10/29/11 - stock market trends & observations – weekly update
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Stock Market Trends Weekly Update 10/29/11Posted October 29, 2011 by Bob
Categories: W E E K L Y U P D A T E
WEEKLY UPDAT E FOLLOWS T HE BREAK
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Recent Posts
Stock Market Trends Weekly
Update 10/29/11
Identifying Bear Market
Bottoms & New Bull Markets
by Paul Desmond
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I draw the trend lines and wave co unts on a daily basis (sometimes
more often).
When a market mov e has bee n going in one direc tion for a lengthy
period of time, you will only find the trend lines and wave c ounts
on charts with longer time frames. This gives perspective to the
lines and counts. Perspective was a favorite o f Edson Gould.
I restrict my trend lines and wave co unts to only a few charts,
TSX, DJI, SOX and COMPQ. The other charts on the page are
usually for co nfirmation of the trend and wave structure.
Page 1 Index es With 1 Minute Bars
Page 2 Index es With 5 Minute Bars
Page 3 Index es With 15 Minute Bars
Page 4 Index es With 30 Minute Bars
Page 5 Index es With 60 Minute Bars
Page 6 Index es With Daily Bars (candlestic ks last 13 months)
Page 7 Indexes With Daily Bars (since Nov ember 20 08)
Page 8 Index es With Weekly Bars
Page 9 Index es With Monthly Bars
Pages 10 through 13 are indicators. The indicators are used to
simply look for some ty pe ofleading action before a turn or
confirming action of the wave count. Page 10 is a look every day
page. The other indicator pages are less frequently v isited.
Page 14 through 26 are sector ETFs. They represent most of the
active sector ETFs and are always a good bet when looking for
something that is breaking in a new direction.
Page 27 through 39 are growth stocks. These are stocks that have
risen in price since 1 990. One qualification is that they must not
Utilities by Edson Gould
Swing Principle by
Edson Gould
Speed Lines by Edson Gould
Archives
October 2011 (18)
September 2011 (17)
August 2011 (32)
July 2011 (17)
June 2011 (10)
Categories
DAILY UPDATE (62)
EDSON GOULD (12)
GLOSSARY (1)
SELL/BUY ACTION UPDATE
(10)
WEEKLY UPDATE (16)
October 2011M T W T F S S
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
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be severely damaged in a bear market so they cant rise to
significant new highs in the following bull market.
The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 y ears
and weekly prices since 1990. This gives a good perspective of
how they have be haved in the immediate past (daily c harts) and
how they behaved during good and bad times (weekly charts).
WAVE COUNT SSIMPLIFIED
My wave counts are not Elliott Wave! Its different, simple and
functions w ithout a maze of exclusions.
T here are 3 peaks (or valleys) to a com pleted wave cou nt.
A rev ersal of trend takes place after a completed wave count.
Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps (or dips) on a chart .
. . Other times, not so easy .
In a downtrend the same rules apply ex cept y ou are co unting 3
dips instead of 3 bumps.
Each step must stay c onfined to a channel . Laying a pen or
pencil on the c hart will help y ou v isualize the channel.
As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the ov erall
current trend will also be c onfined to a larger channel.
When the m arket breaks a channel (regardless of the
perceivedwave cou nt), the current step has beenterminated. (Make sure yo ur channel was correct b efore calling
a termination).
The correction following the second step is larger than the
correc tion that followed the first step. Obv iously the correc tion
following the third step will be larger than the preceding two
corrections.
-
Sep
31
Wall Street Quotes
The essence of investment
management is the
management of risks, not the
management of returns. Well
managed portfolios start with
this precept.
Benjamin Graham
The time of maximum
pessimism is the best time to
buy and the time of maximum
optimism is the best time to
sell.John Templeton
Buy on the cannons,
sell on the trumpets.
Old French Proverb
Rule #1: Never lose money.
Rule #2: Never forget rule #1
Warren Buffett
The four most dangerous
words in investing are
"This time it's different".
