10-31-12 contra costa aor
TRANSCRIPT
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Economic and Housing MarketOutlook (2012 2013)
Contra Costa AOR
October 31, 2012
Oscar WeiSenior Research Analyst
California Association of REALTORS
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Overview
US and California Economies
California Housing Market
Local Market Conditions
Market Opportunities
California Forecast
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US and CaliforniaEconomic Conditions
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Gross Domestic Product: Growth is stalling
-8%
-7%
-6%-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%1%
2%
3%
4%
5%6%
7%
8%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
----
Q2-10
Q4-10
Q2-11
Q4-11
Q2-12
2011: 1.6%; 2012 Q3: 2.0%ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $
ANNUAL QTRLY
2009 Largest Annual Drop since1938 (-3.4%)
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Unemployment: Cyclical & Structural
Heading Down: At 3 year lows
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12
CA US
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-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
U.S. Non-farm Job Growth
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Month-to-Month ChangesRecession Job Losses: 8.8 million
Since Jan10: +4.2 million
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-160000
-110000
-60000
-10000
40000
90000
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
California Non-farm Job Growth
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Month-to-Month ChangesRecession Job Losses: 1.3 million
Since Jan10: + 486,000
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Job Trends by California Metro Area
Source:CAEDD,LaborMarketInformationDivision,LAEDC
July 2012: CA +2.6%, +365.1 thousand Jobs
Annual Percentage Change in Nonfarm Jobs
0.4%1.3%
1.6%
2.0%
2.1%
2.1%2.3%
2.8%
2.9%
3.1%
3.5%4.4%
6.3%
2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
VenturaModesto
LosAngeles
OrangeCounty
Bakersfield
OaklandRiverside
Sacramento
SanDiego
Fresno
SanJoseSan
Francisco
Stockton
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Professional & Business Services
Leading Sector
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12
Professional&BusinessServices
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department
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Construction Is Making a Comeback
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12
Construction
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department
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Manufacturing Stumbling but
Worst Is Over
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12
Manufacturing
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department
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Consumer Confidence
Uneven But Things Are Getting BetterSeptember 2012: 70.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan05
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
INDEX, 100=1985
SOURCE: The Conference Board
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Consumer Price Index Subdued for Now
September 2012: All Items +2.0% YTY; Core +0.7% YTY
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
All Items Core
PERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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U.S. Economic Outlook
Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f
USGDP 0.30% 3.50% 3.00% 1.70% 2.00% 2.30%
NonfarmJobGrowth 0.60% 4.40% 0.70% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60%
Unemployment 5.80% 9.30% 9.60% 9.00% 8.20% 8.00%
CPI 3.80% 0.40% 1.60% 3.20% 2.00% 2.10%
RealDisposable
Income,%Change 0.50% 0.90% 1.80% 1.30% 1.60% 1.60%
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California Economic Outlook
Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f
NonfarmJobGrowth 1.3% 6.0% 1.1% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6%
UnemploymentRate 7.2% 11.3% 12.4% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9%
PopulationGrowth 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9%
RealDisposable
Income,%Change 1.0% 3.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.0%
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Economic Risks
Fiscal cliff
Fall election Tax reform
State and local government finances
Euro Zone crisis Future of Fannie and Freddie
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California Housing Market
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CA Sales of Existing Detached Homes
September 2012 Sales: 484,240 Units, Up 5.6% YTD, Down 1.2% YTY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
SalesUNITS
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS; The Conference Board
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
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SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
63.0%
24.3%
12.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12
Equity Sales Short Sale REO
Share of Equity Sales Has Been
Trending Upward Since Early 2012
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Equity Sales and Short Sales Continued to
Improve, While REO Sales Dropped
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Equity Sales Short Sales REO Sales
14.1%
3.6%
-59.0%
(% Change in Sales Year to Year)
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Change in Sales by Sales Type
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
14.1%
3.6%
-59.0%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
Equity Sales Short Sales REO Sales
(Year-to-Year)
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SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
REO & Short Sales: Bay Area
(Percent of Total Sales)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
10% 10%
8% 11% 7%4%
17%13%
18% 18%16%
26%
13% 18%
42%
24%
Sep 2012
Short Sales
REO Sales
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Sales Dropped in Lower Price Segments
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
$0 - $200k $200 - $300k $300 - $400k $400 - $500k $500k+
-27.7%
-15.4%
6.7%
14.1% 15.1%
% Chg in Sales
(% Change in Sales Year to Year)
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Change in Sales by Price Range
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
-27.7%
-15.4%
6.7%
14.1%
15.1%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
$0 - $200k $200 - $300k $300 - $400k $400 - $500k $500k+
(Year-to-Year)
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Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
California, September 2012: $345,000, Up 19.5% YTY
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000 P:May07$594,530
T:Feb09
$245,230
59%from
peak
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
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CA Unsold Inventory: Nearing Record Lows
California, September 2012: 3.7 Months
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
MONTHS
Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (whenavailable) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.
