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1 Washington State Energy Past / Present / Future Tim Stearns Senior Energy Policy Specialist Washington State Department of Commerce Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov

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Ocean energy? 2 people costsecuresustainablepollutionportabilityreliability

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Ocean energy ? Growth Need Replace Carbon opportunity 3

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Current usage 85% world use fossil fuels oil/coal/natural gas 8% nuclear 7% renewable biomass/hydroelectric/wind International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2008 20% renewables by 2020 80% carbon reduction by 2050 4

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5 Energy Environment Economy

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6 Americans generally won't acknowledge conflicts and make choices. The cry is for low prices, ample supplies, absolute reliability, clean air, no disfiguring construction projects, local autonomy and national accountability. Great. Unfortunately, there are tensions among all these goals. Paul Samuelson, Washington Post, August 20, 2003

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10 Washington States Energy Profile

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Washingtons emerging challenges State grows 130,000 people per year 1.3 million per decade double < 50 yr 273 to house, feed, employ, transport, educate 300 new megawatts per year Can we double system in 50 years? No new dams sites 15,000 miles lines New subdivision apartment Car culture walkable/bikable communities? Transit additions 12

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Expenditures on Fossil Fuels Washington State: 1999-2008 Excludes fuel taxes, refinery and pipeline costs and profits Sources: EIA, BEA and Sightline 14

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Region Today 11 million people Largest hydrosystem Fossil fuel transportation imported Car based Plenty of inefficiency Centralized generation Gas taxes decline since 1970s Future 20 + million Integrated system Clean fuel biofuels - electric More Locally produced Transit and vehicles Zero energy buildings Distributed Move to tolls & mileage charges 15

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Energy is a Big Part of Greener Jobs Green not end Improve existing uses Efficiency Integration Manage Cleaner inputs Home Food Transportation Buildings Processes 17

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Science of Climate Change is Strong Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 Synthesis Report 18

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19 people heatlightcookingmanufacturingtransportationinformation

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20 WA Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2005) Total = 94.8 million metric tons CO2-equivalent

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21 State Targets - Reduce Emissions Grow Our Economy By 2020 reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels By 2035 reduce emissions to 25% below 1990 levels By 2050 reduce emissions to 50% below 1990 levels By 2020 increase the number of clean energy sector jobs to 25,000 from the 8,400 jobs in 2004 By 2020 reduce expenditures by 20% on fuel imported into the state

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Six Americassix groups or publics beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, motivations, values, policy preferences, behaviors and barriers to action 1. Alarmed16 percent of Americansare eager to get on with solutions 2. Concerned29 percentknow climate change is happening, human caused and serious, but they dont necessarily see the urgency. 3. Cautious25 percent happening natural or human-caused. 4. Disengaged8 percenthave heard of global warming but dont know 5. Doubtful13 percentdont think its happening, or natural. 6. Dismissive8 percentconvinced not happening, hoax or a plot. Listen - values - motivations common ground. 22

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Energy use ^ worldwide Developing countries 1.6 b no access 20% 1b unreliable 1 b lack access to safe water 23

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Energy efficiency Americas highest- priority energy resource Cheap Clean Reliable Secure * Dispersed * Cheaper new 24

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Key efficiency steps Building codes Appliance standards Integrated design hvac/light/processes/envelope Better buildings zero energy / living buildings 25

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26 Region built a 4,000 megawatts of efficiency 1980-2010 at an average cost of 2.2 cents cheaper than wholesale Additional 4,400 average megawatts are available in the Northwest now thru 2030! Growth is about 300 average megawatts per year

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Conservation is Cost-effective Under Many Different Future Scenarios Source: NW Power and Conservation Council - Draft 6 th Plan 28

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29 Renewable Energy

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30 Washingtons First Renewable Revolution Much of WA Post WWII Economy Tied to Inexpensive Renewable Electricity Aluminum Industry Defense Industry Forest Products, Chemical Rural Electrification

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CA: 33% by 2020 Renewable Portfolio Standards State renewable portfolio standard State renewable portfolio goal www.dsireusa.orgwww.dsireusa.org / October 2009 Solar water heating eligible * Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables Includes non-renewable alternative resources WA: 15% by 2020* NV : 25% by 2025* AZ: 15% by 2025 NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops) HI: 40% by 2030 Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 UT: 20% by 2025* CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)* MT: 15% by 2015 ND: 10% by 2015 SD: 10% by 2015 IA: 105 MW MN: 25% by 2025 (Xcel: 30% by 2020) MO: 15 % by 2021 WI : Varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015* OH : 25% by 2025 ME: 30% by 2000 New RE: 10% by 2017 NH: 23.8% by 2025 MA: 15% by 2020 + 1% annual increase (Class I Renewables) RI: 16% by 2020 CT: 23% by 2020 NY: 24% by 2013 NJ: 22.5% by 2021 PA: 18% by 2020 MD: 20% by 2022 DE: 20% by 2019* DC: 20% by 2020 VA: 15% by 2025* NC : 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs) 10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis) VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017 29 states & DC have an RPS 6 states have goals KS: 20% by 2020 OR : 25% by 2025 (large utilities )* 5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities) IL: 25% by 2025 WV: 25% by 2025*

