10 years into the revolution - urban foresight...eco-driving. location services. e-payment....

Dr. David Beeton | CEO & Founder, Urban Foresight

Greenfleet Scotland, Edinburgh | 4 May 2018

10 years into the rEVolution

Photo credit: Oto Godfrey and Justin Morton

ELECTRIC BIOFUELSHYDROGEN LPG/CNG

YEAR OF:

HIBERNATION

EVs were only a minority

activity for governments

and automakers.

Biofuels and hydrogen

arguably enjoyed greater

prominence and

attention.

2007

YEAR OF:

IGNITION

The economic downturn

hit automakers hard and

encouraged the

acceleration of

electrification R&D as

the closest-to-market

technology to reinvent

the fortunes of an ailing

sector.

2008

YEAR OF:

PARTNERSHIPS

Collaborative EV

programmes were

initiated to combine the

expertise of

governments, OEMs,

utilities, cities, regions

and technology

suppliers.

smart grids

public

destination

vehicle to grid

vehicle to home

markets & operation

payment

administration

fast (AC/DC)

battery swop

behaviour change

inductive

recharging networks

vehicles

cars

commercial

buses

integrated transport

car clubs

parking

extend journeys

ITS

state of charge

range estimation

eco-driving

location services

e-payment

mobility

fleets

two wheelers

generate & distribute

renewable energy

standards

interoperability

vehicles & batteries

energy storage

management systems

batteries & materials

vehicle tech

hybrids

navigation

range-extenders

drive trains

regulation

education

skills & services

first responders

manufacturing

sales

maintain/ repair

charge type

standard

connectors

AC/DC

safety

installations

energy mgmt

customer mgmt

back office

charging control

demand forecast

remote switching

private

home

microgeneration

demand management

network controls

public transport

smart ticketing

dynamic pricing

smart meters

regeneration

lightweighting

alternative fuels

journey planning

expectation mgmt

tax & incentives

2nd life/ recycling

legal/ commercial

value-add services

leasing

business models

funding

2009

YEAR OF:

PILOTS

Data and findings from

pilots emerged from

major cities and

pioneering regions

around the world,

informing both the

development of vehicles

and charging

infrastructure systems.

2010

YEAR OF:

EXPECTATION

The excitement of the

anticipated arrival of cars

created a situation

where global demand

appeared to outstrip

supply.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle

Peak of inflated

expectations

Technology trigger

Trough of disillusionment

Slope of enlightenment

Plateau of productivity

Expectations

Maturity

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2011

BARRIERS TO ADOPTION• High purchase cost

• Limited range of EVs and range anxiety

• Availability of recharging infrastructure

• Ability to value whole-life running costs of vehicles

• Residual value

• Lack of public awareness and knowledge

• Aversion to new technology

• Performance and choice of vehicles

• Lifespan of batteries

• Capacity of local distribution networks

• Backing the wrong technology

• Green credentials

• Lack of allocated parking for domestic recharging

• Lack of aftersales support networks

• Business models

• Risk of lack of standardisation and interoperability

• End of life of batteries

YEAR OF:

QUESTIONS

The first full year when

anyone could buy an EV

encouraged questions

about the prospects for

the technology and a

short-term focus on

apparent limitations.

2012

YEAR OF:

AMBIVALENCE

Notable early market

successes such as

Norway and California

were tempered by

persistent concerns over

perceived barriers and a

belief that market uptake

should be quicker.

2013

YEAR OF:

CHASM

Industry and

governments wrestled

with identifying the future

policies, technologies

and business models

that would facilitate the

transition to mass

market adoption. Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards

HOW?THE

CHASM

2014

YEAR OF:

CHASM

Industry and

governments wrestled

with identifying the future

policies, technologies

and business models

that would facilitate the

transition to mass

market adoption.

2014

YEAR OF:

INCENTIVES

A sharpened focus on

financial and non-

financial incentives to

increase EV adoption.

PPARKING INFRASTRUCTURE

PROVISIONPLANNING

CROAD ACCESS AND

CHARGING

T A X I

TAXIS & PRIVATE HIRE

VEHICLES

INTEGRATION WITH WIDER TRANSPORT

CAR SHARING PROCUREMENT

€$ £ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT & TOURISM

PILOTS & TRIALS EDUCTAION & PROMOTION

£FINANCIAL MEASURES

2015

YEAR OF:

NORMALISATION

Growing numbers of EVs

in more mature markets

created an increased

confidence and some

complacency.

