1

SASCOF-11 2017

11th SOUTH ASIAN

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

Winter Season 2017

Maldives, 25-27 September 2017

MMS |Maldives Meteorological Services RIMES |Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early-warning System

2

DAY: 1 PRE-CONFERENCE SESSION FOR PREPARATION OF CONSENSUS FORECAST

Opening Remarks The pre-conference session of the 11th winter session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum

(SASCOF - 11) started with opening remarks by Mr. Abdulla Wahid, Director General, Maldives

Meteorological Services (MMS) followed by Dr. G. Srinivasan, Chief Scientist RIMES, and Dr. Pai,

India Meteorological Department (IMD), Regional Climate Center (RCC), Pune.

RCC, Pune and RIMES in their opening remarks thanked MMS and Government of Maldives for

hosting the 11th Session of SASCOF. The role of WMO in regular organization of the SASCOF

Sessions in the region was much appreciated and funding support provided by the

Government of Canada was acknowledged.

Speakers at the opening session explained the objectives and crucial importance of the

SASCOF process for the key sectors like agriculture, water, energy and health in South Asian

Region. Winter SASCOF’s was initiated in 2015 keeping in view of the importance of winter

seasonal climate key user sectors. They emphasized the need for closer coordination between

Meteorology departments and user sectors to proactively get involved in better utilization of

the climate information. While taking note of the progress made by the SASCOFs in terms of

building capacities in NMHSs of South Asian countries in terms of using tools like the Climate

Prediction Tool (CPT) and the seasonal prediction products from Global Producing Centers

(GPCs), the need for better understanding of climate drivers in national contexts was

highlighted.

The meteorological services in Asian region were mainly required capacity development in

terms of equipment and human resources. The WMO through regional agencies such as RIMES

could provide such kind of support in this region. The pre-COF training workshop for seasonal

prediction tools found to be very useful and need to be continued in future.

REVIEW OF GLOBAL/REGIONAL INDICATORS OF WINTER CLIMATE OVER SOUTH ASIA The Session commenced with a general discussion on the “Review of Winter Climate over south

Asian region”. Dr. Pai, IMD, India presented an overview of the winter SASCOF. Next, as a part

of preparations of the first draft of the consensus forecast outlook for 2017, the representative

from south Asian countries and experts from regional centers provided their inputs. The session

was chaired by Mr. Ali Shareef, Deputy Director General Meteorology, MMS.

Review of the winter climate over the region: Stressing the importance of understanding the winter climatology of the region and how it

becomes manifest in each country context, Dr. Pai, IMD introduced participants with

background on winter climate of the south Asian region. The presentation provided a brief on

important drivers of the winter climatology of south Asia, touching on ENSO, IOD, El-Nino vs La-

Nina and their influence on rainfall and cyclones events on the region. Dr. Pai also presented

verification of the winter season 2016 -17 including consensus forecast and its updates with the

realized climate over south Asia.

Main points:

Annual climate of South Asia is dominated by two monsoons – the South West summer

monsoon from June to September that accounts for 75-90% of the annual rainfall in most

countries and the North East Monsoon during the post monsoon months of October to

December that cover the southern tip of India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

During the southwest monsoon season, the most intense rainfall activity is seen over the

northeastern parts of the region over Bangladesh, India and adjoining Myanmar (Fig.1). The

influence of the Southwest monsoon diminishes towards both extreme north and south of the

3

South Asian region, as the winter season rainfall bearing currents gains predominance. During

the post monsoon and early winter months, substantial rainfall descends on the region

covering the southern tip of India and Sri Lanka as the prevailing northeasterly trade winds over

the region gain strength. This season (October to December) has come to be known as the

“North East” monsoon season. In this northeasterly regime of prevailing winds, disturbances

called “easterly waves” occur that move from east over southern Bay of Bengal and causing

significant rainfall.

Later, during the months from January to March north and northwestern part of the sub-

continent receive rainfall/snowfalls associated with low-pressure systems that travel from the

western high latitudes to the east. As these systems almost always approach from the west and

move towards the east, they are referred to as “western disturbances”.

Rainfall regime of South Asia clearly reflects these features as shown in fig 1 below.

Figure 1. Plots showing percentage contribution of different seasons (winter (JF), Pre-monsoon (MAM), SW

Monsoon (JJAS) & Northeast Monsoon (OND) to the annual rainfall over south Asia using APHRODITE (0.25

x 0.25) data set. October to December (OND) month’s contribution is significant only for the eastern parts

of the southern peninsular India, Sri Lanka

Figure 2 shows the annual cycle of mean monthly rainfall of countries in South Asia. For most

south Asian countries, largest proportion of the annual rainfall is received during the 4 months

of the summer monsoon season or southwest monsoon season (June to September). Many

parts of South Asia also receive significant amounts of rainfall during the winter Monsoon

Season (October to February). However, Afghanistan experience mainly dry climate during

the summer monsoon season. It receives better rainfall during the winter season (December

to February). For Sri Lanka, though the country receives good amount of rainfall during the

summer monsoon season (May to September for Sri Lanka), the peak rainfall are received on

either side of the summer monsoon season; First inter-monsoon season (March –April) and

second inter monsoon season (October – November).

4

Figure 2. Annual cycle of monthly mean rainfall over eight south Asian countries. The mean was

computed using data for the period 1951-2000. (Data Source: For countries except Maldives:

APHRODITE’s Water Resources Home page: http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/english/index.html. For

Maldives mean rainfall was prepared based on 1980-2007 data of 5 land stations).

The temperature climate of the region is dominated by a distinct north-south gradient with

warmer temperatures to the south. This gradient gets progressively stronger as the season

advances, getting firmly established during the peak winter months.

The two most important ocean-atmosphere phenomena identified as having large influence

on the interannual variability of climate over south Asia particularly during the monsoons are

the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Southern Oscillation or

“SO” is a "see-saw" in the surface air pressure between eastern and western tropical Pacific. El

Niño and La Niña are oceanic manifestation of opposite phases of SO, which is an atmospheric

phenomena. El Niño is characterized by the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in

the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This is called the warm phase of the SO. The

cold phase of the SO, called "La Niña" is characterized by high pressure in the eastern

equatorial Pacific, low in the west, and by colder than normal seas surface temperatures in

the central and eastern Pacific. ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is an acronym designed to

stress the fact that the El Niño and SO are components of the same global Ocean-Atmosphere

coupled phenomena.

