100311_iraqin2010
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www.csis.org |
Iraq: Meeting the Challenges
of 2010
Anthony H. Cordesman
Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
Rev: March 10, 2010
1800 K Street, NW
Suite 400
Washington, DC 20006
Phone: 1.202.775.3270
Fax: 1.202.775.3199
Email:
Web:
www.csis.org/burke/reports
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The Changing Patterns of
Violence: 2003-2009
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Weekly Security Incidents: January 3,
2004 - August 28, 2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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Iraq - IED Incident Trends – Coalition Force (U)
Incident counts based on preliminary data for June 2009
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Civilian Deaths, January 2006 - August 2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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Iraqi Security Patterns: 2004-2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .42
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Iraqi Security Patterns: 2004-2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .42
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8
Al Qa'ida in Iraq -- Winter 2006 vs.
Fall 2008
Source: General David H. Petraeus, “Iraq Update,” October 7, 2008
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Key Areas of Shi’ite Extremist Activity:
Winter 2007 vs. Fall 2008
Source: General David H. Petraeus, “Iraq Update,” October 7, 2008
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Key Insurgent, JAM, and Iranian Activity: February 2009
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Location of
Sunni and
Shi’ite
Insurgent
Capability:
August
2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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Violence at End-2009-Early 2010
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Iraqi Security Patterns: 10/21/09 to 1/13/10
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .43
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Insurgent, JAM, and Iranian Activity: Late 2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.5
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Source: Senior Iraqi official
Attacks Per Month By Type in Baghdad: 2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
IED
Mortar Landed
Car Bomb Explosion
Bicycle bomb
Assasination
Suicide Bomber
Katyusha Rocket
Body Found
hand gernade
magneticIED
RPG
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Iraqi Casualties By Type in Baghdad: 2009
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Wounded Civilian
Dead Civilian
Iraqi Security Force Wounded
Iraqi Security Force Dead
Body Found
Source: Senior Iraqi official
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Levels of National Unity
and the Election
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Sectarian, Ethnic, and Tribal Challenges
19
Sectarian Challenges
•Iraq: 60-65% Shi’a, 32-37% Sunni, 3% Christian
or Other
Ethnic Challenges
•Iraq: Arab 75-80%, Kurdish 15-20%, Turcoman,
Assyrian & Other 3%
Tribal Challenges
•Iraq: Confederations, broad area, heavily
urbanized.
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Iraqi
Ethnic
Divisions
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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Ethno-Sectarian Deaths, January 2006
- August 2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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Ethno-Sectarian Violence: 2006 -2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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Who Has Been the Target: 2007-2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .43
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Iraqi Views of Security and Travel:
July 2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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Iraq: National Unity in Late-2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .73
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Iraq-Kurd
Disputed
Territory
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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Iraq: “The Kurdish Issue”
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .67
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Iraq: The IDP Challenge
Source: Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR), Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,
(Public Law 108-106, as amended, and Public Law 95-452), October 30, 2009. Pp 80-81.
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Key Rivals in the Election
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.8
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Iraq: Forming a New Government
Action Time Frame ( in Days)
Phase Cumulative
Special needs voting and Election Day 3 3
Tally of results and preliminary results 4-7 7-10
Complaints and adjudications: Provisional Results 30 37
Appeals and Certification of Results 15 52
First Session of Council of Republic; negotiations for selection
of Speaker (maxium of 30 days after certification) 21 73
Speaker elected 30 103
Council of the Republic elects President and other members of
the Presidential Council 30 133
Prime Minister nominated (maximum of 15 days) 15 148
Prime Minister picks Council of Ministers. (maximum of 30 days) 30 178
Prime Minister and Council of Ministers sworn in. 30 208
(Presidential Council must designate new Prime Minister in
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US Withdrawal and Transition
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US Withdrawal and Reorganization
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .34
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US Aid 2009-2010
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .21
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US PRT Changes: 2009-2011
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .36
As of 12/31/2009 OPA has completed
the planning process for
consolidating the remaining 6 ePRTs
into the main PRTs in Baghdad and
Anbar. This will leave 15 main PRT
locations and 1 Regional
Reconstruction Team (RRT), along
with smaller satellite locations
established in coordination with the
local U.S. military commander, to
focus on capacity-building activities
and projects in the immediate vicinity
of these locations.
PRT satellite locations remain in
operation only if military sup-port is
available and only if programs,
projects, or engagements deemed
vital to U.S. interests remain in
progress.