John Templeton
"This time it's different" was
prevalent during the bubble
of 2000. In 1929 it was called
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.
call this an ex tension. When this happens (1) the trend is still
intact, (2) the channel will widened and (3) instead of a total of
3 steps, there will be 5 steps.
Sometimes I will use the terms step and wave interchangeably .
Reading the glossary helps in the understanding of this blog.
Glossary Link
ABBREVIATIONS
DJI = Dow Jones Industr ials
DJT = Dow Jones Transportat ions
SPX = SP 50 0
ES = SP 500 Futures
COMPQ = Nasdaq Composite Index
TSX = Toro nto Stock Exchange (Canadian blue chips)SOX = Semico nducto rs
XLY = Consumer
****************************************************************
WEEKLY UPDAT E
CLI CK ON CHART S TO ENLA RGE
Short T erm
Oct 4, 2011 T o Present
Wave Cou nt Fuzzy But Sm all Step 3 Up Appears Likely
Resistance Was Likely En cou ntered At Friday Highs
Possible Short T erm Correction Ah ead
SHORT T ERM COMMENT S
"New Economics".
Bob
History always repeats, only
the details change.
Edson Gould
If you have trouble imagining
a 20% loss in the stockmarket, you shouldn't be in
stocks.
John (Jack) Bogle
Stock are bought on
expectations, not facts.
Gerald Loeb
Emotions are your worst
enemy in the stock market.Don Hays
P/E ratio The percentage of
investors wetting their pants
as the market keeps
crashing.
Anonymous
Herd Mentality
Men, it has been well said,think in herds it will be seen
that they go mad in herds,
while they only recover their
senses slowly, and one by
one.
Extraordinary Popular
Delusions and the Madness of
Crowds
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1 0-29-11 DJI - 60 Min
Herd Mentality
Cases such as Tulipomania in
1624 when Tulip bulbs
traded at a higher price than
gold sugges t the existence
of what I would dub
"Mackay's Law of Mass
Action:" when it comes to theeffect of social behavior on
the intelligence of individuals,
1+1 is often less than 2, and
sometimes considerably less
than 0.
Extraordinary Popular
Delusions and the Madness of
Crowds
I made money by selling too
soon.
Bernard Baruch
If all you have is a hammer,
everything looks like a nail.
Bernard Baruch
The main purpose of the
stock market is to make fools
of as many people as
possible.
Bernard Baruch
The hardest part of a bull
market is staying on.
A bubble is a bull market in
which you don't have a
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position.
A buy and hold strategy is a
short term trade that went
wrong.
October, this is one of the
peculiarly dangerous months
to speculate in stocks. Theothers are July, January,
September, April, November,
May, June, December, August
and February.
Mark Twain
Economists have predicted 14
of the last 3 recessions.
Market Correction The dayafter you buy stocks.
In 2008 stocks were a good
buy . . . . . Goodbye
Mercedes, goodbye yacht,
goodbye vacation home,
goodbye . . .
Markets can remain irrational
longer than you can remainsolvent.
John Maynard Keynes
Money talks, but all mine ever
says is "goodbye"
Don't gamble. Take all of your
savings and buy some good
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stock and hold it until it goes
up, then sell it. If it don't go
up, don't buy it.
Will Rogers
Return of principal is more
important than the return on
principal.
Hope is your worst enemy in
the market.
Don't catch a falling knife.
Spend at least as much time
researching a stock as you
would choosing a refrigerator.
Peter Lynch
When you realize that you
are riding a dead horse the
best strategy is to dismount.
Sioux Indian Proverb
Dont ever make the mistake
of telling the market it is
wrong.
James Dines
Wall Street never changes,
the pockets change, the
suckers change, the stocks
change, but Wall Street never
changes, because human
nature never changes.
Jesse Livermore
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Let Wall Street have a
nightmare and the whole
country has to help get them
back in bed again
Will Rogers
Bulls makes money, bears
makes money, pigs get
slaughtered.My Grandfather
Never buy a stock that won't
go up in a bull market. Never
sell a stock that won't go
down in a bear market.
