106 participating regions in the · eurochambres economic survey is a qualitative regional survey...

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

2001

THE BUSINESS CLIMATE IN EUROPE’S REGIONS

E UROCHAMBRES

E CONOMIC

S URVEY 2001

European Analysis

2001

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

2001

Eurochambres Economic Survey 2001

Publisher:Eurochambres5, rue Archimède, Box 4B-1000 Brussels, BelgiumTel.: +32(0)2-282 08 50Fax: +32(0)2-230 00 38/280 01 91http://www.eurochambres.beE-mail: [email protected]

Editorial Committee:- Mrs. Nina Presern (Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia)- Mr. Jukka Kero (The Central Chamber of Commerce of Finland)- Mr. Pierre Bouwyn (Paris Chamber of Commerce)- Mr. Juan José de Lucio Fernández (High Council of Chambers of Commerce, Industry

and Shipping of Spain)- Mrs. Carine Palacci (Eurochambres)

Co-ordinator:- Mrs. Carine Palacci (Eurochambres)

Assistance:- Mr. Erik Christensen (Eurochambres)

Cover Design:- Imagineering Workshop Sprl, Brussels

Diffusion:Mrs. Christiane Maegerman at Eurochambres, BrusselsTel.: +32(0)2-282 08 72Fax: +32(0)2-280 01 91E-mail: [email protected]

This document can be downloaded for free fromhttp://www.eurochambres.be

The Eurochambres Economic Survey is a Eurochambres product.Contents of the report may be reproduced, provided the source is explicitly stated.

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mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.eurochambres.be/

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

2001

TABLE OF CONTENTS

! GENERAL METHODOLOGY

! PARTICIPATING REGIONS

! 1. Executive Summary 1

! 2. Economic Indicators 6

2.1 Total Turnover, Domestic Sales and Export Sales 72.2 Employment 122.3 Investment 15

! 3. European Regions 18

3.1 Overview 193.2 Focus on.. 34

3.2.1 Major increases and decreases in perceptions 343.2.2 Euro Zone vs. non Euro Zone 373.2.3 EU members vs. Future EU members 39

! ANNEX - Questionnaire EES 2001 41

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

2001

METHODOLOGY

Eurochambres Economic Survey is a qualitative regional survey of business expectations inEurope, implemented by many European Chambers of Commerce and Industry and co-ordinated by Eurochambres. The survey is based on a harmonised questionnaire sent toentrepreneurs from 13 EU Member States and 7 future EU Member States during the Autumnof 2000. Ultimately, some 105.000 companies responded. Results have been aggregated atregional level, with 108 European regions included (89 from the EU and 19 from non EUcountries).

Regional Chambers of Commerce throughout Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Cyprus,Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, TheNetherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom, haveposed companies a set of 12 questions on their current and short term business expectations( total turnover, domestic sales, export sales, employment, investment and businessconfidence ). Entrepreneurs were asked to give a qualitative response, i.e. "better than theprevious year", "the same as the previous year" or "worse than the previous year". Answersfrom entrepreneurs were collected and aggregated by Chambers so as to be representativeby size, sector and region. Random and representative sampling techniques were used.

All regional results have then been centralised at national Chamber level in each country,where a national weighted aggregate has been calculated and an extensive comment on theresults prepared. Eurochambres has subsequently centralised the national reports andregional data, and prepared a European report on the main trends resulting from the survey.National and European results were weighted according to GDP. Statistical methodologiesused in the national surveys differ slightly from one another but all of them ensure reliableresults: a detailed description of the methodology is provided by every country and is includedat the end of each national report (national reports can be downloaded fromhttp://www.eurochambres.be)

When calculating averages or other aggregates (euro zone country, future EU memberstates, survey average etc.), GDP was used for weighting.

The size of the sample as well as the high number of responses ensure that a reliable pictureof the business climate is captured. As shown in the following table (next page), this picture isvery close to the real development of GDP.

Important Notice for the Reader

All graphs in part 1 and 2 of the European Analysis show 'balance figures': these are obtained by deducting thepercentage of companies giving a negative response from the percentage of positively responding companies.

In part 3 of the European Analysis, balanced figures are not used. Graphs show �percentages� which include allanswers (increase, decrease, remain constant). The table called �overview� (3.1) shows only percentages ofincreases and decreases.

When regions� expectations for 2001 are compared with previous years� expectations, they are always based onbalance figures. In order to compare changes in balance figures, the difference between balance figures is divided by200 so that the change in percentage is always related to the same figure. It is therefore possible to comparedifferent regional changes.

The regional ranking in part 3 is based on balance figures.

Comparisons with previous years only include countries/regions that participated in previous surveys.

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

2001

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE EXPECTATIONS / REAL GDP GROWTH

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000*

*EUROSTAT Estimates

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

Business confidence

Real GDP Growth

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

2001

108 Participating Regions in theEUROCHAMBRES ECONOMIC SURVEY 2001*

* NUTS 1 regional classification is used for most countries with the exception ofPortugal, Spain and Sweden, which use NUTS 2. Finland uses a special aggregate of NUTS 3 regions

AUSTRIAEast

SouthWest

BULGARIASouth West

South-CentralSouth-EastNorth-West

North-CentralNorth-East

CYPRUS

CZECH REPUBLIC

DENMARK

FINLANDHelsinki

WestEastNorth

FRANCENordEst

Centre-EstMéditerranéeSud-Ouest

OuestBassin ParisienIle-de-France

GERMANYSchleswig-Holstein

NiedersachsenBremen

HamburgNordrhein-Westfalen

SaarlandRheinland-Pfalz

HessenBaden-Württemberg

BayernBerlin

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

BrandenburgSachsen-Anhalt

SachsenThüringen

GREECE

HUNGARYCentral Hungary

Central TransdanubiaWest TransdanubiaSouth Transdanubia

North HungaryNorth Great PlainSouth Great Plain

ITALYNorth WestNorth EastLombardia

Emilia & RomagnaCenterLazio

Abruzzo & MoliseCampania

SouthSicilia & Sardegna

LUXEMBOURG

MALTA

THENETHERLANDS

NorthEast

SouthWest

PORTUGALNorte

CentroLisboa e Vale do Tejo

AlentejoAlgarveAçoresMadeira

ROMANIA

SLOVENIACentral

Non-Central

SPAINAndalucía

AragónAsturiasBalearesCanariasCantabria

Castilla-La ManchaCastilla y León

CataluñaValenciana

ExtremaduraGaliciaMadridMurcia

NavarraPaís Vasco

La Rioja

SWEDENÖvre Norrland

Mellersta NorrlandStockholm

Norra MellansverigeÖstra Mellansverige

UNITED KINGDOMScotland

North EastNorth West

Yorkshire & HumbersideEast MidlandsWest Midlands

WalesNorthern Ireland

East AngliaSouth WestSouth East

London

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

12001

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

22001

European entrepreneurs express very high business expectations again for 2001. New countriesincluded in Eurochambres� Survey this year reinforce this general trend with especially high overallbusiness expectations.

These prospects prove the continuing dynamism achieved by European economies over the pastyears and especially in 2000, which was a very successful year, quite in line with the forecasts madeone year ago by Eurochambres� Survey.

The international economic environment has been favourable in 2000 with an exceptional rise in worldtrade, high growth rates achieved in many countries, notably the United States and Europe, as well assubstantial increases in employment.

In 2001, growth in Europe will be supported by both strong household demand (supported by fiscalpolicy in some countries) and a still high export dynamism. This will compensate for the negative effectof the slight slowdown in USA and persistently high oil prices.

A sign of this optimism is clearly perceptible in improving employment and investment expectations ofEuropean companies, which provide a strong basis for future growth. The results for employment(27% of firms intend to hire more staff against only 11% intending to decrease staff level) andinvestment (32% intend to invest more against 17% intending to invest less) are the most optimisticever recorded by Eurochambres� survey. However, unemployment is still a problem for a number ofcountries.

Total turnover expectations for 2001 are quite positive with an average balance figure of +39%.The proportion of companies expecting a higher turnover is 52% and that of companies expecting adecrease is 13%. Domestic sales and exports sales show similarly high levels of expectations.

Overall, companies in both European Union and future EU members express positive expectations for2001. However, optimism is especially noticeable in companies of the future EU members, several ofwhich expect even better business conditions. The prospect of joining the European Union seems toadd to this optimism.