In general, El Niño (La Niña) years are associated with the below (above) normal rainfall over

most of south Asia except some east and northeast parts of the region. On the other hand the

association between ENSO and NE Monsoon rainfall is relatively weak. However, there is

noticeable difference in the large-scale season rainfall patterns during OND between El Niño

& La Niña years (Figure 3). As seen during the El Niño (La Niña) years, the rainfall is above

5

(below) normal over south, northwest and eastern parts of the region and below (above)

normal over northeast India an neighboring areas.

Figure 3. Composites of rainfall anomalies during Oct, Nov and Dec (OND) months in El Nino (left) and

La Nina (right) years.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that occurs in the

tropical parts of the Indian Ocean. IOD has two phases; positive and negative. A positive IOD

period is characterised by cooler than normal water in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and

warmer than normal water in the tropical western Indian Ocean.

In general during the SW Monsoon Season, a positive (negative) IOD SST pattern is associated

with above (below) normal rainfall over central parts (monsoon trough zone) of south Asia. In

spite of a noticeable association between IOD and monsoon rainfall over south Asia, a

predictive relationship between IOD and Indian summer monsoon rainfall could not be

identified mainly because the IOD pattern generally develops during the middle of the

monsoon season. However, the IOD has been found to play an important role as a modulator

of the Indian monsoon rainfall and influences the association between the ISMR and ENSO. It

is observed that during the period when the ENSO-ISMR correlation is low (high), the IOD-ISMR

correlation is high (low).

Figure 4. Composites of rainfall anomalies during Oct, Nov and Dec (OND) months in positive (negative)

IOD years.

In case of NE Monsoon also, some noticeable difference has been observed in the composite

season rainfall pattern particularly over southern part of the region between positive and

negative IOD years (Figure 4). In general, during positive (negative) IOD years, the season

rainfall over southern part of the region including south Peninsular India and Sri Lanka receive

above (below) normal rainfall.

6

While the ENSO influence on the monsoon is very important, recent experience indicates that

it is not enough to rely entirely on El Niño or La Niña for prediction of the monsoon. Other factors

that are known to impact performance of the SW monsoon are winter and spring snow cover

over Eurasia, northern hemisphere surface air temperature during spring season, sea surface

temperature patterns over Atlantic Ocean, mid latitude flow pattern north of India etc. It is

recognized that the seasonal predictability of the region during the monsoons is limited to

some extent by the strong day to day atmospheric variability. The day to day atmospheric

variability over the northern (southern) part the region is caused by the passage of

disturbances in the mid latitude westerlies (tropical easterlies). The seasonal predictability over

southern part of the region is also limited by the eastward moving Madden Julian Oscillation

(MJO), which represents the major global scale intraseasonal variability pattern. Particularly in

case of NE Monsoon seasonal prediction, the contribution of intraseasonal variability to the

performance of the monsoon is as important as the interannual variability. Therefore, the

seasonal predictability of the NE Monsoon is relatively less compared to that of SW Monsoon.

There do exist some relationship between ENSO and NE Monsoon rainfall over south Peninsula.

Table 1 below illustrates this, while also indicating that no clear exclusions can be made

(except for a low probability for La Nina conditions leading to above normal rainfall).

Table 1. Relationship between ENSO and NE Monsoons over southern peninsular India.

Rainfall Category El Nino La Nina

Below Normal ( <89) 8(28%) 9(38%)

Normal (>= 89 to <=111) 10(34%) 11(46%)

Above normal (>111) 11(38%) 4(17%)

Synoptic systems, particularly the intense ones like cyclones and Depressions play a major role

in determining NE monsoon rainfall amount and distribution in both time and space. Tropical

cyclones may bring a significant proportion of the seasonal rainfall total in a short spell of few

days causing flooding and other damages. One important factor that is controlled by the

large-scale drivers such as the El Nino condition is the track of Tropical cyclones and

Depressions. El Nino or La Nina conditions result in large scale circulation anomalies in the upper

atmosphere that influence the path taken by tropical cyclones that originate in the Bay of

Bengal during this season. While the El Nino conditions cause cyclones to move in a more

westerly track enhancing NE monsoon rainfall in southern peninsular India, Sri Lanka and

Maldives; the La Nino conditions seems to cause a more northward movement resulting in re-

curvature of the cyclones towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. Tropical cyclone tracks during

El Nino/La Nina years indicate this pattern as seen in figure 5. below.

7

Figure 5.Composite of Tropical Cyclone tracks a) during El Nino years 1970 onwards: 8 years – Nov-1972,

77, 82, 87, 91, 94, 97 & 2002 showing preference westward movement; b) during La Nina (1970 onwards;

6 years - Nov - 1970, 73, 75, 88, 98 & 2000 showing north

Geetha and Raj (2014) have analyzed the components of North East Monsoon rainfall

variability and indicate passage of cyclones and depressions to explain about 11-20% of OND

rainfall variability over southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka1.

Verification of the Winter Season 2016-2017

Dr. Pai also presented the realized climate over the region during the 2016-17 winter. Figure 6

below indicates subjectively on how the below normal rainfall indication over some areas of

southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives was somewhat realized over the region. Last

year’s outlook had also indicated “Below normal rainfall … over some areas of north and

eastern parts of the region and Above normal rainfall over western and northwestern parts of

Pakistan and some northeastern parts of the region.

There is strong need to move towards more objective assessment of rainfall realized during

each season as compared to the consensus climate outlooks being prepared in SASCOFs. This

was one of the main issues that was also discussed at the recently held Global review of RCOFs

organized by WMO in Guayaquil, Ecuador during 5-7 September 2017.

1 Geetha and Raj (2014) Spatial patterns of northeast monsoon rainfall over sub-regions of southern peninsular

India and Sri Lanka as revealed through empirical orthogonal function analysis, Mausam 65, 2 (April 2014), 185-

204.

a) b)

8

Fig.6 Forecast and verification for a) OND 2016 and b) DJF 2016-17

Country presentations: review of winter monsoon 2016

Country presentations were made by Afghanistan, India, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Myanmar presentation was done by Maldives.

Mr. Hussain Waheed, MMS, Maldives described the general climate of Maldives that is mostly

dominated two distinct seasons i.e. dry season (Dec to April) and wet season (mid-May to

Nov). MMS prepared seasonal forecast by using Climate Prediction Tool (CPT) and organized

Monsoon Forum at national level with support from RIMES. The consensus forecast for 2016

Northeast monsoon rainfall suggested that during the 2016 northeast monsoon season, below

normal rainfall was expected over the Maldives. After validation of the 2016 NE monsoon, MMS

concluded that the overall forecast was comparatively good for all 3 regions i.e. north, central

atolls and south.

