6%

Six Bedrooms 1% 1% 1%

Seven Bedrooms 0% 0% 0%

Eight or More Bedrooms 0% 0% 0%

Under $100 8% 7% 9%

$100–$149 10% 9% 8%

$150–$199 10% 8% 14%

$200–$249 18% 15% 14%

$250–$299 34% 26% 19%

$300–$349 18% 22% 18%

$350 and Over 2% 15% 18%

YEA

RS

AT

RES

IDEN

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NU

MB

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F B

EDR

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MS

WEE

KLY

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T P

AID

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USE

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1.1.objectives 6 - waipa district awamutu hub... · 1.1.objectives ..... 6 ... executive summary...

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