11-2 Experimental Probability

Course 2

Warm UpWarm Up

Problem of the DayProblem of the Day

Lesson PresentationLesson Presentation

Warm Up

1. A jar contains 6 red, 8 blue, and 10 white marbles. Would you be more likely to pull out a red or a blue marble?

Determine if the event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain.

2. Attendance at a city council meeting is at 100%.Mr. Lloyd is a council member. How likely is it that Mr. Lloyd is at the meeting?

blue

certain

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

Problem of the Day

The probability of Liana making a free

throw was

12

23 . If she made 24 of her free

throws, how many did she miss?

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

Learn to find experimental probability.

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

Vocabulary

experimental probability

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Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

Experimental probability is one way of estimating the probability of an event. The experimental probability of the event is found by comparing the number of times an event occurs to the total number of trials. The more trials you have, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be.

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY

probability number of times an event occurstotal number of trials

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

During skating practice, Sasha landed 7 out of 12 jumps. What is the experimental probability that she will land her next jump?

Additional Example 1: Sports Application

P(event) number of times an event occurstotal number of trials

Substitute data from the experiment.712=

The experimental probability that Sasha will land her next jump is .7

12

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

number of jumps landednumber of jumps attemptedP(jumps landed)

“P(event)” represents the probability that an event will occur. For example, the probability of a flipped coin landing heads up could be written as “P(heads).”

Writing Math

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

Check It Out: Example 1

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During basketball practice, Martha made 9 out of 10 free throws. What is the experimental probability that she will make her next attempt?

P(event) number of times an event occurstotal number of trials

The experimental probability that Martha will make the next free throw is or 90%.9

10

Substitute data from the experiment and write as a percent.

910= = 90%

P(free throws made) number of free throws madenumber of free throws attempted

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

Students have checked out 55 books from the library. Of these, 32 books are fiction.

Additional Example 2A: Application

What is the experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction?

P(fiction) number of fiction books checked outtotal number of books checked out

3255

The experimental probability that the next book checked out will be fiction is approximately 32

55.

Substitute data.

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

What is the experimental probability that

Additional Example 2B: Application

the next book checked out will be nonfiction?

P(nonfiction) number of nonfiction books checked out total number of books checked out

2355

The experimental probability that the next book checkedout will be nonfiction is approximately 23

55.

Substitute data.

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

Check It Out: Example 2A

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Students have a fruit choice for lunch of an apple or a pear. So far 18 of 47 students have selected pears.

What is the experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear?

1847

The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be a pear is approximately 18

47.

Substitute data.

P(pear) number of pears selectedtotal number of fruit selected

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

Check It Out: Example 2B

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What is the experimental probability that next fruit selected will be an apple?

2947

The experimental probability that the next fruit selected will be an apple is approximately 29

47 .

Substitute data.

P(apple) number of apples selectedtotal number of fruit selected

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability

Lesson Quiz

1. In a soccer shoot-out, Bryan made 4 out of 9 goals. What is the experimental probability that

he will make the next shot?

2. It has rained on the last 2 out of 10 Fourth of July parades in Swanton.

A. What is the experimental probability that it

will rain this year on July 4?

B. What is the experimental probability that it

will not rain this year?

15

49

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45

Course 2

11-2 Experimental Probability