2016

YEAR OF:

COMMITMENTS

Governments, cities and

automotive

manufacturers

committed to phasing

out fossil fuelled

vehicles.

2017

2018

1,900charging outlets

across Scotland

538of these outlets

are rapid chargers

250,000EV charging

sessions from Jan to Sep ‘17

3.07GWhof energy delivered

60.5million miles per year

driven by Scottish EVs

OrkneyStirling

Renfrewshirehighest ratio of EVs to people

5% of the UK’s EVs are in Scotland

35%fewer EVs per

person than UK average

I f 10% of cars were electr ic

1,400fewer lives

lost due to air pollution

£158m saved in health costs from air

pollution

2,600tonnes

reduction in NOx and PM

535,000 tonnes

reduction in CO2 emissions

CLOSING THOUGHTS ON THEFUTURE

EXPECTATIONS

CHOICE

Multiple OEMs

producing a range of EV

models that meet

different customer needs

and expectations.

FUTURE

- First electric vehicles on the market-Obtaining first experience with electric driving

- Plug – in electric market is growing- Bigger audience is obtaining experience

- Large number of full electric vehicles are on the market- Significant number of electric vehicles on the market

Source: IEA (2017)

2008 2012 2018 2020

Expected take off point

EXPECTATIONS

TECHNOLOGY

ADVANCES

Technologies currently in

the R&D stage have

better performance than

those available on the

market and battery costs

will continue to decline.

FUTURE

Source: IEA (2017)

EXPECTATIONS

MOTIVATION

Growing understanding

and awareness of the

health and

environmental costs of

fossil fuels.

FUTURE

YOU CAN HELP!

https://bit.ly/2FHQZoa

Your future is whatever you make it.

So make it a good one.Doc Brown, 1990

Dr. David BeetonCEO & Founder | Urban Foresight LimitedUnit 15, District 10, Greenmarket, Dundee

[email protected]@dbeeton

www.urbanforesight.org@UrbanForesight

THANK YOU

30scottishpower.com

Juliet Farquhar

Electric Vehicles in ScottishPower

Head of Commercial Operations

http://www.scottishpower.com/

31scottishpower.com

Key Internal Messages

1. Decarbonising for Climate Change – “We need to all act now to fight climate change”

We are all responsible for taking action to reduce our carbon emissions. With a large proportion of today’s carbon emissions coming from transportation, low emissions vehicles such as electric cars, vans and buses should be encouraged as a positive step that we can make.

2. Customer-focused low-carbon living and energy awareness – “We are smarter energy customers that are environmentally aware”

From smart connected homes and appliances to rooftop solar panels, our society is becoming more engaged in low carbon living and energy systems. Electric Vehicles are another way in which we see customers engaging positively with ScottishPower whether as aprovider of energy for their vehicles or in terms of providing access to charging points throughout the country.

3. Intelligent investment in supporting infrastructure – “We need a system capable of supporting EVs in the decades to come”

In order to help the decarbonisation of transport through EVs, there has to be investment in the nation’s electricity network. From access to charging points, to the significant investments required in the electricity network as a whole, charging of EVs has to be done in an intelligent and fair way in order to optimise the benefits whilst ensuring the electricity network can support EV uptake in the years to come.

4. Zero emissions vehicles powered by renewables generation – “Electric vehicles should be powered by renewable electricity”

Decarbonising transport is perfectly aligned with the great steps we have taken to decarbonise electricity generation. Affordable renewable electricity is being provided by ScottishPower’s windfarms to ensure our electric cars can be powered by cost-effective renewable generation. As the number of EVs in society increases, we need to ensure that the development of this highly cost-effective renewable generation continues so as to make progress towards a low carbon future.


32scottishpower.com

Global Market Perspective

In 10 countries, EV sales represent more than 2% of the total vehicles’ sales More than 3 million EVs worldwide, using ~ 11 TWh

In 2017, Electrical Vehicle sales exceed one million units per year, with nearly 50% in China


33scottishpower.comBusiness Services

Scottish Power Fleet

• 6,077 Direct Staff

• 1,461 Vehicleso 189 cars (essential user and some pool cars)o 1,202 commercial light vehicleso 70 HGV’s

• 550 days of short term hire per month

Diverse range of vehicles, users ,and requirements


34scottishpower.com

The Challenges

Enabling EV’s

EV Technology

Working Practices

Charging Infrastructure

Viable electric alternative to vehicle requirements. Range and payload considerations.