Mr. Shiva Nepal, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal gave a review of the

previous SASCOF outlook over Nepal. He started his presentation with brief climatology of the

Nepal including normal precipitation, temperature and their spatial distribution over Nepal.

The various tools and model data used by DHM included CPT (Climate Prediction Tool),

ECMWF, GPC, Seoul and NOAA, CPC. The consensus outlook for NE monsoon rainfall (OND

9

2016) predicted near normal rainfall for Nepal. The post monsoon (ON-2016) observations have

shown overall rainfall was normal for Nepal. The winter season (DJF) outlook predicted below

normal (central and eastern areas) and normal rainfall (remaining areas) but the winter rainfall

in 2016-17 was observed drier than normal.

Mr. Muradi, Afghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD) introduced participants with the

general climate of the Afghanistan and effect of the winter monsoon over Afghanistan. Most

of the part of Afghanistan experience heavy snow and precipitations events during winter

monsoon leads to disaster situation causing severe causality for human and infrastructure. The

Afghan Meteorological Departments was not capacitated enough to produce the seasonal

prediction and mostly depends on IMD forecast over Afghanistan region.

Mr. Wimalasuriya, Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka presented the general climate of Sri

Lanka. The country experiences four seasons in three climatic zones i.e. dry, intermediate and

wet zones. He emphasized on importance of SE monsoon as it contributes to 26 % of the

average annual rainfall in Sri Lanka. The Department of Meteorology uses CPT tool for seasonal

prediction. He pointed out that last 3 years of NE monsoon rainfall was difficult to predict for

Irrigation sector using CPT tool and there was need for more research and finding new

dimensions for seasonal predictions.

Inputs from Global Producing Centers (GPCs)

Tokyo Climate Centre, JMA, Japan: (Mr. Takuya Komori)

Mr. Komori from Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Japan provided inputs from the Japan

Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) for seasonal climate predictions over south Asian region. The

presentation introduced participants with JMA seasonal ensemble prediction systems (JMA

EPS) and current oceanic conditions, including probabilistic forecast. Hindcast results based

on the period 1981-2010 from JMA EPS showed the relatively low prediction skill over South Asia

based on September initial conditions for the OND season. This can however be due to the

insignificant amounts of rainfall over most of the region except for southern peninsular India

and adjoining countries of Sri Lanka and Maldives.

TCC inputs also presented the status of different indices including the SOI and SST for the IOBW,

Nino.WEST and Niño. 3 regions. The equatorial Pacific SSTs were above normal in the western

part and below normal in the eastern part. So, NINO.WEST was predicted to be near or above

normal while NINO.3 was predicted to be near or below normal. In summary, TCC assessment

indicated that La Nina like SST conditions are likely to prevail through the winter season and

the Indian Ocean SSTs remaining near normal. Temperatures were expected to be above

normal and rainfall was expected to be near or above normal from Oct to Dec 2017.

LC-LRFMME, Korea Meteorological Administration, Korea (Ms. Gayoung Kim)

Ms. Kim from the WMO Lead Center for Long-range forecast Multi Model Ensemble (LC-

LRFMME) presented the role of the center and products that are being generated based on

data sets contributed by other GPCs. Her presentation focused on current oceanic conditions

over tropical pacific and Indian Ocean, with details on the multi model ensemble results for

OND 2017. Seasonal and long-range predictions can be significantly improved, using multi-

model ensemble approach as facilitated at LC-LRFMME by combining GPC forecast datasets.

Differing standards adopted by Long range forecast model outputs and limited sharing of the

output with regions were barriers due to which MMEs were not being used fully. The LC-LRFMME

is working towards removing such hurdles by using all the GPC products. It will be also useful

for GPCs to link with users through forums such as the RCOFs to get user feedback and plan for

better products.

Warm SST anomalies evident until July, 2017, dissipated across central and eastern Pacific.

Summarizing the current ocean temperature conditions, the presentation brought out the

10

expansion of negative subsurface temperature anomalies during the last two months and

underlined the spread of cold SST anomalies over eastern Pacific during early September. Over

the Indian Ocean SST anomalies were positive in the western and negative in the eastern

Indian Ocean during June – August 2017 resulting in positive IOD. Predicted situation regarding

ENSO was Neutral to weak La Nina (<-0.5 C) expected during winter 2017 and with decreasing

tendency of the western – eastern SST gradient, a weak positive IOD was predicted.

Multi Model Ensemble forecasts results based on September 2017 initial conditions using data

of 11 GPC prediction models for the OND season were prepared as illustrated above. The GPC

included were:

Based on the MME most of South Asia showed probabilities towards above-normal

temperatures and near-normal precipitation outlook for the OND 2017.

DAY 2: OPENING SESSION OF THE SASCOF-11

Welcome Address: (Mr. Ibrahim Nizam, Senior Policy Executive, MEE)

Mr. Ibrahim Nizam, Senior Policy Executive, Ministry of Energy and Environment gave welcome

address and formally opened the 11th session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-

11). He explained that all the user sectors in Maldives were directly and indirectly using weather

and climate services provided by MMS. Complexity in understanding and analyzing the

climate information deter the users from realizing its potential benefits in decision-making and

overall welfare of the society. He believed that forums such as the SASCOFs enable sectors to

evolve and develop sustainably, while also making systems more amenable to adaptation

required to face climate change.

Remarks: (Mr. Ali Shareef, Focal-point for RIMES Secretariat)

Mr. Ali Shareef, Focal point for RIMES Secretariat and Deputy Director General Meteorology,

MMS in his remark considered the SASCOF event as a important landmark for the region in

11

building capacities to render the climate information and services. He highlighted the RIMES

role in building capacities in climate sensitive users sector to realize the potential value of

climate/weather information in the specific context of emergency response, socio-economic

impact, culture and governance amongst RIMES member countries. He hoped that, the

continual evolution of science, better-quality products generated by GPCs and RCCs and

tools for applications in sectors will result in further improvements and help countries to build

resilience to climate variability and change.

Inaugural Address: Hon. (Mr. Abdullah Majeed State Minister and Permanent Representative of

Maldives with WMO)

Mr. Majeed, Honorable state minister and permanent representative of Maldives with WMO,

welcomed all the international participants from the neighboring countries of South Asia and

thanked WMO and RIMES for giving Maldives opportunity to host the winter session of SASCOF

and the Government of Canada for their funding support. He mentioned that seasonal

predictions for the forthcoming winter season over south Asia, including the North East (NE)

monsoon season - the topic of this Forum, is of great value and importance to them. He hoped

that the participatory process like a “climate outlook forum’ will therefore provide a ideal

platform to enhance the uptake of the available climate information on different time scale.

