1 wto public symposium fulfilling the doha development agenda: key issues for developing countries...
TRANSCRIPT
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WTO Public Symposium
Fulfilling the Doha Development Agenda:
Key Issues for developing countries
18 June 2003
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FULFILLING THE DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA: WHY IT
MATTERS
• Global trading system failing to bring benefits
it could to developing countries and to poor people.
• Africa’s share of world trade halved between
1980 and 1999. • Share of 49 poorest countries fell from 0.8% to
0.4% over same period.
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WHY THE DDA MATTERS
• DDA sets out bold agenda, putting development at centre of multilateral trade negotiations.
• First step toward creating a fairer set of rules to
govern international trade. • Includes commitments to:
• Reduce agricultural trade barriers• Improve non-agricultural market access• Make S&DT provisions more effective• Improve rules on TRIPS/ public health and
anti-dumping
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WHY THE DDA MATTERS
• World Bank estimates eliminating all barriers
to trade in goods would generate extra US$ 250bn –620bn in global income. Up to half to developing countries. This could lift 300 million out of poverty by 2015.
• But trade and trade liberalisation alone not
enough. Need pro-poor policies, investment in health and education, greater access by poor to productive assets, stronger institutions, infrastructure and CB to develop supply side.
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WHY THE DDA MATTERS
• Boost to multilateralism and global economy.
Annual growth in world trade barely 2% in 2002 (compared to 7% annual average in 1990s).
• Risks of failure : weakening of multilateral
rules based system and proliferation of bilateral and regional agreements that could leave poorer countries more exposed.
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KEY ISSUES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
AGRICULTURE • Agricultural Market Access is the single biggest development
issue in the DDA. • Agriculture accounts for about 27% of GDP and export earnings
in developing countries as a whole and 50% of employment. • Agricultural markets are among the most heavily protected:
For OECD countries the average bound tariff is 60% (12 times the rate for industrial products).
• OECD spend $310bn every year on agricultural support –
roughly same as sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP. Subsidies to farmers (US$106bn EU, $95bn US and $59bn Japan in 2001) create unfair competition for poorer producers in domestic and third markets.
• Special Safeguard Mechanism important and ‘special products’
subject to minimal tariff reductions to protect food security.
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KEY ISSUES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
TRIPS/Public Health • Agreement at Doha on need to ensure flexibility
in implementing TRIPs, so countries without manufacturing capacity can use compulsory licensing to get access to affordable drugs.
• Critical to meet health needs of millions suffering
from diseases like HIV/AIDS, malaria, TB.
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KEY ISSUES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Special & Differential Treatment • Making S&DT provisions more effective, including
through longer periods to implement WTO rules, lower tariff reductions (critical where government budgets heavily dependent on tariff income).
NAMA • Increased market access for textiles, clothing and
footwear. Estimated there are 27 million less jobs in developing countries because of quotas & tariffs.
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KEY ISSUES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Services• Significant interest in Mode 4 (temporary
movement of workers).
• Estimated that an increase in developed country quotas for skilled and unskilled temporary labour equivalent to just 3% of their labour forces would create increase in global economic welfare 1.5 times greater than gains from liberalisation of all remaining trade restrictions.
Trade Related Capacity Building
• Delivery on commitments.
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PROGRESS SO FAR
Least progress on the issues that matter most todeveloping countries: • Agriculture: Missed deadlines on modalities
for new Agriculture agreement. Awaiting EU CAP reform.
• TRIPS/public health: Every member except US
able to sign up in December to compromise text. No agreement yet.
• S&DT: Need agreement on substantial package
of measures. • NAMA: another missed deadline.
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OBSTACLES• Political will to take on powerful domestic interest
groups in OECD (agricultural reform; TRIPS/public health; and in developing countries that stand to gain from increased South-South trade too.
• More WTO members; more significant players with
divergent interests (e.g. Cairns Group versus those defending ACP preferences).
• Polarised positions on extent of liberalisation (agriculture and NAMA).
• Lack of progress on key issues (e.g. reduction of trade distorting OECD agricultural subsidies) slowing down progress on other issues (NAMA, Services, Singapore issues).
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OBSTACLES
• Breadth of the round and ambitious timetable. • Serious capacity constraints especially of
poorer countries to participate meaningfully in the negotiations. Lack of analysis and input from capitals (e.g. on Service sectors).
• Political events (e.g. US 2004 elections) could
complicate achievement of DDA deadline.
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WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN – BEFORE CANCUN
• Cancun less than 100 days away. • Political leadership: difficult decisions to give
new momentum to the DDA. • EU member states need to reach agreement on
CAP reform (Fischler proposals on decoupling agricultural support from production).
• Secure US support for TRIPS/public health
December 16 text. Possibly with reassurances to pharmaceutical industry on recourse to DSU in clear cases of abuse; and by developing country manufacturers.
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WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN – BEFORE CANCUN
• S&DT: Willingness of advanced developing countries to prioritise needs of poorest WTO members. Progress reached on substantial package of measures.
• World leaders and opinion leaders need to
champion the DDA. • Engagement with business and civil society. • More vocal NGO support on issues of most
importance to developing countries. Ministers won’t take tough political decisions if only hear critical voices.
• Mini-ministerial/s help move negotiations forward.
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SUCCESS AT CANCUN
• Members to recommit to ambition of DDA. • Shared ownership to make it work. • Realistic expectations – important step. • Learn from what worked at Doha and didn’t at
Seattle. • EU/US leadership that made difference at Doha.
Greater convergence on key issues. • Preparation for Cancun – so ministers have a
manageable set of issues. • Reach some agreements to create new momentum.
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WORKING FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENT ROUND BEYOND
CANCUN
• Chairs of negotiations put forward proposals to seed process and build consensus.
• Address concerns of potential losers from loss
of preferential market access (ACP); research extent of problem; IFIs, multilateral and bilateral donors give support to ease transition/diversification.
• Analytical and technical assistance to
developing countries e.g. on Services negotiations; commitments in individual agricultural schedules.
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WORKING FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENT ROUND BEYOND
CANCUN
• Design of proposed framework agreements on “new issues” to address needs of developing countries (cost/benefit e.g. on trade facilitation).
• New approach to S&DT more tailored to helping
individual countries at different stages of development adjust to specific rules and agreements.
• Coordinated approach to Technical Assistance and
Trade-related capacity building by donors through Integrated Framework.
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WORKING FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENT ROUND BEYOND
CANCUN• Address disconnect between Geneva-based trade
negotiations and national economic development policies (PRSPs etc). Integration of trade and development needed to identify new opportunities, careful sequencing of reforms.
• Complementary pro-poor policies so trade contributes to Millennium Development Goals.
• Democracies need to ratify agreements reached.
Greater involvement of civil society and private sector in dialogue on trade and development.