100511 investing in geothermal energy
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GEOTHERMAL: THE ENERGY TO CHANGE THE WORLD
INVESTING IN GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
Horst Kreuter, Colin Harvey & Orhan Mertoglu
17. May 2010, Qatar
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Introduction
Technology
Geothermal Potential Investing in Geothermal Energy
CONTENTS
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Earnings
Funding Schemes
Risk Mitigation Schemes
Research & Development
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Power and Heat (Heating & Cooling) Base Load / Around the Clock
> 90% Availability Renewable Energy
Inexhaustible Reservoir
W HY G EOTHERMAL ENERGY ?
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Non-Polluting (Climate Change) No Fuel Necessary (Independent) Supporting Home Economy (no imports) Largest Potential of all Renewables
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ENVIRONMENT
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H ISTORY
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POTENTIAL (G ERMANY)
50% OF THE POWER GENERATION OF 2006
Biogas
Liquid Biomass
Solid Biomass
Gross power generation 2006
Generation potential
Final energy potential
Photovoltaics
Wind Power
Geothermal
Potential in TWh/a
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S PATIAL D ISTRIBUTION OF G EOTHERMAL A CTIV ITY
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Conventional Geothermal: Natural Steam Reservoirs
A well produces steam or a mixture of steam and water.
Temperatures above 200C. Medium Temperature Geothermal: Hot Water Reservoirs
A well produces hot brine for power generation and
D I FFERENT RESOURCES
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ea ng.Temperatures 120C - 200C.
Low Temperature Geothermal: Hot Water Reservoirs
A well produces hot brine for heating and cooling.
Temperatures 60C - 120C.
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CONVENTIONAL G EOTHERMAL
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CONVENTIONAL G EOTHERMAL
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MEDIUM TEMPERATURE GEOTHERMAL
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Binary USA
MEDIUM TEMPERATURE GEOTHERMAL
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Binary Hawaii
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HYDROTHERMAL
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EGS
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DRILL ING
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ELECTRICITY AND
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BLUE LAGOON ICELAND
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EXAMPLES OF HEAT USE
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GEOTHERMAL ON THE WORLD SCENE
(10 GWe Operational, - Rapid Expansion Underway)
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G EOTHERMAL POTENTIAL
1000
10000
Electrical generation GWe
Direct Use GWth
E S T I M AT E D G L O B AL E L E C T R IC I T Y A N D D I R E C T U S E P O T E N TI A L
1
10
100
Installed
2008
2050
Minimum
2050
Median
2050
Maximum
Identified
technical
Inferred
theoretical
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COSTS
50MW Development US$150 to $200 million
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Cost of Recent Large (100 MWe) ConventionalGeothermal Projects in New Zealand
Kawerau: ~US $ 2.1 M / MWe Nga Awa Purua: ~US $ 2.4 M / MWe Tauhara I: ~US $ 2.4 M / MWe
COSTS (EXAMPLE )
New projects ~US $2.8 M to 3.0 MWe(in 2010)
Remark: Costs in NZ are extremely low. Expect more inother parts of the world for conventional geothermal.
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Cost of Small (3 - 5 MWe) MediumTemperature Geothermal Projects in Germany
Landau (3MW): ~US $ 10 M / MWe
New ro ects 3-5 MW : ~US $8 M to 10 M MWe
COSTS
(in 2010) Reasons:
Deep wells (3000 to 5000m)
Low Temperature (140 180C)
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FEED - I N TARIFF (EXAMPLE G ERMANY )
Basic Tariff 160 /MWhr up to 10 MW
105 /MWhr > 10 MW Bonuses
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Early Bird: 40 /MWhr Heat use: 30 /MWhr
EGS: 40 /MWhr Maximum Tariff: 270 /MWhr
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EARNINGS
Market Price (Example NZ) Geothermal is economically competitive at
the current wholesale electricity price in NZ(~ US$ 60 / MWhr)
Subsidized Price
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Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Bonus
Feed-In Tariff (Example Germany) Carbon Credits
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R ISK M IT IGATION
Exploration Risk Technical Drilling Risk
World Bank Risk Mitigation Schemes
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. .
Government Schemes (e.g. Germany, France) Private Insurance
Insurance (e.g. Munich Re, Swiss Re, Axa) Insurance Broker (e.g. Marsh)
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SUCCESS FACTORS
Sales Prices (Electricity/Heat Price) Environmental Benefit
Price Increase of Conventional Heat andElectricity generation
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Country Risks Learning Curve Electricity and Heating/Cooling
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PROJECT AVAILABILITY
Many Countries (NZ, Turkey, Germany) All Resources
Conventional
Low and Medium Temperature All Technologies
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Steam and Hydrothermal EGS All Risk Levels
Greenfield and Brownfield Portfolio !
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GOALS EFFICIENCY
RISK REDUCTION TOPICS
R&D CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
PUMPS DRILLING TECHNOLOGY
BINARY POWER PLANTS SEISMICITY
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
Horst Kreuter, Colin Harvey, Orhan Mertoglu
17. May 2009, Qatar