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Were Number 4! Source : American Wind Energy Assoc. (12.31.09) 32 Texas was all caol / oil / gas / nuclear price went down

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Resource Costs: Long Term Source: NW Power and Conservation Council Draft 6 th Plan 33

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Initiative 937 Energy Independence Act Sets the Policy Framework for Utility Development of Renewable Electricity 3% of Total Load by 2009 9% by 2012 15% by 2020 States large electric utilities must develop conservation plans to acquire all cost effective conservation First plan must be completed by Jan. 1, 2010 and set targets for 2010-2012 biennium 34

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35 Bioenergy Development Biodiesel Facilities Anaerobic Digesters Research on Alternative Feedstocks Bioenergy Biopower Bioproducts biofuels Biomass CHP Get Beyond waste less in the landfill

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Not in My Backyard ! ! I Gregoire approves wind-power project 36 Banana - build absolutely nothing anywhere near anything or anyone

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Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics 37 Interconnected / competitive / changing world

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"In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable." General Dwight D. Eisenhower 43

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A successful state energy strategy balance goals to: Maintain competitive energy prices Meet environmental goals Be sustainable Increase competitiveness 44

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1.Policy 2.Mandates - create markets 3.Tax incentives 4.regulation 5.Leverage partners a.Private sector b.Federal government Framework for success - alignment

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Clean Energy Leadership Council Advisory group of clean energy industry leaders Charged How does the state build its clean energy industry? Four major opportunity areas Smart Grid Energy Efficiency Green building and the built environment Sustainable biomass, biofuels, Bioproducts Major study by Navigant Consulting Fall 10 46

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Align Core Mission Grow and improve jobs in Washington Align Policies and Execution Policy and Innovation Unit within Commerce Sector Lead

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Ocean renewables Up to 10% of the nations energy supply Hydrokinetic wave & tidal Off shore wind 20% renewables by 2030 20% of that from off shore wind Potential 2500 terra watts of off shore wind deep 855 tw 30-60 meters 603 tw 0-30 meters Wave 250 tw Tidal & stream 115 Current 50 tw Ocean thermal conversion 89 tw 48

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Many technologies being explored 49

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Issues with Marine energy End of the line become on ramps Washington Coast very deep Favor floating Salt water is very harsh environment Challenge to moor cables Immature technologies High cost compared to alternatives Resource conflicts Shipping Harvesting Endangered species 50

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Bigger threats to coast threats Climate change Sea level changes More extreme weather Change in ownership Access Economic challenges Education New industries needed compatible Opportunities Better information Monitoring studies Rebuild infrastructure fish friendly New industry Jobs Energy sales taxes 52

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Marine spatial planning http://www.msp.wa.gov/ Understand create a vision Map - monitor Economic activities Natural processes ocean food chain Infrastructure marine / terrestrial Set priorities Invest smart repair opportunities 53

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Whats on the Horizon? 1.Will natural gas have a new (old) role? 2.Have high gasoline prices (and the recession) permanently altered demand? 3. When will be have a price on carbon? Can we massively increase investment in efficiency? 4. What are the next big technological breakthroughs? Electric vehicles Next generation biofuels Inexpensive photovoltaics Zero energy buildings 54

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-$ Savings -New services -Reliability -Security -Efficiency -Environment -Safety Smart Energy 55

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Key Trends/Observations - Energy Building Energy Efficiency Largely driven by building codes and appliance standards Moving toward more efficient building with generation included Best building practices integrate envelope, hvac, lighting and occupants Efficiency activity driven by utility rebates, programs and public investment Transportation Electrification Washington State is involved in one of the largest demonstration of electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, energy storage (batteries) Key challenge will be integrating with the existing electric system Creating opportunities in Software, Composites, Smart Grid Wind Energy State is working with companies to capture more of the wind value chain spare parts, operations, maintenance and training East central, Southeast and the Gorge continue to draw development. Diverse partners coming together for the worlds largest wind tradeshow. Manufacturers attempting to apply excess capacity to this new sector 56

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57 Smart Grid Region involved in the largest smart grid demonstration project Grid investments will be key to integrating renewable energy Biofuels / bioeconomy Significant aviation biofuel project to fulfill 15% of Seatacs usage Public fleets expanding use; nearing 20% on-road use in western WA State Energy /Strategy / Clean Energy Leadership Council Analyzing all fuels and sectors Retain hydro power advantage clean & cost-effective Innovate new technologies and approaches Build on the regions strength

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Reinvent fire Produce Transmit Use 58

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59 Contact Tim Stearns Senior Energy Policy Specialist Washington State Department of Commerce Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov 206-256-6121 www.commerce.wa.gov/energy

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