He concluded his remark, expecting the outcomes from such sessions will enhance the use of

climate services in risk management and sustainable progress in future.

2017 WINTER MONSOON SEASON (OCT, NOV, DEC): COUNTRY PERSPECTIVES The second session of the SASCOF-11 forum aimed at understanding the climate predictions

available for the region, and national perspectives over the winter monsoon Oct – Dec (OND)

months. The session was chaired by Mr. Abdullah Majeed, State Minister, Maldives.

The session started with remote presentation from Prof. Yuri, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)

Australia, on current status and global and regional drivers of winter climate over south Asia.

He indicated neutral El Nino conditions and neutral IOD conditions. Next, Dr. Pai, IMD, India

presented SASCOF process and highlights of 2016-17 winter season over the region and

followed by country representative and experts from RCC, presented their outcomes.

Current Status of the global and regional drivers of winter climate over South Asia:

Prof. Yuri, BoM, Australia (presented remotely)

Prof. Yuri from Australian Bureau of Meteorology remotely presented on current status of the

pacific and Indian oceans. He began with El Nino and La Nina conditions and their effect on

various climate events. He mentioned about current sea surface temperature anomalies, sub

surface temperature, SOI, 5 days SST and wind anomalies and climate module summary for

NINO 3.4 and IOD. He have also shown WMO-GPC Melbourne climate outlook for SSTs,

accumulated rainfall for the period of September to November 2017. He summarized

presentation with conclusion that, chances of late session La Nina increase and the ENSO and

IOD is currently neutral.

SASCOF process & Highlights of 2016-17 winter season over the region vis-à-vis SASCOF-9 climate outlook: (Dr. Pai)

Dr. Pai in his presentation gave background of the regional climate outlook forum and how it

evolved since 1990s. Next, he briefly explained topics such as climatic features of south Asia,

rainfall features of south Asia, agriculture and its dependency on monsoon. He also highlighted

the generations of the consensus forecast and verification for south Asia region for last 8 years.

High quality data with high resolutions, number of forecast inputs, development of standard

tools for the verification of consensus forecast, focal points for regular update on consensus

forecast in each NMHS, capacity building training workshops and increased interaction with

user community for specialized capacity building workshop were some of the important points

noted by Dr. Pai, for enhancing further acceptability and usability of the SASCOF products. In

12

the ensuing discussions, the need to develop a good observational database for temperature

and rainfall based on data contributions from the countries in the region was expressed.

Country Presentations:

Afghanistan: Mr. Mohammad Nasim Muradi Mr. Muradi representing Afghan Meteorological department presented winter monsoon

anomalies for the year 2016-17. The monthly anomalies maps for Afghanistan was prepared

based on precipitation estimates from the CAMS_OPI dataset with period used for computing

the climatology from 1979 to 2000. He also showed the annual precipitation map for 3-month

season from monthly CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) dataset for the base period

of 1981-2000. The AMD is also using IRI Multi-model probability forecast for precipitation for OND

2017. In conclusion, consensus forecast of AMD for rainfall over Afghanistan was expected to

be normal while temperature was expected to be normal to above normal.

India: Dr. Pai

Dr. Pai started his presentation by verification of forecast outlook for OND 2016 and DJF 2016-

17 and it was observed that at both instances the forecasted and observed outlook matched

significantly. He assessed the ENSO and IOD’s current status and forecast using CPC and

MMCFS forecast and SSTs using IRI/CPC Pacific Nino 3.4 SST model outlook. He summarized the

presentation with indication of, IOD and ENSO neutral conditions likely to be prevailing and

high probability of cool ENSO neutral conditions during 2017 NE monsoon season which then

turning to weak La Nina conditions in early part of next year.

Maldives: Mr. Hussain Waheed and Ms. Azeema Ahmed

The forecast prediction of MMS for OND 2017 based on global models and use of CPT tool. The

APEC climate center predicted below normal rainfall in a eastern equatorial IO while

enhanced probability for above normal in South Arabian sea and below normal in central iO

and near normal to Indian ocean to great Sunderland. JMA forecasted high probability of

above normal in Northwestern part of IO. Most of the global centers agreed on prediction of

above normal temperature on most part of the country. In conclusion, above normal

precipitation forecasted in northern part of Maldives and normal for central and southern atolls

Myanmar: Mr. Hussain Waheed

The Myanmar representative from Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar

(DMH) could not attend the forum but send his presentation for SASCOF forum. Mr. Hussain

from MMS presented the forecast for winter season on behalf of DMH, Myanmar. The seasonal

forecast for DMH, Myanmar was based on model forecast from ECMWF and CPC/NOAA for

the period of OND 2017. The ECMWF predicted below normal rainfall in southern and eastern

Myanmar and normal for the remaining areas while NOAA predicted slightly above normal

rainfall in the whole country. Normal to above normal temperature was predicted by both of

models.

Nepal: Mr. Shiva Prasad Nepal

The winter forecast outlook for Nepal was presented by Mr. Shiva from Department of

Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. The various prediction tools used by DHM, Nepal for

forecast prediction involved CPT, ECMWF, IRI/CPC, NOAA/CPC. In total, normal to slight above

normal rainfall was predicted for post monsoon season (ON) 2017 for Nepal while and Winter

forecast (DJF) forecast 2017/18 for Nepal, Likely to be below Normal or near normal.

Sri Lanka: Mr. A. G. M.M. Wimalasuriya

For Sri Lanka, Mr. Wimalasuriya from department of meteorology presented the winter outlook.

The precipitation and temperature both were predicted normal for winter season over Sri Lanka.

13

Summary of Forecasts from Country Representatives:

Table 2. Summarized rainfall and temperature forecast for South Asian countries

Sr.

No.

