100818 final presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/nreca/100818/100818_final...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: 100818 Final Presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/NRECA/100818/100818_Final Presentation.pdf100818_Final Presentation Author: mraso Created Date: 8/18/2010 12:00:00 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042401/5f1015f27e708231d4476015/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Weather Normalization
How to Submit Your Questions
Step 1: Type your question
here.
Step 2: Press “Send” to submit your
question.
Weather Normalization
John Penry, CFC
![Page 2: 100818 Final Presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/NRECA/100818/100818_Final Presentation.pdf100818_Final Presentation Author: mraso Created Date: 8/18/2010 12:00:00 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042401/5f1015f27e708231d4476015/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Conducting an Analysis
• What questions are trying to get answered?
• Collecting your data
• Understanding the analytical tools available
• Using the results
What questions are you trying to answer?
• Are you trying to forecast future loads/demand?
– Different customer classes have different “baseload” demand
– Have different sensitivities to weather
• Are you trying to explain variations in kwh to forecast?
– Understand your forecast and historical data
– Did you forecast ranges of consumption?
• Are you getting a better understanding of customer trends?
– Has the “baseload” demand changed?
– Are your customers becoming more efficient?
– Cost of Service Study implications
Data Collection
• Know Thy Data- the missing 11th commandment
• Load Data
– Where is the data measured?
• Busbar, lowside meter, are you accounting for losses
– What is the interval of measurement?
• Is your data contemporaneous?
– Is your data consistent across classes?
• Weather Data
– Where is the data measured?
– What is HDD, CDD, and GDD
• What is the region’s base temperature
• Sources for weather data
http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/products/data.php
http://www.weatherdatadepot.com/
![Page 3: 100818 Final Presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/NRECA/100818/100818_Final Presentation.pdf100818_Final Presentation Author: mraso Created Date: 8/18/2010 12:00:00 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042401/5f1015f27e708231d4476015/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Calculating HDD and CDD
• The Averaging Method
CD= ((Tmax +Tmin)/2) - 65
HD= 65 - (Tmax +Tmin)/2)
CD= ((82 + 61)/2) – 65 = 71.5 – 65 = 6.5 CD
• Hourly Average Integration
CD= (Sum of all temps/# of readings) - 65
HD= 65 - (Sum of all temps/# of readings)
• Sum the CD or HD across the month or cycle to get CDD and HDD
• Problems to Consider
– Defining Average Temp, Base Temp, Other factors (wind, humidity…)
• TMY- NOAA 30-year normal weather
Spot Check your Data
• Graph it out and see if something sticks out
– Weather data is problematic
– Did the temps really reach 9999F?
– Why is the curve flat?
• Use a second source to get the correct data
• Smoothing with averages
• Sum rows or columns to check for completeness
– 8760 hours per year, 8784 in a leap year
– Months with 31 days have 744 hours
– Months with 30 days have 720 hours
– February has 672/696 hours
Actual Energy and Weather – It’s Hot in Texas
![Page 4: 100818 Final Presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/NRECA/100818/100818_Final Presentation.pdf100818_Final Presentation Author: mraso Created Date: 8/18/2010 12:00:00 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042401/5f1015f27e708231d4476015/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Actual Energy and Weather
August 2009 – Loads & Temps
Determine the Variables
• We have an independent variable (IV) that is the weather
• We have a dependent variable (DV) that is our load
– In order to analyze the impact our IV has on our DV, we must
focus on each one in isolation, then together.
– What other ways can we study the variables.