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Price Range (Thousand) Sep-11 Aug-12 Sep-12
$1,000K+ 9.9 6.1 7.7
$750-1000K 6.1 4.0 4.7
$500-750K 6.0 3.1 3.6
$300-500K 5.4 3.0 3.3
$0-300K 4.6 2.8 3.2
Unsold Inventory Index:
Shortage Across All Price Ranges
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (whenavailable) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.
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Tight Supply of Inventory,
Especially for REO Sales
0
1
2
3
4
EquitySales REOSales ShortSales
3.8
2.2
3.9
Sep12UnsoldInventory Index(Months)
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
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SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12
Equity Sales REO Short Sales
Inventory Has Been Declining
Since Early 2012UnsoldInventory Index(Months)
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Housing Permits ImprovingSlowly
2012(p): 52,000 units, Up 10.4% from 2011
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P
Single Family Multi-Family
Household Growth: 220,000-250,000/yr
SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
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57%
4.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2007 2009 2011
% with Multiple Offers # of Multiple offers (Average)
Shareofhomesaleswithmultipleoffersisthehighestinatleastthelast12years
Supply Shortage CreatesMore Market Competition
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Demand for Investment & Second/ Vacation
Homes Dipped Slightly, But Remained Strong
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Vacation/SecondHome
Investment/Rental
Property
7%
16%
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For Those Who Purchased
an Investment Property:
Investment to Flip
Rental Property
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More Buyers Are Purchasing with Cash
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
30%
%ofAllCashSales
Almostonethirdofbuyerspaidwithallcash
Theshareofallcashbuyershasbeenontherisesince2006
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One of Five REALTORS Worked with anInternational Buyer in the Past 12 Months
Q. How many properties have you sold to an international buyer in the last 12 months?
79%
9%5% 3% 1% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0 1 2 3 4 5+ #ofProperties
%WhoSoldtoInternationalBuyers
# of Properties Sold to International Buyers in the Last 12 Months
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More Sellers Are Planning to Buy Another
Home as the Market Slowly Recovers
Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
40%
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Regional/LocalReal Estate Market
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ALAMEDA COUNTY
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Sales of Residential Homes
Alameda County, September 2012: 1,072 Units
Down 22.6% MTM, Down 6.6% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Median Price of Residential Homes
Alameda County, September 2012: $406,000
Down 1.0% MTM, Up 19.4% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Months Supply of Inventory
Alameda County, September 2012: 1.1 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question.The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month.
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CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
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Sales of Residential Homes
Contra Costa County, September 2012: 1,056 Units
Down 21.7% MTM, Down 15.0% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Median Price of Residential Homes
Contra Costa County, September 2012: $325,000
Up 6.2% MTM, Up 28.5% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Months Supply of Inventory
Contra Costa County, September 2012: 1.1Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question.The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month.
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WALNUT CREEK
S
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Sales of Residential Homes
Walnut Creek, September 2012: 118 Units
Down 28.5% MTM, Down 8.5% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
M di P i f R id i l H
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Median Price of Residential Homes
Walnut Creek, September 2012: $478,000
Up 18.9% MTM, Up 35.4% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
M th S l f I t
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Months Supply of Inventory
Walnut Creek, September 2012: 0.8 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question.The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month.
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DANVILLE
Sales of Residential Homes
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Sales of Residential Homes
Danville, September 2012: 58 Units
Down 20.5% MTM, Up 16.0% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes
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Median Price of Residential Homes
Danville, September 2012: $761,920
Down 7.1% MTM, Down 2.3% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory
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Month s Supply of Inventory
Danville, September 2012: 1.6 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question.The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month.
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CONCORD
Sales of Residential Homes
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Sales of Residential Homes
Concord, September 2012: 96 Units
Down 40.0% MTM, Down 31.4% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes
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Median Price of Residential Homes
Concord, September 2012: $287,500
Down 4.2% MTM, Up 18.3% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory
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Month s Supply of Inventory
Concord, September 2012: 0.9 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question.The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month.