Country Rainfall Forecast Temperature Forecast

1. Afghanistan Normal Normal to Above

Normal

2. Bhutan Normal Normal to Above

Normal

3. India (South Peninsula) Normal Normal to Above

Normal

4. Maldives Above Normal over north

Normal over central and south

Normal to slightly

above normal

5. Myanmar Normal to slightly above normal OND: Above Normal

6. Nepal Normal Normal to Above

Normal

7. Sri Lanka Normal Normal

Winter Seasonal Climate monitoring products & outlook for the 2017 winter monsoon season

Tokyo Climate Centre, JMA, Japan: Mr. Takuya Komori Mr. Komori presented JMA Seasonal Prediction for South Asian Climate for OND 2017. He

explained the outline of the JMA seasonal and numerical ensemble prediction system for the

participants. He also presented probabilistic skill of JMA, monthly mean and SST for ONDJF

2017-18, ensemble mean of precipitation and temperature for south Asia (OND 2017). In

conclusion, area-averaged precipitation of South Asia is expected to be near or above normal

from October to December 2017 while above normal temperature in most part of the South

Asia

LC-LRFMME, KMA, Korea: Ms. Gayoung Kim

The winter 2017-18 predictions from LC-LRMME were presented by Ms. Kim based on inputs

from 11 GPC’s institutes. The variable involved included 2 m temperature, precipitation, mean

sea level pressure, 850 hPa temperature, 500 hPa geo-potential heights and Sea surface

temperature (as available). She concluded the results with neutral to negative ENSO, neutral

to weak positive condition of IOD. The overall atmospheric temperature will be warm and to

slightly wet during OND 2017. The precipitation was predicted to be near normal over most

parts of South Asian region, but expected to be above normal over some parts of Maldives

14

Summary of forecast inputs from regional centers: Table 3. Forecast inputs for regional centers

Regional

Centre

Precipitation 2m Temperature SST

TCC ▪ Area-averaged

precipitation of

South Asia is

expected to be

near or above

normal from

October to

December 2017

▪ Above normal in

most part of South

Asia.

▪ It is likely that La Niña like

SST conditions will persist

through boreal winter.

▪ It is likely that the Indian

Ocean SST (IOBW) will be

near normal until boreal

winter

WMO_LC

LRFMME

▪ OND 2017: Near-

normal condition

over most parts of

South Asian region,

but below-than-

normal condition

over Pakistan,

above-normal

conditions over

some parts of

Maldives

▪ OND 2017: warmer-

than-normal

conditions over

Most parts of India,

Sri Lanka, Maldives,

Bangladesh, some

parts of Myanmar

▪ ENSO prediction Neutral to

negative ENSO (<-0.5 ˚C) is

expected during OND 2017

▪ IOD - Neutral to weak

positive condition through

OND 2017

Australian

Bureau of

Meteorolo

gy

▪ ▪ The tropical Pacific

Ocean is likely to

continue its current

cooling trend in the

coming months,

with three models

reaching La Niña

thresholds during

the austral spring

and with a fourth

reaching the

threshold in early

summer 2017-18.

▪ Models suggest the

cool Pacific

temperatures may

warm by late

summer, which is

typical of the ENSO

cycle.

▪ Chances of a late season

La Niña increase

▪ The El Niño-Southern

Oscillation (ENSO) is

currently neutral

▪ The Indian Ocean Dipole

(IOD) is currently neutral.

Three out of six

models indicate that a

positive IOD event may

develop in spring 2017, but

decay by the end of

summer.

Q & A and Discussion & other global / regional inputs

The forum deliberated in detail the various climate indicators at global, regional and national

levels. Given the likelihood that both the major climate drivers – El Nino and IOD being in near

neutral conditions the seasonal outlook also presented a near normal rainfall outlook for the

OND season. Dr. Pai, IMD RCC, Pune summarized all the inputs available from Countries,

GPCs/RCCs, LC-LRFMME, BoM, Australia and other sources. These inputs were used to prepare

15

the draft consensus climate outlook for the OND months winter 2017 for South Asia. He also

mentioned that the second stage of the consensus climate outlook update will be prepared

in consultation with all countries and participants November for the DJF (2017-18) winter

season.

One of the features highlighted was the tendency of the cyclonic storms and depressions that

form in the Bay of Bengal during October-November months to re-curve their tracks

preferentially towards the north during La Nina conditions as compared to their more normal

eastward tracks. Although it was not a La Nina condition yet during the current season, in view

of the La Nina like situation, above-normal probability was assigned to east-coast of Northern

Bay of Bengal areas. The need for more objectively based diagnostic results based on research

was discussed.

Open discussion on the available indicators and Consensus Outlook

In the following discussions after the presentation of the draft consensus climate outlook

clarification from user sectors were addressed. Specific details to improve and align the

consensus outlook to country perspectives were also undertaken and revised. The discussions

ended with a agreement on the draft consensus and time allowed for further revisions in

consultation with respective NMHSs authorities for formal approvals before the press release of

the consensus forecast.

Day 3: Using Climate Outlook Information for sectoral planning

Opening Remarks: (Chairs: Dr. Pai, IMD, RCC, Pune and Dr. G. Srinivasan, RIMES)

Recap of consensus forecast for the 2017 winter monsoon season by the Chairs of the Session

followed by explanatory discussions aimed to clarify various aspects of the outlook for user

sector participants. The detail consensus seasonal outlook is available at Annex.1

Maldives NDMC:

Mr. Umar Fikry, from National Disaster Management Planning Commission, Maldives presented

the recently drafted national disaster management plan for Maldives with the participation of

various national stakeholders and with support from the Economic and Social Commission for

Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). The NDMC plan included various sections such as

Highlights: SASCOF -11 Consensus Seasonal Outlook

Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 OND Season

over some parts of SE Peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and some

northeastern areas of the region.

Above normal is most likely over southeastern part of the region

and along the coastal areas adjacent to the North Bay of Bengal.

Rest all areas will receive normal rainfall

Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the

2017 OND Season over most parts of the region.

16

1. Risk Profile 5. Early Warning Systems 9. Monitoring and Evaluation

2. Institutional Arrangements 6. Disaster Recovery and

Reconstruction

10. National Disaster

Management

Programme

3. Disaster Risk 7. Capacity Development

4. Disaster Recovery 8. Risk Sensitivity Budgeting

and Financing

NDMC have designated various warning stages i.e. stage1 (white), 2 (yellow),3 (red),4(green)

as per the disaster sensitivity, for the generation of the alert through early warning systems. The

weather and climate information from MMS will play crucial role in overall planning of the

national disaster management implementation. It was noted that NDMC has started to be one

of the first recipients of weather alerts from MMS. At the end of the presentation, he had invited

the participants to provide their inputs on the draft Plan. The question were as follows

After the presentations, there was suggestion for considering the low impact high frequency

events to be considered in the NDMC planning and how it will be taken care of with the use

of the climate information available from Met services.

