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Green Growth:A Canadian Perspective

David McLaughlin President and CEO, NRTEE

Canada and the OECD: 50 Years of Converging Interests

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Low-Carbon Economy Stream

How does Canada’s low-carbon performance compare to others?

What climate policy options are best for Canada-U.S. harmonization?

What does a low-carbon growth plan for Canada look like?

Released 2010

Released 2011

To be released 2012

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• Characterizing the opportunity in terms of growth, resilience and competitive advantage

• Identifying and assessing barriers and challenges

• Developing the recommended policy pathway• Integrating into existing approaches and future

needs

Looking @ Green Growth

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“The Green Race is On”And its taking on different forms

PolicyPolicy… If you want to be a leader in the world economy and do well in the

‘Green Race’ you need to transform your domestic market and build capabilities, demand and scale...We need new types of partnerships between business, government and civil society.

(Bjorn Stigson, WBCSD, 2011)

InnovationInnovationMinisters noted that innovation, supported by a strong intellectual

property rights system, is a key to countries’ abilities to achieve economic growth, create green jobs, and protect the environment. (OECD Ministerial Council Meeting, 2011)

InvestmentInvestmentThe British government outlined plans for the world's first state-

backed green investment bank…– a key plank of its pledge to transition the country into a low-carbon economy. (Huffington Post, 2011)

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Where are we now?Where are we now?

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NRTEE G8 Low-carbon Performance Index

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Canadian Emissions to 2020 (Mt CO2e)

Source: Environment Canada Projection , 2011

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600

1200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

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Total GHG Emissions (Megatonnes of CO2e) GDP at Basic Prices ($1997 billions) Emissions Intensity of Economy

Low-carbon Resilience

Total GHG Emissions –with existing government measures

Emission Target for 2020= 607 Mt

Emissions Intensity Target for 2020 = 0.425

From 1990-2008, emissions intensity decreased by 23%, of which 15% occurred between 2000-2008. From 2008 to 2020, an emissions intensity decrease of 14% is forecasted.

Source: NRTEE

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Global Low-carbon Goods and Service Market

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Blue Map

BAU

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Canadian Low-carbon Opportunity to 2050

Source: Delphi Group, 2011- preliminary modelling for the NRTEE

0.9% of global LCGS investment

0.5% of global LCGS

investment

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GHG Emissions Sources vs. Low-Carbon Investments

Source: Conference Board, 2011- preliminary research for the NRTEE

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Canada’s Trade in Low-Carbon Goods in 2010 ($million)

Source: Conference Board, 2011- preliminary research for the NRTEE

- $4,000 - $2,000 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000

Climate Friendly Exports

Climate Friendly Net Imports

Climate Friendly Trade Balance

US Other Top 10 Rest of World

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Illustrative Example – Wind Sector

• Total investment in Canada: $1.4B annually between 2005 and 2010

• Annual exports ~$290M• Annual trade imbalance in the

range of $400M

Source: Analysis undertaken for NRTEE by Delphi Group and EnvrioEconomics

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WIND SECTOR TRADE IN 2010 ($ millions)

Component Exports ImportsTrade

BalanceAll other plastic product manufacturing $127 $162 -$34Turbine and turbine generator set unit manufacturing $7 $445 -$438All other electrical equipment and component manufacturing $110 $168 -$59Other plate work and fabricated structural product manufacturing $20 $0 $20Professional, Scientific & Technical Services $10 $11 -$1Total $274 $786 -$512

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What is the path What is the path forward?forward?

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This is about Canada’s transition to a low-carbon economy & a policy pathway to help get us there.

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NRTEE’s Approach

• Targeted and original RESEARCH

• Regional and national CONVENING

Regional Partners

Canada West Foundation

Mowat Centre for Policy Innovation

Écotech Québec

Atlantic Provinces Economic Council

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Our Approach Characterize the risk and show the opportunity

Develop scenarios that combine growth and decarbonization Identify what is at stake; opportunities gained and lost Assess comparative advantage, identifying regional and sectoral

strengths and challenges

Identify where and how we need to invest to build and maintain competitiveness

Consider public and private investment in trade, innovation, skills, and energy efficiency, and emissions reduction technology and infrastructure

Propose governance structures and mechanisms that build on current approaches and integrate policies and actions

Build a policy pathway that is realistic, integrated, and dynamic for Canada…that is Canadian…for our circumstances and our goals.

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Learn more…www.nrtee-trnee.ca