10 predictions for 2015: some key trends and developments in mobile telecommunications
TRANSCRIPT
www.hartwoodgroup.co.uk Connecting for the future
10 Predictions for 2015: Some key trends and developments in
mobile telecommunications
Frank Masson - Commercial Director
www.hartwoodgroup.co.uk Connecting for the future
The immediate future of our wonderful, exciting and innovative mobile telecoms industry
• Across the world, the telecoms sector is the largest employer and an enabler
for the economic success of the other
sectors of the economy
• The outlook for 2015 is of interest to
many, both inside the industry, and
outside as tech-savvy consumers and
those with business or other
professional interests
• In this slide deck we'll pick out some key trends and factors that are set to
shape the next 12 months
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1. An Emphasis on Increasing Capacity and Quality
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In 2015 networks are likely to have an
increasingly stronger focus on
delivering both increased capacity
and quality
The ability to deliver value-added services that drive increased
margins are dependent on the
stability and reliability of connections
This may drive an increasing trend
for Quality Assurance and
Continual Improvement programmes
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2. Rapid growth of the IoT & M2M
Wearables market and M2M (Machine to machine) connectivity to be the drivers of the (IoT) Internet of Things
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By 2020 estimates show there will be the thick end of…50 BILLION smart devices
The sub-text of marketing next-gen mobile data services is likely to be 'it's good for devices to talk'
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3. Continuing significant investment in 4G
• By 2017 the major UK networks
will invest a further £2 - £4 billion
on 4G commissioning,
maintaining or managing cellular
infrastructure
• National roaming a major talking
point between the industry and
the UK Government
• A key challenge in rolling out 4G to
less densely populated areas is
squaring the investment versus
profitability calculation
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4. A continuing dialogue to enable the development of national roaming
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• Progress should be made on network sharing and the
development of national roaming
• Commonly identified issues that
need to be addressed include
differentiation; technical
complexity; legal and investment
• A national roaming debate is a big
opportunity for the industry to
broaden the scope of the discussion with Government to
reach agreement on other issues
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5. Further development on the specification of 5G
• A new set of higher bandwidth cellular
protocols emerge every 10 years or so
and if 5G is to avoid breaking the
pattern, then it needs to appear before
the end of this decade
• Currently, there is no definition and new
capabilities are still being grouped
under the current ITU-T 4G standards
• If Boris Johnson's comment that London
is to have 5G by 2020 is to become a
reality, then work defining 5G needs to
get moving over the next 12 months
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6. The quest for differentiation will continue
• Very difficult to achieve clear and meaningful differentiation based on
network quality, service pricing and customer service
• MVNO model lets budget brands like supermarkets enter the market but its
low margin, low value differentiation, and a 'race to the bottom’
• Delivering value added services is a much stronger pillar around which to build
differentiation – it monetises infrastructure better and delivers faster ROI
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QUALITY PRICING CUSTOMER SERVICE
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7. Rapid growth of the connected wearable tech market
• Wearables set to shift significant volumes in
the forthcoming year and by 2016 the
market will be worth a staggering £3 billion
• Healthcare and wellbeing is the 'frictionless'
end of the Wearable market as the benefits
are enormous and privacy issues negligible
• Public use of full blown wearable computers
such as Google Glass offer 'maximum
friction' on privacy issues, however
commercial applications will drive the
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8. Focus on leveraging the infrastructure with services that add value
• Many operators believe regulatory pressure on pricing may damage short term profitability and hamper the injection of regular and sizeable investment
• With profits earned from subscribers under pressure, a renewed focus on
value-added services is likely to be a key strategic objective
• M2M/IoT in the shape of home automation or connected business devices
such as smart cabinets or vending machines may open the way to developing
these services
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9. Providing value for customers across multiple devices
• The importance of shared data tariffs is
likely to increase
• In the UK's highly developed economy
subscribers own multiple devices and
want the most flexibility and convenience
as well as the best value for money
• Shared data tariffs letting a single
subscriber share data allowances across
multiple devices provide differentiation
through delivering value
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10. Increasing M&A and market consolidation
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• 2015 looks like a very interesting year
for M&A with quadplay perceived as
a key battleground
• BT has formally indicated its interest
in M&A of existing network
operators and SKY is tipped by some
to enter the market
• M&A activity could originate from a
consortium led by sportswear
brands, sporting clubs or the owners
of sports broadcasting rights
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Summary
2015 is set to be at least as challenging as any other year as the mobile industry attempts to bring together the needs of
government, regulators and subscribers
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There is a need to avoid a simplistic point of view that casts network operators as the good guys and the Government and the
regulator as baddies
It is a long game where strategy and innovation are the keys to success and Hartwood remains a trusted strategic and technical adviser