100% Renewable New Zealand Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Contribution?

Allan Miller

Director, EPECentre and GREEN Grid

1. PV uptake in New Zealand and PV’s energy contribution

2. Impact of PV in the Network

3. The global PV industry and new PV technology

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http://www.solartron.co.th/Product_SolarPVRooftop.htm 4

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Cumulative Capacity

Transition from one data set to another

PV uptake in New Zealand and PV’s energy contribution

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Watts per person comparisons Country PV Watts per person

Germany 440

Italy 293

Belgium 267

Bulgaria 140

Australia 139

Spain 119

Japan 107

Denmark 95

Switzerland 91

France 70

UK 46

USA 38

New Zealand (June 2014) 2

New Zealand (Jan 2015) 4

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Future renewable energy contribution of PV?

• Assume 100W per person

• Totals 451MWp of generation capacity

• At a 17% capacity factor, gives 672GWh of energy per year

• Contributes 1.6% of renewable energy generation (using 2014 electricity generation figures)

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Impact of PV in the network

• Load Profile

– locally and system wide

• Voltage Profile

– local network

• Frequency

– system wide

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NZ Load Profile: Sequence of winter days with

450MW of PV

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13-6-2014, New Zealand

New Zealand Before PV

New Zealand With PV

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13-6-2014, New Zealand, 100 Watts per person average (451MW total in New Zealand), north facing panels, optimal tilt

New Zealand Before PV

New Zealand With PV

207MW

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14-6-2014, New Zealand, 100 Watts per person average (451MW total in New Zealand), north facing panels, optimal tilt

New Zealand Before PV

New Zealand With PV

260MW

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15-6-2014, New Zealand, 100 Watts per person average (451MW total in New Zealand), north facing panels, optimal tilt

New Zealand Before PV

New Zealand With PV

55MW

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16-6-2014, New Zealand, 100 Watts per person average (451MW total in New Zealand), north facing panels, optimal tilt

New Zealand Before PV

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156MW

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14-6-2014, New Zealand, 400 Watts per person average (1804MW total in New Zealand), north facing panels, optimal tilt

New Zealand Before PV

New Zealand With PV

What if New Zealand reaches 400Watts Per Person?

1,041MW

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Voltage profile – local network

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The global PV industry and new PV technology

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Global Cumulative PV Installations until 2013

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Photovoltaics Report 24-10-2014 Data: from 2000 to 2011: EPIA; from 2012: IHS and Photon. Graph: PSE AG 2014

The total cumulative installations at the end of the year 2013 were about 134 GWp.

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50 GWp installed in 2014

PV Industry Production by Region

(2000-2013)

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Photovoltaics Report 24-10-2014 Data: Navigant Consulting and Paula Mints. Graph. PSE AG 2014

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Global Annual PV Production by Technology

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Photovoltaics Report 24-10-2014 Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS (Mono-/Multi- proportion estimated). Graph: PSE AG 2014

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Energy intensive, made in China

Solar Cell Efficiencies

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, Photovoltaics Report 24-10-2014 Data: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 1-43), Progress in PV: Research and Applications, 1993-2014. Graph: Simon Philipps, Fraunhofer ISE 2014

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Conclusion

• Solar Photovoltaics will make only a small contribution to New Zealand’s renewable energy future to ~2025 – Nearly 3,000MW of wind consented and ~300MW of geothermal consented, which have the potential to deliver far more energy – Photovoltaics has a poor capacity factor, so even if New Zealand did have 450MW of PV, for example, it would only deliver about

1.6% of New Zealand’s electrical energy (based on 2014 consumption)

• However we cannot ignore PV – It will be manifest as a changing load and load profile

• will make a large change to load due to its poor capacity factor • will do nothing to reduce New Zealand’s system peak load, which occurs in winter

– It has the potential to cause significant power quality issues in the distribution network – It is a consumer driven change, not an industry driven change, with a huge global industry behind it. It is therefore inevitable

• 1.6% renewable share not relevant to households, only their generation is of interest to them

– Beyond ~2025 panels will become more efficient, approaching 20-30% capacity factor in NZ (currently ~17%). Battery technology may also become economical, making PV more attractive to households.

• Best solution for New Zealand? – New Zealand’s wind and geothermal resource – PV’s high GHG payback time

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