The current PRT Operation Plan
anticipates maintaining the 15 fully
functioning PRTs and 1 RRT into the
summer of 2011. The U.S. civilian
presence beyond that time is still
under review.
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US Withdrawal and ISF
Development
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Iraqi Security Forces: 2004-2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .42
As of December 2009, ISF force strength in the MOI, MOD, and Iraqi National
Counter-Terrorism Force reportedly totaled 660,334 assigned personnel. The
MOD has approved a force structure that calls for 14 Iraqi Army (IA) divisions; a
Navy of 3,800 personnel, including two Marine battalions; and an Air Force of
6,000 personnel.138 The MOD has also begun to develop and plan for units
across a range of disciplines: engineering, bomb disposal, medical evacuation,
signal, intelligence, surveil- lance, and reconnaissance
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Iraqi Views of ISF and Stability: July 2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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US ISFF Funding
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .24
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US ISFF Funding By Ministry
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .25
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US Equipment Draw Down and Transfer
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .32
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US Changes in Police Training
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .35
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Iraqi Budgets and How Much
Hinges on Oil
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The Truth About Iraq’s Oil Wealth: Poverty on the Surface; Potential Underground
CIA World Factbook, January 2010
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000
Bahrain
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
UAE
Yemen
GDP Per CapitaRanks 162nd in the
World in Per Capita
Income: One of
World’s Poorest
Countries
Education and
Health systems in
collapse
2 million IDPs
outside Iraq --
including much of
elite
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Iraq’s Role in the Regional Youth Explosion
CIA World Factbook, January 2010
Population in
Thousands: 1960-
2050
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000
Bahrain
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
UAE
Yemen
2050
2025
2009
1975
1950
2050 980 81,490 56,316 6,383 5,402 1,116 49,830 26,025 8,019 45,781
2025 868 76,779 40,387 4,179 3,981 938 35,680 15,148 7,063 32,650
2009 729 66,429 28,946 2,693 2,910 833 28,687 9,832 4,798 22,858
1975 259 33,265 11,118 1,007 920 169 7,205 4,128 523 7,934
1950 115 16,357 5,163 145 489 25 3,860 2,438 72 4,777
Bahrain Iran Iraq Kuwait Oman QatarSaudi
ArabiaSomalia UAE Yemen
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The Broader Demographic Pressure
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Mil l ions 5.2 6.89 9.4 13.2 18.1 19.6 22.7 26.1 28.9 33.3 40.4
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2015 2025
- 38.8% are 0-14 ye ars of age
- 313,000 male s reach 18 each ye ar.
- Une mployme nt 18-30%
- 154th in pe r capita income vs . 2nd for
Qatar, 5th for Kuwait, 58th for Saudi
Source: US Census Bureau, IDB, 28-7-09
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Iraqi Budgets: 2007-2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.19
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Iraqi Funding Sources: 2003-End 2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.10
As of December 31, 2009, nearly $141.49 billion had been made available for the relief and reconstruction of Iraq. These funds came from
three main sources:36
•Iraqi funds that were overseen by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and Iraqi capital budgets—$71.19 billion
•International pledges of assistance from non-U.S. sources—$17.01 billion
•U.S. appropriations—$53.30 billion CPA Era
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Iraqi World Price of Oil ($US/per barrel) 2003-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1601
/3/2
00
3
7/3
/20
03
1/3
/20
04
7/3
/20
04
1/3
/20
05
7/3
/20
05
1/3
/20
06
7/3
/20
06
1/3
/20
07
7/3
/20
07
1/3
/20
08
7/3
/20
08
1/3
/20
09
7/3
/20
09
1/3
/20
10
Wo
rld
Pri
ce
of
Oil
($
US
pe
r b
arr
el)
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Iraq: The Cost-Benefit of Oil
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .77
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Bidding for Oil by Field: 2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .53
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Bidding for Oil - Who Got What: 2009
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .53
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Projections of Possible Oil Revenues
SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.10
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Back Up Slides
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54Source: Department of Defense. “Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq.” March, 2009. Pg. 25
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Average Daily Attacks by Province,
June 1, 2009 - August 31, 2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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High Profile Attacks (Bombings), May
2006 - August 2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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Weapons Caches Found by Iraqi &
MNF-I forces), January 3, 2004 -
August 28, 2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09
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ISF and MNF-I Military Deaths,
January 2006 - August 2009
Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09