111 ptpa may 2009 programming in digital era david j. leroy chad davis with commentary from craig...
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PTPA May 2009111
Programming in Digital Era
David J. LeRoyChad Davis
With commentary fromCraig Reed
Multicasting in a 4 Screen World
PTPA May 2009222
Things That Do Not Change
The pubTV audience today is like the audience of 50 years ago!
Cume or reach Rating or GRPs Mechanics of Dayparts
Page 3 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company
Median Age of Prime Time TV Viewers1
0
10 11
21
39 4
4
44 4
8
48
48 50 5
3 58
58
58 61 63
63 6
6
2
12
22
32
42
52
62
72
NIC
K
TO
ON
DS
NY
MT
V
DIS
C
ES
PN
FO
X A
ffili
ate
s
AB
C A
ffili
ate
s
NB
C A
ffili
ate
s
NG
C
HIS
T
CB
S A
ffili
ate
s
CN
BC
HL
N
MS
NB
C
PB
S A
ffili
ate
s
CN
N
HA
LL
FO
XN
C
Source: NPM Sample, May, 2007
Page 4 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company
Stations & Channels
1950 3.8 N/A
1976 7.7 N/A
1980 9.0 N/A
1985 11.0 18.8
1990 11.7 33.2
1995 13.0 41.1
2000 13.5 61.4
2004 16.4 92.6
2005 16.3 96.4
2006 17.5 104.2
2007 16.1 118.6
BroadcastStations
AllChannels
AverageChannelsTuned
AverageChannelsReceivable
118.6
132.3
Total U.S.
Cable +ADS
16.0 17.4
B’Cast Only
16.3
4.3• Copyright 2008 Nielsen Media Research
Page 5 Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright © 2007 The Nielsen Company
Average Hours of TV Usage Per Week
57:3757:3957:1756:0752:35
50:00 48:2950:42
46:0643:42
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007
Seasonal Swings
Winter (Jan-Feb) vs. Annual
Summer (Jul-Aug) vs. Annual
+13
-15
+12
-10
+11
-7
+7
-6
+8
-5
+6
-4
Audimeter National People Meter
% D
iffe
ren
ce
• Copyright 2008 Nielsen Media Research
+5
-3
Annual
+5
-3
Total Day
+5
-3
+4
-2
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Myths from Chicken Littles
Cable will eat our lunch Digital Video Recorders will
let people program us out of existence
Internet will finish us off OMG Mobile is going too…
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Case Study: DVRs
The revolution that never happened People can view more original episodes
of their favorite programming Big help for Pubcasters since DVRs help
build loyalty and GRPs Even helps in pledge… playback right
away Time shifting still affected by dayparts
Page 8 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
DVR Playback by hour – P18-49
1.0% 1.
5% 2.0% 2.
5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.
4%
3.5% 3.6% 4.
0%
4.7%
5.8%
7.5%
9.6%
11.6
%
10.7
%
7.5%
4.9%
3.0%
1.9%
1.6%
0.9%
0.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:0
0 A
M
11:0
0 A
M
12:0
0 P
M
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:0
0 P
M
11:0
0 P
M
12:0
0 A
M
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
DVR Playback
Live PUT
Live+DVR Playback
Live +7 PUT
Percentage of DVR Playback November 2008 sweep
Page 9 Confidential & Proprietary Copyright © 2008 The Nielsen Company
Distribution of Playback in Prime – P18-49
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Live + 1hour
Live + 2hours
Live + 3hours
Live +SD
Live + 1day
Live + 2days
Live + 3days
Live + 4days
Live + 5days
Live + 6days
8PM
9PM
10PM
ABC, CBS, CW FOX and NBC
November 2008 sweep
Video Consumer Mapping Study Council for Research Excellence 10•
Measuring Video Is Becoming A Multi-Platform, Multi-Place Challenge
10
Video Consumer Mapping Study Council for Research Excellence 11•
The Observational Method
11
Video
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Here is the Epiphany
Look at the most used media by 18-24 year olds… Live TV
The Internet has replaced radio as the 2nd most used medium
Boomers are the tipping point of Internet Use and Live TV
Video Consumer Mapping Study Council for Research Excellence 13•
Except for those 45-54, 4-screen totals all add to 8½ hrs +/-2%
Except for those 45-54, 4-screen totals all add to 8½ hrs +/-2%
Live TV: 309minPlayback via DVR: 15minDVD or VCR: 23minConsole games: 7min
Web: 49min
Email: 37min
IM: 8min
Software: 46min
Computer video: 2min
Mobile talk: 17minMobile text: 2min
Mobile web: 1minMobile other (e.g. camera, etc): 0.5minMobile video: 0.1min