Wall Street is a street with a
river at one end and a
graveyard at the other.
Never check stock prices on a
Friday, it could spoil your
weekend.
Nobody is more bearish than
a sold out bull.
The public is right during the
trends but wrong at bothends.
Humphrey Neill
Those who can, do.
Those who cant, teach.
Those who cant teach, work
for the government.
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Never sell a dull market short.
I sell euphoria and buy
panic.
The way he determines that
is to wait until prices start
gapping in the charts.
Gapping on the upside is
euphoria, while gapping onthe downside is panic.
Jimmy Rogers courtesy of Jeff
Saut
"Cut your losses and let your
profits run."
Don't marry a stock. Every
stock must be sold.
Often times WHEN you take a
position can be more
important than WHAT you
take a position in.
Bob
About This Blog
Observations of Stock Market
Trends uses several
proprietary technical
indicators discovered by the
author. The object of this blog
is to notify you (preferably in
advance) of the important
tops and bottoms in the stock
market. We know that's
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impossible, but nevertheless,
it's attempted in this blog.
"Observations of Stock
Market Trends" is published
on an irregular schedule but a
daily update is likely when we
are near a stock market
inflection point.
If you find the blog
interesting, please become a
follower by entering your
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Disclosure
The content on this blog is
meant to be entertaining
information and should not be
construed as investmentadvice.
No statement by the blog's
author should be interpreted
as a recommendation to buy
or sell any security, financial
instrument, or to participate
in a trading or investment
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1 0-29 -1 1 Trend Lines & Wav e Counts
The above charts (with trend lines and wave counts) can be found at page
4 and 5 on my chart link.
I labeled step 3 down (February to October) as completed in my charts
well before I commented on that ev ent in this blog. Thats a good reason
to chec k the charts frequently.
Make sure and stay up to date by watching the current c ounts and
trend lines in my c hart link. I am constantly fiddling with the lines and
counts try ing to find the best fit. This blog requires work while a chart
update only take a minute or two. Interpretation of the charts can take
the longest.
Tim Haye s, chief investment strategist of the widely ready institutional
service , Ned Davis Research, said last week that he thought the market
could surpass the 2007 all-time market highs. This has been a
contention of mine for almost 1 0 y ears, wide swinging markets. See
megaphone formation under Very Long Term Comments below. Other
than my own, I hav e not heard a meaningful prediction o f bettering the
2007 highs until this week. Tim Hay es also said that he thought we were
in an ongoing bear market that began in 2000. This corresponds ex actly
strategy.
Any investment decision by
anyone that results in losses
or gains based on information
from this blog is not the
responsibility of the blog's
author.
The blog's author will make
statements about certain
investment vehicles and
strategies, but It's simply the
author expressing his
opinion, or action, regarding
his own investments. These
opinions are never to be
construed as investment
advice.
About Me
With 55 years of studying and
investing in the stock market,
I am sharing these
experiences and knowledge
by writing a stock market
blog. This blog relies onseveral unique and
proprietary indicators.
I have been correct at some
of the biggest market turns in
the last 40 years. I was short
for most of 1973 1974,
reversed course and became
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with my long term thoughts. As I hav e said in Very Long Term
Comments, I believe the eventual bottom will occur in 2018 (cy clical
projection) but anytime after 2015 seems possible.
Tim Haye s also thought we could ex ceed the May 20 11 highs before year
end. That would be nice and if it happens, it would certainly mark the
bottom on October 4th as the b eginning of large step 3 (counting from
March 2009). Large step 3 could match or exceed the 2007 highs.Lotsa profits to be made if that happens. Will you be on board????
Currently we c ould be faced with a short term correc tion beginning on
November 1 st. Institutions will be window dressing through the 31st.
The most desirable outc ome is for this overbo ught market to stay
ov erbought. This is the best sign to the kickoff to a big market surge.