UN ESCAP:

Ms. Kareff Rafisura, a representative from ESCAP discussed institutionalizing the climate

information applications for disaster risk management. She had given an example for zero

casualty policy adopted in Albay province of Philippines that have shown record of zero

casualty in 16 years with exception in year 2006. This kind of risk management needed seamless

integration of climate information at all timescales at all policy and planning level. She also

gave an example of forecast based financing (figure 7) successfully activated in Guatemala,

Uganda and Zimbabwe and piloting in Bangladesh, Nepal and Philippines. It was observed

that such kind of anticipatory efforts lower the cost of humanitarian response by as much as

50 %.

Maldives NDMC Plan

Q1. Which sections need to be strengthened, and what should be added to them?

Q2. Which sections seem redundant, and what should be removed in these?

Q3. Are there any sections that seem incorrect or inappropriate in any way?

Q4. Is there any key area that has been totally missed out?

Q5. Are there any key stakeholders that have been missed out or inadequately

covered?

17

Figure 07. Forecast based financing has been pilot tested in many countries and climate information,

particularly seasonal forecast could be used effectively when their confidence levels are high (source:

Red Cross)

World Bank, Sri Lanka:

The representative from World Bank Ms. Priyanka Dissanayake and Mr. Suranga Kahandawa

presented on use of climate outlook information for sectoral planning. The presentation

emphasized on use of climate outlook and its contribution to preparedness and planning in

advance.

The need for forecast products to be attuned to end users needs and decision-making

behavior was emphasized. Citing the example of the recent drought in Sri Lanka, when

reservoir were down to 20% of their storage impacting rice harvests to less than half their normal

production, they indicated that climate outlook could be useful for drought planning in

agriculture sector and reservoir operation in water sector. Utility of climate information was

highlighted in –

Agriculture sector:

Crop diversification or crop planning

Planning for food imports

Advance planning of planting materials/ seeds

Selection of crop varieties, alternate cropping strategies

Disaster risk preparedness & response:

Shelter preparedness

Strategic placement of relief stocks

Strengthen preparedness at different levels including communities

Summon committee meetings to consider other planning options and priorities

Financial Preparedness:

Execution of Disaster Reserve Funds

o Contingent contracting

o Preparedness for Assessments – Rapid + Detailed

o Prepare required documentation

Prepare to access Contingent Financing Mechanisms such as CATDDOs

Prepare for emergency funds such as Contingent Emergency Response Components

(CERCs) eg: Update user manuals etc.

Explore fiscal space in the current budget

WB, Sri Lanka also presented details of financial instruments being evolved for risk sensitive

budgeting and financing.

18

User’s Sector climate information requirements:

Maldives user sector representative from Agriculture, Fishery and Defense participated sharing

their views and experience. The summary of the discussion is as follows.

Agriculture:

In Maldives, all the field crops are grown under rainfed conditions during south-west monsoon.

Hence the distribution of rainfall and precipitation forecast plays very important role in

Agriculture Sector. For horticulture crops, the winds are also crucial. Most of the horticultural

farmers lost their field crops due to strong winds that damaged standing crops. Soil salinity is

also major problem due entry of salty water in the fields during high tide situations.

The existing training schools for farmers in Maldives focused on aspects such as GAP, use of

fertilizer and pesticides, poultry keeping etc. There is strong need of establishment of climate

smart Farmer Field School. The FFS could assist farmers in relating climate information/ weather

forecasting with management decision the existing cropping system. In addition, it will

enhance the practical application of weather forecasting provided by Maldives

Meteorological Services.

Fisheries:

The fisheries sector is very important for the Maldives because of its highest contribution in

export. Currently fishery sector could not apply much of the climate information in the sector.

The warning of the bad weather is conveyed most of the time to deter fishery people from

visiting sea for fishing. The timely warning can play very important role in the safety of the fishery

community.

The most important issues for the fisheries sectors were the catchability and sustainability of the

stored fish stock. There is need for the system to know the location of fish concentration

(potential fishing zone) that could save lot of their time and fuel during fish catching. The fishery

sector representatives also sought information of sea –surface temperatures as the fish habitat

and their migration is highly sensitive to the change in the temperature. In this context degree

of heating weeks was mentioned as an example of an index that is useful for the fisheries

sector. The need for formulating Guidelines for responding to climate and weather information

was expressed.

Ministry of Fisheries and Agriculture with International Pole and Line Foundation (INPLF) recently

started online web portal (Fisheries Information System) to monitor catch logbooks, fish

purchase information and fishery vessel license information etc. The climate related

information and potential fish zoning could be integrated into this web portal and information

can then be provided through SMS to cell phones and LED screens at major ports/fishing

terminals.

National Defense Management Council (NDMC):

The climate information is very much important for various activities conducted by NDMC. The

in-advanced weather information would help NDMC to give warning and act on time to save

the lives. As most of the areas of the Maldives are prone to flood, NDMC would like to

collaborate with MMS for the generation of the Flood and Tide warnings. Discussions also

pointed out the criteria for alerts, for example the “White Alert Criteria” where there is no

imminent threat when it is for just one or few instances, but if there are several occurrences of

white alert in quick succession then it could be dangerous warranting upgrade in the level of

alert signal. There was a request to MMS to review the alert criteria. In the discussions it was

pointed out that there is a need for creating Dynamic risk profiles that will change with

frequency of events and interaction of hazards at a location.

19

NDMC mainly focusing on impact based early warning and risk based financing. Both of would

require active participation from Met Services for their executions. NDMC is looking forward in

improving the collaboration with Met Services and highlighted the importance of this kind of

forum where users and provider sectors can come together to share their views.

Red Crescent:

The need for communicating the meaning of above- or below-normal is very important to first

responders like Red-crescent. Forecasts and predictions need to translate into context specific

terms so that they can be used easily for preparation/planning. Examples from other countries

were also shared.

Press Briefing of Consensus climate Outlook:

The 11th Session of the South Asian Climate outlook forum had experienced good media

coverage from the inauguration to the end of forum. The media sector involves local media

such as PSM (Public Service Media), Channel 13, Sun TV, Rajie TV, Sung TV and VTV. At the end

of the user’s forum the consensus outlook was read out for the media in English and local

language. The printed copies of consensus outlooks were also distributed among media

houses for the publication purpose.The question-answer session regarding consensus outlook

was also held between climate experts and press representative.