General conditions are very favourable for manufacturing sectors. This is notably due to the low euroexchange rate which influenced competitiveness and to the expansion of world trade. However,growth in services lie behind most performances highlighted by the indicators. This trend is not onlyperceptible in EU members but also in some future EU members.

* “EU 12” is the indicator for all 12 participating EU countries in 2000.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR 1997 - 2001*

-505

1015202530354045

BusinessConfidence

TotalTurnover

DomesticSales

Export Sales Employment Investment

1997 1998 1999 2000 "EU 12" 2001 2001

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

32001

Austria*

The indicator for overall business confidence inAustria showed a positive value for 2000. Thisresult is in line with the high growth rate inAustria. For 2001 the entrepreneurs are lessoptimistic regarding business confidence. Thepositive values turned to negative, althoughonly a slight decline in other indicators isrecorded.

BulgariaThe ongoing process of transformation inBulgaria reflects upon business confidence.Expectations for 2001 are quite positive, risingfrom a reported balance figure of -17%recorded in 2000 to +38% for 2001.

Companies are now more involved in theprocess of establishment of a market economyand their positive expectations are mostlyconnected with such changes as a decrease incorporate tax rate, a shortening of the periodfor VAT refund and forthcoming alleviation ofthe customs and licences regimes.

CyprusThe current economic climate is very favorablein Cyprus. All economic indicators are positiveand encouraging. For 2001, business peopleexpect that revenues from both national salesand exports will continue to increase. Theyexpect investment to grow and new jobs to becreated. Clearly the economic growth isexpected to continue in 2001.

Czech RepublicOptimists had a large majority in the balance ofopinions on the general economic climate. Thisfully corresponds to expectations aboutturnover, domestic sales, export sales,employment and investment. Positive opinionson both 2000 and 2001 were held by 68% and71% of respondents respectively, and negativeexpectations by 11% and 6%. Compared toopinions in 2000, manufacturers extendedpositive expectations. In services, the balancestays quite the same.

DenmarkDanish enterprises have positive expectationsagain. After negative balance figures in 1999,the balance figure is +10% for 2000 and +17%in 2001.

However there is still a difference to figuresfrom 1998 and before, when the economy was

* Data is not available for some countries and/or for some years,which explains blanks in the graphics.

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

balance figures

A ustria

B ulgaria

C yprus

C zech R epublic

D enm ark

Finland

France

G erm any

G reece

H ungary

Italy

Luxem bourg

M alta

The Netherlands

P ortugal

R om ania

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

EU Average

Survey average

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN EUROPE EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001*

1999 2000 2001

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

42001

experiencing high growth. Enterprises have notyet seen the full impact of the politicalintervention from 1998.Thus there are stillmany changes likely to influence expectations.

FinlandUncertainties concerning the evolution of theglobal and Finnish economy are clearly visiblewhen considering the 2001 businessconfidence data. The balance figure dropsfrom +28% to +5%. A large majority ofcompanies, 59%, expect business outlook tostay constant in 2001. 23% expect animprovement and 18% a deterioration. Sector-wise differences are small.

Labour negotiations led to a wide-scale two-year agreement in mid-November, after thissurvey. This will certainly remove a centraldomestic uncertainty. As the majority of thewage contracts shall not be agreed untilJanuary 2003, framework for economic growthis promising.

FranceProspects are favourable for the Frencheconomy in 2001, although overall growth, witha 3% expected rate, is likely to remain slightlybelow that enjoyed during 2000. Mostindicators reach high levels by recentstandards, and business confidence is stillstrong despite uncertainties about internationalenvironment and debates about the suitableeconomic policy. While there is less optimismin large firms, smaller ones should benefit fromthe shift towards a more accommodating fiscalpolicy, in view of local and national elections tocome.

GermanyIn Germany the upswing will carry into 2001.The growth rate is fast, but as the autumnforecasts suggest, it is likely to ease off a little.Exports will continue to provide the impetus,investment will encourage home demand(higher operating rates and company taxreform), and the improved employmentsituation and tax relief will generate privateconsumption, but at the same time higher oilprices will reduce purchasing power. Moreover,rising import costs will cut into company profits.This entails risks and makes management notquite so confident as they were in the spring.

GreeceThe level of business confidence in Greece isvery high. The net balance of responses foryear 2001 is +62%, significantly higher than in2000 and is linked to the overall growth.

The degree of confidence for 2001 is high bothfor the industrial and services sector, but theservices sector appear to be extremelyconfident with a +76% net balance, versus a+57% net balance for the industrial sector.Business confidence for 2001 varies with thesize of the company. Large companies expressmuch higher balance level than the small ones.

Hungary

Hungarian firms are rather pessimistic evenwhen this is not proved by economic facts.In the autumn of 2000, the balance figure forbusiness confidence was +12%, somewhathigher than the previous year. Industrial firmsjudge their present business situation muchmore favourably (22%) than service companies(8%). The large difference between them isexpected to be maintained. The highestbusiness confidence for 2001 is expressed inNorthern Hungary and in the Western andCentral Transdanubian regions.

ItalyThe regions with a more positive degree ofconfidence are located in Northern and CentralItaly, where favourable trends in turnover andemployment have recently been experienced.The highest levels can be recorded in Centraland North-East regions, with businesses ofEmilia Romagna showing an excellent ability toimprove previous positive performances.Expectations for 2001 seem to express abetter business confidence all over the country.

LuxembourgThe positive trend registered in the lasteconomic survey continues in the presentsurvey, which reflects the favourable economicsituation prevailing in Luxembourg. Theanalysis of the European Economic Survey2001 leads to the conclusion that a majority ofLuxembourg companies have experiencedvery positive results all over the year 2000 andthat they are confident for a sustainableeconomic growth in the future, despite thepresence of some specific risks. Neverthelessbusiness confidence remains high in theenvironment of tax reductions for households(in 2001 and 2002) and for companies (in2002).

MaltaThe overall business confidence is generallypositive for the year 2000 and should improvenext year. The expected balance confidence is+25% for 2001.

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

52001

The NetherlandsFirms in the Netherlands have very positiveresults in 2000 and show great confidence for2001. Economic growth is at a very high level.Optimism stems from a strong growth inexports. The optimistic outlook is reflected inthe high expectations for employment growth.But labour is getting scarce and labourshortage might slow down economic growth in2001.

PortugalDespite a slowdown in the economic growth in1999 and 2000, business confidence for 2001is optimist overall with some markedreservations. There are some uncertaintyrelated with interest rates and oil prices.

RomaniaAlthough business confidence of companies israther moderate for 2000, the expectations for2001 are much higher: 79% of the companiestrust that general business developments inthe next year will be favourable.

SloveniaThe Slovenian economy is on the path ofsteady expansion, and prospects for 2001 arepretty favourable, too. Slovenian entrepreneursexpress positive business confidence for 2001,with 72 % having optimistic expectations andonly 3 % expecting a less favourable businessposition. In the manufacturing sector the

business confidence is higher than in theservice sector. The best results are related toexporting companies and companies from theCentral-region

SpainConfidence amongst Spanish businesses for2001 continues to run high, though moremoderately than during the precedingaccounting period. This behaviour correspondsto the expected slight decline of the economicactivity and the investment process as well asthe creation of jobs in the Spanish economy.

SwedenProspects for 2001 are considered favourableby 73% of all responding companies �companies in Stockholm again being the mostoptimistic (80%). Almost no companies expect2001 to be less favourable than 2000.

United KingdomA positive balance figure of +31% ofbusinesses believe that business confidencewill increase in 2001. At a regional level, onlythe South East confidence for next year will belower than was excepted for 2000. The servicesector reports a higher level of confidence thanthe manufacturing sector, with 38% ofbusinesses being more confident aboutprospects in 2001.

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

62001

2. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

72001

2.1 Total turnover, domestic salesand export sales*

The year 2000 has been very good forEuropean companies, according to theentrepreneurs, and quite in line with theirforecasts.

Total turnover expectations for 2001 are mainlypositive too; with balance figures at the level of+40%. Companies believe in furtherexpansion, even at a slightly slower pace thanin 2000 on average. Regarding export salesthey count on further world trade expansion,and for domestic sales they expect an increasein household demand in most Europeancountries, additionally benefiting from tax cuts.Among EU countries, 53% on average expecta rise in turnover and only 13% a fall. Mostoptimistic are the companies in Denmark,Finland and Greece. Among the countries whojoin the survey this year, only Hungariancompanies express somewhat less optimism,the others being fairly optimistic regardingturnover expectations. Romania, Slovenia andCyprus are looking with most confidence toturnover possibilities.