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RICHMOND
Sales of Residential Homes
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Sales of Residential Homes
Richmond, September 2012: 88 Units
Down 25.4% MTM, Down 18.5% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes
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Median Price of Residential Homes
Richmond, September 2012: $196,750
Up 8.3% MTM, Up 38.6% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory
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Month s Supply of Inventory
Richmond, September 2012: 1.2 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question.The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month.
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EL SOBRANTE
Sales of Residential Homes
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El Sobrante, September 2012: 11 Units
Down 21.4% MTM, Even 0% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Median Price of Residential Homes
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El Sobrante, September 2012: $305,000
Up 24.1% MTM, Up 28.8% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Months Supply of Inventory
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pp y y
El Sobrante, September 2012: 1.2 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question.The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month.
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EL CERRITO
Sales of Residential Homes
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El Cerrito, September 2012: 16 Units
Up 6.7% MTM, Down 5.9% YTY
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
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Months Supply of Inventory
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El Cerrito, September 2012: 1.0 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Note: Months Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question.The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question.The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month.
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Alameda County
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Preforeclosure: 1,870 Auction: 2,489 Bank Owned: 540
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/25/12.
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Alameda County
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Preforeclosure: 1,870 Auction: 2,489 Bank Owned: 540
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/25/12.
Alameda County
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Preforeclosure: 1,870 Auction: 2,489 Bank Owned: 540
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/25/12.
Contra Costa County
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Preforeclosure: 2,042 Auction: 2,385 Bank Owned: 639
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/25/12.
Contra Costa County
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Preforeclosure: 2,042 Auction: 2,385 Bank Owned: 639
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/25/12.
Contra Costa County
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Preforeclosure: 2,042 Auction: 2,385 Bank Owned: 639
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/25/12.
Contra Costa County
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Preforeclosure: 2,042 Auction: 2,385 Bank Owned: 639
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/25/12.
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Danville
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Preforeclosure: 68 Auction: 104 Bank Owned: 13
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/25/12.
Concord
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Preforeclosure: 210 Auction: 247 Bank Owned: 72
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/25/12.
Richmond
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Preforeclosure: 234 Auction: 249 Bank Owned: 77
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/29/12.
El Sobrante
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Preforeclosure: 17 Auction: 26 Bank Owned: 22
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/29/12.
El Cerrito
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Preforeclosure: 20 Auction: 28 Bank Owned: 7
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/29/12.
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Market Opportunities
January 2009 October 2012
Mortgage Rates at 50 Year Lows
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
FRM ARM
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
WEEKLY AVERAGE MONTHLY WEEKLY
Home Prices Rising but Still Very Attractive
C f S
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California Statewide Median Price
$
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12
CA Housing Affordability at Record Highs
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0%
10%
20%
30%40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q12005
Q32005
Q12006
Q32006
Q12007
Q32007
Q12008
Q32008
Q12009
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q12011
Q32011
Q12012
CA US
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
8 in 10 Renters Would Like toBuy in the Future
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renters are hardly
immune to the allure of
homeownership, even
in the face of the five-year decline in prices.
Asked if they rent out
of choice or because
they cannot afford tobuy a home, just
24% say they
rent out of
choice.
SOURCE: Pew Research Centers Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst
8 in 10 Americans Agree Buying a Homeis the Best Investment One Can Make
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SOURCE: Pew Research Centers Home Sweet Home. Still. Five Years After the Bubble Burst
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California HousingMarket Forecast
California Housing Market Outlook
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Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f
SFHResales
(000s) 441.81 546.86 492.29 497.86 523.25 530
%Change 27.3% 23.8% 10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3%
MedianPrice
($000s) 348.5$
275.0$
305.0$
286.0$
317.0$
335.0$
%Change 37.8% 21.1% 10.9% 6.2% 10.9% 5.7%
30YrFRM 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0%
1YrARM 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
Recovery Will Continue in 2013,with Both Sales and the Median Price Up
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Units(Thousand)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
523.3530.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f
Sales of Existing Detached Homes
$317
$335
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f
Median Price
Price(Thousand)
Dollar Volume of Sales ImprovingUp 16.5% in 2012, Up 7.0% in 2013
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$327
$266
$194
$154 $150 $150 $142$166 $178
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f
$VolumeofSales PercentChange
% Change$ in Billion
-54%
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
www.car.org/marketdata Speeches
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Speeches & Presentations
For more information:http://www.facebook.com/CARResearchgroup
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