Resistance to change Home start and other operational working practices

Limited EV charging infrastructure across ScottishPower sites


35scottishpower.com

Telematics

The installation of Trakm8 telematics in all commercial vehicles is supporting the targeted the roll out of electric vehicles.

Live and historical journey data has allowed us to complete an analysis of vehicles with a suitable range and proximity to charging facilities.

Through our analysis and a review of the EV market we now have a complete list of which commercial vehicles could feasibly be transitioned to an electric equivalent.


36scottishpower.com

Stakeholder Engagement

– Executive Sponsorship• Clear alignment with Iberdrola and ScottishPower clean energy strategy• Senior Management commitment to EV roll out

– Company Policies• Vehicle Replacement Strategy

– A commitment to evaluate EV options for all vehicle future vehicle replacements

– Vehicle Users• Discussion at vehicle user groups

– Range of nominator vehicle users from across the business act as champions of the programme

• Deploying a number of demonstrator vehicles across ScottishPower – Feedback from all stakeholders to enable a smooth transition of EV where practical

Engaging at all levels within the organisation to gain buy in


37scottishpower.com

Outcome

• Staged programme of EV roll out to take advantage of the most recent technologies

• Target pool cars and small vans

• Prioritised list of charging point locations

• Utilisation of smart charging technology

Commitment to evaluate EV options on all vehicle replacements to support Iberdrola carbon-neutral target


38scottishpower.com

Juliet Farquhar


Switched on FleetsGreenfleet4 May 2018Ellie Grebenik

What is Switched on Fleets?

40

Greenfleet – Switched on Fleets4 May 2018

Government initiative supporting the deployment of plug-in vehicles in each of Scotland's 32 Community Planning Partnerships (CPPs) Focus on providing support for

a variety of public sector fleets

Why is it important?

• 17% reduction in new diesel car registrations compared to 2016

• 27% increase in new ULEV registrations compared to 2016

41


But still only 53,000 ULEVs were registered in 2017

42

Indicates swift movement of these cars from the fleet market to the private market.

Huge potential to influence the second hand market

Company owned vehicles


The commercial fleet and company car market is a primary driver of new registrations for cars.

Cost savings

43


Progress so far…

Phase 1: 2014-2016• £2.5M grant fundingAdditional £1.2M added in 2016-2017• Over 50 organisations engaged• Over 240 fully funded vehicle

replacements• Support provided to Local

Authorities, NHS Boards, Emergency Services, Colleges and Universities (+ many more)

44


East Ayrshire Council

45


Key trends…

Types of vehicles bought / leased

Key trends…

Cost savings achieved on fuel(Figures calculated using the difference between electricity cost and hypothetical fuel cost assuming the mileage would otherwise be covered in a similar diesel vehicle)

46


Average saving of

8.1p per mile

Highlights so far

47

Av Monthly MileageCare and Repair 2,262Forth Valley College 1,293NHS Fife 1,206Stirling Council 3,680


Fuel cost savings*Dundee City Council £4,502Inverclyde Council £1,197Perth & Kinross Council £1,391Voluntary Action Angus £929

*limited results of this due to not all organisations having the capacity to record electricity costs

Learnings…

• Assumptions - such as vehicles being operational 24/7

• Data collection• Mileage data provided for just 159

vehicles• Complete data sets provided for

just 53 vehicles• A number of operators did not

respond at all48


Moving forwards...

• Significant increase in funds being distributed to CCPs for 2018-19

• Targeting high-mileage vehicles in public sector

• Ensure on-going support to organisations

49


Aims and objectives

• Cost savings for public sector organisations across Scotland

• CO2 savings compared to business as usual

How to get involved• Local Authority• Transport Scotland• EST

Other Support Available across Scotland from EST

• 6 year interest-free loans (non-public sector) up to £100,000

• Grants for charging infrastructure• FuelGood driver training • Employee engagement SO@W• Sustainable Transport Reviews

50


Ellie GrebenikSenior Programme Manager, Scottish [email protected] 555 7876

mailto:[email protected]

10 years into the revolution - urban foresight...eco-driving. location services. e-payment....

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