1

Using tomorrow’s consumers to launch tomorrow’s products

Guy KemplayUK Head of Segmentation & PositioningTNS

fail in year oneof new brands

Source: TNS Worldpanel

85

60

52

41.5

34

31

13

Product fits well market needs

Product fits in well with internal culture

Products superior technology

Management support

Good use of adequate NPD process

Favourable competitive environment

Team structure

Are you doing your homework?

Factors that contributed to successful product

Main causes of new product success:

Source: Booz Allen & Hamilton

Achieving Disruptive Innovation

Wikipedia definition:

A disruptive technology or disruptive innovation is a technological innovation, product, or service that eventually overturns the existing dominant technology or status quo product in the market.

- You won’t get there with ‘average consumers’

- And Early Adopters might just fuel the next fad

- For a real chance at step-changing the market in a way that could lead to sustainable growth…… change who you are talking to….

- Get alongside your category’s Future Shapers

When launching new products, Future Shapers have a larger and more enduring impact than Early Adopters

Source: 2005 UK Carbonated Soft Drinks study

30.7%

29.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Average Trial

12.0%

15.2%Average Trial

+ Retention

Future Shapers Early Adopters

6.8%

10.2%Average Trial + Retention +

Recommendation

Future Shapers are 51% MORE LIKELY to Meaningfully Adopt

Future Shapers and word of mouth – a big impact!

“In the last week, have you spoken to someone about a brand” % saying “yes”

UK

FutureShapers

AverageConsumer

87

58

2.67

1.40

Number of brands spoken about yesterday Mean no. of brands, based on all respondents

Future Shapers are more engaged!

58

42

42

25

21

17

42

79

59

78

40

30

30

56

0 20 40 60 80 100

Forwarded ads

Posted image / photos

Posted on message board

Downloaded podcast

Made own website

Contributed to blog

Visited blog

% ever done

Future Shapers

Total sample

% who have ever…

Future Shapers are the engines of brand growth…

Brands

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Per

An

nu

m B

ran

d G

row

th/D

ecli

ne

Weak amongst future-influential

Strong amongst future-influential

Strong correlation (0.77) between strength among future-influential

consumers and brand growth

Attracting Early Adopters is not a reliable route to growth

Weak amongst Early Adopters

Strong amongst Early AdoptersAdoption Index

Weak correlation (0.24) between strength among Early Adopters

and brand growthPer

An

nu

m B

ran

d G

row

th/D

ecli

ne

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%Brands

Good ideas get shot downGood ideas get shot down

Ahead of their timeMass market not

ready

Safe “me-too” concepts get progressedSafe “me-too” concepts get progressed

Easy to say yes toBut will struggle to

cut through

Avoiding the PIT (Predictable, Incremental innovation Trap)

Concept Opportunity Map: The wave analogy

Future Opportunity Index

Pu

rch

ase

Inte

nt

exc

eed

s A

ctio

n S

tan

dar

dP

urc

has

e In

ten

t fa

lls

sho

rt

of

Act

ion

Sta

nd

ard

Weak amongst Future Shapers

Strong amongst Future Shapers

Missed the wave Ride the wave

Create the waveWhat wave?

Keeping alive great ideas: Hershey USA

Hershey are not short on ideas

In fact they have too many …. and so use regular quantitative screening to help prioritise which concepts to move forward with

These tests show which concepts will most likely succeed in today’s market

BUT they will NOT identify concepts that are ahead of the market and offer great opportunities for sustained growth in tomorrow’s market.

So some great ideas may be lost?

The solution – Hershey now routinely incorporate FutureView into their concept screening to identify the future potential of ideas as well as the ‘today potential’

202 Hershey Concepts from 2006/7

Future Opportunity Index

Pu

rch

ase

Inte

nt

exc

eed

s A

ctio

n S

tan

dar

dP

urc

has

e In

ten

t fa

lls

sho

rt

of

Act

ion

Sta

nd

ard

Weak amongst Future Shapers

Strong amongst Future Shapers

Re-think these concepts: are they really such a good idea?

Ahead of the market ideas that could step-change the market and leapfrog the competition

Mature Opportunities

Greater than average importance today BUT less relevant to Future Influencers - these will continue to be ‘mandatories’

but do not offer potential for differentiated long-term growth

Power Opportunities

Greater than average importance today AND more relevant to Future Influencers - these are the attributes that most guarantee future relevance

and offer strong opportunities for growth

Niche Opportunities

Less than average importance today AND less relevant to Future Influencers - these

are the attributes that support smaller opportunities today, and which are less

likely to grow in the future

Emergent Opportunities

Less than average importance today BUT more relevant to Future Influencers - these are the attributes that offer NEW opportunities for growth – they may be

small at first but will likely become more relevant to the mass market with time

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

FO Index

Att

rib

ute

Im

po

rtan

ce

Weaker future-influence

Stronger future influence

Identifying Evolving Needs……

Identifying Evolving Needs……

Niche Opportunities Emergent Opportunities

Creamy

Good taste

Enjoyable texture

Nice color

Rich flavor

Right amount sugar

Right amount fatRight amount calories

Sweet

Have a lot of fruit

Have real fruit

Great variety of flavors

Contains protein

Contains vitamin A

Contains vitamin D

Contains vitamin B

Rich in calcium

No preservatives

No artificial colors

No high fructose corn syrup

Only natural ingredients

Organic ingredients

High quality ingredients

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

FO Index

To

p 2

bo

x i

mp

ort

ance

%

Weaker future-influence

Stronger future influence

Mature Opportunities Power Opportunities

16

A fundamental, but often overlooked fact:

Not all consumers are equal, some lead, while others follow…..

We need to remember this in concept testing