AustriaAll sales indicators showed highly positivevalues for 2000. The prospects for 2001 arepositive too, but the results are not expected toreach those of 2000. This is because of thebudget consolidation programme of thegovernment as well as the general slowdownof the business cycle.

BulgariaTurnover expectations for 2001 showprevailing positive results, the balance values(+14% in 2000) growing to +51% in 2001.

The highest percentage of positiveexpectations for turnover is expressed bycompanies of the North Central Region (63%).

Regarding domestic sales, companies in theindustrial sector have higher expectationsregarding increased profits for 2001: 55% ofthe interviewed industrial companies vs. 45%of the interviewed companies of the servicesector. The expectations for export sales showa rise with an average value of +40%, withespecially high expectations in the NorthCentral Region.


0 20 40 60 80 100

balance figures

Austria

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denm ark

Finland

France

Germ any

Greece

Hungary

Italy

Luxem bourg

M alta

The Netherlands

Portugal

Rom ania

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

EU Average

Survey average

TOTAL TURNOVER EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001*

1999 2000 2001

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

82001

Cyprus*

The vast majority of Cypriot companies (80%)expect their turnover to increase and sales inboth domestic and foreign market toexpand.further. Increasing privateconsumption, public spending and capitalinvestment contributed to GDP growth andgood general market conditions. Increasedcompetitiveness of Cypriot products andservices have positively affected exports in2000. Companies from both sectors of theeconomy are very optimistic for 2001 andconfident for even better results.

Czech RepublicExpectations for total turnover of Czechcompanies are more optimistic for 2001 incomparison to 2000. In industry mostmanagers (almost 82%) expect improvementsin turnover in 2001, and only 3% expectturnover to decrease. Regarding turnover,there is less optimism in services.

Expectations for domestic and export salesfollow the same general pattern. Regardingdomestic sales, there are more positiveexpectations in services, which is a result ofservices which are adapting to the transition.

Trends in exports, as a very sensitive elementaffecting the stability of macroeconomic trendsin the Czech Republic, are mainly supportedby manufacturing firms.

DenmarkSeventy five percent of enterprises expectturnover will increase in 2001. Only 4% expecta decrease, which gives a balance figure of+71%.The optimism is broadly founded, whichcorresponds to the generally positiveexpectations regarding 2001. The largestoptimism is found in the wholesale sectorwhere balance figures are up from +24% forthe year 2000 to +76% for 2001.

Since the political intervention in 1998, privateconsumption has seen growth rates less than1%. Domestic demand and in particular privateconsumption is expected to rise in 2001. In thislight it is no surprise that the balance figure fordomestic sales rises from +14% in 2000 to+58% in 2001.


0 20 40 60 80 100

balance figures

Austria

Bulgaria

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denm ark

Finland

France

Germ any

Greece

Hungary

Italy

Luxem bourg

M alta

The Netherlands

Portugal

Rom ania

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

EU Average

Survey average

DOMESTIC SALES EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001*

1999 2000 2001

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

92001

The export sector is the fastest growing sectorat the moment, pulling the economy out of theslump, and this is true for 2000 as well as2001. The balance figure is +37% for 2000whereas in 2001, 63% of enterprises expecthigher exports while only 3 % expect a decline.Indeed, following a series of years with lowgrowth on the Danish export markets, severalof Denmark�s most important trading partnersare experiencing high growth. This givesDanish exporters an opportunity to win backsome market shares that had been lost overthe past years due to continuously reducedcompetitiveness.

Finland*

In 2001, domestic markets are expected togrow nearly as extensively as in 2000. Twothirds of the Finnish companies say theyforesee more sales to home markets. Only sixper cent of the respondents expect decliningsales development to occur. The same appliesto the expectations of domestic sales.

Finnish businesses express again a verypositive export outlook. The balance figure forexports is +65%, which is only two points lowerthan expected for 2000 and in fact 5 pointshigher than the realised figure in 2000. Justover 70% of the firms say they will export moreand only 5% expect a decline in exports.

FranceFrench firms should enjoy a high level ofactivity once again, with global indicatorsalmost remaining at the same level. Exportsshould stay on a steady path of expansion,even if the same remarkable performance as in2000 is not likely to be achieved, due to thedeceleration of the growth rate expected in theUnited States and in some Europeancountries. However, consumer spendingshould pick up and partly compensate for thisless inflation after recent oil price rises, wageincreases, tax cuts decided by the governmentand, most of all, employment growth, shouldsupport the global purchasing power. Servicecompanies, and especially retailers, reportincreasing optimism about sales.

GermanyGerman industrial companies are veryconfident about exports next year. The reasonis the continuing strong demand from abroadand their growing competitiveness, whichstems partly from the euro�s external


-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

balance figures

A ustria

B ulgaria

C yprus

C zech R epublic

D enm ark

Finland

France

G erm any

G reece

H ungary

Italy

Luxem bourg

M alta

The Netherlands

P ortugal

R om ania

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

EU Average

Survey average

EXPORT SALES EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001*

1999 2000 2001

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

102001

weakness. However, that demand could bejeopardised next year if higher oil prices impacton the world economy.

GreeceFor 2001, entrepreneurs are quite optimisticabout the growth in their total turnover with anet balance of +67%. Net balances for bothindustrial and service sectors are high.Notably, only 7% of industrial enterprises and8% of companies in the services sectorforecast a decrease in their total revenues in2001. However, larger-sized companies aremost optimistic, while smaller companies aremore cautious.

Greek companies are quite optimistic withrespect to domestic sales. For 2000, the netbalance figure is +40% while it grows to +54%for 2001. Evidently, domestic sales are beingencouraged by the continual positive growth ofdomestic consumption.

Export forecasts for 2001 are quite positive,they have doubled compared to 2000 as aresult of Greece recent accession to the EMU.However, smaller companies with 1 to 9employees show a negative balance for 2000,and are not convinced that 2001 will bemarked by a significant export upswing.

Hungary

Total turnover of Hungarian firms grewsignificantly in 2000, mainly in Western andCentral Transdanubia (part of the country westof the Danube).

Sales expectations for 2001 promise acontinuation of the high rate of growthachieved in 2000. Service firms are optimistic,manufacturing companies a little bit morepessimistic.

The less developed regions of the country,however, forecast a higher rate of turnover.This implies equalising tendencies between themore and the less developed regions ofHungary.

This business survey promises a further highrate of growth of Hungarian exports in 2001.Every region indicates an acceleration inexport activity in 2001. The most optimistic arethe entrepreneurs in Northern Great Plain. Asfar as domestic sales are concerned, thebalance figures suggest quite a similar trendfor 2001 as for 2000.

ItalyThe widespread uncertainty which underminesconsumers� confidence for 2000 caused slowsdown growth in a fundamental component ofdomestic demand such as privateconsumption. With regard to the forecasts for2001, a slight increase in family spending isexpected, owing to a lighter tax burden.

Turnover trends for 2000 are particularlypositive for the Central and Northern part of theCountry. It is important to underline the brilliantperformance in Abruzzo and Molise, togetherwith a substantial recovery in South Italy andthe Islands.

The Italian trade balance has had a variabletrend in 2000, due to an increase in exports (atleast in the first 10 months of the year) whichwas not always balanced by imports and whichhad a boom owing to the increased oil prices.

LuxembourgThe results are underlining that the positivetrend registered since 1997 might go on. Theresults concerning export sales confirm thatthe Luxembourg economy was driven during2000 by the striking performance of exports ofgoods and services. The conditions for acontinuation of this dynamic evolution arepresent on the national market and on theexport markets. Managers of bothmanufacturing and services companies keepon being confident about the national market,in particular because of a growing purchasingpower of consumers. Industry companies aremore optimistic on export market prospects.

MaltaBoth domestic sales and exports are perceivedby respondents to remain positive. The shareof businesses which are projecting improvedsales in the local and foreign markets exceedsthe share which expects demand to fall.Domestic demand for manufacturing goodsdecreased in relation to production in the year2000. The impact of the removal of a secondtranche of import levies in 2001 will be a soundtest for the effectiveness of local competitionand for choosing between remaining inproduction or turning to imports to complementlocal sales.

The NetherlandsDevelopment of turnover for Dutch business in2000 is equally favourable as in 1999.Domestic turnover shows a satisfying growthand exports perform very well. For 2001

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

112001

entrepreneurs are very optimistic for domesticturnover as well as for exports.