Wrap UP and Recommendations:

The following recommendations were summarized based on discussions at the forums:

Member Countries:

There was need of capacity building workshop for the members’ country participants in

the areas of the generation and analysis of the climate outlook. Most of the country

participants highlighted the importance of 1-2-day training workshop before the start of

the forum.

It was proposed to have a one-day technical session to understand regional climate

features like the re-curvature tracks of tropical systems through model diagnostics with a

view to improve SASCOF seasonal forecast products. TCC and RIMES supported this view

and proposed that this could be consider prior to the next SASCOF session.

20

The Met Services in the member countries also need to consider about participation of Met

staff in climate forums. The dedicating group of Met staff should be encouraged to attend

consecutive SASCOF forums; it will help in building their capacity in generation of outlook

in long run.

The training workshop for met staff will need find financing, which was lacking in last few

forums. The regional organizations such as RIMES could play important role to save some

cost and organize such kind of training.

Users Sector:

The user sector would need great help in understanding and translation of the climate

information. The user sector workshop for introduction of various climatic terms would help

them in great way to understand the weather forecasting generated by met services.

The defense sector users recommended on considering the Unit of the weather forecast

generated by the met services. The Unit and terms used in the weather forecasting should

be translated into the local terms to understand easily and use it in better way.

The Agriculture and Fishery sector also need sectoral-based training to increase the use of

climate information in their sector.

21

ANNEX 1: CONSENSUS STATEMENT

Eleventh Session of

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-11) Malé, Maldives, 25-27 September 2017

Consensus Statement on the Forecast for the 2017

October to December (OND) Season Rainfall and Temperatures

over South Asia

Summary

Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 OND Season over some

parts of SE Peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and some northeastern areas of the

region. Above normal is most likely over southeastern part of the region and along

the coastal areas adjacent to the North Bay of Bengal. Over remaining areas of the

region including northwest and central areas that generally receive very little rain

during the season, rainfall is most likely to be Normal.

Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the 2017 OND

Season over most parts of the region.

Currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and

these conditions are likely to continue and turn to border line/ weak La Nina

conditions in the early next year. It is also recognized that during the 2017 OND

season, in the absence of SST forcings from Pacific and Indian oceans, strong intra

seasonal features will have larger influence on the climate variability over the

region leading to increased uncertainty in predictions of seasonally averaged

rainfall and temperature patterns.

The consensus forecast outlook presented here has been developed

through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and

forecasts from different climate models from around the world.

For more information and further updates on the northeast monsoon outlook

on national scale, the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological

Services (NMHSs) may be consulted.

A separate consensus statement for the winter season (December 2017 to

February 2018) will be issued in November 2017.

22

Introduction:

During the season (October to December), many parts of South Asia receive

significant amounts of rainfall which coincides with one of the major agricultural seasons of

the region. The reestablishment of prevailing north easterly trade-wind regime over South

Asia associated with the southward movement of the ITCZ ushers-in the so-called

“Northeast Monsoon” (NEM), bringing rainfall to the southern parts of India, Sri Lanka and

Maldives. In Sri Lanka, the October to November period is known as second Inter Monsoon

(SIM) season. It has been recognized that there is moderate seasonal predictability for the

Northeast Monsoon circulation over the region as the seasonal variability is strongly

influenced by the slowly varying boundary forcings like sea surface temperatures. However,

the predictability is also limited to some extent due to the high frequency atmospheric

variability caused by the passage of the synoptic scale systems such as easterly waves,

lows, depressions, cyclones etc. The seasonal predictability of the northeast monsoon over

the region is also influenced by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which represents the

major global scale intraseasonal variability pattern.

The current climate outlook was prepared during the eleventh session of the South

Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-11), which is also the third session devoted

exclusively for the Northeast monsoon season. SASCOF-11 was held at Malé, Maldives,

25-27 September 2017. The forum meeting was attended by several experts from various

South Asian countries such as Afghanistan, India, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Experts

from Bhutan and Myanmar though could not attend, send their forecast inputs to the forum.

The forum was also attended by the experts from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA),

WMO Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME), Bureau

of Meteorology (BoM), Australia and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning

System for Africa and Asia (RIMES). The Forum deliberated on various observed and

emerging climatic features that are known to influence the climate of the region such as the

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean

Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean etc. The key features of these conditions are

as follows.

ENSO Conditions over the Pacific Ocean

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the global scale climate

phenomena that have significant influence on the year-to-year variability of the northeast

23

monsoon rainfall as well as the surface temperatures over South Asia.

Warm ENSO neutral conditions prevailed from mid-March to end of July with SSTs

over east-central tropical Pacific reaching close to El Niño threshold during mid-June to mid-

July turned to cool ENSO neutral conditions in the latter half of August. Currently, cool

ENSO neutral conditions continue. The atmospheric conditions over the Pacific also reflect

patterns consistent with the observed changes in the oceanic conditions. Latest forecasts

from global models indicate cool ENSO neutral conditions are most likely to continue through

the OND season and turn to border line/ weak La Niña conditions during late this year or

early next year.

Conditions over the Indian Ocean

In addition to ENSO conditions over Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have also some influence on Indian monsoon. Over

Indian Ocean, currently neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing. Latest

forecasts from global models forecast indicate IOD neutral conditions to continue during the

northeast monsoon season.

Consensus Outlook for the 2017 OND Season Rainfall over South Asia:

A consensus outlook for the OND season rainfall over South Asia has been prepared

based on the expert assessment of prevailing large-scale global climate indicators

mentioned above and experimental as well as operational long-range forecasts based on

statistical and dynamical models generated by various operational and research centres of

the world including WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) and Global producing centers

of LRF (GPCs).

There is unanimity among the experts that the prevailing cool ENSO neutral

conditions in the equatorial Pacific and IOD neutral conditions in equatorial Pacific are likely

to persist through the OND season and possibly turn into a border line/ weak La Nina

conditions later this year. It is recognized that El Niño and La Niña are not the only factors

that drive global climate patterns, and that the strength of ENSO does not automatically

correspond to the strength of its effects. It is also recognized that in the absence any large

scale SST forcing from Pacific and Indian Oceans, there is significant uncertainty in

prediction of climate of the region due to the high frequency atmospheric variability generally

observed in the region.

The outlook for the 2017 northeast monsoon season (OND) rainfall over South Asia

24

is shown in Fig.1. The figure illustrates the most likely tercile category1 as well as its

probability for each of the 1o latitude x 1o longitude spatial grid boxes over the region. The

box-wise tercile probabilities were derived by synthesis of the available information and

expert assessment. It was derived from an initial set of gridded objective forecasts and

modified through a consensus building discussion of climate experts.