****************************************************************
Interm ediate Term
3 Steps Down Are Com plete (February 20 11 T o October 4,
2011)
October 4, 2011 to Present
Step 1 Up Is Underway
before Christmas 1974. I was
also short for most of the first
half of 1982 but became a
buyer on August 4, 1982. This
was five days before the
August 9, 1982 blast off on
the historic bull market run of
the 1980s and 1990s. In
1999 I began tolling the bell
on the stock market knowing
that the end was near (no
one listened). In March 2003,
prior to the beginning of the
Iraq war I became very
bullish when it was obvious
that there was no reason to
own stocks and we had also
achieved a double bottom.Shortly after the October
2007 peak I became a seller
and bear. Days prior to the
March 2009 bottom, I bought
stocks in anticipation of a
very good rally that turned
into a big bull run. In the later
stages of the February May
2011 topping process, Ibegan warning of an
important market correction.
One man was responsible for
my education, Edson Gould,
the greatest technician that
ever lived.
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1 0-2 1 -11 INTERMEDIATE TERM
After reading many of the
books on stock market
technical analysis, I found
that all of these methods had
high failure rates. I searched
for a formula that worked
consistently and in 1973 I
subscribed to Edson Gould's
"Findings & Forecasts". Here Istruck gold with the master
technician of the 20th
century. Extending his
methods I discovered several
proprietary indicators that I
use today.
If you find my observations of
interest please add your
email address to the section,
"Email Subscription".
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35spam comments
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1 0-2 1 -11 INTERMEDIATE TERM ($TSX )
****************************************************************
Long T erm
Uptrend
Mar 2009 To Present
Step 2 Up (of 3) Com pleted
Has Step 3 Begun ???
From the bottom in March 200 9
Large step one up ended in May 2010
Large step two up ended in May 2011.
Exceeding the May 2011 highs will signal that Step 3 up is official
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1 0-21 -1 1 LONG TERM
****************************************************************
Very Lon g Term
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Very Lon g Term
Downtrend
Jan 2000 T o Present
Step 2 Down (of 3) Com pleted
Currently In Rally Phase From Step 2 Down
1 0-21 -1 1 VERY LONG TERM
VERY LONG T ERM COMMENT S
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We have 3 possibilities for the future.
We have entered a very wide swinging m arket
(megaphone formation) sim ilar to that of 1966 to 1974.
During that era we had three bear markets with two intervening
bull market rallies. Each bear market had a lower low than the
previous b ear. The interve ning bull market rallies saw new all
time highs before the nex t bear market began.
We also have formed a huge head and shoulders formation since
1998. If this formation is valid, the downside measurement calls
for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1,0 00.
We began a long term bull market in March 20 09. Each
subsequent min-bear market will result in higher lows than the
prior major low.
I favor the m egaphone formation as the m ost likely
scenario.
Since 2000 we have had two bear markets, 2000 to 200 3 and 2007 to
2009. Like 1966 to 197 4, the recov ery from the first bear market saw a
new all time high (2007 peak). Its possible that we may ex perience
another all time high during the present recov ery period. This would
support the megaphone formation. A failure to make new highs would
support the head and shoulders argument. In both formations theconclusion of the present recov ery would call for a third and final bear
market. An estimated time for the conclusion o f the final bear market is
approximately 20 18.
The lesser downside target of both formations is the megaphone
formation as it likely calls for a bottom 1,0 00 to 2,000 points below the
2009 low which would be around Dow 5 00 0
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2009 low, which would be around Dow 5,00 0.
In the head and shoulders formation the measurement calls for a bottom
around Dow Jones Industrials 1,0 00. This is almost an unimaginable
eve nt regarding the possible fundamentals to c reate this scenario. If this
did happen, ev ery thing that could go wrong would have to go wrong.
The reasons range from the absurd to the absurdly absurd. This scenario
is so dark that it doesnt seem possible but nev ertheless, the head andshoulders formation is there and will be waiting until we pierce the all-
time highs of October 2 007 .