PortugalThere are good perspectives about theevolution of total turnover. Though domesticsales are slowing down, exports areincreasing, partly due to the evolution of theparity EUR/USD and the economic growth ofmain foreign trading partners.

RomaniaThe performance of the Romanian companieshas largely improved during 2000. 82% of thereporting companies indicated that theirturnover increased. This evolution is very muchdue to the general trend of recovery marked bythe Romanian economy, which will register apositive economic growth for the first time overthe last four years. The expectations for 2001are even better: 87% of companies expect abetter performance.

National sales have increased in 2000 ascompared to 1999, and forecasts for 2001 areeven higher with 78% of companies expectingtheir national sales to increase. Exports havebeen considered to be the �engine� of theRomanian economy in 2000. Forecasts for2001 promise even better since 72% of thecompanies expect to extend their export sales.

SloveniaVery positive turnover expectations - a balancefigures of +83% for 2001 - have been foundedlargely on export results and expectations inmanufacturing in 2000 and 2001. The positiveexport outlook is also confirmed by the balancefigure for 2001, which stands at +82%.Companies believe in the continuation ofEuropean economic dynamism. The domesticmarket plays a less important role in generally,with a balance figure of +56% in expectationsfor 2001. However, companies in the Central-region are more optimistic regarding domesticsales, and companies of non-central-region,with their stronger manufacturing orientation,are more optimistic regarding export sales.

SpainSpanish companies forecast a positivedevelopment in 2001, although slightly moremoderate than the previous year. 69% of theentrepreneurs expect to increase their totalturnover, while only 4% expect a reduction.Behaviour per sector is similar, perhaps slightlymore in services. This evolution is explained bythe slow deceleration of domestic sales,counteracted in part by growth in exports.

SwedenSixty-eight percent of companies reportincreased turnover in 2000. There is nomarked difference between regions. Theprospects for 2001 are somewhat less positive,with 62% of companies foreseeing anincrease.Fifty-eight percent of companies � with smalldifferences between regions � have reportedincreases in their domestic sales. One-thirdreports constant national sales for 2000. For2001, 57% of all responding companies lookforward to increased domestic sales with smallregional variations. Very few companies expecta decline in their domestic sales in 2001.Over half of all responding companies reporthaving increased their exports during 2000,with Norra Mellansverige leading with 65%.One third of all companies report constantexports for 2000. Reported decreases are few.On average, half the number of respondingcompanies foresees an increase of theirexports for 2001. Only 8% of all reportingcompanies expect export sales to decrease in2001.

United KingdomMost companies expect improvements inturnovers. The exceptions are companies fromScotland, the West Midlands and Easternregions.Manufacturing firms report that activity hasimproved over 2000 and that prospects forfurther recovery are good, with 48% expectingan increase during 2001. The service sectorfigures show a varied picture with regionsgrowing at different rates during 2000. Theoverall figure for 2000 is +56% and turnover isexpected to slow slightly to +55% in 2001.The national balance of manufacturersreporting increases in domestic sales during2000 remains weak and is expected tocontinue in the forthcoming year.Service sector firms in all regions have postedstronger figures than their manufacturingcounterparts in 2000. 28% of service sectorfirms report improved sales and 22% expecttheir UK sales to increase in 2001.Exporters report that the high value of thepound against the euro continues to adverselyaffect sales, although the strength of worlddemand has provided manufacturers withsome respite. However, this was not enough tolead to expansion, with only �2% of firmsreporting an increase in export sales during2000. UK firms believe conditions will remaindifficult throughout 2001 with moremanufacturers expecting a fall in export sales.

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

122001

2.2 Employment*

The overall development of employmentappears to be fairly positive in 2001.The balance figure for expected labourincrease is rising in 8 EU countries. Only 3countries show decreasing balance figures(Finland, Italy and Portugal) even though thesefigures are still positive.In future EU members, the expectations for2001 are mainly positive with an exception ofSlovenia where companies still intend toreduce their staff.The results on employment are the mostoptimistic ever recorded by the Eurochambressurvey. In several countries, businesses are worriedabout the potential lack of a qualified labourforce.

AustriaThe development of employment showed aslight negative tendency between 2000 and2001. This result accords with the forecasts ofthe economic research institutions, whichdocuments a slight downward movement of thelabour force growth.

BulgariaThe expectations for 2001 are optimistic. Thebalance numbers indicate positive tendenciesfor employment, with the average values of theindicator growing from (-9%) in 2000 to (+20%)in 2001.

CyprusEmployment in Cyprus in 2001 is anticipated toexpand. About 58% of the businesspeopleexpect an increase in their workforce. Theexpected increase is registered by both themanufacturing and the services sector. Theincrease in employment is directly related tothe expectation of increased business activity.

Czech RepublicThe balance figure for employment is over thesurvey average and reflects an employmentgrowth perspective for 2001. Performance inindustry will be slightly better than in services(manufacturing +24%, services +19%).

DenmarkThe balance figure is +26% for 2001, whichmeans another increase in labour force andfurther decline in unemployment rates. Thelargest problem appears to be related to hiring


-15 5 25 45 65 85

balance figures

A ustria

B ulgaria

C yprus

C zech R epublic

D enm ark

Finland

France

G erm any

G reece

H ungary

Italy

Luxem bourg

M alta

The Netherlands

P ortugal

R om ania

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

EU Average

Survey average

EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001*

1999 2000 2001

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

132001

qualified employees since Denmark has a lowlevel of unemployment and a tight labourmarket.

FinlandFor 2001, Finnish enterprises are morecautious in hiring new staff than in 2000. Still,the figures remain very positive. Some 37% ofrespondents plan to take in more staff, and15% expect they will reduce the amount oflabour force. Companies in the Helsinki-regionare the most optimistic in terms of recruitment.

FranceEncouraged by general economic activity andthe effects of the 35-hour week, job creationpeaked in 2000 with a 2% rise in totalemployment. Expectations are almost asfavourable for 2001, even more so as the 35-hour week has not been brought into effect inmost smaller businesses. A large majority ofthe 300 000 new jobs expected will be either intrade or other services. Large firms expect totake on more staff as well as smaller ones.The unemployment rate, still above theEuropean average, should reduce once againand might be close to 8% at the end of 2001.

GermanyIn Germany, corporate manpower planningportends toward a growth in employment for2001. The proportion of companies intendingto increase their workforce is larger than at anytime since reunification. Thus the demand forlabour ought to have a favourable impact onthe labour market. It is doubtful, however,whether sufficient skilled labour will beavailable.

GreeceForecasts for 2001 do not differ from 2000indicating that changes in demand are unlikely.Services have a higher positive balance for2001 compared to industry, mainly reflectingthe policies which have been adopted by theState to encourage hiring of new employees bythe services sector. It appears that moreemployment opportunities for 2001 will begenerated in the larger companies (50 or moreemployees) versus the medium-sized and thesmaller companies.

HungaryMost of the respondents (71%) expect nochange in employment, 11% of firms intend todecrease and 18% want to increase thenumber of employees. The biggestimprovement can be expected in NorthernGreat Plain (with the highest unemployment

rate at present). Firms in CentralTransdanubia (with low unemployment rate)also plan to increase the number of employeessignificantly. In manufacturing, more new jobswill be created next year than in the serviceindustries.

ItalyThe balance figure for year 2001 has risen incomparison to previous estimates. The growthin employment is a consequence of thewidespread use of types of flexible contracts.

LuxembourgThe results concerning job creation are in linewith the high growth rate of employment(+5,5%) in 2000. This positive evolutionconcerning job creation will go on also in 2001.One problem concerns the lack of workforceon the national labour market. It is a fact thatLuxembourg companies meet growingdifficulties to find a sufficient number of peopleto satisfy their demand for labour, which mightlead to inflationary pressures.

MaltaThe rate of accumulation of capital andpersonnel will be slowing down in 2001. Itcould be that businesses are considering aperiod of consolidation before furtherdevelopment.

The NetherlandsThe employment growth in the services sectoris larger than in the manufacturing industry.For 2001 entrepreneurs expect continuingemployment growth, in spite of a growingproblem of labour shortage.

PortugalThe growth in employment will continue in2001 but at a slower pace. Given the low rateof unemployment, Portugal will need humanresources in order to support the economicgrowth.

RomaniaFor 2001, forecasts indicate a relative increaseof the workforce, thus reflecting the positivetrend in the evolution of the companies.