The outlook suggests that below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 OND

Season over some areas of SE Peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and some northeastern

areas of the region. However, above normal is most likely over some southeastern areas of

the region and the coastal areas adjacent to north Bay of Bengal. Over remaining areas of

the region that includes the northwest and central areas of the region which generally receive

very little rain during the season, normal rainfall is most likely.

Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are most likely during the 2017 OND

Season over most parts of the region.

Fig.1. Consensus outlook for the 2017 OND season rainfall over South Asia.

1Tercile categories have equal climatological probabilities, of 33.33% each.

25

Verification of the Consensus Forecast for the 2016 NE Monsoon Season Rainfall

The consensus outlook map (Fig.2) for the northeast monsoon season (October to

December) of 2016, developed in the ninth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook

Forum (SASCOF-9) had indicated above normal rainfall over northwestern parts of Pakistan

and some northeastern parts of the region, below normal rainfall over some areas of north

and eastern parts of the region and normal rainfall over rest of the region. The observed

rainfall anomaly map (Fig.3) shows below normal rainfall over most parts of the region

except over southern parts of Myanmar & Maldives, where the season rainfall was normal

to above normal. However, it is to be noted that the large below normal observed rainfall

areas included climatologically significant rainfall areas of southeast Peninsular India, Sri

Lanka and northern Maldives as indicated in the consensus forecast outlook.

__________________________________

Fig.2. Consensus forecast map of the 2016 Northeast monsoon Rainfall over South Asia.

Fig.3. The observed rainfall anomaly (percentage departure) during the 2016 Northeast Monsoon Season over South Asia.

26

ANNEX 2. NAME OF THE PARTICIPANTS

Sr. No. Name Designation Organization

1 Mr. Mohamed Nasim Muradi Head of Forecast Afghanistan Meteorological

Department

2 Dr. D. S. Pai Government Service IMD, Pune

3 Mr. Shiva Prasad Nepal Government Service Department of Hydrology and

Meteorology (DHM), Nepal

4 Mr. Wimalasuriya A. G. M. M. Deputy Director Department of Meteorology, Sri

Lanka

5 Ms. Gayoung Kim Researcher WMO LC-LRFMME

Korea Meteorological

Administration

6 Mr. Takuya Komori Government Official Tokyo Climate Center

Climate Prediction Division,

JMA, Japan

7 Govindarajalu Srinivasan Scientist RIMES, Bangkok

8 Mitesh Vishwas Sawant Project Officer RIMES, Bangkok

9 Ahmed Rasheed Director Maldives Meteorological

Service

10 Dr. Zahid Deputy Director

General

Maldives Meteorological

Service

11 Ali Shareef Deputy Director

General

Maldives Meteorological

Service

12 Azeema Ahmed Asst. Meteorologist Maldives Meteorological

Service

13 Khadeeja Nusra Met. Technician Maldives Meteorological

Service

14 Hussain Waheed Asst. Meteorologist Maldives Meteorological

Service

15 Ibrahim Humaid Seismologist Maldives Meteorological

Service

16 Mohamed Imadhulla Met. Technician Maldives Meteorological

Service

17 Thanameena A. Kareem Maldives Meteorological

Service

18 Abdul Mushim Maldives Meteorological

Service

19 Abdulh Nuaz Maldives Meteorological

Service

20 Aishath Umar Asst. Director Maldives Meteorological

Service

21 Fathmath Latheefa Admin. Officer Maldives Meteorological

Service

22 Hawwa Shiruhana Met. Technician Maldives Meteorological

Service

23 Shaheema Ibrahim Met. Technician Maldives Meteorological

Service

27

24 Mr. Abdullahi Majeed Minister of State Ministry of Environment and

Energy

25 Mr. Ibrahim Nizam S.Policy Executive Ministry of Environment and

Energy

26 Mr. Ajwad Musthafa Permanent Secretary Ministry of Environment and

Energy

27 Mr. Mohamed Saeed M.

Wajdee

Coordinator Ministry of Environment and

Energy

28 Mr. Ahmed Shamoon Coordinator Ministry of Environment and

Energy

29 Mr. Abdulla Wahid Director General Maldives Meteorological

Service

30 Mr. Abdul Muhsin Ramiz Director Maldives Meteorological

Service

31 Mr. Mohamed Shafiu Asst. Director Maldives Meteorological

Service

32 Mr. Abdullq Muaz Met. Engineer Maldives Meteorological

Service

33 Ms. Madeeha Anwar S. Admin. Officer Maldives Meteorological

Service

34 Mr. Ahmed Niyaz S. Admin. Officer Maldives Meteorological

Service

35 Mr. Naskhulla Ahmed Met. Intru. Technician Maldives Meteorological

Service

36 Kareff Rafisura Economic Affairs

Officer, ICT and

Disaster Risk

Reduction

UN- ESCAP

37 Mr. Suranga Kahandawa Senior Disaster Risk

Management

Specialist

World Bank

38 Ms. Priyanka Dissanayake Senior Disaster Risk

Management

Specialist

World Bank

39 Hawwa Raufath Nizar Research Officer Mininstry of fisheries and

Agriculture

40 Mr. Ibrahim Nizam S.Policy Executive Ministry of Environment and

Energy

41 Mr. Ajwad Musthafa Permanent Secretary Ministry of Environment and

Energy

42 Mr. Mohamed Saeed M.

Wajdee

Coordinator Ministry of Environment and

Energy

43 Mr. Ahmed Shamoon Coordinator Ministry of Environment and

Energy

44 Mohammad Mustafa Water and Sanitation

Department

Maldives Meteorological

Service

45 Hamdhoon Mohamed Assistant Director Climate Change Department,

MEE

46 Hawwa Raufath Nizar Research Officer Ministry of Fisheries and

Agriculture

47 Adam Adheel Horticulture Officer Ministry of Fisheries and

Agriculture

48 Hisaan Hassan Project Director National Disarster Management

Centre

28

49 Ibrahim Naeem Director General Environmental Protection

Agency

50 Abdul Matheen Abdul

Kareem

Inspector of Police Maldives Police Service

51 Mohamed Naseem Warrant Officer Gr. 4 Coast Guard

52 Fathmath Himya Abd.

Majeed

Manager, Office and

Governance Affairs

Maldives Red Crescent

53 Umar Fikry Project Management NDMC

54 Sofeenaz Hassan Director General NDMC

55 Shadiya Adam Operational Analyst World Bank