Remember these are simply possible scenarios and are not embedded in
fact. Whatever the outc ome, it never hurts to be a little cautious with
some of your money . But in the worst case scenario, every thing that we
take for granted as being safe . . . . would not be safe. This is something
to never forget in the event things go v ery badly.
Hopefully we will never have to think about worst case sc enarios other
than to have a go od laugh at them presently.
****************************************************************
REAL ESTAT E
Here is a PDF report on the cy clic nature of real estate prices. Any one
interested in cy cles and real estate should find it of interest.
Real Estate Cyc les
****************************************************************
EDSON GOULD
Edson Gould, Premier Stock Market Strategist Edson
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Edson Gould, Premier Stock Market Strategist Edson
Gould had a profound influence o n the dev elopment of my
techniques and proprietary indicators. Prior to my subscr ibing to
his advisory service, I was just one of the crowd.
After 40 y ears I still have many of the publications from his
advisory servic e, Findings & Forecasts. Fearing the loss of these
hard copy reports I hav e recently created pdf files of these
reports. Now I have hard copies and computerized versions of thereports.
I hav e used a technique of his that I found in an obscure reference
in one of his reports. It was only mentioned once and never
again. I believ e that he used this tool and never told the world its
importance. Prior to my finding this Edson Gould tool, I had been
try ing unsuccessfully to find a different way to c hart the market.
When I read about his technique I knew instantly that this was
exac tly what I had been seeking. I have charted this method back
to 193 9 and found it to be very useful. On occasion I may post one
these charts.
This man was truly a legend in his own time. Its too bad that
today most people have forgotten or nev er heard of his
discov eries. Because of this I have posted some of his advice from
the 197 0s. Its my small contribution to memorializing a giant of
technical analysis.
My Most Im portant Discov ery by Edson Gould
Edson Gould Profile by MT A
Edson Gould Conc epts by William Scheinm an
Decade Cycle by Edson Gould
Decade Cyc le Update by Ned Davis
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Swing Principle by Edson Gould
Utilities by Edson Gould
Dividends by Edson Gould
Bonds by Edson Gould
Speed Lines by Edson Gould
Sentimeter by Edson Gould
****************************************************************
TRANSACTION SIGNALS
ALL A CTIONABLE SIGNALS (buy or sell) A RE ONLY FOR SHORT
TERM TIME FRAMES. These signals are not designed for
intermediate or long term time frames BUT . . . . .
After a short term buy signal, long term tax status can beachieved by a continuation of the upward trend, which causes
short term actions to morph into long term holdings.
See more details in the glossary under Tax es, Futures Contracts
and Money Management.
Glossary Link
T RANSACT ION RECORD
In this blog a warning of an impending botto m (or top) is often
issued well in advance o f the formal buy or sell date. This allows
thoughtful consideration prior to a formal action signal. To get a
sense of how this works, you should read a few days prior to a
formal buy /sell signal. I often buy/sell in my personal account
based on the early warnings.
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y g
The transaction record near stock market bottoms will show that I
am ve ry skittish and usually remain so until the new direction is
well underway .
Buy signal in October was aborted by a family illness
SELL SEPTEMBER 9, 2011
BUY AUGUST 30, 2011SELL AUGUST 30, 2011 Stopped out, re-bought quic kly
BUY AUGUST 29, 2011
SELL AUGUST 25, 2011
BUY AUGUST 23, 2011
SELL AUGUST 1, 2011
BUY JUNE 23, 20 11
****************************************************************
MISCELANEOUS
There are useful items throughout this blog. For instance, the
Wall Street Quotes can be v ery instructive. So make sure and
look all through the blog.
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Identifying Bear Market Bottoms & New Bull
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Markets by Paul Desmond
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Markets by Paul DesmondPosted October 28, 2011 by Bob
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Ident ifying Bear Market Bottom s & New Bull Markets by Paul
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Utilities by Edson GouldPosted October 28, 2011 by Bob
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Swing Principle by Edson GouldPosted October 28, 2011 by Bob
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