SloveniaDespite generally positive businessexpectations for 2001, companies in Sloveniado not have a similar view on employment. Asmuch as 41% of companies expect theirworkforce to remain constant, but the share ofthose who expect to downsize their staff,especially in manufacturing, again exceeds the

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

142001

share of those who intend to expand theirworkforce. According to the survey, thesituation regarding job creation will be lessfavourable in the Non-central-region than in theCentral-region.

SpainSpanish economy will continue to createemployment in the year 2001. 45% ofentrepreneurs expect to increase staff for thesixth year running and only 8% forecast theopposite. This positive trend �more intense inthe service activities- slows slightly, in keepingwith the moderation forecast for generaleconomic activity.

SwedenThe majority of companies expect theirworkforce to remain constant in 2001. 35% ofthe reporting companies expect to increasetheir workforce in 2001 � with Stockholmleading with a further 45%. However,decreased workforces are expected in someregions (22% in Norra Mellansverige).

United KingdomBusinesses expect a slowdown in job creationin 2001, with only 14% of firms reporting anincrease. Most regions believe thatemployment in the manufacturing sector willfall, with Scotland showing the mostpessimistic outlook at �3%. The outlook for2001 in the manufacturing sector shows amodest slowdown from an already low base.The service sector meanwhile looks set tocontinue expansion but at a more modest pacethan reported in 2000.

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

152001

2.3 Investment*

European entrepreneurs� expectations forinvestment remain quite positive for 2001.Expectations of the larger EU countries areclose to those expected in the previous year.This reflects the strong macroeconomicdevelopment, the need for new productioncapacity, and still low long-term interest rates.

The outlook for future EU members is evenmore positive in accord with a clear economicrecovery in several of them.

AustriaThe growth of investments in both sectors wasexpected to decline. The survey showed amore optimistic result in the manufacturingsector where the net balance lies above thetotal balance.

BulgariaPerspectives for 2001 are optimistic (+38%).51% of companies reported positive resultswhile only 12% reported a decrease ininvestment.Expectations are considerably more positive inthe manufacturing sector.

CyprusCypriot companies have a positive outlookabout their investment plans, since 64% ofthem stated their intention to further increasetheir capital investment. This expansion is inline with their forecast about increasedbusiness activity and better investmentfinancing conditions.

Czech RepublicThere is slight growth in optimism in 2001 incomparison with 2000. This change wasespecially obvious in manufacturing and led toan increase in the positive balance for theeconomy as a whole.

DenmarkCompanies� expectations on investment for2001 has increased compared to the lastsurvey. This trend matches the overallexpectations in the Danish economy.Increases in investment by Danish enterprisescan be related to the low level ofunemployment.


-10 10 30 50 70 90

balance figures

A ustria

B ulgaria

C yprus

C zech R epublic

D enm ark

Finland

France

G erm any

G reece

H ungary

Italy

Luxem bourg

M alta

The Netherlands

P ortugal

R om ania

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

United Kingdom

EU Average

Survey average

INVESTMENT EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001*

1999 2000 2001

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

162001

FinlandFinnish businesses expect investment activityto stay at the same pace of growth in 2001 as2000.A positive balance figure of +18% isanticipated. There are not significantdifferences between manufacturing andservice sector results. Companies in NorthernFinland are most optimistic. The other regionslag somewhat behind. The differencesbetween the other three regions are onlyminor.

FranceInvestments have been expanded byapproximately 7% in 2000, which is more thanexpected, in response to high levels of activity.In many manufacturing sectors, capacitieshave not allowed the required production.Although capital expenditure is forecasted togrow in 2001 by a net balance of +15% ofentrepreneurs - as compared to +22% reportedfor 2000 - there may not be a very significantchange in trend.

GermanyIndustrial companies, particularly largecorporations, have increased their investmentbudgets considerably for 2001. High operatingrates and the expected growth of exports areforcing companies, especially large industrialfirms, to extend their capacity.

GreeceThe investment ambitions of Greekentrepreneurs for the year 2001 is high.Investments may actually be higher than thoseforecasted by companies particularly if there isa further lowering of interest rates.Nevertheless, only 5% of companies expect adecrease in investments for 2001. Companiesin both the industrial and the services sectorforecast an overall increase in investments.

HungaryAccording to the present survey, 43% of thecompany managers express the opinion thatthey will increase investment activity in 2001.There is no significant difference in investmentplans between industrial and service firms.Firms in the two northern regions report thelargest increases in investments.

ItalyInvestment is the most dynamic componentassisted by expansion opportunities inproduction capacity and low interest ratesInvestment is expected to increase in 2001especially in the manufacturing sector, owing

to the performances of North-Eastern regionsand Emilia-Romagna.

LuxembourgResults concerning investment are again veryfavourable. Companies continuously haveadapted and modernised their physical capitalin order to satisfy the growing demand and toraise their productivity. According to thepresent survey, 43% of the companymanagers affirm that they have increased thelevel of investments in 2000 and a third of thisgroup intend to increase investment in 2001.

MaltaProjected increases in demand for productsand services are complemented by anexpansion in the capital base of firms. The rateof accumulation of capital and personnel willbe slowing down in 2001. It could be thatbusinesses will be considering a period ofconsolidation before deciding on their nextmoves.

The NetherlandsFor 2001 the tendency to invest has risensharply, which illustrates the high confidence ofDutch entrepreneurs.

PortugalDespite the recent evolution of the interestrates, companies do not intend to makesignificant changes in their high rates ofinvestment. This is a clear sign of confidencein the business future.

RomaniaProspects for 2001 are considerably higher.Over 79% of the companies expect that theirinvestment will rise in 2001. Under theconditions of a constant decrease of theforeign inflow of capital in Romania, thepositive performance of national investmentsshows that most of these were due to thenational companies. This indicates the strengthof the economic recovery that started this year.

SloveniaAn improved situation in manufacturingindustry led to somewhat the better investmentexpectations for 2001. The balance ofresponse to investment expectations for 2001is +47% in manufacturing and +32% inservices. Together with the estimates for 2000,the answers of companies indicate solidmoderate investment activity in Slovenia. In2001, it should be more pronounced in theCentral Slovenia region, whereas in 2000 -

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

172001

according to the survey estimate - it has beenbetter in the Non-Central regions.

SpainInvestments by Spanish companies willcontinue to grow steadily during the year 2001,though less intensely than during the lastaccounting period, as is the general trend in allsectors. This result corresponds to theelevated investment process of the last fewyears, a consequence of the notable reductionof interest rates, and increase in capital costs.

SwedenHalf of the responding companies expect nodifference in investments for 2001. One thirdexpect to increase investments in 2001.Thereare slight regional variations..

United KingdomBusinesses generally report an improvingpicture for the year 2001 with 17% saying theyexpect to increase investment levels. Mostregions anticipate an increase in investment in2001, however the South East, North East andEastern regions expect investment to slow.Service sector companies expect lowerinvestment levels in 2001.

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

182001

3. EUROPEAN REGIONS

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

192001

3.1 Overview***

The first table of the regional overview shows optimism and pessimism of all participatingregions for all indicators. It also compares this year�s expectations for business confidencewith last year�s (see arrows).

The next graphic page 22 ranks regions per optimism according to balance figures: theregions appearing at the top of the graph are the most optimistic ones. It is interesting to notethat among these most optimistic regions, there are regions from both EU and non EUmembers.