Environmental /Other video: 4minIn-Cinema movie: 2min
GPS navigation: 2min
1st scre
en
2st scre
en
3rd
scre
en
4th s
cre
en
1st screen 2nd screen 3rd 4th
8½ hrs
8½ hrs
8½ hrs – 2%
8½ hrs + 1%
9½ hrs+ 1%
8½ hrs
It is widely recognized that those 65+ are heavy users of Live TVIt is widely recognized that those 65+ are heavy users of Live TV
Among those 55+ time with email declines substantially and IM disappearsAmong those 55+ time with email declines substantially and IM disappears
DVR playback is highest among those under 55DVR playback is highest among those under 55 Those 45-54 use TV like those older but computer like those youngerThose 45-54 use TV like those older but computer like those younger
Web use is highest for those under 45Web use is highest for those under 45
DVD use is highest among the 18-34DVD use is highest among the 18-34 Computer and environmental video small and mainly among those under 25Computer and environmental video small and mainly among those under 25
How Consumers Accumulated Their Screen TimeAverage Daily Minutes, Core Sample, N=752 observed days, Spring and Fall 2008
All participants, including non-users of various media, including concurrent media exposure
By age group
Total 1st screen: 353minTotal 2nd screen: 143min Total 3rd screen: 20min
Total 4th screen: 8min
Mobile is mostly about talking, but with 12 mins texting for those 18-24Mobile is mostly about talking, but with 12 mins texting for those 18-24
1st screen 2nd screen 3rd 4th
8hrs 31mins
8hrs 32mins
8hrs 18mins
8hrs 33mins
9hrs 34mins
8hrs 30mins
How Consumers Accumulated Their Screen TimeAverage Daily Minutes, Core Sample, N=752 observed days, Spring and Fall 2008
All participants, including non-users of various media, including concurrent media exposure
By age group
Live TV: 309minPlayback via DVR: 15minDVD or VCR: 23minConsole games: 7min
Web: 49min
Email: 37min
IM: 8min
Software: 46min
Computer video: 2min
Mobile talk: 17minMobile text: 2min
Mobile web: 1minMobile other (e.g. camera, etc): 0.5minMobile video: 0.1min
Environmental /Other video: 4minIn-Cinema movie: 2min
GPS navigation: 2min
1st scre
en
2st scre
en
3rd
scre
en
4th s
cre
enTotal 1st screen: 353min
Total 2nd screen: 143min Total 3rd screen: 20min
Total 4th screen: 8min
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Multitasking or CME (Concurrent Media Exposure)
CME with TV is 19% CME with Internet 44% CME by age cohort is the
same for 18-64! About 28% And 16% for 65+
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Key Take Aways
Observational methodology has shown self reported media use is unreliable. People underreport their use of TV and radio by about a
third People greatly over report their use of the Internet and
Phone.
Linear media use is the prevalent use of TV Everybody young and old uses about the
same amount of media each day.. Hence dayparts determine media behavior
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Expanded Daypart Determinism
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Not one paradigm shift but two
Programming for many screens
Programming for many digital channels
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The NPS Prime Time Schedule
Is built for turnover not flow… Nature into Masterpiece Antiques Road Show into American Whatever Nova into Frontline
Why drive away your audience? Cume In the digital environment why not schedule to
maximize GRPs by using your digital channels?
We already know it works! Overlap stations and duopoly stations are successful.
Almost all viewing is still linear and CME! 90%
PTPA May 2009272727
What Kind of Digital Channels Do You Want? TRAC Field Surveys
Idaho Utah DC
2nd Variety
41% 48% 41%
Drama Comedy
23% 24% 28%
High Def Only
20% 13% 20%
Many Std Def Chns
11% 15% 11%
PTPA May 2009282828
How it all works at a station
Who programs what?
Is there a theory about how to program the platforms?
Non-linear builds what audiences?
Linear still reigns
PTPA May 2009292929
Programming Across Platforms
Get out of the silos Platform agnostic Know the medium Know the audience Get the numbers
PTPA May 2009303030
fin
(Chad’s Part Followed)