![Page 5: 100818 Final Presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/NRECA/100818/100818_Final Presentation.pdf100818_Final Presentation Author: mraso Created Date: 8/18/2010 12:00:00 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042401/5f1015f27e708231d4476015/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
August 2009 – Loads
Load Duration Curve for August
Load Duration Curves by Month for 2009
![Page 6: 100818 Final Presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/NRECA/100818/100818_Final Presentation.pdf100818_Final Presentation Author: mraso Created Date: 8/18/2010 12:00:00 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042401/5f1015f27e708231d4476015/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Daily Weather for 2009
Maximum, Minimum, and Average Temperatures
Temperature Duration Curve
Maximum, Minimum, and Average Temperatures each sorted separately
August 2009 Load Duration Curve with corresponding Temperatures in F
![Page 7: 100818 Final Presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/NRECA/100818/100818_Final Presentation.pdf100818_Final Presentation Author: mraso Created Date: 8/18/2010 12:00:00 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042401/5f1015f27e708231d4476015/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
December 2009 Load Duration Curve
December 2009 Load Duration Curve with corresponding Temperatures in F
Regression Analysis
• A simple linear regression analysis is an attempt to create a formula that uses the independent variable (IV) to predict the
expected outcome of a dependent variable (DV).
• CDD and HDD are our IV
• Consumption or load is our DV
• Multiple Regression would take into consideration the affects of humidity, wind, precipitation… other factors
• An R2 (Coefficient of determination) value of .75 or greater is generally accepted as correlated in the Electric Utility Industry.
• In MS Excel, you must download the analysis tool-pack to do Regression Analysis
![Page 8: 100818 Final Presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/NRECA/100818/100818_Final Presentation.pdf100818_Final Presentation Author: mraso Created Date: 8/18/2010 12:00:00 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042401/5f1015f27e708231d4476015/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
What is the optimal temperature to use?
MONTH KWh
Integrated Average
Temperature in F
Max Temperature
in F
Min Temperature
in F Simple
Average 55 58 60 63 65
8/1/2009 4,849,034 59.525 69.8 46.4 58.1 4.525 1.525 0 0 0
8/2/2009 5,229,503 64.625 80.6 53.6 67.1 9.625 6.625 4.625 2.125 0
8/3/2009 6,358,255 71.225 80.6 62.6 71.6 16.225 13.225 11.225 8.725 6.225
8/4/2009 6,137,910 68.75 75.2 62.6 68.9 13.75 10.75 8.75 6.25 3.75
8/26/2009 5,625,920 62.825 73.4 51.8 62.6 7.825 4.825 2.825 0.325 0
8/27/2009 5,648,806 63.35 75.2 51.8 63.5 8.35 5.35 3.35 0.85 0
8/28/2009 5,311,553 62.75 75.2 53.6 64.4 7.75 4.75 2.75 0.25 0
8/29/2009 4,480,163 57.2 66.2 48.2 57.2 2.2 0 0 0 0
8/30/2009 4,388,582 54.275 64.4 42.8 53.6 0 0 0 0 0
8/31/2009 4,856,667 54.275 68 41 54.5 0 0 0 0 0
0.84423 0.850016 0.828441 0.746282 0.647958
In Excel =RSQ($C$3:$C$33,J3:J33)
Correlation between the IV and DV
• Using excel, determine the proper temperature for you base study
– The closer the value is to 1, the more highly correlated the data
• Chart and show trend line
• Caution: Correlation is not necessarily causation!
August CDD
•Y = 140,222x + 4,679,287•Y is the predicted load, x is our HDD/CDD, and
4,679,287 is thought to be the base load.
•R2 = 0.85 so the data is highly correlated
![Page 9: 100818 Final Presentationeoplugin.commpartners.com/NRECA/100818/100818_Final Presentation.pdf100818_Final Presentation Author: mraso Created Date: 8/18/2010 12:00:00 AM](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042401/5f1015f27e708231d4476015/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
December HDD
•Y = 16,829x + 4,757,887•Y is the predicted load, x is our HDD/CDD, and
4,757,887 is thought to be the base load.
•R2 = 0.47 so the data is not very well correlated
Why might the results work for August but not for December?
• What is the mix of consumers in your area?
• What type of heating/cooling do they have?
• Are the members seasonals?
• Can you segregate the customer classes?
• It goes back to your data: gigo
How to Submit Your Questions
Step 1: Type your question
here.
Step 2: Press “Send” to submit your
question.