Expectations for 2001*

EU Regions** Turnover

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Domesticsales

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Exports

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Employment

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Investment

☺☺☺☺ % ####

businessconfidence☺☺☺☺ % ####

AUSTRIAEast ▼ 47 12 40 14 56 2 19 11 23 25 17 32South ▼ 53 12 47 10 56 2 30 15 28 27 17 23West ▼ 55 7 45 10 57 6 23 10 35 28 18 28BULGARIASouth-West 64 11 56 13 44 13 28 14 57 17 49 13South-Central 59 6 52 7 41 11 23 6 41 12 45 12South-East 66 16 55 21 43 25 36 13 50 16 50 11North-West 41 16 31 19 34 31 25 9 44 16 44 19North-Central 68 5 52 3 60 3 35 3 62 7 75 25North-East 32 4 26 6 22 1 17 6 25 3 26 6CYPRUSCountry 80 2 79 2 36 7 58 3 64 3 78 4CZECH REPUBLIC.Country 79 4 66 7 63 4 37 15 53 12 71 6DENMARKCountry ▲ 75 4 67 9 63 3 39 13 31 9 29 12FINLANDHelsinki ▼ 80 5 78 6 74 8 45 14 37 20 27 15West ▼ 73 5 56 4 69 4 36 11 34 17 19 18East ▼ 62 9 53 11 65 5 28 18 34 19 24 20North ▼ 85 2 71 4 83 0 36 21 53 22 22 22FRANCENord ▲ 59 8 56 9 57 10 27 6 27 17 32 18Est ▼ 51 12 47 14 49 8 29 7 37 18 39 19Centre-Est ▼ 55 6 51 7 54 3 31 9 32 18 34 16Méditerranée ▼ 59 10 57 10 64 2 27 6 34 17 45 19Sud-Ouest ▼ 43 9 42 9 61 8 25 10 29 20 36 16Ouest ▲ 56 6 53 6 55 8 28 9 35 20 37 15Bassin Parisien ▼ 55 5 53 5 60 6 33 9 31 20 36 16Île-de-France ▼ 60 10 60 10 47 11 37 7 34 14 37 12GERMANYSchleswig-Holstein ▲ 37 19 40 5 12 22 18 26 26 21Niedersachsen ▼ 35 17 41 7 10 23 17 28 25 22Bremen ▲ 40 12 44 5 19 14 19 19 29 16Hamburg ▲ 42 13 46 9 19 12 21 20 31 15Nordrhein-Westfalen ▲ 39 15 42 5 18 16 27 20 33 13Saarland ▲ 47 11 41 7 28 14 35 17 38 10

* As previously mentioned, NUTS 1 regional classification is used for most countries with the exception ofPortugal, Spain and Sweden, which use NUTS 2. Finland uses a special aggregation of NUTS 3 regions** The arrows next to the regions indicate an increase or decrease in Business Confidence compared to last year (see general methodology).*** Data is not available for some countries/regions, which explains blanks in the table.

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

202001

Expectations for 2001*

EU Regions** Turnover

☺☺☺☺ % ####

domestic sales

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Export

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Employment

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Investment

☺☺☺☺ % ####

BusinessConfidence☺☺☺☺ % ####

Rheinland-Pfalz ▲ 48 9 19 17 22 24 32 16Hessen ▼ 41 10 37 3 14 16 19 21 30 15Baden-Württemberg ▲ 50 4 24 13 23 22 34 11Bayern ▲ 39 18 46 7 20 13 29 22 27 8Berlin ▲ 37 20 49 8 22 17 33 16 36 18Mecklenburg-Vorpommern▼ 25 28 33 9 12 28 14 48 21 27Brandenburg ▼ 17 31 35 8 10 30 11 39 15 34Sachsen-Anhalt ▼ 18 38 28 4 8 23 12 35 15 36Sachsen ▲ 29 24 38 11 16 20 17 40 16 27Thüringen ▲ 18 22 35 6 12 19 19 31 22 22GREECECountry 65 7 61 7 62 9 30 9 45 6 67 5HUNGARYCentral Hungary 32 34 31 32 32 30 16 10 44 20 18 18Central Transdanubia 47 16 46 16 41 16 20 9 44 17 23 11Western Transdanubia 47 21 43 23 47 23 14 8 44 26 26 11Southern Transdanubia 38 23 39 23 43 15 16 12 38 29 27 15Northern Hungary 45 21 38 25 35 22 21 21 42 28 26 10Northern Great Plain 53 14 50 12 58 14 25 13 54 17 20 16Southern Great Plain 33 22 29 22 36 3 12 9 32 27 20 16ITALYNorth West 46 7 46 6 36 7 26 8 30 6 67 15North East 39 11 39 11 31 0 11 6 30 8 58 18Lombardia 44 8 42 7 67 8 17 2 31 10 68 13Emilia & Romagna 39 6 39 5 44 0 22 3 36 2 64 10Center 43 9 42 9 50 8 19 7 31 7 69 13Lazio 39 14 38 14 63 9 21 10 31 7 64 17Abruzzo & Molise 51 11 51 11 40 0 21 7 42 6 66 10Campania 33 16 33 16 50 0 18 10 39 8 54 24South 41 15 40 15 67 0 26 8 41 8 64 19Sicilia & Sardegna 51 15 51 16 44 11 26 10 38 5 68 17LUXEMBOURGCountry ▼ 43 6 41 7 39 9 26 6 34 12 41 9MALTACountry 47 15 42 14 44 11 27 11 43 9 40 15THE NETHERLANDSNorth ▲ 49 5 61 6 29 8 32 19 43 10East ▲ 52 4 51 7 30 7 32 20 41 10South ▲ 51 4 50 6 33 8 32 20 41 10West ▲ 54 6 44 11 38 7 32 18 42 11PORTUGALNorte 62 3 51 8 55 4 22 17 43 12 38 10Centro 63 6 60 8 64 5 21 17 40 19 43 8Lisboa e Vale do Tejo 68 6 62 7 49 6 33 13 49 13 38 14Alentejo 45 16 41 17 49 8 23 10 36 16 34 13Algarve 53 6 49 6 49 10 28 9 48 10 44 5Açores 60 5 56 6 46 6 32 2 53 12 46 5Madeira 52 8 52 11 33 8 31 7 48 11 43 9ROMANIACountry 87 2 78 4 72 10 45 17 79 4 79 6SLOVENIACentral 87 3 82 3 72 0 30 18 52 11 76 4Non Central 85 3 52 7 89 2 27 37 55 14 70 2

* As previously mentioned, NUTS 1 regional classification is used for most countries with the exception ofPortugal, Spain and Sweden, which use NUTS 2. Finland uses a special aggregation of NUTS 3 regions** The arrows next to the regions indicate an increase or decrease in Business Confidence compared to last year (see general methodology).

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

212001

Expectations for 2001*EU Regions** Turnover

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Domesticsales

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Export

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Employment

☺☺☺☺ % ####

Investment

☺☺☺☺ % ####

BusinessConfidence☺☺☺☺ % ####

SPAINAndalucía ▼ 74 4 71 3 63 6 41 9 50 11 41 18Aragón ▼ 68 7 67 7 56 7 41 9 48 14 17 13Asturias ▼ 79 1 74 4 77 5 35 14 51 7 30 17Baleares ▼ 71 4 65 4 73 4 57 4 70 11 12 8Canarias ▼ 49 13 45 13 40 12 34 15 38 16 29 23Cantabria ▲ 56 7 50 5 43 12 15 7 40 16 35 11Castilla-la Mancha ▲ 57 2 53 3 78 3 31 8 42 9 37 17Castilla y León ▼ 49 3 48 4 39 2 30 21 35 6 36 17Cataluña ▲ 77 2 71 3 55 3 51 5 61 7 44 10C. Valenciana ▼ 59 6 51 9 69 4 30 4 40 11 34 14Extremadura ▼ 78 4 73 4 65 2 62 4 54 9 35 10Galicia ▼ 74 3 72 3 69 2 54 7 48 5 35 30Madrid ▼ 74 4 66 4 62 5 59 7 53 12 28 7Murcia ▼ 62 5 58 5 72 0 51 3 59 13 40 9Navarra -- 75 3 73 3 77 4 28 6 27 12 35 13País Vasco ▼ 68 4 60 6 61 6 49 8 54 15 23 20La Rioja ▼ 44 8 37 8 76 2 31 6 37 13 23 16SWEDENÖvre Norrland ▼ 61 3 57 3 46 10 30 4 40 8 69 1Mellersta Norrland ▲ 64 9 56 9 54 6 32 8 34 11 75 4

Stockholm ▲ 69 4 62 4 47 9 45 8 37 11 80 2Norra Mellansverige ▼ 54 2 52 3 47 0 36 22 30 21 64 6Östra Mellansverige ▼ 66 7 58 6 54 9 34 8 43 8 75 4UNITED KINGDOMScotland ▼ 36 26 22 35 33 34 14 19 17 19 31 36North East ▲ 67 10 44 24 31 37 33 11 25 10 60 15North West ▼ 57 11 30 22 30 26 25 15 27 10 47 18Yorkshire & Humberside ▼ 63 8 36 19 21 23 26 8 24 15 51 17East Midlands ▼ 65 9 36 21 24 20 27 9 31 8 54 15West Midlands ▼ 56 16 34 24 24 31 26 13 26 13 46 22Wales ▼ 59 19 34 19 34 28 28 11 29 11 42 21Northern Ireland ▼ 61 14 40 17 35 19 33 11 37 8 44 23East Anglia ▼ 57 11 34 19 27 27 26 9 26 8 46 21South West 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0South East -- 71 5 40 15 25 8 30 9 39 8 58 13London 77 10 46 14 52 13 46 8 34 8 65 9

Survey Average 52 12 50 12 48 9 27 12 33 17 43 16EU average 52 12 49 12 48 9 27 12 32 17 42 16

* As previously mentioned, NUTS 1 regional classification is used for most countries with the exception ofPortugal, Spain and Sweden, which use NUTS 2. Finland uses a special aggregation of NUTS 3 regions** The arrows next to the regions indicate an increase or decrease in Business Confidence compared to last year (see general methodology).

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

222001

TOTAL TURNOVER EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001 (part one)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Romania

Central (SLO)

North (Fin)

Non-Central (SLO)

Cyprus

Asturias (E)

Helsinki (Fin)

Cataluña (E)

Czech Republic

Extremadura (E)

Navarra (E)

Galicia (E)

Denmark

Andalucia (E)

Madrid (E)

West (Fin)

Baleares (E)

London (UK)

Greece

South East (UK)

Stockholm (S)

Pais Vasco (E)

North Central (BG)

Lisboa e Vale do Tejo (P)

Aragón (E)

Östra Mellansverige (S)

Norte (P)

Övre Norrland (S)

Centro (P)

North East (UK)

Murcia (E)

East Midlands (UK)

Mellersta Norrland(S)

Castilla-La Mancha (E)

Yorkshire & Humberside (UK)

Açores (P)

C. Valenciana (E)

North East (BG)

South West (BG)

South Central (BG)

East (Fin)

Norra Mellansverige (S)

Nord (F)

Ouest (F)

Bassin Parisien (F)

Île-de-France (F)

South East (BG)

Centre-Est (F)

Méditerranée (F)

Cantabria (E)

East (NL)

West (NL)

Increase Constant Decrease

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

232001

TOTAL TURNOVER EXPECTATION FOR 2001 (part two)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

W est (A)

South (NL)

Algarve. (P)

Northern Ireland (UK)

North W est (UK)

East Anglia (UK)

Castilla y León (E)

North (NL)

M adeira (P)

South (A)

W est M idlands (UK)

W ales (UK)

Abruzzo & M olise (I)

North Great Plain (H)

EU 13 average

Est (F)

North W est (I)

Luxembourg

Saarland (D)

Canarias (E)

La Rioja (E)

Sicilia & Sardegna (I)

North East (I)

East (A)

Center (I)

Sud-Ouest (F)

Emilia & Romagna (I)

M alta

Hessen (D)

Central Transdanubia (H)

Hamburg (D)

Alentejo (P)

Bremen (D)

Lombardia (I)

W est Transdanubia (H)

Lazio (I)

South (I)

North W est(BG)

Nordrhein-W estfalen (D)

North Hungary (H)

Bayern (D)

Schleswig-Holstein (D)

Niedersachsen (D)

Campania (I)

Berlin (D)

South Transdanubia (H)

South Great Plain (H)

Scotland (UK)

Sachsen (D)

Central Hungary (H)

M ecklenburg-Vorpommern. (D)

Thüringen (D)

Brandenburg (D)

Sachsen-Anhalt (D)


EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

242001

DOMESTIC SALES EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001 (part one)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Central (SLO)

Cyprus

Romania

Helsinki (Fin)

Asturias (E)

Navarra (E)

Extremadura (E)

Galicia (E)

Andalucia (E)

Cataluña (E)

North (Fin)

Greece

M adrid (E)

Baleares (E)

Aragón (E)

Czech Republic

Stockholm (S)

Denmark


Övre Norrland (S)

Pais Vasco (E)

M urcia (E)

Östra M ellansverige (S)

W est (Fin)

Centro (P)

Île-de-France (F)

Castilla-La M ancha (E)

Açores (P)

Norra M ellansverige (S)

North Central (BG)

Bassin Parisien (F)

M ellersta Norrland(S)

Nord (F)

M éditerranée (F)

Ouest (F)

South Central (BG)

Cantabria (E)

Non-Central (SLO)

Centre-Est (F)


Norte (P)

Algarve (P)

South W est (BG)

C. Valenciana (E)

East (Fin)

M adeira (P)


EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

252001

DOMESTIC SALES EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001 (part two)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Abruzzo & Molise (I)

North West (I)

North East (BG)


South (A)

EU 13 Average

West (A)


North East (I)

South East (BG)

Luxembourg


Est (F)

Sud-Ouest (F)

Center (I)

Canarias (E)

London (UK)


La Rioja (E)

Malta

Lombardia (I)

East (A)

South East (UK)

South (I)

Lazio (I)

Alentejo (P)


West Transdanubia (H)

North East (UK)

Campania (I)



East Anglia (UK)

Wales (UK)

East Midlands (UK)

North Hungary (H)

North West(BG)

West Midlands (UK)

North West (UK)


Central Hungary (H)

Scotland (UK)


EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

262001

EXPORT SALES EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001 (part one)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Non-Central (SLO)

North (Fin)

North Central (BG)

Castilla-La Mancha (E)

La Rioja (E)

Navarra (E)

Asturias (E)

Murcia (E)

Central (SLO)

Baleares (E)

Galicia (E)

South (I)

Helsinki (Fin)

C. Valenciana (E)

West (Fin)

Extremadura (E)

Méditerranée (F)

Romania

Greece

East (Fin)

Denmark

Czech Republic

North East (I)

Centro (P)

Andalucia (E)

Madrid (E)

North East (BG)

Pais Vasco (E)

North (NL)

Lazio (I)

Bassin Parisien (F)

South (A)

East (A)

Sud-Ouest (F)

Cataluña (E)

Norte (P)

West (A)

Centre-Est (F)

Campania (I)

Aragón (E)

Mellersta Norrland(S)

Norra Mellansverige (S)

Nord (F)

Ouest (F)

Baden-Württemberg (D)

Cyprus

Östra Mellansverige (S)



East (NL)

South (NL)


Center (I)


EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

272001

EXPORT SALES EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001 (part two)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

South W est (BG)

Est (F)

Berlin (D)

Alentejo (P)

South Central (BG)


Açores (P)

Algarve (P)

Bremen (D)

Rheinland-Pfalz (D)

Bayern (D)

London (UK)

EU 13 Average

Stockholm (S)

Hamburg (D)



Övre Norrland (S)

Île-de-France (F)


Niedersachsen (D)

Saarland (D)

Hessen (D)


W est (NL)


M alta

Lombardia (I)

Cantabria (E)

Luxembourg

Thüringen (D)

North W est (I)

Canarias (E)


Brandenburg (D)

Sachsen (D)

M adeira (P)



Sachsen-Anhalt (D)


South East (BG)

South East (UK)


North Hungary (H)

W ales (UK)

East M idlands (UK)

North W est (UK)

North W est(BG)

Central Hungary (H)

East Anglia (UK)

Scotland (UK)


North East (UK)



EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

282001

EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001 (part one)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Extremadura (E)

Cyprus

Baleares (E)

M adrid (E)

M urcia (E)

Galicia (E)

Cataluña (E)

Pais Vasco (E)

London (UK)

Stockholm (S)

Andalucia (E)

Aragón (E)

North Central (BG)

Helsinki (Fin)

W est (NL)

Île-de-France (F)

Açores (P)

Romania

Övre Norrland (S)


C. Valenciana (E)

Denmark

La Rioja (E)

W est (Fin)

South (NL)


Bassin Parisien (F)

Greece

South East (BG)

M adeira (P)

East (NL)


North East (BG)

Czech Republic

North East (UK)

Est (F)

Centre-Est (F)

Navarra (E)


South East (UK)

Nord (F)

M éditerranée (F)

Asturias (E)

North (NL)


Luxembourg

Algarve (P)

Ouest (F)

Canarias (E)


South (I)

North W est (I)

East M idlands (UK)


South Central (BG)

W ales (UK)


EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

292001

EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATION FOR 2001 (part two)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

East Anglia (UK)


M alta

EU 13 Average

North W est(BG)

North East (I)

South (A)

Sud-Ouest (F)

North (Fin)


Saarland (D)

South W est (BG)



Alentejo (P)

W est (A)

Center (I)

Central (SLO)


Lazio (I)

Baden-W ürttemberg (D)

North W est (UK)


East (Fin)


Campania (I)

Cantabria (E)

East (A)

Hamburg (D)

Bayern (D)

Central Hungary (H)

Norte (P)


Lombardia (I)

Bremen (D)

Berlin (D)

Centro (P)




Rheinland-Pfalz (D)

North Hungary (H)

Hessen (D)

Sachsen (D)

Scotland (UK)

Thüringen (D)


Non-Central (SLO)

Niedersachsen (D)

Sachsen-Anhalt (D)


Brandenburg (D)


EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

302001

INVESTMENT EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001 (part one)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Romania

Cyprus

Baleares (E)

North Central (BG)

Cataluña (E)

Greece

M urcia (E)

Extremadura (E)

Asturias (E)

Galicia (E)

Czech Republic

North East (BG)

Açores (P)

M adrid (E)

Central (SLO)

Non-Central (SLO)

South W est (BG)

Andalucia (E)

Pais Vasco (E)

Algarve (P)


M adeira (P)





Aragón (E)

M alta



South (I)

South East (BG)

Övre Norrland (S)

North (Fin)

Norte (P)

South East (UK)

Campania (I)

South Central (BG)


C. Valenciana (E)


North W est(BG)


London (UK)

Stockholm (S)

Cantabria (E)

La Rioja (E)

Lazio (I)

Center (I)

North W est (I)

Central Hungary (H)

East M idlands (UK)


Canarias (E)

Denmark

Lombardia (I)

Luxembourg


EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

312001

INVESTMENT EXPECTATIONS FOR 2001 (part two)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Centro (P)

North East (I)

Alentejo (P)

Île-de-France (F)

Est (F)

East Anglia (UK)

Saarland (D)

W ales (UK)


M éditerranée (F)

Berlin (D)

Helsinki (Fin)

North W est (UK)

W est (Fin)

EU 13 Average

Ouest (F)

Navarra (E)

North East (UK)

North Hungary (H)

East (Fin)

Centre-Est (F)

W est (NL)


North (NL)

East (NL)

South (NL)

Bassin Parisien (F)

Nord (F)



Sud-Ouest (F)


W est (A)


Bayern (D)


South (A)

Hamburg (D)


Bremen (D)

Scotland (UK)

Rheinland-Pfalz (D)

Hessen (D)

East (A)


Niedersachsen (D)

Thüringen (D)

Sachsen-Anhalt (D)

Sachsen (D)

Brandenburg (D)



EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

322001

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE FOR 2001 (part one)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Stockholm (S)

Cyprus

Romania

Central (SLO)



Greece

Övre Norrland (S)

Non-Central (SLO)

Czech Republic


London (UK)

Center (I)


North East (I)


North W est (I)


Lazio (I)

South East (UK)

South (I)

North East (UK)

North Central (BG)

South East (BG)

Lombardia (I)

Açores (P)

Algarve (P)

North East (BG)

East M idlands (UK)

South W est (BG)

Centro (P)

South Central (BG)

Cataluña (E)

M adeira (P)


North (NL)

South (NL)

East (NL)

Luxembourg

W est (NL)

M urcia (E)

Campania (I)

North W est (UK)

Norte (P)

Saarland (D)

EU 13 Average

M éditerranée (F)

Île-de-France (F)

Extremadura (E)

M alta

East Anglia (UK)

Cantabria (E)





EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

332001

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE FOR 2001 (part two)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Andalucia (E)

Ouest (F)

Navarra (E)

Alentejo (P)

M adrid (E)


W ales (UK)

Est (F)

Sud-Ouest (F)

Bassin Parisien (F)



C. Valenciana (E)

Bayern (D)


North W est(BG)

Centre-Est (F)

Berlin (D)

Denmark

North Hungary (H)

Hamburg (D)

Rheinland-Pfalz (D)

Hessen (D)


Nord (F)

Bremen (D)

Asturias (E)


Helsinki (Fin)


La Rioja (E)

Canarias (E)


Galicia (E)


East (Fin)

Baleares (E)

Aragón (E)


Niedersachsen (D)

Pais Vasco (E)

W est (Fin)

Central Hungary (H)

Thüringen (D)

North (Fin)

Scotland (UK)


South (A)

W est (A)

Sachsen (D)

East (A)

Brandenburg (D)

Sachsen-Anhalt (D)


EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

342001

3.2 Focus on…

3.2.1. …Major increases and decreases in regional expectations

This paragraph shows the 10 regions which have increased most in optimism compared tothe previous year and the 10 regions which have decreased most in optimism. Thiscomparison was made only for countries which participated to last year�s survey.

% Change*Germany Berlin 11%Denmark Denmark 9%Germany Baden-Württemberg 8%France Ouest 7%Spain Cataluña 6%Germany Hamburg 6%Sweden Stockholm 6%Germany Saarland 4%Germany Nordrhein-Westfalen 4%Sweden Mellersta Norrland 4%

% ChangeSpain Andalucia -12%Austria East -12%Spain Madrid -13%Finland North -13%Austria West -15%Finland West -15%Spain Galicia -17%Spain Pais Vasco -17%United Kingdom Northern Ireland -19%Spain Canarias -22%

Business ConfidenceMajor Increases

Major Decreases

*The change in % compared to last year (see general methodology)

% Change*United Kingdom North East 12%Germany Berlin 12%Austria South 9%Denmark Denmark 8%Germany Bayern 7%Spain Navarra 6%France Bassin Parisien 6%Germany Nordrhein-Westfalen 6%Spain Asturias 5%Spain Baleares 5%

% ChangeFrance Sud-Ouest -7%Sweden Övre Norrland -8%Finland Helsinki -8%Finland East -9%Spain Murcia -9%Spain C. Valenciana -10%United Kingdom Northern Ireland -12%Spain Castilla y León -12%Spain Canarias -14%Sweden Östra Mellansverige -15%*The change in % compared to last year (see general methodology)

Total TurnoverMajor Increases

Major Decreases

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

352001

% Change*Spain Aragón 37%Spain La Rioja 26%Spain Asturias 23%Austria South 18%Spain Castilla-La Mancha 15%Denmark Denmark 15%Germany Berlin 15%Germany Bayern 13%Austria West 11%United Kingdom South East 10%

% ChangeFinland Helsinki -4%Spain Galicia -6%Sweden Stockholm -6%Germany Sachsen -8%Italy North West -12%Sweden Östra Mellansverige -14%Spain Cantabria -14%Sweden Övre Norrland -14%France Île-de-France -15%Italy Campania -25%

Export SalesMajor Increases

Major Decreases


% Change*Denmark Denmark 12%Spain Baleares 9%Spain Navarra 7%Austria South 7%Finland North 6%France Bassin Parisien 5%Sweden Stockholm 5%France Méditerranée 5%Spain Andalucia 4%United Kingdom North East 4%

% ChangeFinland West -6%Spain Pais Vasco -7%Spain Galicia -7%United Kingdom Northern Ireland -7%Spain Murcia -8%Finland East -8%Sweden Östra Mellansverige -11%Spain C. Valenciana -11%Spain Castilla y León -12%Spain Canarias -16%

Domestic SalesMajor Increases

Major Decreases


EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

362001

% Change*Spain Asturias 21%Germany Berlin 18%Germany Saarland 12%Spain Baleares 10%Germany Schleswig-Holstein 8%The Netherlands East 8%Finland East 7%The Netherlands West 7%Finland North 7%Spain Cataluña 6%

% ChangeFrance Bassin Parisien -6%Germany Brandenburg -6%Spain Extremadura -8%Spain Murcia -8%Finland Helsinki -8%Spain C. Valenciana -9%Spain Aragón -9%Spain Cantabria -11%Spain Navarra -13%Spain Canarias -15%

InvestmentMajor Increases

Major Decreases


% Change*Germany Saarland 20%Germany Berlin 18%Spain Galicia 13%Spain Madrid 12%Spain Baleares 11%Germany Hamburg 9%Spain Castilla y León 9%Austria East 8%Spain Castilla-La Mancha 8%Germany Baden-Württemberg 8%

% ChangeFrance Ouest -2%Spain Murcia -3%Sweden Övre Norrland -3%France Méditerranée -4%Spain Cantabria -4%Sweden Östra Mellansverige -5%United Kingdom Northern Ireland -6%Spain C. Valenciana -7%Finland East -9%Spain Canarias -12%

Major Decreases

*The change in % compared to last year(see general methodology)

EmploymentMajor Increases

EUROPEAN ANALYSIS

37

106 participating regions in the · eurochambres economic survey is a qualitative regional survey...

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